Measurement of non-randomness in spatial distributions

Summary The measurement of departure from randomness in spatial distributions has widespread application in ecological work. Several “indices of non-randomness” are compared with regard to their dependence on sample number, sample size and density. Criteria for the best choice of index for specific situations are discussed. A new coefficientC _x is proposed for use with positively contagious distributions and tests of significance are given. WhenC _x and another index (S ²/m−1) are used for positive and negative contagion respectively, values ranging from −1 through 0 (random) to +1 are obtained, regardless of sample number, sample size or density.     

Studies on the spatial distribution pattern of larvae of the mosquito,Anopheles sinensis, in rice fields

Summary The spatial distribution patterns of the population ofAnopheles sinensis larvae were studied in the rice field area in the suburb of Urawa city in Japan, during the summer seasons in 1973 and 1974. The distribution pattern of the larval population within the field, analysed by the m−m regression method, indicated that the basic component of larval distribution was not a group of individuals but a single individual and such components were distributed contagiously over the field. This basic pattern did not change significantly according to developmental stage, census date or field. Therefore, we could describe the distribution pattern of the population in a rice field by the single linear regression, x=0.021+1.339x(r²−0.912). Also, the relation for the whole population in the field area including the five fields could be shown by the linear regression, x=0.049+1.749x(r²−0.959). The value of α remained to be nearly equal to zero, but the value of β became larger than the value for the single-field relation. Such a change in distribution pattern seemed to reflect the greater heterogeneity in conditions among the fields than within individual field. Using the information on the distribution patterns mentioned above, some considerations were given on the sampling plans for mosquito larvae, including samplesize determination and application of sequential methods to estimate population size as well as to classify population level.     

Distribution patterns of and sampling plans forTetranychus urticae Koch (Acarina: Tetranychidae) on roses

Summary I sampledTetranychus urticae Koch (Acarina: Tetranychidae) regularly from four rose gardens in Kyoto and Nara Prefectures in 1988–1990. When mite density was low,T. urticae showed an uneven vertical distribution, being more abundant in the lower third and absent from the upper third of the plants. Mite density was less variable within than between plants, suggesting that a sampling plan which includes more leaves from different plants rather than from different levels of a plant is favourable. Spatial distribution ofT. urticae was nonrandom and followed the negative binomial distribution. In addition, both the Taylor’s power law and the Iwao’s patchiness regression described the distribution well. An empty-sample method for estimating mite density from the proportion of empty sampling units was developed. Sampling plans for determining the sample size required to reach a predetermined precision level, based on this method and by directly counting the mites, were designed. The counting method was more accurate than the empty-sample method. However, when the time factor was taken into account, the latter was more favourable, because it was faster than the former at a density range of 1.5–300 mites leaf⁻¹, which was most commonly encountered in the field.     

The Relationship between Country of Residence, Gender and the Quality of Life in Australian and Taiwanese Midlife Residents

A growing global aging population is presenting more opportunities for health professionals to interact with other cultures. The specific aims of this study were to: (1) compare the quality of life of midlife men and women in Australian and Taiwan; and (2) to explore the impact of country of residence and gender on quality of life. A cross-sectional survey was conducted using census data and a probability proportional sampling (PPS) strategy on a general population of men and women aged 40–59 years-old who live permanently in Taiwan and Australia. The sample consisted of 278 Australians and 398 Taiwanese men and women. Analysis showed that country of residence does have an impact on quality of life with significant differences seen between midlife Australian and Taiwanese men and women (F 4, 666 = 59.31, p < 0.001). The results suggest that midlife Australian men and women have a better quality of life than midlife Taiwanese men and women. The mean score for the four domains of quality of life by gender indicated that midlife women consider that they have a better quality of life than midlife men in both Australia and Taiwan. Midlife Australian men in this study reported they are more dissatisfied with their sleep and rest (χ ² = 10.57, df = 4, p = 0.03) and more dissatisfied with their sexual activities (χ ² = 9.42, df = 4, p = 0.05) in contrast to midlife Australian women. This study has addressed and contributed to the assessment of multi-cultural quality of life research and has important implications for both health providers and policy makers of both countries.     

