Foodgrain price stabilization: Implications of private storage and subsidized food distribution

Through simulation exercises, this paper explores the implications of private storage and subsidized distribution of foodgrain for price stabilization policies in India. A multi-market equilibrium approach is used to incorporate the simultaneity in the determination of supply and demand for the three major cereals, namely, rice, wheat, and coarse cereals. The policy implications of the results obtained are relevant to the current debate on agricultural policy reforms in India.     

WTO贸易政策对中国林产品贸易政策的影响

以世界贸易组织原则为核心的国际贸易政策越来越多地影响着各种贸易行为和贸易政策制定。林产品贸易是一个国家国际贸易总和的一部分 ,对许多发展中国家来说 ,林产品的进出口蕴藏着极有经济价值的潜能并将为其服务。为适应多边自由贸易体制 ,阐述了WTO贸易政策的一般规范与扩展 ,分析了其对中国林产品贸易政策的影响以及我国林产品贸易面对WTO的贸易政策所应采取的战略对策。     

我国商品住宅价格调控政策效果研究

1998年以来,我国房地产行业发展迅速,并逐步成为国民经济的支柱产业,极大地推动了我国的经济增长。但房价的过快增长也增加了人们的生活压力,并对经济运行造成不利影响。为了抑制房价的过快增长,国家推出了一系列的调控政策,包括金融政策、土地政策和税收政策。2010年政府推出了限购政策,通过抑制需求来控制房价。研究表明:1998至2002年的调控政策取得了较好的效果;2003至2008年调控效果不佳;2008年底至2009年政府并没有对房价进行有力调控;2009年末至2012年初,限购令的效果非常明显。     

An econometric model of the agricultural sector of the Indian economy

The interrelationships between production, consumption, and stocks are studied in an interdependent framework for two groups of agricultural commodities, namely foodgrains and nonfoodgrains, with a view to obtain policy guidelines for agricultural growth. The model is formulated with aggregate information over the period 1951–1975 and both static and dynamic simulation along with multiplier analysis are carried out to assess the performance of the model. The study reveals that if there had been no PL 480 aid from the U.S. imports, foodgrain prices would have been higher than observed prices. Ex-ante forecasts to 1985 suggest some need for adequate planning with regard to stockbuilding.     

Macroeconomic consequences of alternative trade policy options

This paper presents a real stock flow model capable of simulating the consequences of alternative policies—currency adjustment or various forms of protection undertaken in combination with changes in fiscal stance — designed to remove imbalances in external trade. A range of parameters was chosen to describe the response of money wages to price changes and also the extent to which other countries retaliate. Parameters describing the other responses of the system are chosen so as roughly to correspond with econometric findings. The main purpose of the present paper is to introduce a method of analysis and no strong conclusions about policy are drawn.     

Alternate adjustments to external shocks in Hungary

A multisector computable general equilibrium model is used to evaluate Hungary's response to the external price shocks in the 1970s. The model incorporates characteristics of Hungary's reformed socialist economy. The results show that although the deterioration in terms of trade was important, the policies of insulation of the economy and increases in investment had a much larger detrimental impact on the trade balance. The existence of planned CMEA trade reduced the effects of the price shocks on the trade deficit. Export promotion by means of higher export subsidies would not have been effective to reduce the trade deficit in Hungary.     

Reorganizing Social Policies through Social Partnerships: Greece in European Perspective

In postwar Western Europe social policies in the wider sense relied in many countries on neo‐corporatist policies of implementation. Since the 1980s such policies have ceased to be as dominant as they used to be, being associated with what has been called “policy communities” and “policy networks”. As far as the reforms pursued by many countries in order to readjust their economies and labour markets are concerned, significant shifts of such a kind were observed. Illustrations of these trends are presented in a comparative section. We attempt to demonstrate the dual structures of social policy formation and implementation, i.e. neo‐corporatist and network/policy community policies, and to discuss the “how” of such policies, i.e. their “raison d’être” and their “real world” enforcement. Against a background of various semi‐corporatisms and adversarial trade union politics, Greece is trying at the moment to adopt this pattern in several social policy areas, though this is not yet quite visible. Neo‐corporatism is also enhanced. We attempt to show where neo‐corporatism is tried (e.g. certain “social dialogue” structures) and where policy communities are encouraged (e.g. public health, local social policies, etc.). Sometimes the boundaries between the two systems are blurred, with some social dialogue committees appearing as quasi‐policy communities. Finally we endeavour to examine the outcomes of such policies and to see their inner logic against the theoretical background. The concept of multilevel governance as a wider policy instrument which incorporates both the above systems is of special interest here.     

