Drivers of rural exodus from Amazonian headwaters

Rural–urban migration can have both positive and negative environmental consequences for tropical forests. Rural residents exert pressure on the environment through farming, fishing, and forest extraction, yet conversely, protecting rural livelihoods is often the motivation for conserving large areas of threatened forest. This research examines rural settlement within the Brazilian Amazon to shed light on the drivers of on-going rural exodus and its environmental implications. Specifically, we examine the relative importance of public service provision and natural resources in determining settlement patterns along, and rural–urban migration from, eight rivers in road-less regions of the Brazilian Amazon. Data include biophysical, social, and economic variables that were assessed in 184 riverine settlements along rural–urban gradients up to 740 km from the nearest urban center. Settlements were smaller upstream, and lacked key services such as schools and healthcare. We found that clustering of rural populations close to urban centers reflects the high costs of living in remote areas, despite abundant natural resources which previously justified migration to headwaters. Impeded dry-season navigability and transport costs restricted the flow of goods and services to and from remote areas, and transaction costs of trade exchange were higher upstream. A lack of school access was the main motivation for rural–urban migration and the abandonment of remote riverine settlements. A key policy implication is that while education services could provide a powerful tool to stabilize and support rural populations, delivery is challenging in remote areas and may also encourage further rural–urban migration in the longer term. Furthermore, river-dwellers in remote areas rarely visited remote urban centers, presumably because these journeys are too costly. We examine the implications of our findings for anti-poverty subsidies and payment for ecosystem services and conclude that transport costs required to receive payment could encourage further depopulation of remote areas.     

Causes of Urban Migration in Bangladesh: Evidence from the Urban Health Survey

Mass migration is increasing urban populations globally. One country where urban migration is significantly increasing is Bangladesh, where systematic research will explore the reasons for urban migration in order to devise policies in this area, including maintaining the balance of urban–rural developments. This study used the Urban Health Survey (UHS) 2013 to ascertain the reasons for urban migration in large divisional cities in Bangladesh. The 2013 survey examined the differences between male and female migration, alongside any significant sociodemographic factors that might contribute to their motivation for moving to the city. The survey revealed that a majority of women (64.8%) migrated for family purposes, for example, joining husbands or in-laws, or parents/children. However, in recent years, female migrants have been involved in income-generating activities mostly due to a recent garment-making boom in Dhaka and its suburbs. A higher proportion of men (85.3%) moved to urban areas for work-related reasons: searching for new jobs, better income, or transfer in services. Among the sample in this study, 77% of the respondents (79.3% female and 73.5% male) migrated from villages. This migration mostly centered on Dhaka, the capital city of Bangladesh, where 68.1% of the total study sample migrated followed by 15.7% who went to Chittagong. The results indicate that the contemporary urban-centered economic policy in Bangladesh might require revision to accommodate the increased migrants from rural areas.

     

Urban growth in China: past, prospect, and its impacts

Rapid growth and globalization of the domestic economy have dramatically accelerated urbanization in China, resulting in significant environmental impacts and challenges for sustainable development. Using a multistate model accounting for distributional aspects of age, sex, education, and migration in rural and urban regions, we estimate the magnitude of urbanization in China through 2030 and examine some major associated sustainability issues. Results indicate that: (1) for a range of assumptions, China’s urban population will nearly double from 2000 to 2030; (2) the labor force will constitute a larger share of total population in urban areas than rural due to internal migration of younger workers—this appears particularly true for the mega-urban metropolises of Beijing and Shanghai; (3) rural populations will experience more aging than urban; and (4) level of education among China’s rural labor force will remain low, which could pressure China’s industrial structural transition from an agricultural to a service-based economy.     

Urban Growth in Developing Countries: A Review of Projections and Predictions

Comparison of the United Nations' earliest and most recent projections to the year 2000 suggests that urban and city growth in developing regions has occurred much more slowly than was anticipated as recently as 1980. A modified “urban population explosion” in developing countries since the 1970s conforms to explanatory models of urban growth developed by economists around 1980. Trends in productivity and terms of trade, in particular, have been highly favorable to agriculture as compared to manufacturing, presumably slowing migration to urban centers. Increases in national population growth rates have produced less than commensurate increases in rates of city growth, further supporting an economic and migration-related explanation for unexpectedly slow recent urban growth. Despite the efforts of the United Nations to maintain reliable statistics on urban and city populations, urban population projections should be interpreted with caution because of inadequacies of the data on which they are based. Moreover, current projections that virtually all world population growth in the future will occur in urban areas of developing countries may be misconstrued, if the forces that have retarded urban growth in recent years persist.     

