An economic model of world energy 1900–2020

This report presents a model of the supply and demand for the world's energy during the period from 1900 to 2020. This model leads to the conclusion that even without new kinds of energy sources becoming practical, world energy demand can be met during the next 50 years with only a gradual increase in energy costs. Assumptions with respect to exhaustion of reserves that I regard as mildly conservative lead to a demand that can be satisfied by a 1.5 per cent per year energy price increase. This would raise the percentage of world GNP devoted to primary energy from the present 3–4 per cent in the year 2020. Eliminating per capita economic growth would reduce the required annual price increase only from 1.5 to 1.8 per cent. Eliminating normal technological progress in existing energy technologies would increase the required annual price increase from 1.5 to 2.7 per cent. The model shows oil and gas reaching their maximum share of the energy market during the 1980's. By 2020 approximately 50 per cent of all energy comes from nuclear power.The model provides a framework for the analysis of the world energy market under a wide variety of assumptions. In particular, the model allows explicitly for assumptions about technological progress, economies and diseconomies of scale, and the rate of substitution of cheaper energy sources for more expensive ones.     

Planning for electricity generation in India

A country's economy and its energy base have a complex yet strong relationship. As a result the provisioning of an increasing quanta of energy is a vital pre-requisite for the economic growth of a country. With certain exceptions it has been found from a study of the per capita electric energy generation and per capita income that between 0·7 and 2 units of electric energy are required for generation of one unit of income. The exact relationship will vary from country to country depending on the particular energy-mix, the extent of industrialization and the energy efficiency of the economy. In the case of India, with the increasing contribution being made by the manufacturing, mining, transportation and communication sectors to the gross national product, the linkage between energy consumption and the deflated GNP are specific and strong. This paper outlines the methodology by which the relationship has been modelled and a forecast made of the energy demand.     

薄煤层煤矿生产车间特殊开采生产技术的复杂性评价

本文介绍了田陈煤矿创新的综采与普机采混合、工作面超长布置、对拉、旋转调采、矩形和梯形不规则形状的薄煤层开采技术;建立了矿井生产系统结构复杂性评价的新尺度;提出了评价方法和系统结构的简约化、复杂性减少原理;并应用此理论与方法对田陈煤矿生产系统结构复杂性评价进行了实证研究。     

Sequencing Rules for Productivity Improvements in Underground Coal Mining*

In this paper, we report on a unique two-machine, dynamic sequencing problem that was involved in a project designed to improve the productivity of underground coal mining operations. It was discovered that mine output was dependent on the particular sequence of faces the continuous miner and bolter worked. The problem is characterized by two unique features. First, the problem is unique because of the geological and safety constraints that must be satisfied by the sequence. Second, the scheduling problem is dynamic because the available job sets change as work progresses, and the production times change as coal is mined. Three heuristic approaches were developed and tested using mine parameters. The best heuristic had a worst case scenario of being within 2.7 percent of the optimal sequence and only a 1.1 percent chance of determining a better sequence. This heuristic resulted in an 8.1 percent productivity improvement.     

面向安全硬约束的煤矿生产物流效率优化研究

在保证安全生产前提下实现效率最大化是煤炭生产企业亟需解决的现实问题。本文结合煤矿生产物流系统的复杂性特征,首先从人员素质、机械装备、环境改善、安全管理、应急救援等方面确定了煤矿生产物流的安全投入指标,运用响应曲面法分析了安全指标与安全水平间的作用关系,确定了煤矿生产物流安全硬约束条件;然后以效率最大化为目标函数、安全目标和资源投入为约束条件,构建了煤矿生产物流效率优化模型;最后通过实例验证了模型的有效性及适用性,为安全生产前提下实现资源优化配置,提高煤矿生产物流效率提供了科学依据。     

Abandoned Metal Mine Stability Risk Evaluation

The abandoned mine legacy is critical in many countries around the world, where mine cave-ins and surface subsidence disruptions are perpetual risks that can affect the population, infrastructure, historical legacies, land use, and the environment. This article establishes abandoned metal mine failure risk evaluation approaches and quantification techniques based on the Canadian mining experience. These utilize clear geomechanics considerations such as failure mechanisms, which are dependent on well-defined rock mass parameters. Quantified risk is computed using probability of failure (probabilistics using limit-equilibrium factors of safety or applicable numerical modeling factor of safety quantifications) times a consequence impact value. Semi-quantified risk can be based on failure-case-study-based empirical data used in calculating probability of failure, and personal experience can provide qualified hazard and impact consequence assessments. The article provides outlines for land use and selection of remediation measures based on risk.     