A small open economy model applied to an evaluation of Canadian energy policies using 1980 data

This paper describes an applied general equilibrium model for policy evaluation in the small open price-taking economy case. We use the approach to analyze the effects of Canadian energy price policies. The net outcome in terms of national welfare depends on two separate effects. Consumer and producer prices set below world prices result in over-consumption and under-production of energy, and welfare loss. Producer prices of energy set below world prices reduce the factor returns accruing to owners of resources in Canada, many of whom are foreigners. Our results portray the rent transfer effect against foreigners as the dominant effect of these policies. Removing price controls is a nationally welfare worsening change, since the increased rents transferred to foreigners more than outweigh the welfare gain.     

Food security, consumption diversification and foreign exchange balances in Indonesia: Results from a multi-commodity simulation

Many countries adopt economic development strategies, within which an important element is the maintenance of low and stable food prices. In Indonesia, this is achieved principally through government subsidies to consumers of imported rice, the total cost of which fluctuates considerably from year to year, depending on world price movements and domestic production performance. Higher and possibly less stable domestic food prices appear inevitable in Indonesia, however, as the spectre of reduced oil revenues increases the government's concern with the cost of its food policy. Results from a stochastic simulation model of the agricultural sector show that the food price risk to which consumers and producers would be exposed in the absence of the stabilizing component of Indonesia's food policy would be considerable, rendering this component an unlikely area for significant change. A viable policy option appears to be the continuance of rice and wheat price stabilization, but with a graduated increase in the relative price of rice, reaching a total of 10% by 1985. Such a policy could result in net self-sufficiency in foreign exchange from staple food trade by 1990 and an improvement in aggregate economic surplus, although the expected decade improvement in food-energy consumption per capita would fall from 10% to 8%.     

Central banks’ priorities and the left/right partisanship of exchange rates

This study argues that when central banks subordinate all policy goals to achieving price stability greater central bank independence encourages left-wing governments to seek greater exchange rate stability. Such central bank policy priorities make the Left's preferred distributive policies more dependent on the effectiveness of fiscal policy, which under high capital mobility increases with exchange rate stability. In contrast, right-wing governments put greater emphasis on market adjustments and price stability. Hypotheses are tested by estimating the sensitivity of exchange rate variation to partisanship, central bank independence, and the salience of price stability, using a Prais-Winsten estimator and Instrumented Variables, run on pooled cross-section time-series data from 22 OECD countries during 1990-2004.     

转变外贸增长方式下的政策调整分析

加入世界贸易组织以来,我国外贸伴随着全球化的不断升级而快速增长,但总体贸易格局以加工贸易为主要方式、外商投资企业为主要出口主体、中低技术机械电子类产品为主要出口商品类别的特征并未发生根本的变化。这种局面使得我国外贸顺差不断扩大,外部失衡严重,贸易摩擦日益增多,同时过高贸易占款也加大了国内流动性过剩和人民币升值压力。因此,要改变这种贸易格局,转变贸易增长方式,政府就必须不断深化对相关外贸政策组合的调整,引导这种转变。文章从转变外贸增长方式内涵出发,对各种政策调整的依据、目标、影响进行分析,从而提出优化政策组合的各种措施。     

