Judgmental Adjustments of Previously Adjusted Forecasts*

Forecasts are important components of information systems. They provide a means for knowledge sharing and thus have significant decision‐making impact. In many organizations, it is quite common for forecast users to receive predictions that have previously been adjusted by providers or other users of forecasts. Current work investigates some of the factors that may influence the size and propensity of further adjustments on already‐adjusted forecasts. Two studies are reported that focus on the potential effects of adjustment framing (Study 1) and the availability of explanations and/or original forecasts alongside the adjusted forecasts (Study 2). Study 1 provides evidence that the interval forecasts that are labeled as “adjusted” are modified less than the so‐called “original/unadjusted” predictions. Study 2 suggests that the provision of original forecasts and the presence of explanations accompanying the adjusted forecasts serve as significant factors shaping the size and propensity of further modifications. Findings of both studies highlight the importance of forecasting format and user perceptions with critical organizational repercussions.     

Performance measurement: a critical analysis of the literature with respect to total quality management

This paper represents a comprehensive review of the literature on performance measurement. The roadmap used for this analysis is from the evolution of performance measurement, to the way it is currently defined and how it is applied from a corporate-wide perspective. One useful contribution of this review is a special focus on performance measurement in a non-financial, non-traditional sense. This discussion was further amplified by referring to newly developed tools and techniques and by highlighting critical factors of success in the application of performance measurement.
The key factors from this literature review reveal that, although interest in the area of measurement is growing significantly, this is not reflected by the tangible and credible experiences in the organizations concerned. There is a concurrent view amongst various writers that there are both hard and soft issues reflecting, for instance, the lack of strategic thinking and goal clarity, putting measurement systems in the driving seat and therefore trusting unreliable designs and not focusing on the true ethos of modern measurement towards continuous improvement and thereby not engaging employees and neglecting the culture change aspects.
The paper concludes by highlighting the dearth in research in the important field of performance measurement and, in particular, the design and implementation of performance measurement systems that cover all the essential aspects through an integrated perspective.     

Earthquake Beliefs and Adoption of Seismic Hazard Adjustments

This study investigated the prevalence of both accurate and erroneous earthquake-related beliefs among a sample of Southern California college students and the relationship between their endorsement of earthquake beliefs and adoption of seismic hazard adjustments. In addition, the study examined the effects of an experimental earthquake education program and the impact of need for cognition on this program. The data revealed a significant degree of agreement with earthquake myths, a generally low level of correlation between earthquake beliefs and the level of hazard adjustments, and a significant effect of hazard information on the endorsement of accurate earthquake beliefs and increases in hazard adjustment. Compared with the "Earthquake Facts (Only)" format, an "Earthquake Myths versus Facts" format was slightly more useful for dispelling erroneous beliefs. Further, there was a tendency for those who were high in need for cognition to have higher levels of hazard adjustment. Finally, there was weak support for the hypothesis that those who were low in need for cognition would develop more accurate earthquake beliefs and higher levels of hazard adjustment in the "Earthquake Myths versus Facts" information condition.     

如何创新干部平级调整工作

干部平级调整是干部选拔任用工作的重要组成部分,也是加强领导班子建设的一个重要方面。特别是在当前干部职数管理越来越严,领导职数趋于减少,干部配备又相对较多的情况下,要调顺配强班子,选准用好干部,尽可能实现班子的最佳组合,充分调动广大干部的工作积极性,努力为干部的成长创造良好条件,除一些缺职岗位必须提拔安排外,更多的需要通过干部平级调整来实现。因此,在新的形势下,坚持扩大民主、做好干部平级调整工作显得越来越重要。这既是深化干部人事制度改革、优化班子结构、增强班子活力的现实要求,又是加快干部成长、发挥干部才能的有…     

How customer satisfaction with respect to price and quality affects customer retention: an integrated approach considering nonlinear effects

There is consensus in the marketing literature that satisfaction of customers concerning the perceived quality and pricing of products or services is critical for customer retention. In contrast, there is lack of empirical evidence about the exact functional relationship. Using parametric and nonparametric regression, this contribution empirically investigates whether and to what extent nonlinear effects of and interaction effects between both satisfaction dimensions affect customer retention. The empirical results do not only reveal complex nonlinear effects for those satisfaction-retention relationships, respectively, but also indicate strong interaction effects of both satisfaction dimensions on customer retention. Furthermore, nonparametric approaches prove to be more flexible than parametric approaches to model complex interactions.     

