Modeling Poliovirus Risks and the Legacy of Polio Eradication

This introduction to the special issue on modeling poliovirus risks provides context about historical efforts to manage polioviruses and reviews the insights from models developed to support risk management and policy development. Following an overview of the contents of the special issue, the introduction explores the road ahead and offers perspective on the legacy of polio eradication.     

World Health Organization Regional Assessments of the Risks of Poliovirus Outbreaks

While global polio eradication requires tremendous efforts in countries where wild polioviruses (WPVs) circulate, numerous outbreaks have occurred following WPV importation into previously polio‐free countries. Countries that have interrupted endemic WPV transmission should continue to conduct routine risk assessments and implement mitigation activities to maintain their polio‐free status as long as wild poliovirus circulates anywhere in the world. This article reviews the methods used by World Health Organization (WHO) regional offices to qualitatively assess risk of WPV outbreaks following an importation. We describe the strengths and weaknesses of various risk assessment approaches, and opportunities to harmonize approaches. These qualitative assessments broadly categorize risk as high, medium, or low using available national information related to susceptibility, the ability to rapidly detect WPV, and other population or program factors that influence transmission, which the regions characterize using polio vaccination coverage, surveillance data, and other indicators (e.g., sanitation), respectively. Data quality and adequacy represent a challenge in all regions. WHO regions differ with respect to the methods, processes, cut‐off values, and weighting used, which limits comparisons of risk assessment results among regions. Ongoing evaluation of indicators within regions and further harmonization of methods between regions are needed to effectively plan risk mitigation activities in a setting of finite resources for funding and continued WPV circulation.     

Risks of Paralytic Disease Due to Wild or Vaccine-Derived Poliovirus After Eradication

After the global eradication of wild polioviruses, the risk of paralytic poliomyelitis from polioviruses will still exist and require active management. Possible reintroductions of poliovirus that can spread rapidly in unprotected populations present challenges to policymakers. For example, at least one outbreak will likely occur due to circulation of a neurovirulent vaccine-derived poliovirus after discontinuation of oral poliovirus vaccine and also could possibly result from the escape of poliovirus from a laboratory or vaccine production facility or from an intentional act. In addition, continued vaccination with oral poliovirus vaccines would result in the continued occurrence of vaccine-associated paralytic poliomyelitis. The likelihood and impacts of reintroductions in the form of poliomyelitis outbreaks depend on the policy decisions and on the size and characteristics of the vulnerable population, which change over time. A plan for managing these risks must begin with an attempt to characterize and quantify them as a function of time. This article attempts to comprehensively characterize the risks, synthesize the existing data available for modeling them, and present quantitative risk estimates that can provide a starting point for informing policy decisions.     

Development and Consideration of Global Policies for Managing the Future Risks of Poliovirus Outbreaks: Insights and Lessons Learned Through Modeling

The success of the Global Polio Eradication Initiative promises to bring large benefits, including sustained improvements in quality of life (i.e., cases of paralytic disease and deaths avoided) and costs saved from cessation of vaccination. Obtaining and maintaining these benefits requires that policymakers manage the transition from the current massive use of oral poliovirus vaccine (OPV) to a world without OPV and free of the risks of potential future reintroductions of live polioviruses. This article describes the analytical journey that began in 2001 with a retrospective case study on polio risk management and led to development of dynamic integrated risk, economic, and decision analysis tools to inform global policies for managing the risks of polio. This analytical journey has provided several key insights and lessons learned that will be useful to future analysts involved in similar complex decision-making processes.     

转型期营销经理道德敏感性的影响因素研究——个人文化特征的视角

从个人文化特征的视角出发,构建了一个中国营销经理道德敏感性的影响因素模型.针对中国大陆营销经理,采用情景法进行了问卷调查.数据分析发现,权力欲在送礼情景下显著影响营销经理的道德敏感性,金钱欲、社会责任意识和商业道德教育在产品缺陷情景下显著影响营销经理的道德敏感性.同时,引入并检验了金钱欲、权力欲等若干新变量对营销道德决策的影响,针对中国大陆营销经理的研究弥补了社会文化差异对道德敏感性影响的研究空缺.     

中国企业对外直接投资的决定因素:基于制度视角的经验分析

本文结合中国经济转型时期的制度环境,对传统的国际折衷理论加以拓展,归纳出在中国经济转型的制度环境下,与企业对外直接投资决策密切相关的一系列特殊的制度因素,在此基础上建立一个中国企业对外直接投资决策的理论分析框架.然后以2006-2007年中国企业对外直接投资的微观数据为样本,对中国企业的对外直接投资的决策进行了多因素回归分析.实证结果表明,政府政策扶植、海外关系资源及自身融资能力对企业对外直接投资的动机和能力有重要影响.分类型研究表明,上述三种制度因素对贸易型、生产型、资源型和研发型对外直接投资的影响程度各有不同.     

