人口增长和城市化对气候变化的影响

人口增长导致了温室气体排放增加的观点是错误的,因为每个人一生对温室气体排放的贡献千差万别,这取决于他或她的出生环境以及寿命和生活选择。影响温室气体排放的关键因素是消费者数量的增加及其消费方式,而不是人口数量本身。理论上讲,应该按个人和家庭为单位并以其消费对温室气体排放的影响为根据,来确定承担温室气体排放的责任,     

人口增长、城市化对环境的影响——以CO2排放为例

基于1978—2007中国宏观经济时间序列数据,利用协整回归方法和误差修正模型(ECM),实证分析了人口增长、城市化水平、人均GDP和能源强度对CO2排放的影响。结果显示,人口总量、城市化水平、人均GDP和能源强度与CO2排放存在长期均衡关系。长期来看,人口总量对CO2排放量的影响最大,城市化水平其次,人均GDP最小。短期来看,能源强度和人均GDP对CO2排放波动影响较大,而人口总量和城市化水平影响不显著。     

论我国城市化的发展道路

人类社会的城市化发展是一条客观规律。城市化之所以不断向前推进,关键在于生产力的不断提高以及随之而来的商品经济的发展。而城市人口的增加则首先来自于农业人口的转移。当前对城市化的进程出现了种种不同的看法。现在仅就我国的国情,探讨一下我国城市化的发展道路。     

我国人才集聚与城市化水平互动关系的建模研究

城市化进程推动人才集聚水平不断提升,为人才集聚提供了重要平台;人才集聚是城市化水平提升不可或缺的动力和必然结果。我国人才集聚与城市化之间互动关系的量化研究需要借助模型工具,通过对模型信息的深入挖掘．从城市化六大要素角度提出促进我国人才集聚发展的可行性建议。     

中国人口城市化综述

人口城市化在国家社会经济全面发展过程中具有重要作用。21世纪的中国人口城市化正在进入新的发展阶段。随着我国农村生产力水平的提高、工业化进程的加快和产业结构调整的深化,全面推进城市化的条件已经基本成熟。推进中国人口城市化,必须在我国现行城市化方针指导下,既研究世界城市化进程的一般规律,借鉴国际经验;又要结合我国城市化面临的现实国情和基本问题,逐步形成合理的城镇体系,走出符合我国国情,大、中、小城市协调发展的城市化道路。积极稳妥地推进中国人口城市化,实施可持续发展的城市化战略,也是全面建设小康社会的根本要求。     

温室效应:人口要负多大责任?

由于各国经济利益不一致,气候变化谈判博弈艰难。在这种形势下,人口控制对减少温室气体排放的意义,近来被国际社会部分人士及中国政府重新提及,值得关注。自1972年世界环境大会以来,发达国家对世界人口问题的看法发生过180度的转变,否认发展中国家人口快速增长对经济的不利作用,否认人口与环境问题相关的观点,渐成西方学术界主流,由学术界蔓延到西方政府,并深刻影响着发展中国家许多学者的认识。文章论述了人口规模对温室气体排放的影响,试分析了上述西方主流观点在研究方法上存在的问题。目前,中国正进入快速工业化阶段,对庞大人口不断放大的经济、资源、环境影响,本文认为必须有极为清醒的认识。     

甘肃省城市化进程及模式选择

甘肃省城市化进程及模式选择贾洪文如何推进城市化进程，是甘肃省目前亟待解决的重大课题。本文通过对甘肃省城市化进程的具体分析，提出增长及模式，作为城市化道路的现实选择。旨在通过增长极点促进城市和农村地区不断对接，共同发展，从而在一定程度上避免单纯城市“城...     

