Designing computer models that work

The techniques of financial modelling are becoming more popular and accepted as a useful information processing tool. However, what is ‘financial modelling’ and does the term adequately describe current applications? Why has financial modelling been such a growth area and what are the benefits? Given a desire to build models, where does the manager begin? What type of system and language should be used and by whom? What type of computing facility is most suitable? Which modelling system should be selected and what features are important? As well as an increase in the number of financial modelling applications they are now more complex. What guidelines can one use when designing large and complex models? This article seeks to answer these questions, concentrating on the large and more complex models, particularly for long term planning and budgeting applications. Finally an example is given illustrating how a large modelling system can be constructed and maintained with little technical computer expertise.     

Neural Networks: A New Tool for Predicting Thrift Failures*

A neural network model that processes input data consisting of financial ratios is developed to predict the financial health of thrift institutions. The network's ability to discriminate between healthy and failed institutions is compared to a traditional statistical model. The differences and similarities in the two modelling approaches are discussed. The neural network, which uses the same financial data, requires fewer assumptions, achieves a higher degree of prediction accuracy, and is more robust.     

Computers and financial planning

This article discusses the principal application areas of models in the financial planning field together with the main reasons for adopting this approach. The various techniques available are compared with special emphasis on the now widespread ‘financial modelling systems’. Finally, an indication is given as to future developments.     

What users think about computer models

This paper presents the findings of a survey of the EPS user base in the U.K. The objective of the survey was to develop improvements in corporate modelling in the light of the response. It is inevitably biased towards large companies with in-house facilities, but as the results make useful comments on the use of financial modelling systems in general use.     

Tioxide: Computerization—The key to the future in financial planning

As the capability of new computer systems becomes increasingly sophisticated, so does the application of computer techniques to financial and strategic planning become more relevant to management. Planning and practically all forms of decision-making are concerned with the future, which necessarily is uncertain and therefore difficult to plan for. Forecasting methods, however, can suggest trends and it is possible to reduce the number of possible futures to a manageable number, in effect, creating scenarios. But the viewing of multiple scenarios in a manual accounting system is impractical, given the sheer volume of work, and this is where the facilities offered by computerization can assist decision-making greatly. The case study illustrated here concerns a multinational company with production facilities in seven different countries, using a sophisticated financial software packege for strategic and financial planning applications. The article traces the development of Tioxide's association with a financial modelling package, Planmaster, from initial use on a time-sharing basis to the changes in hardware manufacture which made it possible to run what is essentially a mainframe program on the desk-top microcomputer of the planning department.     

Linking hybrid systems to ACD models: a case study in the fibre-glass industry

This paper is aimed at formalising and testing a model for hybrid systems where the interactions between the continuous process parts and the manufacturing sub-systems are given by minor stoppages. The proposed approach consists in representing the effects of the continuous process dynamics on discrete manufacturing sub-systems by means of autoregressive conditional duration (ACD) models originally conceived to treat high-frequency and irregularly spaced financial transaction data. The model has been applied to a real-life furnace and spooling-bushing department system of a fibre-glass production plant. Results conclude that the ACD-based model proved useful for representing the occurrence of fibre-glass breakage on the spooling-bushing machines and, in more general terms, that the proposed methodology could be really suitable for the logical modelling of the hybrid production systems where the relationships between the continuous and the discrete parts are given by the occurrence of minor stoppages.     

Some trends in corporate modelling

This paper reviews the evidence of a number of surveys and case studies of corporate modelling in the U.K. Some general conclusions as to trends are drawn. Thus corporate models will display increasing modularity; will be more likely to include probabilistic elements; will more often incorporate physical flows; and will be generally linked to a greater number of other models in organisations. Micros are making a substantial impact as tools for running decision support systems both of the corporate model and the ad hoc model variety. Forecasting techniques are still greatly underutilised in many organisations. Although most corporate models are currently of the deterministic financial simulation type, the influence of management education will help the adoption of more advanced models by more numerate senior managers and accountants. Indeed there is already evidence that this is happening in some organisations.     