Understanding the Determinants of Service Channel Preference in the Early Stages of Adoption: A Social Cognitive Perspective on Online Brokerage Services*

In today's increasingly technology‐mediated world, individuals are often confronted with a decision of whether to obtain services through online, self‐service technologies or traditional, nontechnological alternatives. Understanding the mechanisms by which consumers choose among these competing service channels represents an important concern for organizations, consumers, and Web site designers. This study develops a research model based on Social Cognitive Theory to explain and predict service channel preferences that arise in the early stages of adoption, before a consumer conducts business using a particular channel. The model is subsequently tested in the brokerage services context, using observations obtained via survey. Given the growing popularity of online investing combined with the challenging prospect of making optimal decisions in an inherently risky environment, the context offers insights of practical and theoretical importance. The results suggest that task‐specific self‐efficacy beliefs serve as the activating mechanism kicking off a chain of psychological events that entice consumers to favor a particular service channel. Higher levels of self‐efficacy induce individuals to prefer the online approach. In addition to its direct effect on preference for the online service channel, higher levels of self‐efficacy influence one's propensity to take risks and expectations of performance‐oriented rewards, which, in turn, sway consumers to favor the online service channel. Furthermore, self‐efficacy and perceptions concerning the credibility of online information interact to affect service channel preference. Consumers are more likely to prefer the online service channel when they view themselves as capable and perceive online sources to be credible. Implications for theory and practice are discussed in light of the findings.     

基于软环境视角的跨国公司内部知识转移影响因素研究

为了探求软环境视角下跨国公司内部母子公司之间双向知识转移的影响因素,本文构建出包含知识本体因素、子公司自身因素和母子公司之间关系因素三构面的整合模型,提出相应理论假设,并以跨国公司在华子公司为样本进行问卷调研和统计分析。实证结果表明,知识的复杂性,在华子公司中外派人员能力、培训措施和知识存量价值,以及母子公司之间正式整合机制、信任水平和组织距离对跨国公司内部母子公司之间双向知识转移具有显著影响。     

知识经济背景下平台型企业构建过程中的迭代创新模式——基于动态能力视角的双案例研究

知识经济背景下,平台型企业的构建及其创新模式成为学界和业界关注的热点。然而现有研究忽略了从过程视角对于创新模式演化发展的探讨,也未能凸显平台型企业情境的差异性。运用案例研究方法,本文聚焦于两家平台型企业的构建过程,基于动态能力视角,探究平台型企业构建过程中的迭代创新模式演化问题。研究发现:平台型企业构建情境的不同促进形成两条迭代创新模式演化路径;"位势—过程—路径"的动态能力三维分析框架能够有效解析迭代创新"开发—测量—认知"的动态循环过程;迭代创新模式演化也会影响平台型企业的构建以及动态能力价值的实现。本文研究结论对于平台型企业创新模式演化的内在规律及其运营实践具有较好的理论和实践价值。     

新时代农村治理视域下村干部应提升的五种思维能力

中国取得扶贫攻坚的胜利之后,农村需要实现更高水平的治理和更高质量的现代化发展,这就需要在其中发挥重要作用的村干部群体提升方向思维、技治思维、项目思维、市场思维和巧治理思维能力。为此,要加强对村干部的培训,注重选拔培养农村年轻干部,发挥年轻干部学习能力强、思维活跃的优势,还要采取措施继续强化对农村的干部输入,发挥输入型干部在眼界、思路等方面对农村发展的支持作用。     

新时代市民化视阈中新生代农民工职业胜任力实证研究

从新时代市民化中就业转型的工匠精神视角出发,运用结构方程模型研究敬业度对职业胜任力的作用机制,探究新农工的职业胜任力现状。研究结果表明:自我效能感在敬业度对新农工职业胜任力的作用路径中发挥部分中介作用。敬业度可以通过增强新农工的自我效能感,激发新农工积极的心理状态,从而提升新农工的职业胜任力,促进就业转型。这为新时代供给侧改革中"人的要素"供给等提供了新的视角。     

Testing Turbulence: Exploring the Determinants of Managerial Networking

A scholarly consensus holds that turbulent environments have damaging effects on public service performance. Turbulence, both internal and external organizations, has been demonstrated to negatively impact chances for organizations to meet goals and sometimes to survive. Less scholarly attention, however, is paid to how turbulence affects managerial strategy. This paper seeks to address how managerial strategy changes toward external environments and investigates what alternations managers make to combat turbulence. This question is theoretically and practically appropriate to comprehensively understand the effects of environmental turbulence for public organizations.     