Trade and innovation policies: Coexistence and spillovers

The debate over trade’s role in growth and inequality in recent years seems to center on the question of whether the gains from trade are worth the disruption from necessary adjustments. In particular static gains from trade for advanced economies are generally estimated to be small, while empirical evidence around growing employment and inequality challenges suggest trade’s role may be larger than previously thought, though still only one of many contributing factors. The focus on static gains though likely understates substantially the dynamic gains, as trade’s role in spurring faster economic growth, in both developed and developing countries through competitive and innovative forces. The dynamic, competition and innovation angle suggests a need for industrial policies to be revisited and examine how spillovers play out in the global economy. At the same time significant technological disruption is occurring through digital technology, big data, and machine learning/AI techniques that often require advanced capabilities and have significant competition implications. In recent COVID-19 pandemic policy responses governments have dramatically increased spending and liquidity to support stressed firms and households and encouraged many countries to consider strategic efforts to build certain domestic capabilities with the aim of reducing dependence on trade for emergency related goods and services. This paper provides insights on the specific role of innovation policies, and they differ from and are similar to traditional industrial policies, and what that might mean for future trade rules.     

United States trade and possible restrictions in high-technology products

This paper assesses the changing U.S. competitive position in high-technology products, and examines reasons for changes. It then inquires into the potential value of restrictive trade policies for promoting the U.S. interest in this sector, including mutual restrictions between the U.S., the EC, and Japan. The paper shows that the U.S. market share in most high-technology products, while still high, is declining. While industrial policy in other countries may have been a facilitating factor in this adverse development, the main explanation appears to lie in changing factor endowments, particularly the marked increase in the human capital/labor endowment ratios of Japan and Germany relative to that of the United States. When considering all the criteria relevant to trade policy, the differences between the high-technology industries bring into question the validity of lumping them into one sector for the purpose of strategic trade policy. Each industry needs to be treated separately. Their main common characteristic is intensity in human capital input. When they are viewed as one sector, a move to redress the declining U.S. lead calls for a domestic rather than a trade policy: massive U.S. investment in human capital and in research and development of the post-sputnik variety.     

Targeting Democracies: Regime Type and America's "Aggressively Unilateral" Trade Policy

Objectives . The American trade policy instrument Section 301 authorizes the president to demand changes in foreign states' trade policies and to fortify these demands with threats of sanctions. I examine the economic and political factors that influence the selection of states as targets for Section 301 proceedings. Methods . I develop an argument connecting a state's regime type to the likelihood that it will be targeted under Section 301. Controlling for other relevant factors, democratic states are predicted to have a higher probability of being targeted. I test the hypothesis in a set of regression models on cross–sectional time series data with both targeting incidence and targeting frequency as dependent variables. Results . States with more open and competitive political systems are more likely to be targeted under Section 301. Of the included variables, only a state's regime type and the size of its trade relationship with the United States have consistently significant effects across alternative model specifications. Conclusions . Section 301 plays on the rivalry between protectionist and export–oriented interests by demanding reductions in trade barriers and backing them up with threats directed against export industries. Industries currently favored by protectionist policies have a higher chance of losing such a political contest in a political system more open to interest–group competition. The institutional form of political competition within a state affects the state's response to international pressure on trade policy.     

Pharmaceutical Pricing in Europe: Weighing up the Options

Rising healthcare costs, particularly pharmaceutical expenditures, have led to the implementation of several pharmaceutical pricing regulations and policies throughout the world. This paper undertakes a critical review of current policies, along with a discussion of alternatives for both on‐patent and off‐patent drug pricing mechanisms. Traditional direct and indirect price controls have failed to balance the objectives of efficiency and equity. Direct price controls do not restrain growth of costs and may not address the need for innovation. Indirect price controls fail to contain costs and do little to create a competitive off‐patent pharmaceutical market. For the on‐patent drug markets, we evaluate the use of profit controls, government purchase or auction of patents and Ramsey pricing. Each of these has its own merit, yet the integration of the often separate price and reimbursement decision‐making processes would seem to hold the most promise for governments and purchasers to obtain value for money. This approach could send signals to the industry to help direct research towards clinically relevant areas.     