Evaluating the Cost,Safety, and Proliferation Risks of Small Floating Nuclear Reactors

It is hard to see how our energy system can be decarbonized if the world abandons nuclear power, but equally hard to introduce the technology in nonnuclear energy states. This is especially true in countries with limited technical, institutional, and regulatory capabilities, where safety and proliferation concerns are acute. Given the need to achieve serious emissions mitigation by mid‐century, and the multidecadal effort required to develop robust nuclear governance institutions, we must look to other models that might facilitate nuclear plant deployment while mitigating the technology's risks. One such deployment paradigm is the build‐own‐operate‐return model. Because returning small land‐based reactors containing spent fuel is infeasible, we evaluate the cost, safety, and proliferation risks of a system in which small modular reactors are manufactured in a factory, and then deployed to a customer nation on a floating platform. This floating small modular reactor would be owned and operated by a single entity and returned unopened to the developed state for refueling. We developed a decision model that allows for a comparison of floating and land‐based alternatives considering key International Atomic Energy Agency plant‐siting criteria. Abandoning onsite refueling is beneficial, and floating reactors built in a central facility can potentially reduce the risk of cost overruns and the consequences of accidents. However, if the floating platform must be built to military‐grade specifications, then the cost would be much higher than a land‐based system. The analysis tool presented is flexible, and can assist planners in determining the scope of risks and uncertainty associated with different deployment options.     

Government,management and the environmental crisis

In case there should be any doubt that the human predicament will soon be a global crisis the reasons why this must be so are discussed. The increased use of resources and the growing dependence on a fuel-based technology are crisis enough, but to this is added the growing population of the part of the world less advanced in technology, where attitudes are different and cannot be changed to conform to the richer population's idea of what is what in the world.Most of our problems are created because the total effect of an operation is not properly considered when it is undertaken for the part that is wanted. Thus the rich countries have got themselves into a predicament the fault for which the poor see lying entirely with the rich, while the rich see the danger in the growing poor populations.The mechanism of evolution by selection from spontaneous variety must be followed because we cannot foresee needs. To keep the process healthy we must retain room for manoeuvre and choice and we must studiously avoid trying to operate monolithic technological ways of maintaining our society.Policies should seek to anticipate the imminent pressures of the future so as to retain freedom of movement, and the most obvious policy should be to make the price of fuel artificially high to conserve resources and stimulate the right kind of new technologies.     

Interstitial Lung Diseases in the U.S. Mining Industry: Using MSHA Data to Examine Trends and the Prevention Effects of Compliance with Health Regulations, 1996–2015

Given the recent increase in dust‐induced lung disease among U.S. coal miners and the respiratory hazards encountered across the U.S. mining industry, it is important to enhance an understanding of lung disease trends and the organizational contexts that precede these events. In addition to exploring overall trends reported to the Mine Safety and Health Administration (MSHA), the current study uses MSHA's enforcement database to examine whether or not compliance with health regulations resulted in fewer mine‐level counts of these diseases over time. The findings suggest that interstitial lung diseases were more prevalent in coal mines compared to other mining commodities, in Appalachian coal mines compared to the rest of the United States, and in underground compared to surface coal mines. Mines that followed a relevant subset of MSHA's health regulations were less likely to report a lung disease over time. The findings are discussed from a lung disease prevention strategy perspective.     

Bargains Rejected? Developing Country Trade Policy on Used Equipment

Many developing countries restrict imports of second-hand goods. These policies appear contrary to the optimal choice of technique in developing countries, where low wages, small markets, and scarce technical skills would appear to call for use of more labor intensive smaller scale, and lower-tech machines. This paper examines data on US exports of new and used metalworking machine tools by type and by country of destination to investigate the determinants of used versus new machinery trade. The results indicate that technological factors, skill constraints, and market size may be more important than factor prices in determining the choice of machine. Trade restrictions on used machinery distort firms' investment decisions.     