Capitalized investments with entry and exit options and paradoxical tax effects

Investment decisions are often characterized by uncertainty, irreversibility, and timing flexibility. We use a binomial model to investigate the interdependencies of effects from profit taxation and both an option to delay and an option to abandon on investment decisions. We show that increasing the tax rate can lead to paradoxical tax effects, i.e. it may foster an investor’s willingness to invest. By contrast, if we abstract from the abandonment option, such paradoxical effects cannot be identified. Hence, we show that paradoxical tax effects can be caused by an abandonment option. Our results are helpful for investors facing risky investment opportunities and for improving typical valuation approaches.     

Corporate social responsibility: a strategic and profitable response to entry?

This paper investigates whether an incumbent has an incentive to introduce corporate social responsibility (CSR) activities only as a response to entry by a competitor, i.e., the incumbent would eschew CSR if left uncontested. We assume that the entrant cannot provide CSR at least at the outset for two reasons: (1) it would not be credible due to its lack of recognition and (2) due to high fixed cost to pay e.g., for licensing. More precisely, this paper shows that monopolistic firms can have indeed the incentive to introduce CSR activities only as a response to entry. Therefore, increased competition can turn a firm “green”, providing a “win–win” for business as well as for the environment.     

Institutional Adjustments and Strategic Planning Action: The Case of Victorian Wildfire Planning

This paper provides a critical analysis of the way that practice-based strategic planning in terms of disaster risk reduction occurs, highlighting the drivers and facilitators of change. It documents these in the context of other governmental systems. Examination the changes to wildfire planning policy in Victoria, Australia, following the 2009 Bushfire Season, provides an explanation of the realpolitik of policy formation, management and change, as well as inter-governmental interactions. The findings document and discuss the conditions and reasons for strategic change occurring in the case study.     

Emotional labour profiles: Associations with key predictors and outcomes

ABSTRACT

The present study examines how three emotional labour strategies (hiding feelings, faking emotions, and deep acting) combine within different profiles of workers among two samples characterised by different types and intensity of customer contact. In addition, this research investigates the role of perceived workload as well as perceived organisational support, supervisor support, and colleagues support in the prediction of profile membership. Finally, this research also documents the relation between emotional labour profiles and adaptive and maladaptive work outcomes (job satisfaction, work performance, emotional exhaustion, sleeping problems, psychological detachment, and counterproductive work behaviours). Latent profile analysis revealed three similar emotional labour profiles in both samples. Results also showed the most desirable levels on all outcomes to be associated with Profile 3 (Low Emotional Labor/Low Surface Acting and Moderate Deep Acting), followed by Profile 2 (Moderate Emotional Labor/Moderate Surface Acting and High Deep Acting) and Profile 1 (High Emotional Labor), with most comparisons being statistically significant in both samples. In contrast, a more diversified pattern of findings was observed in the prediction of profile membership. For instance, perceived colleagues support did not predict membership into any of the profiles, while supervisor support predicted an increased likelihood of membership into Profile 3 relative to Profiles 1 and 2.     

Robust multi-criteria sorting with the outranking preference model and characteristic profiles

We present a new multiple criteria sorting approach that uses characteristic profiles for defining the classes and outranking relation as the preference model, similarly to the Electre Tri-C method. We reformulate the conditions for the worst and best class assignments of Electre Tri-C to increase comprehensibility of the method and interpretability of the results it delivers. Then, we present a disaggregation procedure for inferring the set of outranking models compatible with the given preference information, and use the set in deriving, for each decision alternative, the necessary and possible assignments. Furthermore, we introduce simplified assignment procedures and prove that they maintain a no class jumps-property in the possible assignments. Application of the proposed approach is demonstrated by classifying 40 land zones in 4 classes representing different risk levels.     