Modeling Undetected Live Poliovirus Circulation After Apparent Interruption of Transmission: Pakistan and Afghanistan

Since most poliovirus infections occur with no paralytic symptoms, the possibility of silent circulation complicates the confirmation of the end of poliovirus transmission. Based on empirical field experience and theoretical modeling results, the Global Polio Eradication Initiative identified three years without observing paralytic cases from wild polioviruses with good acute flaccid paralysis surveillance as an indication of sufficient confidence that poliovirus circulation stopped. The complexities of real populations and the imperfect nature of real surveillance systems subsequently demonstrated the importance of specific modeling for areas at high risk of undetected circulation, resulting in varying periods of time required to obtain the same level of confidence about no undetected circulation. Using a poliovirus transmission model that accounts for variability in transmissibility and neurovirulence for different poliovirus serotypes and characterizes country‐specific factors (e.g., vaccination and surveillance activities, demographics) related to wild and vaccine‐derived poliovirus transmission in Pakistan and Afghanistan, we consider the probability of undetected poliovirus circulation for those countries once apparent die‐out occurs (i.e., in the absence of any epidemiological signals). We find that gaps in poliovirus surveillance or reaching elimination with borderline sufficient population immunity could significantly increase the time to reach high confidence about interruption of live poliovirus transmission, such that the path taken to achieve and maintain poliovirus elimination matters. Pakistan and Afghanistan will need to sustain high‐quality surveillance for polioviruses after apparent interruption of transmission and recognize that as efforts to identify cases or circulating live polioviruses decrease, the risks of undetected circulation increase and significantly delay the global polio endgame.     

Determinants of Union Membership: A Review

The recent drastic decline in trade union membership levels in most Western countries has led to renewed interest in the factors which influence the decision of employees to join unions. This paper discusses the strengths and weaknesses of the three main approaches: structural determinism, individual-level analysis, and conceptual models of trade union joining behaviour. Structural determinism is discussed in the context of the Bainian model and its various extensions. In contrast, the diverse findings in the field of individual-union joining behaviour is assessed by drawing on a comprehensive table comprising all variables examined in this area. The first two sections focus exclusively on trade union joining behaviour as the independent variable whereas the third part of the paper uses an individuals' voting behaviour in the USA. This focus was necessary due to the lack of causal models using union joining behaviour as their dependent variable. The author selects two of the most advanced models for a detailed analysis, and relates the findings to the preceding sections. It is the objective of the paper to critically evaluate the three approaches and their contributions towards understanding this complex field of research.     

Determinants of Interoutsourcing: An Analytical Approach

Interoutsourcing is a round‐way process in which the vendor is its customer's customer and the customer is its vendor's vendor. While interoutsourcing is emerging as a prominent outsourcing strategy in many industries, there are no rigorous analytical studies focusing on this mechanism. In this article, we analytically demonstrate the efficacy of interoutsourcing by comparing it with normal outsourcing. Our results show that, compared with normal outsourcing, interoutsourcing acts as a self‐enforcer of vendor firms' behaviors toward increasing outsourcing service value. However, in situations where there is a mismatch of outsourcing activities, a high degree of incentive that is based on outsourcing service value, and a high cost of capital, interoutsourcing is not preferred to normal outsourcing. We discuss these results in detail and provide managerial implications for firms involved in interoutsourcing decisions.     

Learning While Voting: Determinants of Collective Experimentation

This paper combines dynamic social choice and strategic experimentation to study the following question: How does a society, a committee, or, more generally, a group of individuals with potentially heterogeneous preferences, experiment with new opportunities? Each voter recognizes that, during experimentation, other voters also learn about their preferences. As a result, pivotal voters today are biased against experimentation because it reduces their likelihood of remaining pivotal. This phenomenon reduces equilibrium experimentation below the socially efficient level, and may even result in a negative option value of experimentation. However, one can restore efficiency by designing a voting rule that depends deterministically on time. Another main result is that even when payoffs of a reform are independently distributed across the population, good news about any individual's payoff increases other individuals' incentives to experiment with that reform, due to a positive voting externality.     

从赋能到使能——数字化环境下的企业运营管理

随着信息技术的迅猛发展,人类社会已经进入了一个以数字化为表征的新时代。围绕数字化带来的变革,本文就商务活动的经营环境、主体行为、产品以及产品创造过程等方面展开深入分析和探究,归纳、总结数字化环境下企业运营的一些典型特征。在此基础上,试图构建数字化环境下企业运营管理的理论框架和体系,并指出随着数字化程度的提高,变革呈现出从赋能向使能演进。进一步,就需求预测、产品设计、定价与库存管理、供应链管理等关键环节探讨数字化赋能提升企业运营效率的路径和方法;针对需求创造、业务设计、价值共创、供应链重构、生态圈构建等分析数字化使能如何更好地服务于消费者需求,创造更高的商业价值。