Cost, volume and profitability analysis.

If you want to increase your income by seeing more patients, it's important to figure out the financial impact such a move could have on your practice. Learn how to run a cost, volume, and profitability analysis to determine how business decisions can change your financial picture.     

A strategic and global manufacturing capacity management optimisation model: A Scenario-based multi-stage stochastic programming approach

Large-scale multinational manufacturing firms often require a significant investment in production capacity and extensive management efforts in strategic planning in an uncertain business environment. In this research we first discuss what decision terms and boundary conditions a holistic capacity management model for the manufacturing industry must contain. To better understand how these decision terms and constraints have been employed by the recent model developers in the area of capacity and resource management modelling for manufacturing, 69 optimisation-based (deterministic and stochastic) models have been carefully selected from 2000 to 2018 for a brief comparative analysis. The results of this comparison shows although applying uncertainty into capacity modelling (in stochastic form) has received a greater deal of attention most recently (since 2010), the existing stochastic models are yet very simplistic, and not all the strategic terms have been employed in the current model developments in the field. This lack of a holistic approach although is evident in deterministic models too, the existing stochastic counterparts proved to include much less decision terms and inclusive constraints, which limits them to a limited applications and may cause sub-optimal solutions. Employing this set of holistic decision terms and boundary conditions, this work develops a scenario-based multi-stage stochastic capacity management model, which is capable of modelling different strategic terms such as capacity level management (slight, medium and large capacity volume adjustment to increase/decrease capacity), location/relocation decisions, merge/decomposition options, and product management (R&D, new product launch, product-to-plant and product-to-market allocation, and product phase-out management). Possibility matrix, production rates, different financial terms and international taxes, inflation rates, machinery depreciation, investment lead-time and product cycle-time are also embedded in the model in order to make it more practical, realistic and sensitive to strategic decisions and scenarios. A step-by-step open-box validation has been followed while designing the model and a holistic black-box validation plan has been designed and employed to widely validate the model. The model then has been verified by deploying a real-scaled case of Toyota Motors UK (TMUK) decision of mothballing one of their production lines in the UK after the global recession in 2010.     

双因子非对称已实现SV模型及其实证研究

在基本的SV模型中引入包含丰富日内高频信息的已实现测度,同时考虑其偏差修正以及波动率非对称性与长记忆性,构建了双因子非对称已实现SV（2FARSV）模型.进一步基于连续粒子滤波算法,给出了2FARSV模型参数的极大似然估计方法.蒙特卡罗模拟实验表明,给出的估计方法是有效的.采用上证综合指数和深证成份指数日内高频数据计算已实现波动率（RV）和已实现极差波动率（RRV）,对2FARSV模型进行了实证研究.结果表明：RV和RRV都是真实日度波动率的有偏估计（下偏）,但RRV相比RV是更有效的波动率估计量;沪深股市具有强的波动率持续性以及显著的波动率非对称性（杠杆效应与规模效应）;2FARSV模型相比其它已实现波动率模型具有更好的数据拟合效果,该模型能够充分地捕获沪深股市波动率的动态特征（时变性、聚集性、非对称性与长记忆性）.     

Managing during a merger.

In the November-December 1988 issue of Physician Executive, Dr. Marks' article outlined typical reactions to the uncertainty of being involved in a merger or consolidation. The article introduced the concept of the "merger syndrome," which encompasses executives' stressful reactions to a combination and the development of a crisis management orientation. The bottom line, if the syndrome is allowed to go unchecked, can be marred executive and employee performance and poor financial and operational results. The merger syndrome is a prime reason that two-thirds of all mergers and acquisitions are financial failures. Consumed by their reactions to mergers, executives frequently lose touch with the needs of employees. In this article, the author summarizes steps that can be taken by executives to help their employees cope with the trauma of merger; to minimize negative employee reactions, such as reduced productivity and increased turnover; and to build effective postmerger teams.     