Interrelations between migration and fertility in Thailand

Based on special tabulations of 1960 census data on migration within Thailand, this analysis attempts to assess the role of migration in the urbanization process and the relation between migration and fertility. The importance of migration to urban growth is evidenced by the clearcut positive relationship between the percentage of persons classified as either lifetime or 5-year migrants and the urban character of their 1960 place of residence. Yet, the evidence also points to an increasing proportion of urban growth in recent decades attributable to natural increase. The specific relation between fertility and migration varies depending on the measure of migration used: Compared to nonmigrants in their place of destination, the fertility levels of lifetime migrants are not very different; but those of 5-year migrants are considerably lower. Regardless of migration status, however, fertility level is markedly lower for those living in urban places compared to those in rural places. This suggests the important role of both migration and urbanization in affecting fertility levels in Thailand.     

进城还是回村？——跨省婚迁者的空间选择

在经济社会转型、人口频繁流动的条件下,婚迁由乡到城的单向迁移转变成为城乡互动的双向流动。婚迁者留在城市还是回到乡村,要取决于多种条件。本研究通过测度跨省婚迁的性别比发现,自1990年来的20年间我国省际婚迁性别比下降近一半。全国省际婚迁性别比呈现城市-城镇-乡村两端大中间小的“微笑曲线”。在婚迁的空间选择上,男性以城市为主,女性则以乡村为主。进一步分析影响婚姻迁移的因素发现,经济变量中人均GDP对总婚迁和城市婚迁呈正向影响,城镇和乡村呈负向影响;居民收入和消费状况对婚姻迁移产生正向影响,但消费的城乡差别则对其产生负向影响;人口的城乡流动与迁移以及社会变量中各因素对跨省婚迁产生正向影响,而文化变量中的各因素则形成负向影响。     

关于打工妹婚姻逆迁移的调查

由于制度与自身的原因 ,很多在城相恋的农民工婚后回到了农村 ,文章根据打工妹的婚后生活状况把打工妹的婚姻逆迁移分为四种类型 :安居乐业型、外出型、女方外逃型、女方自杀型。通过对这四种类型的描述从宏观和微观两个层面对婚姻逆迁移进行理论探讨。从宏观上看 ,城市化、工业化是不可逆的现代化趋势 ,在此背景下 ,与城市化、工业化相悖的婚姻逆迁移必然整体上充满被动和凄凉。从微观的角度来看 ,男女双方婚前信息交换的完全性、婚姻迁移和社区迁移的同步性也是影响这些婚姻迁移者婚姻质量的关键变项。     

Youth Migration Decisions in Sub-Saharan Africa: Satellite-Based Empirical Evidence from Nigeria

This article examines the implications of urban growth on youth migration decisions in Nigeria. We use night light intensity data combined with Living Standards Measurement Study-Integrated Surveys on Agriculture data, as an indicator of urban growth and associated economic opportunities. Employing alternative econometric approaches that exploit the spatial and temporal differences in urban growth as proxied by night light intensity, we find that urban growth in potential migrant destinations encourages youth migration. We also find heterogeneous responses to urban growth among various groups of youth as well as varying responses to different types of migration. Broadly, women and those youth with more education are more likely to migrate, while those in households with livestock are less likely to migrate. Often, however, the effects are complex and varied. For example, land and physical asset ownership encourage temporary migration; but greater land ownership discourages permanent migration, while physical assets have insignificant effects. Our results from Nigeria show that policy makers concerned about rural–urban youth exodus should adopt a differentiated, in terms of targets, and multidimensional policy approach to reap the benefits of urbanization while avoiding its negative consequences.     