International Impacts of protection: model structure and results for FC agricultural policy

A dynamic international commodity trade model is introduced that combines stochastic production with three features: multimarket dynamics, endogenous trade policy behavior, and endogenous stock-holding behavior. The significance of these features is illustrated using versions of the model with each excluded in turn. Their role in policy analysis is examined by using each version to measure the impacts of the grain-meat components of the European Community's Common Agricultural Policy. The absence of each is found to alter significantly the estimated terms of trade, trade volume, and welfare effects. Endogenous stock holding is found to be especially important when insulating trade policies are reprented in the model.     

The US–China trade war and Phase One agreement

The Trump administration changed US trade policy toward China in ways that will take years for researchers to sort out. This paper makes four specific contributions to that research agenda. The first is to carefully mark the timing, definitions, and scale of the products subject to the tariff changes affecting US–China trade from January 20, 2017 through January 20, 2021. One result was each country increasing its average duty on the other to rates of roughly 20 percent, with the new tariffs and counter-tariffs covering more than 50 percent of bilateral trade. The second contribution is to highlight two additional channels through which bilateral tariffs changed during this period that received less research attention. One tariff change is through product exclusions, another is trade remedy policies of antidumping and countervailing duties. The third contribution is to provide an initial exploration into why China fell more than 40 percent short of meeting the goods purchase commitments set out under the first year of the Phase One agreement. The last contribution is to consider additional trade policy actions—involving forced labor, export controls for reasons of national security or human rights, and reclassification of trade with Hong Kong—likely to affect US–China trade beyond the Trump administration.     

CHANGES IN FEMALE ENTRY TO TRADE TRAINING IN SOUTH AUSTRALIA

This study examines whether there were significant changes in the entry of young women to trade training in South Australia as a result of equal opportunities policies and initiatives to change the means of entry to trade training. It surveys the period 1981 to 1984 because that, like the present, was a period of change in education and training arrangements. It looks at women's hold on places in pre-vocational courses and apprenticeships in the most male-dominated trade areas and examines in detail the outcomes of the first three Introduction to Trades for Young Women courses in 1982 and 1983. It concludes that they led to only a slight improvement in female participation in trade training. The difficulties these courses faced in articulating with both student income support policies and the selection procedures for pre-vocational courses are discussed. The study demonstrates a marginal increase in the numbers of female apprentices outside hairdressing between 1981 and 1984 and evidence of weak commitment to an effective equal opportunities policy. A brief comparison is made between the situation at the beginning and end of the decade. This suggests that female participation in the most male-dominated trades areas in South Australia was generally lower than the Australian average in those areas, an outcome which must open to question the policy commitment to change.     

Till Death Us Do Part? A Critical Analysis of Obligation and Choice for Spousal Caregivers

Research demonstrates a significant number of carers identify obligation or lack of other alternatives as the reasons they undertake informal care. By utilizing critical discourse analysis, this research explores choice for informal caregivers in contemporary Australian social policy. Analysis demonstrates increasing shifts in policy toward choice in consumer-directed care, a feature absent for those who provide care. Familial care is a central pillar of Australian social policy, as it is in many liberal and conservative welfare regimes. Analysis reveals that these core social policies are fundamentally incongruent, with significant implications for individuals and social work practice.     

Assessing non-tariff barriers in Syria

International trade in Syria is highly regulated through a combination of tariffs and non-tariff barriers. At 8% of the value of imports on average, effective tariffs are relatively low. However, non-tariff barriers to trade actually make Syria's trade restrictiveness very high. Comparing world and domestic prices of imports indeed suggests that non-tariff barriers increase the domestic price of imported goods by 17% on average, notably the result of significant quantitative restrictions. Using a computable general equilibrium model, the costs of NTBs on the Syrian economy are assessed. Simulations suggest that reallocation gains resulting from a complete removal of NTBs could be substantial. Accordingly, the key message from the analysis is that trade reform if it focuses only on tariff reduction will have limited growth benefits. On the contrary, if the Government abolishes the widespread non-tariff barriers to trade, including the elimination of quantitative trade restrictions, trade policy can become the central instrument to redress Syria's growth prospects.