Kazakhstan's Economic Challenges: How To Manage the Oil Boom?

Kazakhstan's economic performance over the past six years has been impressive. Yet, a number of challenges remain. This paper discusses the management of oil revenues, the oil infrastructure, and the development of the oil and nonoil sectors of the economy.     

Infrastructure Investment and Incentives with Supranational Funding

Public infrastructure investment is usually co-financed by supranational organizations. The selection of projects is supposed to be decided using the information provided by conventional cost-benefit analysis. Nevertheless, we show that the type of institutional design regarding the financing mechanism affects the incentives of national governments to reduce costs and increase revenues, affecting project selection, the infrastructure capacity, the choice of technology, and the type of contract used for the construction and operation of projects. With a total cost-plus financing mechanism there is no incentive in being efficient and the price charged for the use of the new infrastructure is zero, the market quantity excessive, and the level of supranational financing disproportionate. In contrast, with a sunk cost-plus financing mechanism social optimal pricing is always implemented, though there is no incentive in being efficient. Finally, with a fixed-price financing mechanism the maximal efficiency may be achieved, and the socially optimal pricing is always implemented.     

Do natural resource revenues lower government reliance on seigniorage? The role of exchange rate policy

The study investigates how the degree of exchange rate management conditions the relationship between seigniorage and governments’ natural resource revenues using a sample of 140 countries over the period from 1971 to 2012. It also disaggregates natural resource revenues to investigate if this relationship holds across the various types of natural resources. The main approach is to estimate dynamic panel data interaction models. The study finds that under exchange rate regimes characterized as fixed or of limited flexibility an increase in natural resource rents is associated with an increase in seigniorage. Under crawling currency bands and managed floating, an increase in natural resource rents has little association with seigniorage. Under exchange rate regimes permitting greater exchange rate flexibility, greater natural resource rents allow less reliance on seigniorage. Additionally, the direct relationship between natural resource rents and seigniorage is driven mostly by oil and natural gas.     

Frequency of price increases and perceived inflation. An experimental investigation

The effect of frequency of subjective experience of price increases on perceived inflation, i.e. the subjective experience of general price development, is investigated. The paper presents a two-phased psychological model of perceived inflation: first, information about product price increases is gathered in daily purchase. Second, these are integrated into one perceived inflation judgment. In the integration phase, the complexity of the task should trigger heuristic processing: higher frequency of price increases should enhance their availability and thus perceived inflation. Participants simulated purchases in two scenarios. Frequency of products with increased prices was varied while overall expenditure increases as well as relative price increase of individual products were balanced. Experiment 1 presented a high frequency condition with a majority of increased prices relative to previously learned reference prices and a low frequency condition with a majority of stable prices. Experiment 2 balanced cognitive effort for product price change estimation over conditions by replacing absolutely stable prices with slightly increased prices. As predicted, perceived inflation was higher with high frequencies of increased prices, while price increases of individual products were judged correctly. Experiment 3 ruled out the alternative hypothesis that presentation duration, which in the previous experiments correlated with presentation frequency, might have been the determining factor.     

The Impact of Oil Price Hike on the Belarusian Economy

This paper attempts to empirically examine the impact of oil price hike on the macro-economic activities in the Republic of Belarus. In order to capture both short-run and long-run dynamic effects, we use a co-integrated vector auto-regression (VAR) model with the data from the first quarter of 1996 to the second quarter of 2008. The analysis leads to the finding that a 1% increase in oil prices contributes to real GDP growth by 0.3% in the long run, whereas it has almost no effect in the short run (12 quarters). Additionally, it was found that exports and inflation rate are, respectively, positively and negatively related to the oil shock in the preceding period. In particular, the latter is significant.     

Caspian Oil in a Global Context

This paper provides a brief overview of the political economy of Caspian oil. It begins by situating the Caspian region's oil sectors in the larger global market, before proceeding to examine the ways in which the Azerbaijani, Turkmen, and Kazakh oil sectors have been organised and governed since 1991. The paper then considers the likely consequences of recent policy shifts in Kazakhstan, the region's most important oil producer. A further section considers the questions of transport infrastructure and export routes, which remain particularly complex problems for Central Asia's landlocked producers. This is followed by a brief conclusion. The paper's central argument is that it is by no means certain that the Caspian region's hydrocarbon potential will be developed in a timely, economically efficient way. While the impact of geology, geography, and international price movements can hardly be ignored, policy-makers can do much to raise or lower the long-term elasticity of the supply by the Commonwealth of Independent States. Unfortunately, policy in the region seems, on present trends, likely to lower it.     

