非稳态下公共养老金资产负债表的编制与精算平衡调整

公共养老金资产负债表是国家资产负债表的重要组成部分,也是政府实施养老金改革的重要依据。已有研究给出了稳态下公共养老金资产负债表的编制方法,但这些方法无法直接用于非稳态情形。当前我国面临经济、人口、制度调整等非稳态环境,因此构建适应我国实际的非稳态下的公共养老金资产负债表成为重要的研究问题。非稳态下公共养老金资产负债表编制的主要难题在于缴费资产的计算。本文在梳理公共养老金资产负债表编制原理的基础上,推导出非稳态下缴费资产的计算公式,给出我国公共养老金资产负债表的编制方法和实际应用,并进一步测算分析了降低养老金待遇指数、延迟退休、提高缴费等多项改革对公共养老金资产负债表的影响。结果显示：我国公共养老金的资产负债平衡过度依赖财政补贴,无法实现缴费资产与负债的平衡。适当调整养老金待遇指数、退休年龄、缴费水平等参数,有助于恢复资产和负债的平衡,减轻制度对财政补贴的依赖。     

关于退休费在国民经济核算中虚拟处理的再思考

退休费的处理是中国国民经济核算中尚未解决的问题之一,在对已有的退休费处理方法回顾和分析基础上,提出将退休费作为一种特殊的养老保险进行虚拟处理方法。其核心思想是将退休费作为雇主虚拟社会交款计入劳动报酬,同时作为未备基金雇员社会福利计入经常转移,从而将退休费的处理纳入到SNA的核算体系。     

对个人养老金账户中除数取值的分析

从我国实行社会统筹与个人账户相结合的基本养老保险制度以来,对个人账户的月领取额由个人账户的累积额除以120的法律规定,不断有人提出质疑。文章综合研究了决定该除数的两个因素———个人账户养老金给付年限和养老金工资替代率,最后得出的结论是:个人账户政策中的除以120是合理的。     

城镇职工基本养老保险退保群体特征研究

本文基于深圳特区2005-2011年企业社会追踪调查数据,对养老保险退保群体特征因素进行随机效应回归,结果表明：退保群体的性别、年龄、保险意识、收入水平、户口、劳动合同属性、行业类型等有显著差异。2009年国务院颁布《城镇企业职工基本养老保险关系转移接续暂行办法》后,退保显著减少。     

基本养老保险基金的调剂效果研究

自2018年7月1日起，我国开始实施《企业职工基本养老保险基金中央调剂制度》，对全国各省份的养老基金进行中央调剂，以缓解省际间养老保险基金的不平衡，其调剂效果也将直接影响到后续政策的制定。本文首先以养老基金拨付额与上解额之比构建了衡量调剂程度的指标——调剂指数，等于抚养比指数与工资指数之比；然后基于2009－2016年的省际面板数据展开实证分析，主要结论如下：①当前养老基金结余主要集中在广东、北京、上海等8个省份，而且这种高度集中的趋势还在逐年加强，有必要进行中央调剂；②抚养比越高、工资水平越低的省份，获得的调剂数额就越多，全国大约有20%的上解资金被用于省际间的调剂，被调入到收不抵支省份的资金比例在逐年上升；③抚养比指数和工资指数对调剂指数的影响程度存在很大差异，其中抚养比指数的影响程度超过了80%，而工资指数还不到20%，调整在职应参保人数的计算方式，主要是通过影响抚养比指数来影响调剂指数的。     

On the experience of projecting the family composition of the population of the USSR

The joint efforts in the USSR by the Central Planning Commission and the State Statistical Commission to develop projections of family characteristics of the Soviet population are described. The projections, based on official data for the rural and urban populations in 1987, are for the years 1991, 1996, 2001, and 2006.     

改革前后我国养老保险制度的收入再分配效应比较研究

摘　　要:本文对改革前后我国养老保险制度的收入再分配效应进行了比较研究。首先,文章从理论上分析了不同养老保险制度对收入再分配的影响,然后基于我国养老保险制度改革的实际情况,利用精算方法与数据定量分析了改革前后我国养老保险制度的代内再分配和代际再分配效应,最后得到如下结论：与原养老保险制度相比,新养老保险制度明显减弱了代内再分配效应,并且可能会引起严重的代际不公平 。     

Capitation funding in the public sector

A fundamental requirement of government at all levels—national and local—is to distribute the limited funds that it wishes to spend on particular public services between geographical areas or institutions, which are effectively competitors for such funds. Increasing use is now being made of capitation methods for such purposes, in which a standard estimate of expected expenditure is attached to a citizen with given characteristics. Statistical methods are playing an important role in determining such capitations, but they give rise to profound methodological problems. This paper examines the rationale for capitation and discusses the associated methodological issues. It illustrates the issues raised with two examples taken from the UK public sector: in personal social services and hospital care. Severe limitations of the data mean that small area data are used as the unit of observation, giving rise to considerable complexity in the model to be estimated. As a result, a range of methodologies including two-stage least squares and multilevel modelling methods are deployed. The paper concludes with a suggestion for an approach which would represent an improvement on current capitation methods, but which would require data on individuals rather than on small areas.     

