Changing Demographic Characteristics and the Family Status of Chinese Women

The model developed in this paper extends Bongaarts's nuclear family model into a general one that accounts for both nuclear and three-generation families, and which is expected to be more widely applicable. In the paper a simulation and comparison of two cohorts of women who are assumed to live out their lives under demographic conditions of China in 1950–70 and 1981 is presented. The status distribution and expected years spent in different parities, marital statuses, being the child of surviving parent(s), being a parent of living children, and having responsibility for both elderly parent(s) and young children etc. are given. The consequences of the dramatic demographic changes are clearly demonstrated.     

The Changing Family and Aging Populations

This is an expanded version of comments on the future of the demography of aging at an invited session of the 2008 annual meeting of the Population Association of America. In an introduction, John Haaga offers reasons for a revival of interest in population aging, including greater realization of plasticity in aging trajectories at both individual and societal levels. Linda Martin proposes that population scientists working in aging emulate those studying fertility and family planning in previous decades, learning from interventions (in this case, aimed at increasing retirement savings and reducing disability at older ages). Changes in family structure will increasingly affect new cohorts of the elderly, and Linda Waite speculates on the ways in which changes in the economy, medicine, and the legal environment could affect the social context for aging. Research on mortality at older ages is “alive and well” asserts James Vaupel, who sets out six large questions on mortality trends and differentials over time and across species. Lastly, Wolfgang Lutz expands the scope of projections, showing the considerable uncertainty about the timing and pace of population aging in the developing world and the effects on future elderly of the increases in educational attainment in much of the world during the second half of the twentieth century.     

Defying Gender Norms in Rural Bangladesh: A Social Demographic Analysis

This paper proposes core innovations in the strategy of research on demographic behaviour. One aim is a shift of attention away from events and towards a focus on dynamic processes and their interplay: away from a preoccupation with marriage and divorce, births, deaths, migrations, and household structure towards a broader perspective that takes account of partnership and intimacy, parenthood, potential and well-being, position in society and space, and personal ties. Another aim is a much closer engagement with genetics, neuroscience, psychology, and behavioural economics. A third aim is a strategy that pays more attention to pathways within the individual, to the processes entailed when the individual interacts with various contexts, and to progressions that involve the interplay of the pathways and processes through the life course. These shifts of emphasis, which have already begun to occur, require a systematic reassessment of priorities for research on demographic behaviour.     

Goode's World Revolution and Family Patterns: A Reconsideration at Fifty Years

Fifty years ago, William J. Goode published World Revolution and Family Patterns, a highly influential study of international family change. Goode's main thesis, that, owing to industrialization, family patterns around the world would come to resemble the mid‐twentieth‐century Western conjugal family, was incorrect. For one thing, that model collapsed in the West soon afterward. But Goode's secondary hypotheses have proven to be correct in at least some regions of the world: that parents' control over their children's family lives would decline; and that the spread of the ideology of the conjugal family would occur even in countries where extensive industrialization had not taken place. Moreover, it is worth understanding why Goode was sometimes incorrect and what forces (such as globalization) he did not foresee. It is also worth examining more recent writings on world family change by leading scholars. This article provides a reconsideration of the book's impact a half‐century after it appeared.     

自愿不育的人口社会学视角

文章通过对目前人口形势和不育群体现状的分析 ,从人口学和社会学的角度对不育文化作了论述 ,最后分析了几个值得深入探讨的社会问题     

新"空巢"家庭--一个值得关注的社会人口现象

随着我国城市第一代独生子女逐渐离家求学、就业和结婚 ,一批新“空巢”家庭已经出现。此类“空巢”家庭的成员是那些长大成人了的独生子女的父母 ,他们中的许多人还不到 5 0岁 ,他们可能将在“空巢”家庭中生活 2 0～ 3 0年。本文旨在分析新“空巢”家庭的社会人口学特征和新“空巢“家庭出现可能带来的社会问题以及相应的对策建议     

