Computer integrated management—The next competitive breakthrough

This article addresses the key question of how organizational competitiveness can be achieved through leveraging the high impact potential of IT. Using the Wilmot 80/20 Rule of Management as his yardstick for measuring the performance of today's organizations, Dr Wilmot provides an insight into how the culture and decision making processes of the organization of 1992 will be transformed by the effective use of strategic, integrated information systems.     

Ordering,Pricing, and Lead‐Time Quotation Under Lead‐Time and Demand Uncertainty

In this article, we study the newsvendor problem with endogenous setting of price and quoted lead‐time. This problem can be observed in situations where a firm orders semi‐finished product prior to the selling season and customizes the product in response to customer orders during the selling season. The total demand during the selling season and the lead‐time required for customization are uncertain. The demand for the product depends not only on the selling price but also on the quoted lead‐time. To set the quoted lead‐time, the firm has to carefully balance the benefit of increasing demand as the quoted lead‐time is reduced against the cost of increased tardiness. Our model enables the firm to determine the optimal selling price, quoted lead‐time, and order quantity simultaneously, and provides a new set of insights to managers.     

Incentive Contracts for Managing a Project with Uncertain Completion Time

We examine two time‐related incentive project management contracts (C1 and C2 contracts) when the manager conducts a reverse auction. Under the C1 contract, the contractor with the lowest bid price wins; however, the manager imposes a linear and symmetric incentive/disincentive for early/late completion according to a pre‐specified due date. Under the C2 contract, the winning contractor has the lowest composite score that is based on the quoted price and the quoted due date; however, in addition to the linear and symmetric penalty/incentive, the contractor is subject to an additional penalty for late completion. While the C2 contract is more sophisticated than the C1 contract (in terms of the number of decisions that each party has to make), our analysis reveals that, unless the project is truly urgent, the more complicated C2 contract adds no value to the manager— the simple C1 contract will suffice.     

A Bayesian Inventory Model Using Real‐Time Condition Monitoring Information

Lack of coordination between machinery fault diagnosis and inventory management for spare parts can lead to increased inventory costs and disruptions in production activity. We develop a framework for incorporating real‐time condition monitoring information into inventory decisions for spare parts. We consider a manufacturer who periodically replenishes inventory for a machine part that is subject to deterioration. The deterioration is captured via condition monitoring and modeled using a Wiener process. The resulting degradation model is used to derive the life distribution of a functioning part and to estimate the demand distribution for spare parts. This estimation is periodically updated, in a Bayesian manner, as additional information on part deterioration is obtained. We develop an inventory model that incorporates this updated demand distribution and demonstrate that a dynamic base‐stock policy, in which the optimal base‐stock level is a function of some subset of the observed condition monitoring information, is optimal. We propose a myopic critical fractile policy that captures the essence of the optimal policy, but is easier to compute. Computational experiments indicate that this heuristic performs quite well relative to the optimal policy. Adaptive inventory policies such as these can help manufacturers to increase machine availability and reduce inventory costs.     

ISO 31000:2009—Setting a New Standard for Risk Management

Last year saw the publication of IS0 31000:2009, a new globally accepted standard for risk management together with a new, associated vocabulary in ISO Guide 73:2009. These were developed through a consensus‐driven process over four years, through seven drafts, and involving the input of hundreds of risk management professionals around the world. The new standard supports a new, simple way of thinking about risk and risk management and is intended to begin the process of resolving the many inconsistencies and ambiguities that exist between many different approaches and definitions. While most decisionmakers seem to welcome the new standard and it has so far received very good reviews, it does create challenges for those who use language and approaches that are unique to their area of work but different from the new standard and guide. The need for compromise and change is the inevitable consequence of standardization     

易变质产品在带运输时间的二级供应链中的订购策略研究

研究了带运输时间的易变质产品的二级供应链库存模型。在有限计划期内,为补充下游分销商发出的订单,上游制造商以一定的生产速率进行生产。由于产品运输给分销商时需要花费时间与成本,在开始一段时间内分销商的订单得不到及时补充,只有当制造商的库存量达到最大时,才将产品运输给分销商。目标就是确定最优订购策略使得整个系统的总成本最小。通过分析成本函数的特点,证明了2种特殊情形下最优解的存在及唯一性。最后通过算例验证了最优策略的有效性。     

