Risk Perception in Context: The Savannah River Site Stakeholder Study

Environmental managers are increasingly charged with involving the public in the development and modification of policies regarding risks to human health and the environment. Involving the public in environmental decision making first requires a broad understanding of how and why the public perceives various risks. The Savannah River Stakeholder Study was conducted with the purpose of investigating individual, economic, and social characteristics of risk perceptions among those living near the Savannah River Nuclear Weapons Site. A number of factors were found to impact risk perceptions among those living near the site. One's estimated proximity to the site and relative river location surfaced as strong determinants of risk perceptions among SRS residents. Additionally, living in a quality neighborhood and demonstrating a willingness to accept health risks for economic gain strongly abated heightened risk perceptions.The Consortium for Risk Evaluation with Stakeholder Participation (CRESP)The Consortium for Risk Evaluation with Stakeholder Participation (CRESP)The Consortium for Risk Evaluation with Stakeholder Participation (CRESP)     

Risk to Groundlings of Death Due to Airplane Accidents: A Risk Communication Tool

During the period 1975-85 in the United States the 70 year lifetime risk of dying from being hit by an airplane when the individual is on the ground was 4.2 per million people. In contrast to many other risks used for comparison purposes, risk to those on the ground from an airplane crash is not a function of our own skills; is not optional; provides no benefit to anyone involved; and is not an act of nature. As a risk comparison tool it also has the useful characteristics of being something about which we can agree that regulatory action, such as control of airplane use and traffic, is warranted; but that no significant change in personal behavior, such as living in the basement to protect against dying from a plane hitting the home, is commensurate with the extent of risk.     

Varying Risk Comparison Elements: Effects on Public Reactions

Expanding a limited empirical base on effects of risk comparisons, a pilot experiment explored how varying elements of such comparisons might influence public response. The scenario used was a hypothetical trial of an asbestos-installing firm for putting students and staff at a junior high school at "unreasonable risk," first used by Slovic et al. (1990). Study participants played the role of jurors in the trial, asked to rate the risk, the firm's guilt, whether it should be made liable for future health effects, whether the school should be occupied in its current condition, and whether the asbestos should be removed at a cost of 3 million dollars. Opportunity samples of New Jersey residents (n= 309) received information intended to vary four comparison attributes: number of dimensions of comparison; single versus multiple ways of expressing mortality; a narrative to explain and justify the risk comparison; and the hypothetical role of the participant (juror vs. parent). The dependent variable was a hazard scale constructed from four of the five postcomparison judgments. ANOVA found format variations swamped in their effect by concern about asbestos, with the absence of a narrative and the parental role being the only attributes that increased negative risk reactions. Multiple regression analyses found that multidimensionality, narrative, role, and the presence of any risk comparison at all had significant effects when these (plus death formats) were the only independent variables. However, only multidimensionality (which increased negative reactions) retained significance when asbestos concern, risk beliefs (no safe level of exposure to a carcinogen; any exposure leads to cancer), and demographic variables were added to the analysis. Concern and risk beliefs alone explained 33% of variance in hazard scores; adding demographics and risk comparison variables only raised explained variance to 36% (having children at home and being exposed to multidimensional risk comparisons raised scores; age and income lowered them). The results underline the potentially small effect of risk comparison information on risk views (at least between subjects), but offer some insight into aspects of message design left unexplored in empirical literature to date.     

Multiple Health Risk Perception and Information Processing Among African Americans and Whites Living in Poverty

We investigated the risk‐information‐processing behaviors of people living at or near the poverty line. Because significant gaps in health and communication exist among high‐ and low‐income groups, increasing the information seeking and knowledge of poor individuals may help them better understand risks to their health and increase their engagement in health‐protective behaviors. Most earlier studies assessed only a single health risk selected by the researcher, whereas we listed 10 health risks and allowed the respondents to identify the one that they worried about most but took little action to prevent. Using this risk, we tested one pathway inspired by the risk information seeking and processing model to examine predictors of information insufficiency and of systematic processing and extended this pathway to include health‐protective action. A phone survey was conducted of African Americans and whites living in the southern United States with an annual income of ≤$35,000 (N= 431). The results supported the model pathway: worry partially mediated the relationship between perceived risk and information insufficiency, which, in turn, increased systematic processing. In addition, systematic processing increased health‐protective action. Compared with whites and better educated respondents, African Americans and respondents with little education had significantly higher levels of information insufficiency but higher levels of systematic processing and health‐protective action. That systematic processing and knowledge influenced health behavior suggests a potential strategy for reducing health disparities.     