计划生育政策的人口效应

文章试图估计计划生育政策使我国少生了多少人。利用1980~2008年世界140多个国家的数据来模拟在没有计划生育政策影响下经济社会变量与人口变量的相关关系,并据此对中国无计划生育条件下的总和生育率进行测算。将测算出来的无计划生育条件下的总和生育率和中国实际总和生育率分别代入模型进行人口模拟,比较无计划生育条件下和现实条件下人口增长的不同过程和结果。研究表明:无计划生育条件下,我国2008年生育率水平的预测值大概在2.5左右。1972~2008年间,排除经济社会发展的影响,单纯由于计划生育的作用,中国少生了4.58亿人。     

传统人口行为的经济分析:理论及实证

文章建立了一个人口行为经济分析模型,在以往人口经济理论强调人口的生产-消费功能的基础上,加入人口的产权保护变量,重新构造家庭的人口决策目标函数。模型的均衡结果表明,在特定社会环境下保护产权的考虑使传统家庭的最佳人口数量超过仅仅考虑生产功能的最优劳动投入水平,从而出现“有控制”的“人口压力”。应用模型的推论,分析明清两代的家庭规模数据与作为产权保护制度安排的宗族制度南北差异的关系,结果证实了模型的经验一致性。     

Global Demographic Convergence? A Reconsideration of Changing Intercountry Inequality in Fertility

This research challenges the notion that the second half of the twentieth century was a period of global demographic convergence. To be sure, fertility rates fell substantially during the period, but with considerable un‐evenness. The declines in total fertility across population‐weighted countries were sufficiently disproportionate that intercountry fertility inequality, estimated using standard measures of inequality, did not begin to decline until at least 1995. Regression analysis also shows that only very recently did lagging countries begin to catch up with countries that began the transition to low fertility earlier. Contrary to findings on changing intercountry health inequality, sub‐Saharan Africa has had a greater impact on changes in fertility inequality than China. The trend in fertility inequality, where convergence is a relatively new phenomenon, stands in contrast to trends in inequality in other domains, such as income, education, and health.     

农村家庭结构变动及类型识别问题——以冀东村庄为分析基础

土改前私有土地制度下,核心家庭是最大的家庭类型,但它并非居于主导地位;直系家庭虽居第二位,其所容纳的人口却处首位;复合家庭位居第三,约有1/4的村民生活在这类家庭中。集体经济制度对家庭结构的影响主要表现为,父家长失去了对土地等基本生产资料的控制权,进而缺少了对已婚儿子分家要求的抑制能力。复合家庭渐趋式微乃至消失;家庭核心化在20世纪60年代末、70年代初即已实现。调查村庄劳动力近距离的非农择业活动并未使其中多数人离开家庭,农民就业方式的非农转换并未对家庭结构产生大的影响。目前65岁以上多子父母被轮养具有一定普遍性。轮养父母周期性地依附于某个子女生活,与该子女组成间歇式直系家庭,在子女之间则形成轮转式直系家庭。将这一类型单列使轮养直系家庭的特殊性得以体现。     

Responsive Survey Design,Demographic Data Collection,and Models of Demographic Behavior

To address declining response rates and rising data-collection costs, survey methodologists have devised new techniques for using process data (“paradata”) to address nonresponse by altering the survey design dynamically during data collection. We investigate the substantive consequences of responsive survey design—tools that use paradata to improve the representative qualities of surveys and control costs. By improving representation of reluctant respondents, responsive design can change our understanding of the topic being studied. Using the National Survey of Family Growth Cycle 6, we illustrate how responsive survey design can shape both demographic estimates and models of demographic behaviors based on survey data. By juxtaposing measures from regular and responsive data collection phases, we document how special efforts to interview reluctant respondents may affect demographic estimates. Results demonstrate the potential of responsive survey design to change the quality of demographic research based on survey data.     

Toward a Multidimensional Understanding of Heterosexism: The Changing Nature of Prejudice

ABSTRACT

Extending the theoretical understanding of modern prejudice into the realm of heterosexism, it is argued that shifts in the manifestation of prejudice against lesbians and gay men have occurred resulting in an increasingly multidimensional modern heterosexism. Four subdomains of modern heterosexism are identified that are conceptually and empirical distinct from the more traditional hostile heterosexism: aversive heterosexism, amnestic heterosexism, paternalistic heterosexism, and positive stereotypic heterosexism. The Multidimensional Heterosexism Inventory is offered as an instrument to capture the four theorized subdomains of modern heterosexism, and an examination of reliability and validity of the scale is presented.     