Bottleneck identification and ranking model for mine operations

Abstract

Mining has a long history of production and operations management. Considering the increasing complexity of reserves, declining metal grades, and worldwide price volatilities, mines have to operate more efficiently than ever. In recent years, companies have been adopting innovative solutions and technologies to reduce costs and remain competitive in the global market. Specifically, management of bottlenecks has been in the focus of the manufacturing industry for decades now. The mining industry has made significant advancements in process improvement tools using equipment, human, and asset tracking capabilities. However, to date, there is no holistic approach or system to identify and manage the bottleneck in the entire value chain of mining. This research proposes a new method to identify and rank the bottlenecks in a mine value chain. The method is applied in a coal mine and the results are presented in the case study.     

燃油税、融资约束与企业行为——基于DSGE模型的分析

征收燃油税在实现节能减排的同时也会增加企业的财务负担。如何在保护环境的同时减少对经济的冲击,有赖于对燃油税的科学评估。本文构建了一个包含燃油税和融资约束的随机动态一般均衡模型,并基于1995年第1季度至2018年第2季度的数据对相关参数进行了校准和估计,系统考察了融资约束下征收燃油税对环境经济以及企业行为的影响。研究结果发现：征收燃油税对促进节能减排有显著效果;但同时也会抑制消费、投资和产出,增加失业,对经济产生负影响。此外,融资约束会通过金融加速器的作用放大燃油税冲击的影响。而且,当融资约束越强时,降低燃油税对经济的刺激作用也越明显。     

基于跳跃-扩散过程的煤炭资源采矿权估价三因素模型

煤炭资源采矿权可以被认为是一个多期多阶段的复合看涨期权,煤炭价格、便利收益和利率的随机波动都对煤炭资源采矿权价值有较大的影响。基于期权理论,构建了煤炭价格服从跳跃-扩散过程,利率和便利收益服从均值回复过程的煤炭资源采矿权估价三因素模型。实例运用表明,该模型较单因素模型、双因素模型更能体现资源所有者的权益。随着采矿权有效期的临近,关于利率、便利收益、煤炭开采成本和煤炭价格的信息趋于透明,这些因素的变动对采矿权的影响逐渐减弱。     

The world food prospect

The global supply of food is now acting as a constraint on both population and economic growth. The worldwide scarcity of food in recent years has ked to soaring food prices. These in turn have contributed to rising death rates in the lowest income countries and, through efforts to check inflation, a global slowdown in economic growth. Thus, food has become not only a limit to future world growth but a very visible indicator of declining human welfare.In this paper the author demonstrates how the agricultural and nutritional advances of the last quarter century have ended on a resounding downbeat characterized by a falling fish catch, falling grain yields, increased infant mortality, falling food reserves, and price instability. Then he examines the way in which overpopulation, affluence inefficiency and political expediency have led virtually the entire world to heavy dependence on the North American breadbasket. Faced as we are with restraints on increased production—limited land, water, fuel, fertilizer, technology, capital, as well as ecological deterioration—one can only conclude that a vigorous global effort will be required to reverse the troublesome trends emerging during the seventies.     

基于复杂网络演化博弈的绿色消费者对新能源汽车扩散的影响研究

绿色消费行为是绿色产业发展的主要推动力。以市场需求侧与供给侧协调为思路,基于复杂网络演化博弈理论,构建新能源汽车扩散模型,研究绿色消费者对制造商微观决策与宏观新能源汽车扩散的影响。在小世界网络情境下进行仿真分析,结果表明：宏观上,绿色消费者溢价和绿色消费者比例的增加都能够促进新能源汽车扩散,但是二者的微观影响机制不同。绿色消费者溢价的增加总是使得演化稳定状态下所有制造商的平均收益都增加,而绿色消费者比例的增加可能导致所有制造商的平均收益都减少。在产业层面,绿色消费行为对新能源汽车扩散具有积极的促进作用,而在企业层面,绿色消费行为的作用并非总是积极的。因此,一方面,促进新能源汽车扩散需要加强对需求侧的重视。从扩大绿色消费者规模和提高绿色消费者溢价两方面考虑,政府应该通过制定激励机制或加大环保宣传等财税或非财税方式促使消费者环保意识的觉醒。另一方面,新能源汽车制造商应该制定恰当的营销策略促使绿色消费者对新能源汽车产生更多溢价;燃油汽车制造商能够从新能源汽车制造商的营销策略中搭便车,应避免与新能源汽车制造商进行恶性竞争。论文从影响因素和扩散机制两方面拓展了新能源汽车扩散理论研究体系,研究结论...     