Spatial pattern indices based on distances between individuals on a line-segment with finite length

Summary Let us consider a strip-wise habitat of line-segment, like a corridor, to simplify the subject mathematically, and assume that the length of the habitat is γ and there aren individuals. Here, we assume that the spatial pattern of the individuals is random if then distances from the left end of the habitat to each individual follow a uniform distribution on the strip. Under such an assumption, the variance of the distances between any two neighbors is represented by the formulanθ ²(n+1)⁻²(n+2)⁻¹ and the variance betweenn+1 distances betweenn individuals from the left end to the right end to the strip, is represented by the formulanθ ²(n+1)⁻²(n+2)⁻¹. These two kinds of variances can be used for determining (1) the spatial pattern of a population on the strip and (2) the spatial structure within the population, by comparison with the variances calculated from the data. Two examples cited from the literature, a cattle population on a pasture and an aphid population on a sycamore leaf, are presented.     

Yearly variation in recruitment and its effect on population dynamics inYoldia notabilis (Mollusca: Bivalvia), analyzed using projection matrix model

Summary Long-term variation in recruitment was estimated by constructing projection matrices for a marine bivalve,Yoldia notabilis, at two stations in Otsuchi Bay, northeastern Japan, and the effects of its variation on population dynamics were examined using a simple matrix model. The matrix model was developed from the Leslie matrix, in which the population growth rate λ was expressed as a function of recruitment rater ₀. The equilibrium recruitment rater _s, or the recruitment rate required to maintain population at constant size (λ=1), was expressed by the reciprocal of the reproductive value of a newly recruited individual. The estimates ofr _s for the field population were lower at the shallower station than at the deeper station, reflecting higher survivorship and fecundity. Past recruitment rate estimated both by the field samplings for 3 years and by the back-calculation from the current age structure for over 10 years showed large yearly variation, ranging between 0 and 58.6×10⁻⁴. The estimates were larger thanr _s, and hence, large enough to increase population size (λ>1) only in approximately one-third of the estimated years. This suggests that the population has been maintained by occasional successful recruitment occurring once every few years.     

Population dynamics of the green leafhopper,Nephotettix virescens Distant (Hemiptera: Cicadellidae) in synchronized and staggered transplanting areas of paddy fileds in Indonesia

Summary The population dynamics ofNephotettix virescens, a vector of rice tungro virus disease was investigated in a synchronized transplanting area at Jatisari (1984–1986), West Java and in a staggered transplanting area at Sidan (1986–1988), Bali, Indonesia. The FARMCOP suction sampler was employed for population censuses ofN. virescens and its natural enemies. The population growth pattern was affected by transplanting pattern: In the staggered transplanting area, the population density increased from the immigrant generation to the first generation, and sharply decrease thereafter, while in the synchronized transplanting area the population density often reached the highest peak in the second generation. The degree of contageousness in the spatial distribution ofN. virescens was negatively correlated with population density of the immigrant generation. Contribution from Indonesia-Japan Joint Program on Food Crop Protection     

Body Image and Quality of Life in a Group of African American Women

African American (AA) women’s preference for a larger body size and underestimation of their body weight may affect the relationship between their body weight and weight-related quality of life (QOL). We wanted to examine the relationship between weight-related QOL and body mass index (BMI) in a sample of overweight AA women. Thirty-three overweight AA women completed a clinic visit to measure height, weight, and complete surveys including the Impact of Weight on Quality of Life-Lite (IWQOL-Lite) and the Stunkard Figure Rating Scale. BMI was calculated using measured height and weight. Correlations and linear regression models were estimated using SAS v 9.1. In this sample, the mean total quality of life score was 78.00 ± 17.68 on a 100 point scale. There was a modest correlation between BMI and total weight-related QOL (r = −0.034, p = 0.053). Body image dissatisfaction was the strongest predictor of total quality of life score (p = 0.04). African American women’s unique cultural perception of body image may play a key role in weight-related QOL.     