中国养老金体系待遇充足性的多维度评估

养老金制度的首要目标是防止老年贫困和实现一定水平的收入替代,从而养老金的“待遇充足”至关重要。本文借鉴国际上关于养老金充足性的多维度评估思路,结合中国实际,构建了中国养老金体系待遇充足性的三维度、六指标评价体系。在此基础上,基于国家统计局公开的数据以及全国综合社会调查（CGSS）提供的微观数据进行测算分析,发现我国养老金体系在收入水平、防止贫困和性别差异三个维度上的表现并不理想,各地区养老金充足性在不同时间上存在差异。进而提出我国应在不同层次养老金制度设计中强化收入替代功能、防止老年贫困和缩小性别差异等政策建议。     

“做实做小”个人账户对个人养老金水平的影响

 本文引入养老保险金记账利率和工资增长率，测算了在不同初始缴费工资和缴费年限条件下实施“做实做小”个人账户政策对参保人养老金水平的影响。通过分析得出：1.政策调整后，养老金给付结构较调整前更能体现缴费积累与养老金水平的内在经济联系； 2.政策调整后个人养老金水平普遍不如政策调整前的水平，政策调整后养老金水平高于政策调整前均出现在缴费年限较长以及初始缴费工资较高的情况下；3.政策调整对不同的参保人影响不同。政策调整加大了低初始缴费工资人群的生活压力；拉大了男、女职工退休养老金的差距，不利于当前社会男女平等和贫富分化问题的解决。     

Hitting and missing targets by ambulance services for emergency calls: effects of different systems of performance measurement within the UK

Summary.  Following devolution, differences developed between UK countries in systems of measuring performance against a common target that ambulance services ought to respond to 75% of calls for what may be immediately life threatening emergencies (category A calls) within 8 minutes. Only in England was this target integral to a ranking system of 'star rating', which inflicted reputational damage on services that failed to hit targets, and only in England has this target been met. In other countries, the target has been missed by such large margins that services would have been publicly reported as failing, if they had been covered by the English system of star ratings. The paper argues that this case-study adds to evidence from comparisons of different systems of hospital performance measurement that, to have an effect, these systems need to be designed to inflict reputational damage on those that have performed poorly; and it explores implications of this hypothesis. The paper also asks questions about the adequacy of systems of performance measurement of ambulance services in UK countries.     

基于断点回归法的“新农保”主观福利效应检验

在家庭养老功能日益弱化的中国农村,人口老龄化却日益严重,而如何实现"老有所养、老有所乐"的幸福老龄化社会已成为全社会关注的热点。已有文献主要研究的是养老金对老年人收入、消费、家庭代际转移等客观经济福利的影响,较少关注"新农保"的主观福利效应以及政策效果的异质性问题。利用CHARLS项目发布的2011-2012年全国调研数据,采用断点回归法研究"新农保"的主观福利效应,结果发现"新农保"不但能显著提高不同文化水平、不同健康状况、不同收入水平老年人的生活满意度,而且存在群体异质性,对弱势群体的政策效果更为明显。     

Robust portfolio choice for a defined contribution pension plan with stochastic income and interest rate

This paper considers a robust portfolio choice problem for a defined contribution pension plan with stochastic income and stochastic interest rate. The investment objective of the pension plan is to maximize the expected utility of the wealth at the retirement time. We assume that the financial market consists of a stock, a zero-coupon bond and a risk-free asset. And the member of defined contribution pension plan is ambiguity-averse, which means that the member is uncertain about the expected return rate of the bond and stock. Meanwhile, the member's ambiguity-aversion level toward these two financial assets is quite different. The closed-form expressions of the robust optimal investment strategy and the corresponding value function are derived by adopting the stochastic dynamic programming approach. Furthermore, the sensitive analysis of model parameters on the optimal investment strategy are presented. We find that the member's aversion on model ambiguity increases her hedging demand and has remarkable impact on the optimal investment strategy. Moreover, we demonstrate that ignoring model uncertainty will lead to significant utility loss for the ambiguity-averse member, and the model uncertainty about the stock dynamics implies greater effect on the outcome of the investment than the bond.     

