Social Investment Policies and Childbearing Across 20 Countries: Longitudinal and Micro-Level Analyses

This study analyses the influence of family policies on women’s first and second births in 20 countries over the period 1995 to 2007. Welfare states have shifted towards social investment policies, yet family policy–fertility research has not explicitly considered this development. We distinguish between social investment-oriented and passive support that families may receive upon the birth of a child and consider changes in policies over time. These indicators are merged with fertility histories provided by harmonized individual-level data, and we use time-conditioned, fixed effects linear probability models. We find higher social investment-oriented support to be correlated with increased first birth probabilities, in contrast to passive family support. First birth probabilities particularly declined with higher passive family support for women over age 30, which points to a potential increase in childlessness. Social investment-oriented support is positively related to first and second births particularly for lower-educated women and has no relationship to childbirth for highly educated women, countering the Matthew-effect assumptions about social investment policies. Passive support is negatively related to second births for post-secondary educated women and those who are studying. Family policies that support women’s employment and labour market attachment are positively linked to family expansion and these policies minimize educational differences in childbearing.Electronic supplementary materialThe online version of this article (10.1007/s10680-022-09626-3) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.     

Late,But Not Too Late? Postponement of First Birth Among Highly Educated US Women

We examine the link between the postponement of parenthood and fertility outcomes among highly educated women in the USA born in 1920–1986, using data from the CPS June Supplement 1979–2016. We argue that the postponement–low fertility nexus noted in demographic and biomedical research is especially relevant for women who pursue postgraduate education because of the potential overlap of education completion, early career stages, and family formation. The results show that women with postgraduate education differ from women with college education in terms of the timing of the first birth, childlessness, and completed fertility. While the postponement trend, which began with the cohorts born in the 1940s, has continued among highly educated women in the USA, its associations with childlessness and completed parity have changed considerably over subsequent cohorts. We delineate five distinct postponement phases over the 80-year observation window, consistent with variation over time in the prevalence of strategies for combining tertiary education and employment with family formation.     

Demographic change and the supply of potential family supporters in Britain, Finland and France in the period 1911–2050/Changements démographiques et disponibilité des soutiens familiaux en Grande-Bretagne, en Finlande et en France entre 1911 et 2050

We consider the contribution of changes in mortality and fertility to availability of living mothers and living children among older people in Britain, Finland and France. The proportion of people aged around 60 with a mother alive will more than double between those born in 1911 and 1970 before starting to decline slightly. Conversely, a higher proportion of elderly people are likely to have a surviving child than for any generation ever born in all three countries in the next quarter century or so, with about 85% of 80-year-old women having at least one surviving child, and about two-thirds having two or more.     

The Well-Being of Adolescents Conceived Through Medically Assisted Reproduction: A Population-Level and Within-Family Analysis

Medically assisted reproduction (MAR) plays an increasingly important role in the realization of fertility intentions in advanced societies, yet the evidence regarding MAR-conceived children’s longer-term well-being remains inconclusive. Using register data on all Finnish children born in 1995–2000, we compared a range of social and mental health outcomes among MAR- and naturally conceived adolescents in population-averaged estimates, and within families who have conceived both through MAR and naturally. In baseline models, MAR-conceived adolescents had better school performance and the likelihood of school dropout, not being in education or employment, and early home-leaving were lower than among naturally conceived adolescents. No major differences were found in mental health and high-risk health behaviours. Adjustment for family sociodemographic characteristics attenuated MAR adolescents’ advantage in social outcomes, while increasing the risk of mental disorders. The higher probability of mental disorders persisted when comparing MAR adolescents to their naturally conceived siblings. On average, MAR adolescents had similar or better outcomes than naturally conceived adolescents, largely due to their more advantaged family backgrounds, which underscores the importance of integrating a sociodemographic perspective in studies of MAR and its consequences.     

Sub-Replacement Fertility Intentions in Austria

Combining the data of the 1986–2001 Microcensus surveys, I reconstruct trends in fertility intentions across time and over the life course of Austrian women born since the 1950s. Young adults in Austria expressed fertility intentions that were below the replacement-level threshold as early as in 1986 and women born since the mid-1950s consistently desired fewer than two children on average throughout their reproductive lives. A two-child family norm, however, still clearly dominates the fertility intentions of different age, cohort and education groups. Uncertainty about childbearing intentions is rather common, especially among younger and childless respondents. Different assumptions about reproductive preferences of undecided respondents affect estimates of the mean intended family size. Although Austrians were among the first in Europe to express low fertility intentions, their position is no longer unique. By the early 2000s, young women in a number of other European countries also expressed sub-replacement fertility intentions.     