Uncertainty and Variability in Health-Related Damages from Coal-Fired Power Plants in the United States

The health‐related damages associated with emissions from coal‐fired power plants can vary greatly across facilities as a function of plant, site, and population characteristics, but the degree of variability and the contributing factors have not been formally evaluated. In this study, we modeled the monetized damages associated with 407 coal‐fired power plants in the United States, focusing on premature mortality from fine particulate matter (PM_2.5). We applied a reduced‐form chemistry‐transport model accounting for primary PM_2.5 emissions and the influence of sulfur dioxide (SO₂) and nitrogen oxide (NO_x) emissions on secondary particulate formation. Outputs were linked with a concentration‐response function for PM_2.5‐related mortality that incorporated nonlinearities and model uncertainty. We valued mortality with a value of statistical life approach, characterizing and propagating uncertainties in all model elements. At the median of the plant‐specific uncertainty distributions, damages across plants ranged from $30,000 to $500,000 per ton of PM_2.5, $6,000 to $50,000 per ton of SO₂, $500 to $15,000 per ton of NO_x, and $0.02 to $1.57 per kilowatt‐hour of electricity generated. Variability in damages per ton of emissions was almost entirely explained by population exposure per unit emissions (intake fraction), which itself was related to atmospheric conditions and the population size at various distances from the power plant. Variability in damages per kilowatt‐hour was highly correlated with SO₂ emissions, related to fuel and control technology characteristics, but was also correlated with atmospheric conditions and population size at various distances. Our findings emphasize that control strategies that consider variability in damages across facilities would yield more efficient outcomes.     

Learning the Wealth of Nations

We study the evolution of market‐oriented policies over time and across countries. We consider a model in which own and neighbors' past experiences influence policy choices through their effect on policymakers' beliefs. We estimate the model using a large panel of countries and find that it fits a large fraction of the policy choices observed in the postwar data, including the slow adoption of liberal policies. Our model also predicts that there would be reversals to state intervention if nowadays the world was hit by a shock of the size of the Great Depression.     

Three energy scenarios for the United Kingdom

The general principles of constructing scenarios and using them to explore policy options have been described in an earlier paper¹. This paper summarizes the results of a preliminary examination of the three scenarios described there and referred to as ‘business-as-usual’, ‘technical-fix’ and ‘low-growth’. The investigation departs from conventional discussions of fuel policy in that it emphasizes the management of fuel demand, and the interaction between fuel demand and life-style, rather than emphasizing fuel supply policies. The relationship between life style and fuel demand can be quantified using the methods of energy analysis.² This method is capable of fine disaggregation and relatively high accuracy. However the aim of the studies reported here was to establish the range of feasible options and the types of policies needed to accomplish them. For this purpose high accuracy is not important so considerable data aggregation has been retained. The detailed analyses presented in this paper are estimated to be accurate to ±15 per cent.The first part of the paper sets out the analysis of the base year (1968) on which the future projections are based. This involves explaining the principles of energy analysis and the method of projection used. The next sections examine the three scenarios in some detail, starting with the estimation of fuel demand and then looking at the fuel supply and management policies needed.     

Third world oil and gas—Underexplored and underdeveloped

The oil reserves and the production potential from the developing countries are needed to complement those supplies which already exist as a result of the historical activities of the oil industry and those which are now being found in certain other parts of the world. The author argues that what is required in order to meet the challenge of developing a geographically more dispersed pattern of oil and gas production is the establishment of institutional and financial conditions for the exploration and exploitation of the Third World's resources.     

Analysing business opportunities in North Sea oil

Offshore activity in the North Sea is the first of a number of worldwide offshore developments that will take off in the next 10 years. Exploration is occurring at a dramatic rate off the coasts of a number of countries in South East Asia and is also taking place off the coast of Australia, Africa, South America, the United States and Canada. The North Sea will thus, in many cases, be the test bed for suppliers to the offshore industry. With all countries which have oil deposits off their coast being anxious to promote indigenous supply of products and services to the oil industry, competition in the world market will intensify. Only those companies who can establish their product and marketing strategies in the politically calm environment of the North Sea can hope to reap the rewards of what may turn out to be the world's fastest growing industrial market over the next 20 years.