Spatial pattern analysis of the incidence of aster yellows disease in lettuce

The degree of aggregation of lettuce plants infected by aster yellows phytoplasma (AYP) was investigated in 12 fields from three experiments. Position of diseased and healthy plants was mapped in a 6–9×12-m section of each field; for most analyses, fields were divided into 10-plant quadrats. Mean disease incidence (p) ranged from 0.01 to 0.30. The frequency of diseased plants was described by the beta-binomial distribution, with an index of aggregation (θ) ranging from 0 to 0.17, positively correlated withp, and generally increasing over time within a field. Distance-class analysis revealed a core-cluster size of only a few plants. However, spatial autocorrelations ofp between quadrats were not significant, indicating that the scale of spatial pattern was small, generally less than 10 plants. An overall measure of aggregation was given by the slope parameter of the binary form of the power law, in which the log of the calculated variance is regressed on the log of the theoretical variance for a binomial distribution. The slope was 1.18 and significantly different from 1. Results for this “simple-interest” disease are interpreted in relation to the persistent transmission of AYP by its aster leafhopper vector.     

Relationship between surplus energy and body weight in fish populations

Summary This paper theoretically analyses the relationship between surplus energy, which is available for either somatic growth or reproduction, and body weight. From the data of metabolism and growth of the biwamasu,Oncorhynchus rhodurus, obtained by Miura et al., a Bernoulli's differential equation is induced to represent the relationship between body weight and the sum of surplus energy and active metabolic rate. Solving this equation gives the amount of surplus energy,f(W_x), as follows:f(W_x) = (αW _x ^1−γ +β^1−γ)^1/(1−γ)−W_x, in which α, β and γ are constants andW _x is body weight at agex. The function is applied to ten fish populations and consequently it is found to be useful for a wider age range and a wider variety of fishes than the conventional function.     

A probabilistic interpretation of the United Nations’ 1995–2005 population projections

I develop probabilistic interpretations for the United Nations’ 10-year population forecasts by comparing 1995 projections for 212 countries to the population sizes reported for 2005. Errors in the estimation of the intrinsic rate of increase, presumably caused by erroneous assumptions about birth, death and/or immigration rates, appear to be more consequential than errors based on inaccurate estimation of the starting, or ‘jump-off’, population size. For only about 20% of the countries did the ‘actual’ 2005 population size fall between the United Nations’ low- and high-variant projections. I propose prediction intervals for country-specific population sizes 10 years in the future of the form [ N_i^￠ (t+10) / k ,  k ·N_i^￠ (t+10) ],[ N_i^{\prime} (t+10) / k , \, k \cdot N_i^{\prime} (t+10) ], where N _i ′(t + 10) is the medium-variant prediction for year t + 10 made in year t, and k is a number that varies with starting population size. Based on the 1995–2005 United Nations’ data, values of k giving 95% coverage range from 1.11 for countries with a population on the order of 10⁹, to 1.45 for countries with a population of 10⁵.     

Binomial sampling plans for estimatingBemisia tabaci populations in cantaloupes

Early season infestations of the sweet potato whitefly,Bemisia tabaci (Gennadius), on cantaloupes,Cucumis melo L., were determined by counts of the number of adults per leaf in fields near Yuma, Arizona. We used these data to develop binomial sampling plans based on the relationship between mean densities of whiteflies per leaf,m, and proportion of leaves infested with more thanI whiteflies,P _I, according to the empirical model lnm=a′+b′ ln[−ln(1−P _I)]. The models were developed for the presence-absence approach (I=0) and for a cutoff value of three whiteflies per leaf (I=3). Four independent data sets were used to evaluate the models. Both methods yielded reliable predictions at low infestation levels, but some of the higherm values were overestimated. As the tentative economic threshold forB. tabaci is three adults per leaf, which corresponds to lowP _I values, results of the binomial sampling were satisfactory for pest management purposes.     

Use of the regression of mean crowding on mean density for estimating sample size and the transformation of data for the analysis of variance

Summary An approximate method for estimating the sample size in simple random sampling and a systematic way of transformation of sample data are derived by using the parameters α and β of the regression of mean crowding on mean density in the spatial distribution per quadrat of animal populations (Iwao, 1968). If the values of α and β have been known for the species concerned, the sample size needed to attain a desired precision can be estimated by simply knowing the approximate level of mean density of the population to be sampled. Also, an appropriate variance stabilizing transformation of sample data can be obtained by the method given here without restrictions on the distribution pattern of the frequency counts. Contribution from the Entomological Laboratory, Kyoto University No. 418. Contributions from JIBP-PT No. 52. Aided in part by a grant from the Ministry of Education for the special project research, ‘Studies on the dynamic status of biosphere’.     