中国城乡人口迁移数量决定因素的实证研究:1992~2004

通过对影响中国城乡迁移的因素进行实证分析,得到如下结论:第一,中国的经济增长对城乡迁移具有比较明显地促进作用;第二,人均耕地面积的减少成为城乡迁移比较重要的推动力量;第三,中国城镇新增就业岗位对城乡迁移具有显著的正向影响,中国城镇失业率对城乡迁移的影响不显著,中国的城乡迁移仍存在盲目性;第四,中国城乡收入差距对城乡迁移的作用不显著。     

基于人口迁移的中国城市体系演化预测研究

从中国城市化的本质———人口迁移网络出发,考虑所有城市空间单元以及城市间人口迁移联系在内,开展人口迁移和城市体系的综合性研究,探讨中国城市体系演化机理,将新经济地理学理论拓展到多区域,引入地理空间异质性,构建空间参考明确、全域均衡、空间单元之间存在明确人口迁移机理的城市体系模型。通过实证检验,该模型的模拟结果较为接近实际情况,模型拟合精度较高,可以用于城市体系演化预测。根据目前中国实际国情和国家政策导向,本文在三种大的城市化情景下根据中国各城市间人口迁移来预测中国未来城市体系的演化,即把整个城市体系视作一个通过人口迁移相互联系的网络整体来预测城市人口变化情况,从而为国家新型城镇化规划的流动人口管理、公共服务改进和城市等级体系规划等方面的政策制定提供现实依据。     

The influence of rural-urban migration on migrants' fertility in Korea,Mexico and Cameroon

The paper presents a comparative analysis of the relationship between rural-urban migration and fertility in Korea, Mexico, and Cameroon. Using an autoregressive model, the results show a significant rural-urban migration adaptation effect in Korea and Mexico, a reduction of 2.57 and 1.45 children during the entire childbearing period, respectively, when compared to a rural stayer, even after the effect of selection has been controlled. Rural-urban migration has a very small impact on fertility in Cameroon. The unexpected result for Cameroon is due to the fact that the fertility-increasing effect of urban residency on the improved supply conditions of births, such as reduced infertility, offsets the fertility-depressing effect of urban residency on the demand for births. As a result of the adaptation to urban fertility norms, the number of country-wide births was reduced significantly in Mexico and Korea over the time periods studied.     

改革开放以来中国人口迁移发展的几个特征

本文主要通过深入的考察、分析 ,总结了改革开放以来中国人口迁移发展的几个特征 ,指出改革开放以来 ,中国人口迁移逐步趋强并渐显高度活跃态势、农村人口的非户籍乡—城迁移始终为迁移主流、迁移原因及机制发生了重大转变、人口迁移的城乡—区域模式出现了一些新的变化。文章最后还进一步阐释了改革开放以来中国人口迁移发展的这些特征所显示的重要意义     

Urban temporary out-migration under economic reforms: Who moves and for what reasons?

Studies of temporary migration in developing countries often focus on rural outmigration and are preoccupied with problems it may bring to cities. Using a unique data set from two surveys conducted in Zhejiang province, China, this paper examines the other side of the coin — temporary migration from urban places — and thereby provides an important complement to studies focusing on rural-urban migration. The analysis identifies three types of temporary migrations: on-business, economic, and family-related. Using multinomial logit model, the analysis suggests that the three types of temporary migration differ significantly from each other in both their causes and migrants' socioeconomic characteristics; so does urban-urban migration from urban-rural migration. The considerable urban-rural temporary migration attests to the fact that temporary migration is not a one-way process; its positive selectivity further indicates that a considerable human capital flows from urban to rural areas through urban-rural temporary migration, which provides rural areas much needed science and technology and becomes an important facilitating factor of rural socioeconomic development.This article is based on a paper, presented at the meetings of the American Sociological Association, Pittsburgh, August 1992.     

新经济地理学视角下的劳动力跨省转移机制研究--以长三角城市群为例

新经济地理学理论认为劳动力出于商品多样性偏好和节约商品运输成本的目的集聚于厂商集聚的地区。文章以长三角城市群为例,利用第六次人口普查数据和NEG模型研究了劳动力流动跨省迁移的影响因素,着重考察了市场潜能对劳动力跨省迁移的作用。研究发现：市场潜能对劳动力跨省迁移有显著的正向效应,从而证明了新经济地理学的“前向联系”;地理距离对劳动力跨省迁移有弱化效应,但没有通过显著性检验;工资水平、就业率、边界效应对劳动力跨省迁移有显著的正向效应。     

Networks Versus Need: Drivers of Urban Out-Migration in the Brazilian Amazon

As urbanization rates rise globally, it becomes increasingly important to understand the factors associated with urban out-migration. In this paper, we examine the drivers of urban out-migration among young adults in two medium-sized cities in the Brazilian Amazon—Altamira and Santarém—focusing on the roles of social capital, human capital, and socioeconomic deprivation. Using household survey data from 1,293 individuals in the two cities, we employ an event history model to assess factors associated with migration and a binary logit model to understand factors associated with remitting behavior. We find that in Altamira, migration tends to be an individual-level opportunistic strategy fostered by extra-local family networks, while in Santarém, migration tends to be a household-level strategy driven by socioeconomic deprivation and accompanied by remittances. These results indicate that urban out-migration in Brazil is a diverse social process, and that the relative roles of extra-local networks versus economic need can function quite differently between geographically proximate but historically and socioeconomically distinct cities.     