企业的进入与研究开发策略

现有文献大都只考虑企业进入某项目的等待投资的期权. 而实际上,企业进入某项目后, 还具有研究与开发的实物期权. 通过建立新的模型,本文在此考虑了这种研究与开发的实物期 权,分析得出了企业进入某项目的最优时机及进入后进行研究与开发的最优时机,同时也得到 了等待投资和研究与开发这两种实物期权的价值. 进一步得到了企业的最优进入策略与企业 所具有的研究开发期权无关,但该项目的等待投资的期权价值与研究开发期权正相关.     

A systematic and critical review of research on respect in leadership

Respect is an important psychological and interpersonal phenomenon that has been included in various theoretical and empirical approaches to leadership for nearly 70 years. In this systematic and critical review article, we provide a comprehensive summary and critique of theories, definitions, measures, and empirical studies of respect in leadership. We first provide an overview of the historical and theoretical background, including the most common theories, definitions, and measures that inform empirical studies of respect in leadership. Second, we present a systematic literature review of empirical studies on respect in leadership, including a critical evaluation of research designs and statistical analyses that support claims of the validity of various conceptualizations of respect that pertain to the study of leadership. Finally, we offer a new working definition of respect in leadership, and an accompanying conceptual framework which informs a number of recommendations for future theory development, empirical research, and leadership practice.     

面对共同供应商时的市场进入决策

研究了海外零售商在与本土零售商拥有相同供应商的情况下最优的市场进入策略,以及市场进入决策对供应商的定价决策和零售商的采购决策的影响.把进入决策分为3种类型,分别命名为"市场开拓型"、"采购导向型"和"双重收益型".研究发现当企业目标进入的市场规模比原有市场大时,企业的进入决策为"市场开拓型";而当企业的目标进入市场规模比原有市场小时,企业的进入决策为"采购导向型";当两个市场规模接近时,企业的进入决策为"双重收益型".还研究了市场进入成本对企业进入决策的影响.随着进入成本的增加,海外企业选择进入国内市场的可能性越来越小.而且当进入成本足够大的情况下,其进入只能为"市场开拓型"或"采购导向型",即不可能在两个市场同时获益.     

Strangers in a Strange Land: Shock,Disappointment, and Adjustments Experiences of Expatriates in Central Asia

Increasing globalization is driving an increase in diversity and interaction. A more mobile and international workforce frequently requires that individuals try to understand the norms of their “new” society. This paper provides a preliminary exploration of the types of issues and concerns raised by expatriates working in a new foreign environment. In particular, the paper uses a hybrid survey/interview methodology to identify specific issues raised by expatriates working in Kazakhstan, Central Asia.

The age of accountability

The advent of accountability and evidence-based medicine set a new standard, suggesting that new medical technologies should require validation of their safety and effectiveness through controlled studies prior to their broad dissemination. Certainly, the concept of evidence-based medicine appears to be rational, objective, and consistent. However, the process can become extremely messy in its application to coverage decisions. After all, the coverage decision is really one of the most basic elements of health care. The following discussion represents a week in the life of a mythical medical director who is attempting to implement his or her company's evidence-based coverage policies.     

Organizing for the information age - an opportunity going to waste

Many businesses, having grown successfully from energetic and exciting beginnings, start to run into problems when the growth slows down. They become inflexible, unable to adapt and, in the extreme, moribund. Management tends to respond to these problems by trying to treat performance failures in practised, technical ways, rather than adopting a style of bold intervention in the human fabric. Several examples of such interventions are described, and lessons are drawn about success and failure, which lead to a proposed set of principles for rejuvenating organizations. The paper concludes that a high proportion of businesses, by seriously committing themselves to this type of intervention, could become transformed to a higher order of effectiveness, so justifying the subtitle of the paper- 'an opportunity going to waste'.