Inference in Arch and Garch Models with Heavy–Tailed Errors

ARCH and GARCH models directly address the dependency of conditional second moments, and have proved particularly valuable in modelling processes where a relatively large degree of fluctuation is present. These include financial time series, which can be particularly heavy tailed. However, little is known about properties of ARCH or GARCH models in the heavy–tailed setting, and no methods are available for approximating the distributions of parameter estimators there. In this paper we show that, for heavy–tailed errors, the asymptotic distributions of quasi–maximum likelihood parameter estimators in ARCH and GARCH models are nonnormal, and are particularly difficult to estimate directly using standard parametric methods. Standard bootstrap methods also fail to produce consistent estimators. To overcome these problems we develop percentile–t, subsample bootstrap approximations to estimator distributions. Studentizing is employed to approximate scale, and the subsample bootstrap is used to estimate shape. The good performance of this approach is demonstrated both theoretically and numerically.     

New model helps find missing link between financial and clinical health care management.

U.S. health care is missing a link between the financial managers and clinical health managers of defined patient populations. Utilization and cost management try to bridge the gap by focusing on restricted access to care or tightly managed provider reimbursement to control costs. But frequently, they do not take clinical outcomes or health status into consideration. Take a look at another method based on the science of epidemiology that brings a more balanced knowledge of the clinical world to financial managers and more financial insight to clinicians.     

How to design a financial planning model.

Corporate planning models frequently consist of integrated pro forma income statements, statements of financial position, and cashflow statements. When implemented by utilizing computer-based planning systems, these models allow managers to explore potential decisions in ‘what if?’ planning analyses.The logic of an integrated financial statement planning model can be arranged following either a ‘funds needed to balance approach’ or a ‘direct approach’. With a funds needed to balance approach total assets are set equal to total liabilities plus equities to satisfy this fundamental accounting identity. Logic in such models is often difficult to validate. In the direct approach, total assets are calculated independently of total liabilities plus equities providing an extremely strong test for model validation prior to using the model to assess ‘what if’ alternatives.In this paper, the author discusses the logic of integrated financial planning models and their implementation with computer-based planning systems. The funds need to balance approach and the direct approach are described and contrasted to assist corporate planners in evaluating and selecting a method for constructing the logic of corporate planning models.     

IT Governance Characteristics,Electronic Medical Records Sophistication,and Financial Performance in U.S. Hospitals: An Empirical Investigation

As a result of a recent federal government mandate, an increasing number of hospitals have decided to adopt electronic medical record (EMR) systems. This initiative is expected to lead toward more efficient and higher quality health care; however, little is known about governance characteristics and organizational performance for EMR adopters. Our goal is to inform theory and practice by examining hospitals with a sophisticated EMR and comparing those hospitals to similar hospitals (with a less sophisticated EMR) to understand the association between information technology (IT) governance characteristics and the implications on financial performance. Leveraging elements of the upper echelon theory, we posit that hospitals in which the chief information officer (CIO) reports to the chief executive officer, CIO turnover is low, and an IT steering committee is present are more likely to have a sophisticated EMR. We argue that EMR sophistication leads to improved financial performance. Our results underscore the importance of continuity in the CIO position on successful EMR implementations. Results also show that hospital size and financial performance are strongly associated with EMR sophistication. In addition, we find that a sophisticated EMR appears to be a fundamental element in improving hospitals’ revenue cycle management. Moreover, we find that hospitals with a sophisticated EMR appear to be more profitable. Finally, we observe that total payroll expense adjusted by total discharges drops among the sophisticated hospitals, potentially due to an increase in employee productivity. These insights can serve as a basis for tempering expectations relative to the financial impact of EMR adoption.     

Models for supply chain reengineering

The goal of this paper is to provide a first step in the development of a coherent set of modelling methods for supply chain reengineering. This paper shows that different fields of attention in supply chain management should be approached with different modelling methods. Three modelling methods are presented: the event process chain (EPC) method; the activity chain model (ACM) method; and the GRAI grid method (adjusted for supply chains). EPC modelling focuses on time relationships between primary processes/functions, and is customer oriented. ACM modelling focuses on functions/processes and information flows. GRAI focuses on decision structures and information flows. The three methods are described, and an application of the methods to a case study company is presented. This paper concludes with a comparison of the methods and a discussion of their applicability.     