生育意愿的代际差异分析 ———以江苏省为例

利用江苏省"生育意愿和生育行为研究"调查数据,文章从意愿生育子女数、意愿子女性别、意愿生育年龄等三个维度出发,考察了不同代际(60后、70后、80后)育龄妇女生育意愿和生育观念的差异.研究发现,80年代出生的育龄妇女少生、晚生、优生的意愿趋势明显,以孩子为中心的观念也在弱化,性别选择更趋向无偏好化.新型生育文化及观念在我国发达的农村地区已成现实,这些事实对生育政策的调整具有重要参考意义.     

Did the Economic Crisis Cause the Fertility Decline in Russia: Evidence from the 1994 Microcensus

Between 1989 and 1993, the total fertility rate inRussia dropped from 2.01 to 1.38, a fall ofunprecedented size in peacetime. The more commonexplanation asserts that the fertility decrease is thepopulation's response to the socio-economic crisisoccurring in the country. The alternative hypothesisstates that the fertility decrease is just acontinuation of the long-term trend, while the crisishas accelerated this process. On the basis ofindividual data obtained in the 1994 microcensus,which involved 5 per cent of Russia's population, thispaper attempts to find arguments for and against eachof the two hypotheses The analysis is based onquestionnaires of 798 thousand women born between 1959and 1975. Three indicators of fertility areinvestigated: frequency of birth in 1993, expectednumber of children, and desired number of children.These indicators are linked to 28 backgroundcharacteristics, including marital status, number ofchildren ever born, ethnicity, level of education,housing condition, and income level. The data do notreveal essential fertility differentiation by economicstatus, which would be present of the first hypothesiswere right. At the same time, a clear connection isfound between the frequency of births in 1993 and suchsocio-cultural markers as living in town orcountryside, ethnicity, and the desired number ofchildren. In addition, 1993 fertility actuallyconforms to women's opinions about the number ofchildren they intend to have. These results cast doubton the hypothesis that the economic crisis is the mainand only cause of the recent fertility decrease inRussia.     

The Delayed Fertility Transition in North-East Italy

The transitional decline of fertility in Italy has never been studied using micro-data, with the exception of small areas. For the first time, we use individual retrospective fertility data collected for all the ever married women living in 20 % of households subjected to census in 1971 in the Veneto region (North-East Italy), a ‘late-comer’ area in the context of Western European fertility decline (TFR = 5.0 in 1871 and 1921, 2.5 in 1951 and 1971). In order to consider broad explanations of fertility decline, we combine individual retrospective data with other information available at two territorial levels (58 districts and 582 municipalities), using a three-level clustered regression model (district, municipality, woman). The main results are: (1) even if the (few) women with 8 + years of schooling born in the last decades of the nineteenth century already had a TFR around two, this value is not seen among women with low levels of education until those born 50 years later; (2) the link between fertility and secularization strengthens cohort after cohort, whereas the connections between fertility and industrialization and fertility and urbanization weaken; (3) throughout the period, the statistical inverse relationship between education and fertility is strong, both at the territorial and individual level.     

Grandparenting and Childbearing in the Extended Family

The study analyzes the role of grandparents’ childcare provision on their adult children’s fertility behavior using data from the Survey of Health, Aging and Retirement in Europe (SHARE) for eleven European countries. An important innovation is that we take into account siblings’ fertility behavior and share of grandparents’ time in terms of childcare. We show that availability of grandparents plays an important role in individuals’ decision of having children. Being helped by grandparents increases the chance of childbearing when existing grandchildren are not too young. On the other hand, the probability of having a child is lower when grandparents are already looking after a sibling’s young child. The role of grandparenting appears stronger in the South of Europe, where public childcare for young children is less prevalent.     

Pathways to a Third Child in Sweden

The transition from two to three children is investigated, using data on Swedish women's fertility behaviour and labour force participation over a period of some 20 years ending in 1992/93. Two questions are examined: what is the relationship between working life and childbearing of two-child mothers? Are there differences in fertility between cohabiting and married couples? Several paths to the third child are identified, one of women with a university education and another of women with preference for more children, reflected by marriage after having the first or the second child or by persistent working experience followed by household work.     