Rural-urban migration and the social mobility of individuals in the Republic of Korea: an analysis of life history data

The paper explores the impact of rural-to-urban migration on the social mobility of individuals, comparing rural-to-urban migrants with rural and urban natives. Using life history data from the 1983 Korean National Migration Survey, the authors examined the pattern of migrant adjustment by estimating the 1st difference form of the autoregressive equation. They found a disruptive effect of rural-to-urban migration that disappears gradually after migration. This study provides strong evidence that most rural-to-urban migrants successfully adapt to urban life through upward occupational mobility relative to both rural and urban natives. This finding sharply contrasts with previous studies on the urban informal sector, which emphasize selective rural-to-urban migration or the inability of migrating individuals to adapt to city life. Moreover, this study showed that a principle cause of the rapid expansion of Seoul is that migrants are more likely to be upwardly mobile when they are destined for Seoul rather than other cities.     

Who moves and who stays? Rural out-migration in Nigeria

Data from the nationally representative 1993 Migration and Urbanization Survey of Nigeria are used to simultaneously examine the patterns of rural-rural and rural-urban migration in Nigeria. A multinomial logistic regression model predicts the independent and collective association between individual, household, and regional variables and migration from rural areas to rural and urban destinations. Associations between education, religion and ethnicity and migration propensities exist at the national level. The Kanuri-Shua Arabs are generally non-migrants, the Hausa-Fulani and Yoruba are predominantly rural-rural migrants and the Igbo-Ibibio and Urhobo-Isoko-Edo are predominantly ruralurban migrants. Christians are significantly more mobile than Muslims. While the highly educated are most likely to choose an urban destination, a significant proportion migrate to other rural areas. Concern over population concentration is not supported, as rural migrants move to all regions and to urban and rural areas.     

中国老年人口迁移的选择性

本文利用2005年全国1％人口抽样调查数据,描述老年人口跨地市级迁移的结构特征。研究发现,我国老年人口依旧把经济发达地带、大城市作为主要迁入地,与青壮年人口迁移方向产生同构。城乡老年迁移人口在迁移动机上存在很大的差别,城市户籍老年迁移人口受家庭因素驱动更大,农村户籍老年人的迁移原因更多元。从对迁入地的影响来看,国内老年迁移人口的迁入地过于集中,将对迁入地的社会医疗服务设施等构成巨大的压力。     

中国人口迁移与生育率关系研究

本文利用2000年人口普查数据,考察了中国人口迁移与生育率的关系。通过比较农村本地人口、城市本地人口和流动迁移人口三个人口群体在生育率上的差异,并进行多元统计分析,结果表明,流动迁移对生育率有着非常显著影响,城市外来人口的生育率不仅显著低于农村本地人口,而且也低于城市本地人口;远期流迁人口的生育率要低于近期流迁人口的生育率。中国人口迁移与生育率的关系出现了与已有的迁移生育率理论的不一致。1990年代中国的迁移生育率发生了转变。     

“Population Invasion” versus Urban Exclusion in the Tibetan Areas of Western China

This article examines the confluence of local population transitions (demographic transition and urbanization) with non‐local in‐migration in the Tibetan areas of western China. The objective is to assess the validity of Tibetan perceptions of “population invasion” by Han Chinese and Chinese Muslims. The article argues that migration to Tibet from other regions in China has been concentrated in urban areas and has been counterbalanced by more rapid rates of natural increase in the Tibetan rural areas—among the highest rates in China. Overall, it is not clear whether there is any risk of population invasion in the Tibetan areas. However, given that non‐Tibetan migration to Tibet has been concentrated in urban areas, Tibetans have probably become a minority in many of their strategic cities and towns, and non‐Tibetan migrants definitely dominate urban employment. Therefore, while the Tibetan notion of population invasion may be a misperception, it reflects a legitimate concern that in‐migration may be exacerbating the economic exclusion of Tibetan locals in the context of rapid urban‐centered development.