The population census of Northern Nigeria 1952: Problems and results

A brief survey of censuses previously taken in Northern Nigeria makes clear by comparison the importance of the 1952 Census in the acquisition of demographic data. Some of the problems of organising and conducting the census are considered.

The analysis of the census results pays special attention to the pattern of population density but consideration is also given to age and sex structure, occupations, tribal data, literacy and religions. Shortcomings and omissions in the census, particularly the absence of any information on migration, are noted.

The conclusion stresses the importance of the 1952 Census as a basis for future demographic studies ; the evidence for an increasing population but the absence of vital statistics to explain this ; the need for much further detailed analysis to be undertaken of the data in the 1952 Census.     

Drawing statistical inferences from historical census data, 1850–1950

Virtually all quantitative microdata used by social scientists derive from samples that incorporate clustering, strati cation, and weighting adjustments (Kish 1965, 1992). Such data can yield standard error estimates that differ dramatically from those derived from a simple random sample of the same size. Researchers using historical U.S. census microdata, however, usually apply methods designed for simple random samples. The resulting p values and confidence intervals could be inaccurate and could lead to erroneous research conclusions. Because U.S. census microdata samples are among the most widely used sources for social science and policy research, the need for reliable standard error estimation is critical. We evaluate the historical microdata samples of the Integrated Public Use Microdata Series (IPUMS) project from 1850 to 1950 in order to determine (1) the impact of sample design on standard error estimates, and (2) how to apply modern standard error estimation software to historical census samples. We exploit a unique new data source from the 1880 census to validate our methods for standard error estimation, and then we apply this approach to the 1850–1870 and 1900–1950 decennial censuses. We conclude that Taylor series estimation can be used effectively with the historical decennial census microdata samples and should be applied in research analyses that have the potential for substantial clustering effects.     

Modelling the effects of population aggregation on the efficiency of insect pest control

Summary A methodology is developed to assess the effects of spatial distribution on the efficiency of insect pest control. This methodology is especially applicable to pest control methods whose efficiency of action depends either positively or negatively on pest density It is applied here to the sterile insect technique and pheromone trapping for male annihilation, which both depend negatively on density. This methodology relies on quantifying clumps of various size and then relating this to efficiency of control and predicting the total pest production given the information on clump sizes and efficiency of control for each clump size. It is found that control is about four times as difficult for a population that is highly clumped (k of the negative binomial distribution=0.25) as for a regularly dispersed population.     

The Association Between Perceived Spirituality, Religiosity, and Life Satisfaction: The Mediating Role of Self-Rated Health

This study examined the mediating role of self-perceived health between perceived spirituality, religiosity, and life satisfaction among a stratified, random sample of college students, while controlling for gender. Although both models displayed excellent fit criteria, the perceived spirituality and life satisfaction model was fully mediated by self-perceived health χ² (n=459, 4) = 1.64, p=0.80, CFI =0.99, TLI=0.99), and the perceived religiosity and life satisfaction model was partially mediated by self-perceived health χ² (n=459, 10) = 22.29, p=0.01 CFI = 0.99, TLI = 0.99). Both models were equal for men and women. Students who describe themselves as spiritual (or religious) are likely to report greater self-perceived health and greater self-perceived health likely influences life satisfaction for both men and women. Results preliminarily support the contention that life satisfaction is related to differing reported health status, whether physical or mental, and that life satisfaction may be influenced by religiosity and spirituality engagement. Implications for colleges and universities are discussed.     

