The Role of Hazardousness and Regulatory Practice in the Accidental Release of Chemicals at U.S. Industrial Facilities

This article presents the results of an analysis of the accident history data reported under section 112(r) of the Clean Air Act Amendments. These data provide a fairly complete record of the consequences of reportable accidental releases occurring during the time frame 1995-1999 in the U.S. chemical industry and covering 77 toxic and 63 flammable substances subject to the provisions of section 112(r). As such, these results are of fundamental interest to the affected communities, regulators, and insurers, as well as to owners and managers in the chemical industry. The results show the statistical associations between accident frequency and severity and a number of characteristics of reporting facilities, including their size, the hazardousness of the processes and chemicals inventoried, and the regulatory programs (in addition to section 112(r)) to which these facilities are subject. The results are interpreted in light of economic drivers of protective activity and regulatory priorities for monitoring and enforcement.     

Analysis of Inland Crude Oil Spill Threats,Vulnerabilities, and Emergency Response in the Midwest United States

Although coastal oil spills tend to be highly publicized, crude oil spills in the United States affect inland areas relatively often. Spills to inland areas often affect sensitive environments and can have greater impacts to health and welfare than spills to coastal areas. For these reasons, the authors investigated inland crude oil spill threats, vulnerabilities, and emergency response in the midwestern U.S. states of Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, Minnesota, Ohio, and Wisconsin. These states work with the Region 5 Offices of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. Region 5's geospatial data in the Inland Sensitivity Atlas were turned into metrics indicating inland crude oil spill threats and vulnerabilities among the Region's sub‐watersheds. These threats and vulnerabilities were weighted using data from the National Response Center and the Department of Energy's Environmental Restoration Priority System. The locations of the Region's emergency responders were geocoded in GIS. The GIS calculated the emergency response times to the Region's sub‐watersheds. The resulting scatter plots are connected to the sub‐watersheds in the map so stakeholders can (1) see the outlying sub‐watersheds of concern and (2) better understand how reducing threats and better response time can reduce the risk of inland crude oil spills.     

Lognormal Distributions for Body Weight as a Function of Age for Males and Females in the United States, 1976–1980

Based on results reported from the NHANES II Survey (the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey II) for people living in the United States during 1976–1980, we use exploratory data analysis, probability plots, and the method of maximum likelihood to fit lognormal distributions to percentiles of body weight for males and females as a function of age from 6 months through 74 years. The results are immediately useful in probabilistic (and deterministic) risk assessments.     

Advancing Risk‐Informed Decision Making in Managing Defense Nuclear Waste in the United States: Opportunities and Challenges for Risk Analysis

An omnibus spending bill in 2014 directed the Department of Energy to analyze how effectively Department of Energy (DOE) identifies, programs, and executes its plans to address public health and safety risks that remain as part of DOE's remaining environmental cleanup liabilities. A committee identified two dozen issues and associated recommendations for the DOE, other federal agencies, and the U.S. Congress to consider, as well as other stakeholders such as states and tribal nations. In regard to risk assessment, the committee described a risk review process that uses available data, expert experience, identifies major data gaps, permits input from key stakeholders, and creates an ordered set of risks based on what is known. Probabilistic risk assessments could be a follow‐up from these risk reviews. In regard to risk management, the states, in particular, have become major drivers of how resources are driven. States use different laws, different priorities, and challenge DOE's policies in different ways. Land use decisions vary, technology choices are different, and other notable variations are apparent. The cost differences associated with these differences are marked. The net result is that resources do not necessarily go to the most prominent human health and safety risks, as seen from the national level.     

Modeling the Cost Effectiveness of Fire Protection Resource Allocation in the United States: Models and a 1980–2014 Case Study

The estimated cost of fire in the United States is about $329 billion a year, yet there are gaps in the literature to measure the effectiveness of investment and to allocate resources optimally in fire protection. This article fills these gaps by creating data‐driven empirical and theoretical models to study the effectiveness of nationwide fire protection investment in reducing economic and human losses. The regression between investment and loss vulnerability shows high R² values (≈0.93). This article also contributes to the literature by modeling strategic (national‐level or state‐level) resource allocation (RA) for fire protection with equity‐efficiency trade‐off considerations, while existing literature focuses on operational‐level RA. This model and its numerical analyses provide techniques and insights to aid the strategic decision‐making process. The results from this model are used to calculate fire risk scores for various geographic regions, which can be used as an indicator of fire risk. A case study of federal fire grant allocation is used to validate and show the utility of the optimal RA model. The results also identify potential underinvestment and overinvestment in fire protection in certain regions. This article presents scenarios in which the model presented outperforms the existing RA scheme, when compared in terms of the correlation of resources allocated with actual number of fire incidents. This article provides some novel insights to policymakers and analysts in fire protection and safety that would help in mitigating economic costs and saving lives.     

Cooperation Versus Confrontation: A Comparison of Approaches to Environmental Risk Management in Japan and the United States1

This paper compares approaches to environmental risk management in Japan and the United States. The paper includes an historical examination of two case studies of environmental risk management: synthetic detergents and lead in gasoline. In addition, the paper discusses several important differences between Japan and the United States, including (a) different attitudes toward separating environmental risk management from environmental risk assessment, and (b) different approaches toward environmental risk management. Specifically, the Japanese approach is based largely on a cooperative model of risk management, with a strong emphasis on negotiation and consensus-building, while the U.S. approach is based largely on a confrontational model of risk management, with a strong emphasis on rigorous scientific analysis and open adverserial processes.     