Risk Criteria for Nuclear Power Plants: A Pragmatic Proposal1

Criteria are proposed for both an acceptable upper bound of nuclear power plant risk and a lower bound as a design target. Recognizing that the public risk associated with a power plant can be estimated only by probabilistic analysis of the design features, the spread between the lower design target and the upper bound provides a margin for uncertainty in th probabilistic estimate. The combination of a low probabilistic design target and this margin provides a reasonable expectation that the overall performance will be in the domain of an acceptable risk level. Because the exposure to potential risk is chiefly in the locality of the nuclear station, it is also proposed that compensatory benefits should be provided locally and that these be included as a cost of operation. It is suggested that the upper bound be set at a risk level equivalent to those risks of routine living which are normally accepted, i.e., about 10^-4 deaths per year per person (100 deaths/yr/million). The proposed lower design target is 10^-8 (0.1 deaths/yr/million), about one-hundredth of the minimal risk from the natural hazards all people are exposed to.     

Living with Nuclear Power: A Q-Method Study of Local Community Perceptions

The issue of new nuclear power is once again high up on the public policy agenda in many countries, and candidate sites for new civilian stations are likely to include those that have existing nuclear facilities. A common assumption is that existing nuclear communities will be more accepting of new build because of the direct economic and other benefits nuclear power already makes to a local area. Surprisingly, there is a dearth of contemporary data on perceptions of the risks, benefits, and values associated with nuclear power within such communities. This study uses Q-methodology to investigate the perspectives on living with nuclear risk among people ( n  = 84) drawn from communities near to two nuclear power stations in the United Kingdom. Both stations, at Bradwell-on-Sea and Oldbury-on-Severn, had been in operation for over 40 years. The Q-analysis identified four main perspectives, or points of view, accounting for 53% of total variance. These were interpreted as: Beneficial and Safe; Threat and Distrust; Reluctant Acceptance; and There's No Point Worrying. We conclude that the "landscape of beliefs" about nuclear power in such communities is both subtle and complex, avoiding simplistic bipolar dichotomies such as "for" or "against," and that there is a need for extensive and meaningful dialogue with such communities over any new build plans. The usefulness of Q-methodology for investigating the ways in which people live with risk is highlighted, as are the implications of the results for theories of risk and trust.     

Stability and Inoculation of Risk Comparisons'' Effects Under Conflict: Replicating and Extending the "Asbestos Jury" Study by Slovic et al.

Promotion or criticism of risk comparisons in risk communication has far exceeded empirical tests of their effects. Slovic et al. (1990) experimented with a hypothetical jury trial in which an asbestos-installing firm was accused of subjecting school occupants to unreasonable risk. A risk comparison sharply reduced subjects' estimates of risk and judgments that the firm was guilty, but a critique of the risk comparison had risk estimates and guilt judgments rebounding to the original (without risk comparison) level. Slovic et al. concluded that risk comparisons' effects were highly unstable, at least in conflict-ridden situations such as a jury trial. The present study replicates and extends this important study, using the same stimuli and questions. The respective effects of the risk comparison and the critique recurred, although much less sharply than in Slovic et al. Moreover, judgments of guilt, risk, and other aspects of the case seemed shaped more by demographics and beliefs about risk generically (e.g., about the likelihood of cancer after exposure to a carcinogen) than by either risk comparison or critique. A variant design, in which the defense's expert witness dismissed potential criticisms of the risk comparison, appeared to "inoculate" people against shifting their views after seeing the critique. Overall, these results show that risk comparisons might change some beliefs about risks in conflict and that "inoculation" can reduce vulnerability to criticism. However, the results also show strong limits on effects of both comparisons and their critiques: they shifted only a minority of judgments and had small effects relative to people's social locations and prior risk beliefs.     