The Positive Effect of Women’s Education on Fertility in Low-Fertility China

European Journal of Population - Despite pervasive evidence of more educated women having lower fertility, it remains unclear whether education reduces women’s fertility. This study presents...     

The Multifaceted Impact of Education on Entry into Motherhood

This article studies the composite effect of education on young women’s entry into motherhood, using longitudinal data from Norway from 1971 to 2001. In line with previous research, we find that school enrolment delays motherhood, but having finished education there is a catching-up effect, as women who have completed at higher levels have their first child sooner than women who have completed at lower levels. Contrasting behaviour between women within various fields of education further indicate a career-adjustment effect related to differences in opportunity costs and/or preference heterogeneity. Finally, increasing educational differences in the timing of motherhood among younger cohorts suggest that long parental leaves and generous family benefits may fit better with a career track in some jobs than others.Lappegård T. et Rønsen M., 2005, The multifaceted impact of education on entry into motherhood, European Journal of Population 21: 31–49Lappegård T. et Rønsen M., 2005, Les multiples facettes de l’effet de l’instruction sur la maternité, Revue Européenne de Démographie, 21: 31–49     

Why do Socioeconomic Differences in Women’s Living Standards Converge After Union Dissolution?

Union dissolution is a critical event for women’s living standards. Previous work has found that women in high-income unions lose more from union dissolution than women in low-income unions. This study proposes two mechanisms to explain this “convergence” in living standards. The compensation mechanism concerns the ability to compensate the loss of partner earnings with alternative sources of income, whereas the partner independence mechanism concerns how much women stand to lose from dissolution in the first place. To test these mechanisms, the author drew on a unique administrative dataset from the Netherlands, covering women who experienced dissolution within ten years after union formation (N = 57,960). A decomposition analysis showed that convergence was not driven by compensation: women from all income groups decreased their household size and re-partnered, women from low-income unions increased transfer income, and women from high-income unions increased personal earnings and decreased tax payments. Instead, convergence was driven by partner independence: women from lower-income unions depended relatively less on their partners because they relied more on transfer income prior to dissolution. These results demonstrate how partners’ interdependence moderates the consequences of life events. The welfare state plays a crucial role in this process.     

The Gendered Effects of Divorce on Mothers’ and Fathers’ Time with Children and Children’s Developmental Activities: A Longitudinal Study

How divorce influences parents’ and children’s time use has received very little scientific attention. This study uses high-quality longitudinal time-diary data across six waves from the Longitudinal Study of Australian Children to examine how parental separation shapes parent–child time and children’s daily activities. Results show that separation leads to a strong increase of gender inequalities in parents’ time use. After separation, mother–child time doubles, two-parent time declines by three, and father–child time remains low. Parental separation also leads to a decline in children’s time allocated to educational activities (e.g., studying, reading) and an increase in children’s time in unstructured activities (e.g., TV watching, video gaming, smartphone use). Additionally, the effect of separation on children’s time use is twice as large for boys than for girls, with gender gaps in children’s unstructured time increasing over time. Finally, mother–child time returns to similar pre-separation levels over time, but only after 4 years since separation occurred. The study findings are robust to different panel regression strategies. Overall, this study implies that parental divorce negatively affects children’s developmental time use, especially among boys, and leads lone mothers to experience increasing ‘time penalties’ associated with gender inequalities in society.     

Fertility Decline in Russia in the Early and Mid 1990s: The Role of Economic Uncertainty and Labour Market Crises

This paper analyses the fertility decline in Russia during theearly and mid 1990s from both a macro- and micro-perspective and presents astriking divergence between these two empirical viewpoints. While the formersuggests that the fertility decline after 1989 is associated with theeconomic hardship accompanying the transition to a market economy, themicro-evidence using the Russian Longitudinal Monitoring Survey is to thecontrary. There is no negative association between labour market uncertaintyor a labour market crisis and fertility, and frequently there is even apositive association. That is, women or couples who are themselves affectedby labour market crises often had a higher probability of having anotherchild in the period 1994–1996 than women/couples who were less affected bysuch crises. The lack of a negative association, and the presence of apositive association in many instances, is surprising from the standpoint ofeconomic fertility theory. It is also contrary to many explanatory theoriesabout the recent fertility decline in Central and Eastern European countriesthat are built on a more or less direct connection between the labour marketor an economic crisis and low fertility.     