RESERVE PRICE VERSUS ENTRY FEE IN STANDARD AUCTIONS

Analysis of standard auction rules when bidders are risk averse is usually carried out under the assumption that the seller is able to set an optimal reserve. The role of entry fees has been generally overlooked in that analysis. We consider bidders with constant absolute risk aversion and show that reserve price is an essential tool in the second price auction while entry fee is essential in the first price auction. Furthermore, setting a reserve price and entry fee combination optimally may change some of the rankings of the standard auctions that hold under optimal reserves. (JEL D44)     

Olive Oil Consumption in Greece: A Microeconometric Analysis

In this paper, the factors affecting at-home demand for three types of oils and fats in Greece, with emphasis on olive oil, are investigated using the linear approximation of the Almost Ideal Demand System and family budget survey data. To overcome the econometric problem created with the existence of zero expenditure, a generalization of the two-stage Heckman procedure is employed. In order to investigate the role of self-consumption, two different samples were used. The first includes all households; the second excludes those that acquire olive oil only from own production. According to the results, there are important differences in the first stage of the decision process between the two samples. Unlike the first stage, the second stage of the decision process found no important differences between the results for the two samples.     

Fracking Fortunes: Economic Well‐being and Oil and Gas Development along the Urban‐Rural Continuum

Oil and gas extraction, especially via unconventional means like hydraulic fracturing, is hailed as an economic boon by many commentators and political leaders. However, empirical evidence is limited. In this article, we consider the socioeconomic effects (particularly, related to poverty, employment, income, and wages) of unconventional oil and gas extraction using a national data set of U.S. counties. We use a novel between‐ and within‐county random effects modeling strategy to capture both resource curse and boomtown dynamics. Further, we allow the effect of oil and gas development to be conditioned by county rurality. Broadly, our findings suggest that oil and gas development has very complex effects at the county level. Within‐county growth in oil and gas production slightly improves most economic outcomes, but counties that specialize in oil and gas development tend to perform worse than other counties. We find that, in general, the effect of within‐county oil and gas production is not significantly moderated by county rurality.     

The Shale Boom and Family Structure: Oil and Gas Employment Growth Relationship to Marriage,Divorce, and Cohabitation

Shale oil and gas extraction technology has caused a large shift in the United States' energy landscape over the last decade. This had a wide range of impacts on rural communities mostly in which oil and gas extraction occurs. While many studies have focused on the economic and environmental impact of shale development, researchers have only begun to study the social changes brought on by the shale resource extraction. We examine the influence of shale oil and gas employment as a share of overall county employment on county marriage, divorce, and cohabitation rates. We find evidence that oil and gas employment growth is associated with decreased marriage rates and increased divorce rates from 2009 to 2014. We test several channels through which oil and gas development may influence marriage behaviors and find that changes in female labor force participation, county sex ratios, and median household incomes are associated with oil and gas development. We also test for differences across the rural/urban continuum and find that our results are largely driven by nonmetro counties.     

埃及的油气资源与中埃贸易

从近年的钻探情况看，埃及大地下蕴藏有较为丰富或很丰富的石油和天然气．10多年来，在中埃贸易中，埃方一直处于逆差，主要原因是埃方无法提供更多中方所需的产品，因此，埃及的石油和天然气将会在平衡中埃贸易中发挥重要作用。     

中国石油辽宁销售公司成品油合理库存分析

辽宁地区成品油市场保持合理库存,就是要避免出现脱销断档现象,避免库存积压,有效利用价格变动增加库存潜盈降低库存潜亏。不同区域应该保持不同的合理库存量,不同季节库存的合理值也会发生变化,不同品种在不同季节应该保持不同的合理库存量。进货的不确定性导致了合理库存在时间和量上很难把握,建议上级公司更多地赋予地区公司对计划控制的主动权。     

The State of Play in Poland's Unconventional Shale and Oil Development

Following initial geological assessments, Poland was identified as having one of the largest reserves of unconventional natural gas in the European Union. The Poles, seeking to diversify their energy sources, met the news with tremendous fanfare. However, shale gas development often requires voluminous speculative activity before the gas can be successfully extracted – an activity which has been rare in Poland, where a lack of critical infrastructure coupled with bureaucratic red tape in the permission process has led to slow growth in exploration activities. This article examines the current situation in Poland's unconventional gas and oil development.     