Asset Decommissioning Risk Metrics for Floating Structures in the Gulf of Mexico

Public companies in the United States are required to report standardized values of their proved reserves and asset retirement obligations on an annual basis. When compared, these two measures provide an aggregate indicator of corporate decommissioning risk but, because of their consolidated nature, cannot readily be decomposed at a more granular level. The purpose of this article is to introduce a decommissioning risk metric defined in terms of the ratio of the expected value of an asset's reserves to its expected cost of decommissioning. Asset decommissioning risk (ADR) is more difficult to compute than a consolidated corporate risk measure, but can be used to quantify the decommissioning risk of structures and to perform regional comparisons, and also provides market signals of future decommissioning activity. We formalize two risk metrics for decommissioning and apply the ADR metric to the deepwater Gulf of Mexico (GOM) floater inventory. Deepwater oil and gas structures are expensive to construct, and at the end of their useful life, will be expensive to decommission. The value of proved reserves for the 42 floating structures in the GOM circa January 2013 is estimated to range between $37 and $80 billion for future oil prices between 60 and 120 $/bbl, which is about 10 to 20 times greater than the estimated $4.3 billion to decommission the inventory. Eni's Allegheny and MC Offshore's Jolliet tension leg platforms have ADR metrics less than one and are approaching the end of their useful life. Application of the proposed metrics in the regulatory review of supplemental bonding requirements in the U.S. Outer Continental Shelf is suggested to complement the current suite of financial metrics employed.     

Testing and Expanding a Model of Cognitive Processing of Risk Information

Scholars have begun to explore the role of modes of information processing and related audience characteristics in reactions to risky situations and risk information.((11, 12, 14, 17, 18, 20))"Information processing" concerns how people attend to and consider available information: systematic processors analyze messages and situations carefully, while heuristic processors skim and use cues (e.g., opinions of trusted reference groups) for quick judgments. This article uses scenarios about a semi-hypothetical industrial facility, in particular risk comparisons being considered by its manager for inclusion in a talk to the community, to explore the impact of information processing. Information insufficiency, self-assessed capacity to understand information, and information-seeking propensities are tested for potential effects on information processing about industrial risks by people living near industry. As well as testing established models, this article explores the additional explanatory value of involvement, relevance, and ability (Earle et al., 1990) and objective knowledge. Both existing model variables and new ones have significant effects on information seeking and information processing in this case, and partly confirm earlier results. Trumbo((17,18)) found that heuristic processors saw lower risk and systematic processors higher risk from suspected cancer clusters. In this study, reporting knowledge about local industrial risks as insufficient for one's purposes and self-reported avoidance of such information both raised ratings of the facility's risk and lowered ratings of its acceptability. Neither type of information processing significantly affected risk or acceptability judgments, but both increased risk ratings and heuristic processing had more effect than systematic processing. Positive ratings of risk comparisons' clarity and meaningfulness decreased risk and increased acceptability ratings, dominated other information variables in predictive power, and exceeded risk, benefit, and trust in contribution to acceptability judgments. Despite differences across studies in designs and variables, and the embryonic development of appropriate (self-reported) measures for use in field surveys, these results confirm the potential value of further research in how information seeking and processing affect risk beliefs and reactions to risk communications.     

