Polling on Watergate: The Battle for Public Opinion

How do polls become part of the political process through whichdecisions are made and issues resolved? Case studies of thedevelopment and outcome of political controversies, like Watergate,can go a long way toward clarification of the direct and indirectimpacts of the polls.     

Polling and the Press: The Clash of Institutional Imperatives

With the dramatic growth of public opinion research which hasoccurred over the past two decades has come a greatly expandedrelationship between polling and the news media. This press-pollingconnection has been a problematic one as the requirements andperspectives of the two institutions have clashed. This articledescribes the role of each of these institutions in our democraticsociety and their relationship with each other, and discussesthe problems—their causes, consequences, prognoses, andpossible remedies.     

I Am Woman,Hear Me Tweet! Gender Differences in Twitter Use among Congressional Candidates

This study synthesizes two theoretical literatures to explain gender differences in Twitter usage and effectiveness among US Congressional candidates. The first suggests that candidates in perceived disadvantaged positions, females in this case, innovate to improve their chances of success, and the second, that female politicians often adopt stereotypically masculine behaviors to be successful. On the basis of these theories, we hypothesize and confirm that female candidates are more likely than males to integrate Twitter into their campaigns, but our results are less conclusive regarding a difference in the likelihood that females use negative campaigning tactics via Twitter. Our results also indicate that those females who use Twitter more than their male counterparts tended to do better electorally, but this difference is conditional. Female Republican candidates who tweeted more increased their vote share, but the opposite is true for Democrats. We speculate that this differential effect may be a product of different audiences for social media in each party’s electorate.     

Preelection Polling in the 1982 Illinois Gubernatorial Contest

All the polls in advance of the 1982 Illinois gubernatorialelection proved incorrect in their prediction of a substantialvictory for James Thompson, the Republican. After examiningsome of the popular explanations for the "missed call," thispaper shows that while the voters "preferred" Thompson, therewas a very substantial increase in the number of straight partyballots cast for the Democrats, compared to 1978. This paperconcludes that in those states where straight party vote isan option, the poll takers probe for the possibility of a partyline vote. Information used in this paper to examine five hypothesesstems from a preelection poll of 1,200 Illinois voters.     

The Impact of Cell Phone Noncoverage Bias on Polling in the 2004 Presidential Election

Despite concerns that the accuracy of preelection telephonepolls would be harmed by the omission of voters who could bereached only by cell phone, most national polls performed wellin predicting President George W. Bush’s reelection in2004, and state polls were generally accurate as well. The nationalexit poll conducted by the National Election Pool found that7 percent of Election Day voters had cell phone service butno land line; younger voters were far more likely to be cell-only:19 percent among those age 18–24 and 20 percent amongthose age 25–29. Within these two youngest age cohorts,cell-only voters were significantly more likely to be singleand childless. While cell-only voters were more supportive ofJohn Kerry than voters overall, they were similar to other voterswithin their own age cohort. Because of this, preelection telephonesurveys that weighted their data appropriately by age were notsignificantly biased by the absence of the cell-only voters.     

The Effects of Capital Campaigns on Other Nonprofits’ Fundraising

This study focuses on the effects of capital campaigns on the fundraising performance of other nonprofits within the same geographic region. Drawing from research in organizational ecology and charitable giving, we offer a theory of capital campaign impact that says any impact of a campaign must be looked for in a carefully circumscribed area or population of organizations, and that campaigns raise awareness of the need for services within a particular area. We use data on capital campaigns at arts nonprofit organizations in forty‐eight counties across the United States between 1999 and 2007, coupled with financial data on nonprofits in the arts in the same county to test our hypotheses. The results from our analyses show that a major capital campaign positively affects other nonprofits’ fundraising, and the effect varies depending on the phase of the capital campaign. We discuss possible mechanisms that drive the positive effects of capital campaigns, and conclude with a short illustration.     

Social License to Operate in Crowdfunding Campaigns

Organizations and individuals need to engage their communities to gain the social license to operate (SLO). In crowdfunding, SLO is reflected in funding by the members of communities of interest around crowdfunding campaigns. Thus campaign creators’ success relies on obtaining SLO from their communities. This article examines how crowdfunding campaign creators engage their communities to gain and maintain SLO to secure funding for their campaigns. Content analysis of 68 successful and unsuccessful Kickstarter campaigns shows how successful campaign creators build their communities by the use of weak ties and have abundant relational and episodic engagement with their communities to obtain SLO. The results also show how successful campaign creators practice dialogic engagement to maintain their SLO over time. This study expands public relations to crowdfunding by framing crowdfunding as a community engagement practice and operationalizing SLO as tangible funding.     