SAFETY FIRST, BANKRUPTCY, AND THE PRICING AND INVESTMENT DECISIONS OF THE FIRM

The paper analyzes the impact of imposing a constraint on the probability of bankruptcy for the pricing and investment choices of firms. Two models are presented in which a firm faces stochastic demand; in one costs are known with certainty, and in the other costs of production are probabilistic. In both cases the constraint induces a reduction in optimal price if demand is elastic. For less elastic demand, price increases may be indicated. With constant costs, the constraint lowers optimal investment. The results are applicable to the analysis of rating agencies' behavior, or to the design of bond covenants, especially for public utilities.     

美伊战争与2003年油价走势

2003年的世界油气价格在震荡中走高，并维持在高位，其主要原因有：美伊战争、委内瑞拉石油工人罢工、欧美石油库存偏低以及供应偏紧，其中受美伊战争影响最大。     

Martha Stewart Living Omnimedia Inc.: the fall of an American icon

Domestic advice, entertainment, and home products icon Martha Stewart has been convicted of lying to government investigators following the sale of nearly 4000 shares of ImClone Systems Inc. Following accusations of insider trading, stock price manipulation, and perjury during a government investigation, the share price in her company tumbled, her award-winning television show was cancelled, advertising revenues in her magazine have plunged, and corporate officers have resigned. Can Martha Stewart Living Omnimedia Inc. survive the downfall of its namesake? Is it safe or rational to build a publicly traded brand around the name of a living person?     

Risky Business: A Few Provocations on the Regulation of Electronic Gaming Machines

Electronic gambling machines (EGMs) proliferate in Australian club and hotel venues, generating revenues of billions of dollars annually and accounting for the majority of gambling expenditure. These revenues arguably rely on unsafe consumption practices, generating considerable harm. Clear evidence is available describing unsafe levels of EGM consumption by regular EGM consumers in hotels and clubs, and indicating modifications to EGM technology and systems to minimize harm. However, a comfortable orthodoxy, the discourse of ‘business as usual’, perpetuates current arrangements, sustaining in particular a model of the ‘problem’ gambler as an individualized flawed consumer. The article argues that the marketing and distribution of EGMs is neither accidental nor something for which the individual is responsible, and neither is the safeguarding of oneself from the harm produced by goods licensed by government. Pursuit of a goal of safe consumption for all EGM gamblers requires disruption of the discourse of business as usual.     

The impact of school and college expenditures on the wages of southern and non-southern workers

Based on previous evidence of diminishing earnings returns to greater educational expenditures, the hypothesis that southern schools and colleges have greater returns than non-southern schools and colleges is tested but is not accepted. Per pupil expenditures for both school and college, however, significantly raise earnings for southern male full-time workers. The elasticity of expenditure with respect to the wage for high school graduates is 0.1212 for southerners and 0.0360 for non-southerners, and the elasticity for college expenditure is 0.0468 for southerners and 0.0260 for non-southerners. The author is grateful to Philip R. P. Coelho, W. Lee Hansen, Wayne H. Joerding, Victor J. Tremblay, and an anonymous referee for helpful suggestions and to the Mississippi Research and Development Center for support of this research.     

对传统燃气企业资本市场上市前关键问题的思考

传统燃气企业准备在资本市场上市,须在上市前梳理并妥善解决一些特有的行业问题或历史遗留问题,为上市扫除障碍并规避长期风险.该文着重对特许经营权、燃气管网资产确权和燃气价格体系以及价格形成机制的三大关键问题进行分析并提出建议.     

The Russian Economy and the Oil Price: A Co-integrated VAR Approach

Using a co-integrated VAR model, this paper analyzes the dynamic effects of oil price and interest rate shocks on the Russian economy for the period 1995:Q1-2008:Q2. The co-integration analysis leads to the finding that a 1% increase in oil prices contributes to real GDP growth by 0.8%, suggesting an increase four times that reported by Rautava (2002), in the long run. Furthermore, the impulse response analysis suggests that the impacts of the shock on inflation and real GDP are positive over the next eight quarters (short run), whereas the tightening of monetary policy through interest rate channel is immediately associated with a decline in inflation as predicted by theory, but with an increase in real GDP over the preceding quarters.