Economic Development,Gender Inequality,and Demographic Outcomes: Evidence from India

This article examines the determinants of fertility, child mortality, and female disadvantage in child survival in India, using a district‐level panel data set linking 1981 and 1991 censuses. The results question the dominant view that variables directly related to women's agency (specifically, the female literacy rate and the female labor force participation rate) have played the crucial roles here. Instead, variables reflecting the general level of development and modernization are shown to have had the greatest effect in reducing fertility and child mortality during the period of the study. Both economic development and women's agency are seen to have had significant effects in reducing the female disadvantage in child survival. The results suggest, however, that with continued economic development, the two women's agency variables lose their significance in influencing this disadvantage. The policy implications of these findings are considered.     

家庭中的性别平等问题与社会对策

我国坚持男女平等和计划生育基本国策,促进了家庭领域的性别平等。但是,当今家庭仍然存在一些性别不平等现象．一定程度上制约了女孩的成长和妇女的发展。要实现家庭中的性别平等与两性和谐发展必须发挥政府和社会组织的作用,进一步倡导社会性别平等意识、建设先进性别文化、推进社会政策的性别主流化,关心女孩成长、提高妇女社会经济地位。     

人口红利的作用:一个研究综述

本文梳理了人口红利作用领域的已有文献,讨论了人口红利对经济、人口迁移及收入不平等的作用.目前中国对人口红利的研究主要集中于人口结构变迁对经济的作用.随着二孩政策的全面实施,有更多现实问题需要我们研究和解决,这不仅包括人口红利对人口迁移及收入不平等的作用,还包括经济对家庭生育决策的反作用和第二次人口红利的实现等.     

Demographic Consequences of Gender Discrimination in China: Simulation Analysis of Policy Options

The large number of missing females in China, a consequence of gender discrimination, is having and will continue to have a profound effect on the country’s population development. In this paper, we analyze the causes of this gender discrimination in terms of institutions, culture and, economy, and suggest public policies that might help eliminate gender discrimination. Using a population simulation model, we study the effect of public policies on the sex ratio at birth and excess female child mortality, and the effect of gender discrimination on China’s population development. We find that gender discrimination will decrease China’s population size, number of births, and working age population, accelerate population aging and exacerbate the male marriage squeeze. These results provide theoretical support for suggesting that the government enact and implement public policies aimed at eliminating gender discrimination.     

Race Differences in Sexual Behavior and Their Demographic Implications

Differences between blacks and whites in sexual behavior posited in Rushton's theory of r-K race differences were examined in the United States in an analysis of the annual surveys of the National Opinion Research Center for 1990–1996. This data set was analysed for black-white differences in numbers of sexual partners during the last 5 years and for frequency of sexual intercourse. The general pattern of the results was for blacks to report more sexual partners than whites and for black males to report greater frequency of sexual intercourse, consistent with Rushton's theory. This result has implications for the control of the AIDS epidemic and for the demographic transition among blacks.     

The Council of Economic Advisers on the Changing American Family

The 2000 Annual Report of the US Council of Economic Advisers (a document exceeding 300 pages, formally an Annex to the Economic Report of the President Transmitted to the Congress February 2000, Washington, DC: US Government Printing Office) devotes considerable space to a discussion of the demographic and economic changes affecting families in the United States. Excerpts reproduced below from the first part of Chapter 5, titled “The Changing American Family,” examine the relevant trends in a broad historical perspective, drawing on data in some cases spanning the entire twentieth century. The second part of this chapter discusses the “money crunch”: financial constraints “that still burden many families despite the remarkable growth in the American standard of living,” and the “time crunch”: shortage of time devoted to family needs “that results from the increased participation of parents, especially mothers, in the paid labor market.” Policies designed to address these problems are also discussed in the second part of the chapter.