My Wealth, (Y)Our Life Satisfaction? Sole and Joint Wealth Ownership and Life Satisfaction in Marriage

This study examines the money-subjective well-being nexus by studying the link between changes in jointly and solely (i.e. respondents’ own and their partner’s own) held gross wealth and changes in married individuals’ subjective well-being. Joint assets reflect norms of sharing responsibilities and resources. Solely held assets, in contrast, offer individual economic independence. Using wealth data from the German Socio-Economic Panel Study (SOEP; 2002, 2007, 2012, 2017), we estimate individual fixed effects regressions. Although coefficients for all three wealth measures are positive, our results highlight that only increases in jointly held wealth are associated with statistically significant increases in spouses’ life satisfaction in Germany. Despite expectations about a stronger relevance of joint wealth for men compared to women in line with men’s role as a financial provider for the family, we do not find substantial gender differences in the positive association between increases in joint wealth and life satisfaction. In light of the individualisation of marriages, our results highlight that the personal benefits associated with marital sharing of wealth seem to trump those of economic independence and financial autonomy.Supplementary InformationThe online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s10680-022-09630-7.     

Child Survival and Fertility of Refugees in Rwanda

In the 1960s and 1990s, internal strife in Rwanda has caused a mass flow of refugees into neighbouring countries. This article explores the cumulated fertility of Rwandan refugee women and the survival of their children. To this end, we use a national survey conducted between 1999 and 2001 and covering 6,420 former refugee and non-refugee households. The findings support old-age security theories of reproductive behaviour: refugee women had higher fertility but their children had lower survival chances. Newborn girls suffered more than boys, suggesting that the usual sex differential in child survival observed in most populations changes under extreme living conditions.     

Does Part-Time Mothering Help Get a Job? The Role of Shared Custody in Women’s Employment

Though child shared physical custody arrangements after divorce are much more frequent and parents who use it more diverse in many European countries, little is known about their economic consequences for parents. By relaxing family time constraints, does shared custody help divorced mothers return to or stay on work more easily? Since lone mothers are one of the least-employed groups, and they face high unemployment rates, the type of child custody arrangement adopted after divorce is of particular interest for their employability. This article analyses to what extent the type of child custody arrangement affects mothers’ labour market patterns after divorce.Using a large sample of divorcees from an exhaustive French administrative income tax database, and taking advantage of the huge territorial discrepancies observed in the proportion of shared custody, we correct for the possible endogeneity of shared custody. Results show that not repartnered mothers with shared custody arrangements are 24 percentage points more likely to work one year after divorce compared to those having sole custody, while no significant effect is found for repartnered mothers. Among lone mothers, we also highlight huge heterogeneous effects: larger positive effects are observed for previously inactive women, for those belonging to the lowest income quintiles before divorce, for those with a young child, and for those who have three or more children. Thus, shared physical custody arrangements may reduce work–family conflict by diminishing childcare expenses and enlarge the possibilities to find a suitable job because of more relaxed time constraints for lone mothers.     

Disentangling the Long-term Effects of Divorce Circumstances on Father–Child Closeness in Adulthood: A Mediation Analysis

Many studies have shown that the relationship between nonresidential fathers and their children in youth has a lasting influence on their relationship in adulthood. Comparatively less is known about the process through which divorce affects father–child relationships. We assess if and how the divorce circumstances of interparental conflict, the presence of new partners, and geographical distance between parents affect nonresidential father–child closeness in adulthood. Using a path model, we test whether father–adult child closeness is mediated by fathers’ involvement after divorce. The results of this study demonstrate that the level of interparental conflict and the presence of a fathers’ new partner after the divorce negatively affect the closeness between fathers and children in adulthood. Our mediation analysis demonstrates that both the effects of interparental conflict and new partnerships on closeness are partially mediated by father involvement and contact frequency during childhood. In other words, it is partly through the negative effect that interparental conflict and new partners have on fathers’ involvement that fathers and children become less close later in life. Our study highlights the importance of disentangling the effects of different factors associated with divorce when examining nonresidential father–child relationships.     

从富阳实例看浙江富裕农村育龄妇女生育意愿转变

本文根据１９９７年浙江富阳农村育龄妇女生育意愿的调查结果,分析了５０年代、６０年代、７０年代出生的三个育龄妇女群体在初婚年龄、生育数量、性别偏好三方面的差异,以观察现阶段浙江农村育龄妇女生育意愿转变的特征,并在此基础上,提出了工作对策