The Bullwhip Effect—Impact of Stochastic Lead Time,Information Quality,and Information Sharing: A Simulation Study

We use a simulation model called ‘SISCO’ to examine the effects in supply chains of stochastic lead times and of information sharing and quality of that information in a periodic order‐up‐to level inventory system. We test the accuracy of the simulation by verifying the results in Chen et al. (2000a) and Dejonckheere et al. (2004). We find that lead‐time variability exacerbates variance amplification in a supply chain, and that information sharing and information quality are highly significant. For example, using the assumptions in Chen et al. (2000a) and Dejonckheere et al. (2004), we find in a numerical experiment of a customer‐retailer‐wholesaler‐distributor‐factory supply chain that variance amplification is attenuated by nearly 50 percent at the factory due to information sharing. Other assumptions we make are based on interviews or conversations with managers at large supply chains.     

Reputation in Continuous‐Time Games

We study reputation dynamics in continuous‐time games in which a large player (e.g., government) faces a population of small players (e.g., households) and the large player's actions are imperfectly observable. The major part of our analysis examines the case in which public signals about the large player's actions are distorted by a Brownian motion and the large player is either a normal type, who plays strategically, or a behavioral type, who is committed to playing a stationary strategy. We obtain a clean characterization of sequential equilibria using ordinary differential equations and identify general conditions for the sequential equilibrium to be unique and Markovian in the small players' posterior belief. We find that a rich equilibrium dynamics arises when the small players assign positive prior probability to the behavioral type. By contrast, when it is common knowledge that the large player is the normal type, every public equilibrium of the continuous‐time game is payoff‐equivalent to one in which a static Nash equilibrium is played after every history. Finally, we examine variations of the model with Poisson signals and multiple behavioral types.     

Optimal Expediting Policies for a Serial Inventory System with Stochastic Lead Time

In recent supply chains, often operating multiple delivery modes such as standard freight shipping and air is an effective way of addressing both delivery lead time uncertainties and service rates. We propose a model on how to optimally operate multiple delivery modes. We consider a serial supply chain and an expediting option from intermediate installations to the downstream of the chain. The goods move stochastically among the installations and the system faces a stochastic demand. We identify systems that yield simple optimal policies, in which both regular ordering and expediting follow a variant of the base stock policy. Expediting allows the system to be leaner due to the reduced regular order amount. In addition, we provide managerial insights linking expediting, base stock levels, and expediting costs based on analytical and numerical results.     

Funds versus stocks: a note on constraint classification

Even if the industrial production process forms a common frame of reference, the integration of the economist's concepts of production with those of the industrial production engineer may well present a vexed problem. Yet a basic requirement to engineers and economists alike ought to be a proper understanding of the interplay between engineering and economics in the area of industrial production. One solution to this problem may be to consider the production process in the unifying sense of a constraint satisfaction problem. This approach, which is not without merit in the history of science, has its foundation in an interdisciplinary constraint classification, developed originally in analytical mechanics. To illustrate this approach, we demonstrate in this note how the two economic notions of a fund of services and a stock of goods, are recast into two distinct constraint formulations of fundamental importance in the mathematical modelling of industrial production processes.     

Estimation of Continuous‐Time Markov Processes Sampled at Random Time Intervals

We introduce a family of generalized‐method‐of‐moments estimators of the parameters of a continuous‐time Markov process observed at random time intervals. The results include strong consistency, asymptotic normality, and a characterization of standard errors. Sampling is at an arrival intensity that is allowed to depend on the underlying Markov process and on the parameter vector to be estimated. We focus on financial applications, including tick‐based sampling, allowing for jump diffusions, regime‐switching diffusions, and reflected diffusions.     

Mixed Hitting‐Time Models

We study mixed hitting‐time models that specify durations as the first time a Lévy process—a continuous‐time process with stationary and independent increments—crosses a heterogeneous threshold. Such models are of substantial interest because they can be deduced from optimal‐stopping models with heterogeneous agents that do not naturally produce a mixed proportional hazards structure. We show how strategies for analyzing the identifiability of the mixed proportional hazards model can be adapted to prove identifiability of a hitting‐time model with observed covariates and unobserved heterogeneity. We discuss inference from censored data and give examples of structural applications. We conclude by discussing the relative merits of both models as complementary frameworks for econometric duration analysis.     