'Pitbulls' and Populist Politicians: Sarah Palin,Pauline Hanson and the Use of Gendered Nostalgia in Electoral Campaigns

Abstract

Sarah Palin and Pauline Hanson were charismatic and populist politicians, whose home states of Alaska and Queensland became central to their political narrative. Both women gained political influence at times of intense debate regarding their respective countries' national identities. Voters perceived the states to be locales that evoked antiestablishment authenticity, and which echoed the historical dynamism of frontier society. The women used this association to consolidate their call for social renewal that would return politics to sections of the citizenry who felt themselves to be marginalized. The women's authority was augmented by gendered stereotypes that directed attention to their apparent vulnerability and honesty in attempting public service. Although their messages were calibrated differently, Palin and Hanson both demanded moral and political renewal, and generated intense support through their sexualized rhetoric of economic security and social nostalgia.     

Measurement and theory in legislative networks: The evolving topology of Congressional collaboration

The examination of legislatures as social networks represents a growing area of legislative scholarship. We examine existing treatments of cosponsorship data as constituting legislative networks, with measures aggregated over entire legislative sessions. We point out ways in which the direct application of models from the social networks literature legislative networks aggregated over entire sessions could potentially obscure interesting variation at different levels of measurement. We then present an illustration of an alternative approach, in which we analyze disaggregated, dynamic networks and utilize multiple measures to guard against overly measure-dependent inferences. Our results indicate that the cosponsorship network is a highly responsive network subject to external institutional pressures that more aggregated analyses would overlook.     

The Role of Corporations in the 1980 U.S. Congressional Elections*

The issues of whether and how corporate campaign donations affect the operation of American elections have recently become the focus of public and scholarly debate. Using Federal Election Commission campaign finance data, this analysis identifies a link betwren contributions from business PACs and candidate success in the 1980 U.S. congressional elections. Findings also confirm an association between corporate support and legislative voting for candidates re-elected in 1980. Candidates heavily supported by business PACs during the campaign did better at the polls and were more likely to vote conservatively if elected than those not so strongly endorsed by economic interests. Results are discussed in terms of various theories of the state as well as their relevance to potential election finance reforms.     

The Polls: Polling on Panama-Si; Don't Know; Hell, No

The transfer of the Panama Canal was the most frequently polledforeign policy issue during the period 1975-78. Contradictorytrends based on differently worded questions can be traced.But the results of the last polls, taken after both treatieshad been ratified, show the same level of opposition as wasmost commonly found when the issue began to be widely publicized.     

Variation in White House Polling Operations: Carter to Clinton

Using an entirely new data source, this article presents evidencethat significant variation exists in how much different presidentialadministrations use private White House polls. Federal ElectionCommission (FEC) disclosure records reveal the amount of moneythat presidents since Jimmy Carter paid (through their respectiveparty organizations) to the designated White House pollsters.These financial figures, in turn, roughly correlate with theestimated number of polls commissioned for the White House,as determined through archival research and information providedby the pollsters themselves. Two patterns emerge: some presidentspoll heavily from the start of their administrations (RonaldReagan and Bill Clinton); others poll only lightly during thefirst 3 years in office (Jimmy Carter and George Bush). Thesefindings reinforce scholarly assessments of Reagan and Clintonas pursuing a "permanent campaign" approach to leadership, whereasCarter and Bush lacked much interest in public relations techniques.Our evidence suggests a need for a refinement of the institutionalizationconcept as found in the academic literature on White House polling.We agree that all modern presidents inherit sophisticated toolsfor understanding public opinion, but we demonstrate that theydo not use these tools with equal attention or regularity. Putdifferently, a polling capability has been institutionalizedwithin the White house, but substantial variation still existsin how much a given administration uses that capability.     

Pollsters, the Press, and Political Polling in Britain

This article reviews the history of political polls in Britainsince 1945, when the first such poll was conducted, and examinescurrent topical issues, including the relationship between themedia and the polls.     

Press and TV as Opinion Resources in Presidential Campaigns

A comparison of campaign news in two successive presidentialelections reveals major deficiencies in information supply.Newspaper audiences, even more than television viewers, receiveconfusing, heavily negative information which makes candidateappraisal difficult. Incumbency of one candidate does not leadto substantially greater emphasis on public policy issues andprofessional qualifications. A pattern of heavy stress on personalcharacteristics and daily campaign events prevails in all sources.Data come from content analysis of nearly 10,000 campaign storiesfrom network television news and 20 U.S. daily newspapers.