The Perceived Health Risks of Indoor Radon Gas and Overhead Powerlines: A Comparative Multilevel Approach

Radon and overhead powerlines are two radiation risk cases that have raised varying levels of concern among the general public and experts. Despite both involving radiation—a typically feared and unseen health hazard—individuals' perceptions of the two risk cases may invoke rather different factors. We examined individual and geographic-contextual factors influencing public perceptions of the health risks of indoor radon gas and overhead powerlines in a comparative research design, utilizing a postal questionnaire with 1,528 members of the general public (response rate 28%) and multilevel modeling techniques. This study found that beliefs about the two risk cases mainly differed according to the level of "exposure"—defined here in terms of spatial proximity. We argue that there are two alternative explanations for this pattern of findings: that risk perception itself varies directly with proximity, or that risk is more salient to concerned people in the exposed areas. We also found that while people living in high radon areas are more concerned about the risks of indoor radon gas, they find these risks more acceptable and have more trust in authorities. These results might reflect the positive effects of successive radon campaigns in high radon areas, which may have raised awareness and concern, and at the same time may have helped to increase trust by showing that the government takes the health risks of indoor radon gas seriously, suggesting that genuine risk communication initiatives may have positive impacts on trust in risk management institutions.     

Determinants of Risk Perceptions of a Hazardous Waste Site

A before-stimulus-after quasi-experimental design is used to assess the factors relating to risk perceptions of a hazardous waste site. First, a pretest obtains measures of attitudes and beliefs about hazardous waste and waste sites. Second, a detailed hypothetical "Superfund" scenario, including a complex cleanup plan, is introduced. Finally, indices of health risk estimates, trust, knowledge, and other pertinent beliefs are obtained. Levels of concern, both before and after cleanup, are the dependent variables. Independent variables include risk management options, health risk estimates, trust, and five sociodemographic characteristics. Concern is extremely high prior to cleanup and moderately high after cleanup. Concern is a clear function of health risk estimates. Toxic chemicals from waste sites are viewed as a major cause of multiple health problems, especially cancers. Accurate health risk estimates moderate fears and are linked to levels of education. Education, however, does not explain concern. Trust is a major factor explaining concern and health risk estimates. The implications of these findings for risk communication is discussed.     

Public Perception of the Risks of Floods: Implications for Communication

Floods in the U.S. kill an average of 162 people each year and cause $3.4 billion in property damage. Flood control programs have been successful in lowering, but not eliminating, the risks to lives and property. Since the late 1960s, the federal government has emphasized flood insurance as a primary tool for improving location and flood-proofing decisions, as well as for reimbursing flood losses. Since only 12.7% of houses in flood plain areas are covered by flood insurance, the program has been ineffective. We interviewed people living in three communities that had recently been flooded. Most people had little knowledge of the cause of floods or what could be done to prevent damage. People who work and who are better educated know more and are more likely to have flood insurance. Current government publications about flood risks are not likely to be understood by those at risk. There is little effective communication about the nature and magnitude of the risks and what individuals can do to protect their lives and property and lower their financial risks. The risk management program should both emphasize communication and enforcement of the current law requiring people at risk who hold federally funded loans to be insured.     

The Effect of Graphics on Environmental Health Risk Beliefs, Emotions, Behavioral Intentions, and Recall

Lay people have difficulty understanding the meaning of environmental health risk information. Visual images can use features that leverage visual perception capabilities and semiotic conventions to promote meaningful comprehension. Such evidence-based features were employed to develop two images of a color-coded visual scale to convey drinking water test results. The effect of these images and a typical alphanumeric (AN) lab report were explored in a repeated measures randomized trial among 261 undergraduates. Outcome measures included risk beliefs, emotions, personal safety threshold, mitigation intentions, the durability of beliefs and intentions over time, and test result recall. The plain image conveyed the strongest risk message overall, likely due to increased visual salience. The more detailed graded image conveyed a stronger message than the AN format only for females. Images only prompted meaningful risk reduction intentions among participants with optimistically biased safety threshold beliefs. Fuzzy trace theory supported some findings as follow. Images appeared to promote the consolidation of beliefs over time from an initial meaning of safety to an integrated meaning of safety and health risk; emotion potentially shaped this process. Although the AN report fostered more accurate recall, images were related to more appropriate beliefs and intentions at both time points. Findings hinted at the potential for images to prompt appropriate beliefs independent of accurate factual knowledge. Overall, results indicate that images facilitated meaningful comprehension of environmental health risk information and suggest foci for further research.     