General Probability‐Time Tradeoff and Intertemporal Risk‐Value Model

This article proposes an intertemporal risk‐value (IRV) model that integrates probability‐time tradeoff, time‐value tradeoff, and risk‐value tradeoff into one unified framework. We obtain a general probability‐time tradeoff, which yields a formal representation form to reflect the psychological distance of a decisionmaker in evaluating a temporal lottery. This intuition of probability‐time tradeoff is supported by robust empirical findings as well as by psychological theory. Through an explicit formalization of probability‐time tradeoff, an IRV model taking into account three fundamental dimensions, namely, value, probability, and time, is established. The object of evaluation in our framework is a complex lottery. We also give some insights into the structure of the IRV model using a wildcatter problem.     

Innovation through initiatives—a framework for building new capabilities in public sector research organizations

The accelerating pace of change in science and technology has resulted in new attention to the process of identifying and developing ideas that ultimately lead to new scientific capabilities and business opportunities for an organization. The need to refresh research programs and capabilities is as important in federally funded research institutions as it is for industry. This paper explores the critical success factors for new initiatives at a federal laboratory, and building on lessons learned through this study and in private industry, identifies a more systematic process that could potentially improve the effectiveness of these initiatives in achieving results.     

Teacher stress during an autumn term in Finland: Four types of stress processes

This Finnish study examines teachers' stress in order to clarify how stress manifests itself and to describe any observed differences in the teachers' background, personality and coping variables. The research design was longitudinal. One hundred and fifty-three teachers made repeated assessments (six in all) of the indicators of stress (subjective mood ratings) by means of questionnaires during the autumn term of 1983. The background variables were based on questionnaire responses gathered in the autumn of 1983. Four different teacher groups emerged according to the type of stress reported: (1) teachers who were exhausted throughout the term; (2) those who recovered from stress on the first weekends of the term but not later on; (3) those not at all stressed, and (4) teachers feeling tired and anxious at the beginning and at the end of the term. The four teacher groups differed with regard to their personality characteristics and coping strategies.     

Modeling Finite‐Time Failure Probabilities in Risk Analysis Applications

In this article, we introduce a framework for analyzing the risk of systems failure based on estimating the failure probability. The latter is defined as the probability that a certain risk process, characterizing the operations of a system, reaches a possibly time‐dependent critical risk level within a finite‐time interval. Under general assumptions, we define two dually connected models for the risk process and derive explicit expressions for the failure probability and also the joint probability of the time of the occurrence of failure and the excess of the risk process over the risk level. We illustrate how these probabilistic models and results can be successfully applied in several important areas of risk analysis, among which are systems reliability, inventory management, flood control via dam management, infectious disease spread, and financial insolvency. Numerical illustrations are also presented.     

Operations in Financial Services—An Overview

We provide an overview of the state of the art in research on operations in financial services. We start by highlighting a number of specific operational features that differentiate financial services from other service industries, and discuss how these features affect the modeling of financial services. We then consider in more detail the various different research areas in financial services, namely systems design, performance analysis and productivity, forecasting, inventory and cash management, waiting line analysis for capacity planning, personnel scheduling, operational risk management, and pricing and revenue management. In the last section, we describe the most promising research directions for the near future.     

Games and Mechanism Design in Machine Scheduling—An Introduction

We survey different models, techniques, and some recent results to tackle machine scheduling problems within a distributed setting. In traditional optimization, a central authority is asked to solve a (computationally hard) optimization problem. In contrast, in distributed settings there are several agents, possibly equipped with private information that is not publicly known, and these agents must interact to derive a solution to the problem. Usually the agents have their individual preferences, which induces them to behave strategically to manipulate the resulting solution. Nevertheless, one is often interested in the global performance of such systems. The analysis of such distributed settings requires techniques from classical optimization, game theory, and economic theory. The paper therefore briefly introduces the most important of the underlying concepts and gives a selection of typical research questions and recent results, focusing on applications to machine scheduling problems. This includes the study of the so‐called price of anarchy for settings where the agents do not possess private information, as well as the design and analysis of (truthful) mechanisms in settings where the agents do possess private information.