关于加快我国城市化进程的对策思考

目前,城市化滞后已成为制约我国经济与社会发展中的突出矛盾,必须及时推进城市化进程。大小城市要提高自身的质量和层次;中小城市要发挥自身的特点和优势,重点发展中小企业,集聚乡镇企业,同时加快第三产业发展;小城镇要加快基础设施建设,采取优惠政策吸引农民发展二、三产业。     

中国式现代化可持续发展路径的有益探索——《中国人口城市化与碳减排研究》评析

<正>纵观全球,人口城市化进程虽然是资源集约利用和劳动生产效率提升的过程,与经济社会发展进步相互促进,但城市化带来的碳排放量显著增加,日益加剧全球性气候问题。中国作为世界上拥有十亿级人口的国家之一,作出“实现2030年前碳达峰、2060年前碳中和”(简称“双碳”目标)的重大战略部署,积极承担大国责任。随着人口城市化迅速发展,探讨如何制定有效的人口城市化低碳战略政策是刻不容缓的重要议题。     

我国土地资源配置模式对城镇化影响的实证分析--基于中国省级面板数据（2000-2011）

我国城市化发展是和城市用地规模扩张相伴随的。采用2000—2011年我国31个省市自治区的商品房销售价格和二三产业空间集聚指数的面板数据，构建时刻固定效应模型，结果显示现行土地利益分配体制下，我国土地资源价格的外生推动形成，不利于各项经济要素在城市化进程中的优化配置和自我调适。     

中国城市化与二氧化碳排放量的协整分析

中国经济未来仍将保持良好的发展态势,经济增长的同时常常伴随着城市化过程,含碳能源的消费带动城市化进程的同时,也使得大气中的二氧化碳含量明显增加,发展与环保之间的关系值得权衡。在已有的理论基础上,采用1978～2006年的相关统计数据对中国城市化与含碳能源消费发生的二氧化碳排放量进行协整分析,同时建立误差修正模型,并运用Granger因果关系检验的方法,反映经济发展过程中城市化与二氧化碳排放量之间的规律性变化。城市化与二氧化碳排放量之间存在着长期稳定的均衡关系,二期滞后时,具有协整关系。同时Granger因果关系检验结果表明,中国的城市化进程不同于发达工业化国家,与二氧化碳排放量之间不具有理论上的双向因果关系。二期滞后时,城市化是二氧化碳排放量的Granger原因,但后者不是前者的原因,对其不具有反馈效应。     

日本工业化进程中人口因素对碳排放影响研究

近年来发达国家的统计数据显示,居民生活消费的直接与间接能源消耗已超过产业部门,成为碳排放的主要增长点。运用STIRPAT模型,研究日本工业化进程中人口因素对碳排放的影响,从人口与消费视角探讨碳排放问题,将对我国工业化阶段的碳减排起到一定的指导作用。提高低碳技术水平、控制人口规模、引导居民消费模式的合理转变将成为控制工业化进程中碳排放的有效手段。     

人口结构、城镇化与碳排放——基于跨国面板数据的实证研究

文章基于美国、中国、日本、英国等9国1961～2010年的面板数据对人口年龄结构、城镇化与碳排放之间的关系进行实证分析。结果表明,人口规模、人均GDP、二氧化碳排放强度、化石能源占能源消费总量的比重及人口结构与全球碳排放显著相关。此外,人口城镇化率与碳排放的关系呈倒U形,即在人口城镇化的早期会促进二氧化碳的排放,但随着城镇化的进一步扩大则会抑制碳排放;而人口的年龄结构,尤其是人口的老龄化程度对碳排放量的影响则具有U形的特点,即在人口老化的初期由于老年人群的消费模式会减少碳排放,但当人口老龄化进一步加剧后,老年人对医疗护理等方面的需求增多,以致需要更多的经济活动支持这部分开支,因而会造成碳排放的增加。     

Intergenerational transfers in US county-level CO2 emissions, 2007

Research has shown that increases in carbon emissions and resulting climate change are not driven by population size alone, but also associated with industrialization, urbanization, and economic development. Further, industrialization and development may, in part, be driven by changing demographic structure, and in particular the process of population aging. Fluctuations in age composition shape aggregate production and consumption. Viewed through this lens, the carbon dioxide emissions of an analytical unit (county, province, state, nation) can be considered a product of its age composition. This analysis tests several demographic theories of age-specific production and consumption on US county-level carbon dioxide emissions. Using a modified STIRPAT framework, econometric estimates identify a positive correlation between county-level labor force participation and total carbon dioxide emissions. These effects are a result of general economic activity as opposed to growth only in energy intensive industrial sectors, a relationship that is widely hypothesized but under-developed in carbon emission estimates. In addition, results show larger households are associated with lower aggregate emissions, confirming the hypothesis that areas of declining household size will experience higher future emissions. In general, this research demonstrates the importance of adding nuance to emission estimates by integrating demographic dimensions beyond population size and growth.     