“These Power Lines Make Me Ill”: A Typology of Residents’ Health Responses to a New High‐Voltage Power Line

Little attention has been devoted to the potential diversity in residents’ health responses when exposed to an uncertain environmental health risk. The present study explores whether subgroups of residents respond differently to a new high‐voltage power line (HVPL) being put into operation. We used a quasi‐experimental prospective field study design with two pretests during the construction of a new HVPL, and two posttests after it was put into operation. Residents living nearby (0–300 m, n = 229) filled out questionnaires about their health and their perception of the environment. We applied latent class growth models to investigate heterogeneity in the belief that health complaints were caused by a power line. Classes were compared on a wide range of variables relating to negative‐oriented personality traits, perceived physical and mental health, and perceptions of the environment. We identified five distinct classes of residents, of which the largest (49%) could be described as emotionally stable and healthy with weak responses to the introduction of a new power line. A considerable minority (9%) responded more strongly to the new line being activated. Residents in this class had heard more about the health effects of power lines beforehand, were more aware of the activation of the new line, and reported a decrease in perceived health afterwards. Based on our findings we can conclude that there is a considerable heterogeneity in health responses to a new HVPL. Health risk perceptions appear to play an important role in this typology, which has implications for risk management.     

Perception of Risks From Electromagnetic Fields: A Psychometric Evaluation of a Risk-Communication Approach

Potential health risks from exposure to power-frequency electromagnetic fields (EMF) have become an issue of significant public concern. This study evaluates a brochure designed to communicate EMF health risks from a scientific perspective. The study utilized a pretest-posttest design in which respondents judged various sources of EMF (and other) health and safety risks, both before reading the brochure and after. Respondents assessed risks on dimensions similar to those utilized in previous studies of risk perception. In addition, detailed ratings were made that probed respondents' beliefs about the possible causal effects of EMF exposure. The findings suggest that naive beliefs about the potential of EMF exposure to cause harm were highly influenced by specific content elements of the brochure. The implications for using risk-communication approaches based on communicating scientific uncertainty are discussed.     

Dead Reckoning: Demographic Determinants of the Accuracy of Mortality Risk Perceptions

General patterns of bias in risk beliefs are well established in the literature, but much less is known about how these biases vary across the population. Using a sample of almost 500 people, the regression analysis in this article yields results consistent with the well-established pattern that small risks are overassessed and large risks are underassessed. The accuracy of these risk beliefs varies across demographic factors, as does the switch point at which people go from underassessment to overassessment, which we found to be 1500 deaths annually for the full sample. Better educated people have more accurate risk beliefs, and there are important differences in the risk perception by race and gender that also may be of policy interest.     

Reassessing the human health benefits from cleaner air

Recent proposals to further reduce permitted levels of air pollution emissions are supported by high projected values of resulting public health benefits. For example, the Environmental Protection Agency recently estimated that the 1990 Clean Air Act Amendment (CAAA) will produce human health benefits in 2020, from reduced mortality rates, valued at nearly $2 trillion per year, compared to compliance costs of $65 billion ($0.065 trillion). However, while compliance costs can be measured, health benefits are unproved: they depend on a series of uncertain assumptions. Among these are that additional life expectancy gained by a beneficiary (with median age of about 80 years) should be valued at about $80,000 per month; that there is a 100% probability that a positive, linear, no-threshold, causal relation exists between PM(2.5) concentration and mortality risk; and that progress in medicine and disease prevention will not greatly diminish this relationship. We present an alternative uncertainty analysis that assigns a positive probability of error to each assumption. This discrete uncertainty analysis suggests (with probability >90% under plausible alternative assumptions) that the costs of CAAA exceed its benefits. Thus, instead of suggesting to policymakers that CAAA benefits are almost certainly far larger than its costs, we believe that accuracy requires acknowledging that the costs purchase a relatively uncertain, possibly much smaller, benefit. The difference between these contrasting conclusions is driven by different approaches to uncertainty analysis, that is, excluding or including discrete uncertainties about the main assumptions required for nonzero health benefits to exist at all.     