基本养老保险制度对个人退休行为的激励程度研究

退休制度改革的一个关键问题是基本养老保险制度对个人退休行为的激励程度。作者通过测算九大行业代表性个体在不同退休年龄的养老保险替代率和边际隐性税率,得到以下结论：我国现行基本养老保险制度对个人退休行为存在普遍的负面激励作用,即会增加提前退休行为出现的概率,并且这种负面激励作用存在着很大的行业差异性,低收入行业的职工面临着更严重的负面激励。在这些结论的基础上,作者对弹性退休制度的精算中性原则进行了反思,并建议我国在进行弹性退休制度设计的时候,既要消除养老保险制度的负激励作用,又要注意保护低收入行业职工的权益。     

No islands: charting a course for UK official statistics

Our system of official statistics in the UK is one of the most decentralised and elaborate in the world. As well as the Office for National Statistics (ONS), it spans several sizeable centres of expertise in Whitehall departments and in the three devolved administrations; and it embraces agencies such as the Higher Education Statistics Agency and the Information Centre for Health and Social Care, which sit at arms length from central departments. In 2008, legislation establishing a new Statistics Board, with oversight not just of the ONS but of all official figures produced by these bodies, will come fully into force. Richard Alldritt of the Statistics Commission and Richard Laux of the ONS identify some of the challenges facing the statistical system at this time of transition and suggests a course that the Statistics Board might want to steer.     

Delivery, Management and Access Model for E_prints and Open Access Journals

A study conducted for the (United Kingdom) Joint Information Systems Committee reviewed possible models for implementing Open Access to research reports in institutional archives and Open Access journals. The conclusion was that a “harvesting model,” in which full texts reside on the original servers but metadata are harvested, held, and enhanced by a central service, was preferable to either a centralized national service or a completely decentralized service for the UK. The study included issues of populating institutional archives (IAs) and some form of mandatory archiving for publicly funded research results to obtain a critical mass of Open Access material in such a system.     

收入、预期寿命和社会养老保险收入再分配效应

本文在考虑职工基本养老保险典型不同缴费基数参保者寿命存在异质性的情况下，通过内部收益率的计算考察典型不同缴费基数参保者之间的养老金收入再分配效应。首先根据省级宏观截面数据估计了职工基本养老保险典型不同缴费基数参保者退休时的平均余命，再据此分别计算和比较不同参保群体的内部收益率。 研究发现职工基本养老保险制度总体上呈现微弱的正向收入再分配效应。虽然低缴费基数参保者内部收益率略高于中、高缴费基数参保职工，但其内部收益率因相对较短的寿命而大大降低。这也提醒政策制定者在研究制定延迟退休、社会养老保险全国统筹等政策时需要充分考虑参保职工内部不同群体间的平均预期寿命差别，对低收入参保者予以特别关注。     

现收现付制、降低缴费率与经济增长——基于中国省际面板数据的经验研究

利用中国2001-2011年的省际面板数据资料,通过联立方程模型研究中国现行养老保险制度降低缴费率的经济增长效应,研究发现,中国实际上仍为现收现付模式的城镇社会养老保险制度,缴费率变化对个人储蓄率产生显著为负的影响,对居民对子女的教育投资比重的影响为正,但不显著,而个人储蓄率和居民对子女的教育投资比重对经济增长的影响都显著为正。当前养老保险制度通过降低缴费率对经济增长的净效应为负,降低缴费率有利于经济增长。     

Bayesian hierarchical models for the prediction of volleyball results

Statistical modelling of sports data has become more and more popular in the recent years and different types of models have been proposed to achieve a variety of objectives: from identifying the key characteristics which lead a team to win or lose to predicting the outcome of a game or the team rankings in national leagues. Although not as popular as football or basketball, volleyball is a team sport with both national and international level competitions in almost every country. However, there is almost no study investigating the prediction of volleyball game outcomes and team rankings in national leagues. We propose a Bayesian hierarchical model for the prediction of the rankings of volleyball national teams, which also allows to estimate the results of each match in the league. We consider two alternative model specifications of different complexity which are validated using data from the women''s volleyball Italian Serie A1 2017–2018 season.     

BP神经网络在基本养老保险基金支付风险预警中的应用

尝试将BP神经网络引入基本养老保险基金的风险预警中,以期为其提供一种新的预警工具和方法。首先,建立了一套基本养老保险基金风险预警指标体系,构建了基于BP网络的基本养老保险基金风险预警模型;其次,采集1996年至2008年间的上海市各年度基本养老保险基金的历史数据对该模型进行了反复训练和学习,取得了误差率仅为3.86%的预测结果,说明该模型有很好的拟合度;最后,依据国际国内经验对基本养老保险基金的警情指标设置了五个警度输出区间。