Impact of population,age structure,and urbanization on carbon emissions/energy consumption: evidence from macro-level,cross-country analyses

This review summarizes the evidence from cross-country, macro-level studies on the way demographic factors and processes—specifically, population, age structure, household size, urbanization, and population density—influence carbon emissions and energy consumption. Analyses employing time-variant data have produced great variance in population elasticity estimations—sometimes significantly greater than one, sometimes significantly less than one; whereas, cross-sectional analyses typically have estimated population elasticities near one. Studies that have considered age structure typically have used standard World Bank definitions and mostly have found those variables to be insignificant. However, when researchers have considered levels of disaggregation that approximate life-cycle behavior like family size, they have uncovered relationships that are complex and nonlinear. Average household size has a negative relationship with road energy use and aggregate carbon emissions. Urbanization appears positively associated with energy consumption and carbon emissions. Higher population density is associated with lower levels of energy consumption and emissions.     

人口因素对碳排放的影响

我国面临着人口规模扩大、快速城市化、家庭小型化和人口老龄化等多种人口趋势交错并存的局面．这将对我国碳排放产生重要影响。本文通过对相关文献的梳理,发现人口规模的增长、人口的城市化、家庭的小型化等因素都将在不同程度上导致碳排放的增加,而人口老龄化的作用尚不清晰。同时。各类人口因素的作用往往不是独立的,而是相互影响的,从而使其对碳排放的影响更为复杂。考虑到我国面临的复杂人口变化形势以及现有相关研究的不足。本文最后提出了这一领域需要进一步研究的方向。     

Conditions for Maintaining the Sustainable Development Level of EU Member States

For years we have been observing the exponential trend of the economic growth, energy consumption, mineral resources use and greenhouse gas emissions. The human population is exerting an increasing pressure on the environment, which in the highly industrialised regions has lost its natural ability for bio-capacity. The measurement of the member states’ progress in achieving the sustainable development is an integral part of the European Union strategy. The article deals with methods of measuring the level of sustainable development and presents diversification of the EU member states according to the synthetic indicators, such as: domestic material consumption, import dependency, risky external energy supply, diversity index, ecological footprint and total carbon intensity. These determinants affecting potential of the EU states to maintain the achieved level of development in future.     

Energy consumption and limits to global emissions of carbon dioxide: Australia and the world

Attempts to limit global emissions of the greenhouse gases and in particular carbon dioxide must take account of the rapidly increasing populations and the continuing increase in the per-capita consumption of fossil fuels in much of the world. For many countries to achieve the target of a 20% cut in carbon dioxide emissions based on 1988 consumptions, far larger per-capita reductions are necessary. For Australia the cut is approximately 40%. The increases in global emissions of carbon dioxide resulting from the attainment of only very modest per-capita consumptions by the developing countries will far outweigh any reductions achieved by the developed world.Support for this project from the Australian Research Council is gratefully acknowledged.     

Examining the Impact of Demographic Factors on Air Pollution

This study adds to the emerging literature examining empirically the link between population size, other demographic factors and pollution. We contribute by using more reliable estimation techniques and examine two air pollutants. By considering sulfur dioxide, we become the first study to explicitly examine the impact of demographic factors on a pollutant other than carbon dioxide at the cross-national level. We also take into account the urbanization rate and the average household size neglected by many prior cross-national econometric studies. For carbon dioxide emissions we find evidence that population increases are matched by proportional increases in emissions while a higher urbanization rate and lower average household size increase emissions. For sulfur dioxide emissions, we find a U-shaped relationship, with the population-emissions elasticity rising at higher population levels. Urbanization and average household size are not found to be significant determinants of sulfur dioxide emissions. For both pollutants, our results suggest that an increasing share of global emissions will be accounted for by developing countries. Implications for the environmental Kuznets curve literature are described and directions for further work identified.