Investigation into the edge effect by use of capture-recapture data in a vole population

Summary A substantial explication of the edge effect has been attempted by use of capture-recapture data for a vole population (Microtus montebelli), gathered intwo plots of 100×100 m or less during 12 days, cheked twice daily, in August 1970; the sample was quite sufficient for the aim. The edge effect as guessed by increased catch per trap is usually suspected to ensue from range-settlers in the outside boundary strip of a plot and immigrants. But by a theoretical analysis I could attain a tentative conclusion that no increased catch per trap will occur unless any invasion takes place. Then it follows that, apart from the effect of invasion, the role of the adjoining outside settlers in the edge effect is essentially required to be studied in the light of knowledge on the truth of size and shift in home range. The variation in range behavior for 183 adult voles, captured 6 times or more, could be grouped into eight types, of which the range-conservative type possessed 52% of the sample and the group of the type was justly utilized for giving averages of range size. Besides, it was seen from the observed frequency of types that a considerable number of immigrants onto the census plot were induced perhaps being allured by trap baits, but the majority of them proved to be assigned to the voles that have their ranges inside the assessment line ofDice; the rest referable to effective immigrants was only a few (7%). I could perceive no reason such as disproves the idea ofDice’s additional boundary strip. Viewed from maps of ingress shift of ranges, the effect of ingress must have been greater in the outer trap rows than in the inner within the plot, so that it might well be called edge effect in general; such effect, however, is seen gradually diminishing toward the center, and hence it is almost unlikely that one should find any clear-cut intra-plot assessment lines demarcating such an inner square as quite free from edge effects. Averages of observed range length and width (ORL and ORW), as reliable measures for the true range size, were determined from the above group of specimens; as a result, the remarkable concept of elliptic range shape was established by regarding ORL as long axis and ORW as short one, and, directly from these averages, the mean range sizes worked out at 0.04 for females and 0.09 for males in acreage which proved to be surprisingly well agreeable with those of isotope-revealed ranges for voles given byGodfrey (1954) andAmbrose (1969). The catchability for marked voles ( ) was estimated by the maximum likelihood method by use ofJolly’s formulae (1965), but that for unmarked ones ( ) was made by the regression census formula; as a result it was shown that the population was clearly of π>p type and that the trap-experience that voles underwent one month or more ago can make them retain as high catchability as π. Contribution from JIBP-PT No. 110, carried out by the grant from the expenditure of Education Department to the specific study on “Dynamics of Biosphere”.     

Inquiry into effects of prebaiting on removal census in a vole population

Summary A field work with two plots of grid, a snap trap being set on each station spaced 5 m apart, was executed in the summer of 1968 to evaluate prebaiting in census trapping by comparing the result in one plot, prebaited for three days, with that in the other not prebaited. Since the population was as high as some 230 per acre on the average in density and formed of the vole,Microtus montebelli, alone, sufficient samples were gathered irrespective of the plot size as small as 50×50 m. Owning to the circumstances, multiple collisions inflicted so intense influence on sampling especially in the prebaited plot thatz-equation for census adjusted to the effect was well applicable to the data in either plot. In sampling, the fact that small voles are apt to be caught later than large voles was statistically evidenced in either sex, and yet any proof that males tend to be caught prior to females was not offered. It was ascertained in either plot that the daily catch was realized according to the same rule through the whole period of trapping in both external belt and internal square within the plot; hence it follows that no considerable immigration occurred. One of the beneficial effects of prebaiting is sure to be that the probability of capture was markedly enhanced in the prebaited plot, and a second is supposed, though inconclusively, to be that a good sampling could be executed consistently through the census period giving rise to no inordinate catches perhaps due to heterogeneous sampling as was seen in earlier days in the not prebaited plot. The supposition has derived from the condition that most of the whole population is trappable, which is established by interrelation among population density, size of home range and trap spacing. It was suggested that the effect of prebaiting should be evaluated from the view-point of the interrelation, because the basic utility of prebaiting consists in that it may help to our utlimate purpose to estimate the whole population. Contribution from JIBP-PT No. 55, carried out by the grant from the expenditure of Education Department to the specific study on “Dynamics of Biosphere”     

Assessing the validity of intercensal comparisons of indigenous Australians, 1986–96

The credibility of analysis of 1996 Census data on indigenous Australians hinges on who the people are who have changed their indigenous identification between the last two censuses. The number of people who identify as indigenous in either the Post-Enumeration Survey or the census is more stable than theprima facie evidence indicates. Also, the continuing low levels of education among the indigenous population means that self-identification signifies that one is, more than likely, disadvantaged. While it is difficult to say with absolute certainty that census statistics accurately reflect the economic status of the indigenous population, they are sufficiently credible to be taken at face value.