Skill utilization and well-being: a cross-level story of day-to-day fluctuations and personal intrinsic values

The opportunity to use one's skills at work is an important prerequisite for employee well-being. Drawing on self-determination and person-environment fit theory, this diary study aims to add to our understanding of this important phenomenon in two ways. Firstly, we examine the associations of within-subject daily variations in skill utilization with well-being. Secondly, we model work value orientation as a between-subject factor that moderates this within-subject relationship. Specifically, we advocate that daily skill utilization is more beneficial (in terms of more daily work engagement and less daily emotional exhaustion) for employees holding predominantly intrinsic (i.e. self-development, community contribution) as opposed to extrinsic (i.e. financial success, status) values. Results of multilevel modelling using diary data from 99 service workers over five working days, supported the assumption that daily skill utilization was positively related to daily work engagement, particularly among employees holding a predominantly intrinsic work value orientation. Contrary to our expectations, daily skill utilization was unrelated to daily exhaustion, both for employees holding high and low intrinsic values. The discussion highlights the importance of, and employees’ receptiveness to, variations in beneficial working conditions.     

Production planning in practice

The changes and pressures facing the manufacturing and engineering industries today are increasing the importance of effective aggregate manpower and production planning. Several different theoretical optimisation models to tackle this problem have been described in detail in the literature but there have been few applications of them in practice.The reasons for this are many but include: the difficulty in expressing managements' conflicting and mixed objectives in an objective function; the necessity to oversimplify real life systems to enable these methods to be used; the simplistic approach to manpower planning used in these models; the difficulty in gaining managements' acceptance and finally the fact that what management actually wants is a tool to assist them in planning and decision making.What is being used by many managements is a case-study deterministic simulation model. Many companies are adopting this type of model for all types of planning and twelve out of twenty-seven companies visited in a research project described in this paper were using this type of model for aggregate manpower and production planning. It is proving to be an effective management tool and is being readily accepted principally because modern specialised financial modelling languages are enabling these models to be built, understood and used by non-specialist managers.     

Twenty steps to survive managed care.

The health care industry is in the midst of discounted, price-driven, managed care. Many older physicians, not wanting to practice in this environment, are opting for early retirement. Others sell their clinical practices to management companies or hospitals to avoid the economic reality of day-to-day financial management. Most of these private practices are losing money every year. However, there still are a large number of physicians who have not sold their practice. As capitation continues to grow, these physicians will experience severe cash flow problems unless their financial plight is addressed rapidly. If it is not, the resultant cash flow problems will cause accounts payable to grow. Twenty steps are outlined that a physician or group should take right away to maintain a healthy cash flow. These include: Instituting a nurse triage system, setting up an after-hours clinic, getting the co-pay at the time of service, implementing a patient satisfaction questionnaire, monitoring the capitation reports, and checking capitation lists.     

Do Compensation Consultants Drive Up CEO Pay? Evidence from UK Public Firms

Do compensation consultants drive up CEO pay for the benefit of managers, or do they design pay packages to benefit firm owners? Using a large sample of UK firms from the FTSE All‐Share Index over the 2003–2011 period, we show a positive correlation between the presence of compensation consultants and CEO pay. Importantly, isolating this effect is somewhat dependent on the endogenous selection of consultants and the statistical modelling strategy deployed. We find evidence that compensation consultants improve CEO compensation design when their expertise is of greater importance (e.g. during the post‐financial crisis period, or for firms that have particularly weak compensation policies). In addition, our findings show that compensation consultants increase CEO pay–performance sensitivity. The balance of evidence supports optimal contracting theory more than managerial power theory, but the authors caution the limits to this verification. We are careful to note that the more compelling evidence for the positive effect of pay consultants on CEOs is based on advanced methods (such as propensity score matching and difference‐in‐differences), and that more standard approaches (such as OLS and fixed effects) are unlikely to reveal the same level of causality of consultants on CEO pay.