What Do We Learn from Emissions Reporting? Analytical Considerations and Comparison of Pollutant Release and Transfer Registers in the United States,Canada, England,and Australia

Pollutant release and transfer registers (PRTRs) are becoming a popular measure for addressing industrial pollution in many countries. PRTRs require reporting of emissions from specific industrial sectors and making the information publicly available. This article suggests a framework for comparing PRTRs in order to determine whether they attain their declared goals and which factors, if any, influence their effectiveness. The challenges to such a comparison can be divided into three groups. The first refers to changes that are directly linked to the characteristics of PRTRs: both the changes within a specific system over time and variations among different systems. The second refers to parameters that affect the outcomes of the systems without being directly a part of them. The third involves the relations between the emissions reported to the PRTRs and the associated environmental risk. We suggest an approach that relies on relative comparison, commensurate with the unique characteristics of each PRTR, that compares their actual outcomes. Such an approach is necessary both due to significant variations among current PRTRs as well as for following the unique policy objectives that are manifested in different PRTRs. Application of this comparative approach in the United States, England, Canada, and Australia demonstrates significant differences in PRTR systems across countries and suggests that the mere presence of a PRTR may not lead to reduced industrial emissions. The analysis also demonstrates that emission reductions do not correlate with reductions in risk-related measures. The article proposes several simple modifications to the composition of current PRTR databases that may facilitate more accurate analysis of results and effective oversight of implementation.     

非营利组织理事会角色与责任研究--基于中美比较分析的视角

无论是理论上的逻辑推理,还是实践中的经验总结,都揭示出非营利组织理事会所扮演的角色和承担的责任要重于企业董事会,清晰地界定理事会角色与责任是非营利组织治理的首要课题.利用因子分析可以将理事会角色与责任分为高级人力资源管理、决策、财务管理、筹资、维护与任务环境关系五类.通过中美之间的比较分析,可以以美国为参照系,折射出中国非营利组织理事会角色与责任的现实状况.实证分析的结果显示,发达国家非营利组织理事会在承担角色和责任方面要全面领先于中国.而就中国而言,基金会理事会在某些方面优于社会团体.     

Consumer Risk Perceptions Toward Agricultural Biotechnology, Self-Protection, and Food Demand: The Case of Milk in the United States

This study is an econometric systems approach to modeling the factors and linkages affecting risk perceptions toward agricultural biotechnology, self-protection actions, and food demand. This model is applied to milk in the United States, but it can be adapted to other products as well as other categories of risk perceptions. The contribution of this formulation is the ability to examine how explanatory factors influence risk perceptions and whether they translate into behavior and ultimately what impact this has on aggregate markets. Hadden's outrage factors on heightening risk perceptions are among the factors examined. In particular, the article examines the role of labeling as a means of permitting informed consent to mitigate outrage factors. The effects of attitudinal, economic, and demographic factors on risk perceptions are also explored, as well as the linkage between risk perceptions, consumer behavior, and food demand. Because risk perceptions and self-protection actions are categorical variables and demand is a continuous variable, the model is estimated as a two-stage mixed system with a covariance correction procedure suggested by Amemiya. The findings indicate that it is the availability of labeling, not the price difference, between that labeled milk and milk produced with recombinant bovine Somatotropin (rbST) that significantly affects consumer's selection of rbST-free milk. The results indicate that greater availability of labeled milk would not only significantly increase the proportion of consumers who purchased labeled milk, its availability would also reduce the perception of risk associated with rbST, whether consumers purchase it or not. In other words, availability of rbST-free milk translates into lower risk perceptions toward milk produced with rbST.     

Effects of air pollution and weather on the initial COVID-19 outbreaks in United States,Italy, Spain,and China: A comparative study

Contrasting effects have been identified in association of weather (temperature and humidity) and pollutant gases with COVID-19 infection, which could be derived from the influence of lockdowns and season change. The influence of pollutant gases and climate during the initial phases of the pandemic, before the closures and the change of season in the northern hemisphere, is unknown. Here, we used a spatial-temporal Bayesian zero-inflated-Poisson model to test for short-term associations of weather and pollutant gases with the relative risk of COVID-19 disease in China (first outbreak) and the countries with more cases during the initial pandemic (the United States, Spain and Italy), considering also the effects of season and lockdown. We found contrasting association between pollutant gases and COVID-19 risk in the United States, Italy, and Spain, while in China it was negatively associated (except for SO₂). COVID-19 risk was positively associated with specific humidity in all countries, while temperature presented a negative effect. Our findings showed that short-term associations of air pollutants with COVID-19 infection vary strongly between countries, while generalized effects of temperature (negative) and humidity (positive) with COVID-19 was found. Our results show novel information about the influence of pollution and weather on the initial outbreaks, which contribute to unravel the mechanisms during the beginning of the pandemic.     

Avoiding Covid-19 risk information in the United States: The role of attitudes,norms, affect,social dominance orientations,and perceived trustworthiness of scientists

This study seeks guidance from the planned risk information avoidance model to explore drivers of risk information avoidance in the context of COVID-19. Data were collected early during the pandemic. Among our most notable results is that participants who are more oriented toward social dominance and are more skeptical of scientists’ credibility have (1) more supportive attitudes toward risk information avoidance and (2) feel social pressure to avoid risk information. The findings of this study highlight how the role of skepticism in science and intergroup ideologies, such as social dominance, can have important implications for how people learn about health-related information, even in times of heightened crisis.