Factors Motivating Individuals to Take Precautionary Action for an Expected Earthquake in Istanbul

Istanbul is expected to experience an earthquake in the near future, but individuals show limited interest in preparing for it. This study aims to identify the factors associated with taking action to prepare for an earthquake and mitigate its effects at the individual level. A field survey was carried out in 2007 in two districts of Istanbul with different levels of earthquake risk. Within these districts, three socioeconomic levels were considered. A total of 1,123 people were interviewed face to face. Analysis indicated that the educational level of the respondents was the leading factor associated with taking at least three measures, followed by living in a higher earthquake risk area, having participated in rescue and solidarity activities in previous earthquakes, a higher level of knowledge about earthquakes, home ownership, a higher score for action‐stimulating attitudes, being younger, and a higher general safety score, in that order. The findings pointed to the role of knowledge about earthquakes and possible mitigation/preparedness measures, and thus the importance of developing effective awareness programs. Such programs should also consider the characteristics of different groups in the population. Motivated individuals, such as those who have participated in rescue and solidarity activities in previous earthquakes, could be involved in reaching other people.     

Context,Cultural Bias,and Health Risk Perception: The “Everyday” Nature of Pesticide Policy Preferences in London,Calgary, and Halifax

Risk perception and the cultural theory of risk have often been contrasted in relation to risk‐related policy making; however, the local context in which risks are experienced, an important component of everyday decision making, remains understudied. What is unclear is the extent to which localized community beliefs and behaviors depend on larger belief systems about risk (i.e., worldviews). This article reports on a study designed to understand the relative importance of health risk perceptions (threat of harm); risk‐related worldviews (cultural biases); and the experiences of local context (situated risk) for predicting risk‐related policy preferences regarding cosmetic pesticides. Responses to a random telephone questionnaire are used to compare residents’ risk perceptions, cultural biases, and pesticide bylaw preferences in Calgary (Alberta), Halifax (Nova Scotia), and London (Ontario), Canada. Logistic regression shows that the most important determinants of pesticide bylaw preference are risk perception, lack of benefit, and pesticide “abstinence.” Though perception of health risk is the best single predictor of differences in bylaw preferences, social factors such as gender and situated risk factors like conflict over chemical pesticides, are also important. Though cultural biases are not important predictors of pesticide bylaw preference, as in other studies, they are significant predictors of health risk perception. Pesticide bylaw preference is therefore more than just a health risk perception or worldview issue; it is also about how health risk becomes situated—contextually—in the experiences of residents’ everyday lives.     

Assessing the Benefits and Costs of Homeland Security Research: A Risk-Informed Methodology with Applications for the U.S. Coast Guard

This article describes a methodology for risk-informed benefit–cost analyses of homeland security research products. The methodology is field-tested with 10 research products developed for the U.S. Coast Guard. Risk-informed benefit–cost analysis is a tool for risk management that integrates elements of risk analysis, decision analysis, and benefit–cost analysis. The cost analysis methodology includes a full-cost accounting of research projects, starting with initial fundamental research costs and extending to the costs of implementation of the research products and, where applicable, training, maintenance, and upgrade costs. The benefits analysis methodology is driven by changes in costs and risks leading to five alternative models: cost savings at the same level of security, increased security at the same cost, signal detection improvements, risk reduction by deterrence, and value of information. The U.S. Coast Guard staff selected 10 research projects to test and generalize the methodology. Examples include tools to improve the detection of explosives, reduce the costs of harbor patrols, and provide better predictions of hurricane wind speeds and floods. Benefits models and estimates varied by research project and many input parameters of the benefit estimates were highly uncertain, so risk analysis for sensitivity testing and simulation was important. Aggregating across the 10 research products, we found an overall median net present value of about $385 million, with a range from $54 million (5th percentile) to $877 million (95th percentile). Lessons learned are provided for future applications.