GLUTTONY AND SLOTH? CALORIES,LABOR MARKET ACTIVITY AND THE RISE OF OBESITY

The rise in obesity has largely been attributed to an increase in calorie consumption. We show that official government household survey data indicate that levels of calorie consumption have declined in England between 1980 and 2013; while there has been an increase in calories from food eaten out at restaurants, fast food, soft drinks and confectionery, overall there has been a decrease in total calories purchased. Households have shifted towards more expensive calories, both by substituting away from home production towards market production, and substituting towards higher quality foods. We show that the decline in calories can be partially, but not entirely, rationalized with weight gain by a decline in the strenuousness of work and daily life. (JEL: D12, I12, I18)     

HOW DO INFORMAL AGREEMENTS AND REVISION SHAPE CONTRACTUAL REFERENCE POINTS?

The notion of contracts as reference points provides the basis for a deeper understanding of important phenomena such as the employment contract, vertical integration, firm scope, authority, and delegation. Previous experiments lend support to this notion but they ignore realistic aspects of trading relationships such as informal agreements and ex‐post renegotiation or revision. Here we show that the central behavioral mechanism underlying contractual reference points is robust to such considerations. Our data reveal that informal agreements can mitigate the trade‐off between rigidity and flexibility but they do not fully resolve the problem of misaligned reference points. Our experiments also show that contract revision is a more nuanced process than the previous literature has recognized. We find, for example, that it is sometimes better for parties to write a simple (rigid) contract and then revise it ex post if needed, rather than to anticipate and include future contingencies in a (flexible) contract from the outset.     

COMPETITION AND GENDER PREJUDICE: ARE DISCRIMINATORY EMPLOYERS DOOMED TO FAIL?

According to Becker's famous theory on discrimination (Gary Becker, 1957 , The Economics of Discrimination, University of Chicago Press), entrepreneurs with a strong prejudice against female workers forgo profits by submitting to their tastes. In a competitive market their firms lack efficiency and are therefore forced to leave. We present new empirical evidence for this prediction by studying the survival of start‐up firms in longitudinal matched employer–employee data. We find that firms with strong preferences for discrimination approximated by a low share of female employees relative to the industry average have significantly shorter survival rates. This is especially relevant for firms starting out with female shares in the lower tail of the distribution. Competition at the industry level additionally reduces firm survival and accelerates the rate at which prejudiced firms are weeded out. We also find evidence for employer learning as highly discriminatory start‐up firms that manage to survive submit to market powers and increase their female workforce over time.     

MASS MEDIA AND SOCIAL CHANGE: CAN WE USE TELEVISION TO FIGHT POVERTY?

This paper explores the potential use of entertainment media programs for achieving development goals. I propose a simple framework for interpreting media effects that hinges on three channels: (i) information provision, (ii) role modeling and preference change, and (iii) time use. I then review the existing evidence on how exposure to commercial television and radio affects outcomes such as fertility preferences, gender norms, education, migration, and social capital. I complement these individual country studies with cross‐country evidence from Africa and with a more in‐depth analysis for Nigeria, using the Demographic Health Surveys. I then consider the potential educational role of entertainment media, starting with a discussion of the psychological underpinnings and then reviewing recent rigorous evaluations of edutainment programs. I conclude by highlighting open questions and avenues for future research. (JEL: O12)     

WHO IS ‘BEHAVIORAL’? COGNITIVE ABILITY AND ANOMALOUS PREFERENCES

In this paper, we ask whether variation in preference anomalies is related to variation in cognitive ability. Evidence from a new laboratory study of Chilean high‐school students with similar schooling backgrounds shows that small‐stakes risk aversion and short‐run discounting are less common among those with higher standardized test scores. The relationship with test scores survives controls for parental education and wealth. We find some evidence that elementary‐school GPA is predictive of preferences measured at the end of high school. Two laboratory interventions provide suggestive evidence of a possible causal impact of cognitive resources on expressed preferences.     

WHY DO MOST ITALIAN YOUTHS LIVE WITH THEIR PARENTS? INTERGENERATIONAL TRANSFERS AND HOUSEHOLD STRUCTURE

More than 80% of Italian men aged 18–30 live with their parents. We argue that one contributing factor to this remarkably high rate of cohabitation is parents' tastes for coresidence. In order to investigate the role of parental preferences, we estimate the effect of exogenous changes in parental income on rates of cohabitation in Italy using Survey of Households' Income and Wealth (SHIW) micro data from 1989 to 2000. In order to identify a source of exogenous variation in parental income, we use changes in fathers' retirement age induced by the 1992 reform of the Italian Social Security system as an instrumental variable for parental income. By raising retirement age, this reform forced some fathers to remain in the labor market longer than they would have otherwise, therefore raising their disposable income. We use a two‐sample instrumental variable (TSIV) strategy. Our TSIV estimates indicate that a rise in parents' income significantly raises the children's propensity to live at home: A 10% increase in annual parental income results in approximately a 10% rise in the proportion of men living with their parents. Although we cannot definitely rule out alternative interpretations, these results are consistent with our hypothesis that cohabitation is a normal good for Italian parents. (JEL: J120, J610, H550)     

COORDINATION FAILURES AND THE LENDER OF LAST RESORT: WAS BAGEHOT RIGHT AFTER ALL?

The classical doctrine of the Lender of Last Resort (LOLR), elaborated by Bagehot (1873), asserts that the central bank should lend to “illiquid but solvent” banks under certain conditions. Several authors have argued that this view is now obsolete: in modern interbank markets, a solvent bank cannot be illiquid. This paper provides a possible theoretical foundation for rescuing Bagehot's view. Our theory does not rely on the multiplicity of equilibria that arises in classical models of bank runs. We built a model of banks' liquidity crises that possesses a unique Bayesian equilibrium. In this equilibrium, there is a positive probability that a solvent bank cannot find liquidity assistance in the market. We derive policy implications about banking regulation (solvency and liquidity ratios) and interventions of the Lender of Last Resort. Furthermore, we find that public (bailout) and private (bail‐in) involvement are complementary in implementing the incentive efficient solution and that Bagehot's Lender of Last Resort facility must work together with institutions providing prompt corrective action and orderly failure resolution. Finally, we derive similar implications for an International Lender of Last Resort (ILOLR). (JEL: G21, G28)     

WHERE ARE THE ECONOMISTS WHO PUBLISH? PUBLICATION CONCENTRATION AND RANKINGS IN EUROPE BASED ON CUMULATIVE PUBLICATIONS

We measure the past production of research articles by current members of European economics institutions. All EconLit journals are used, weighted to reflect differences in quality. Both a long (1971–2000) and a short (1996–2000) time period are considered. We also provide production indices that take into account the authors' career length. The total output of each research center is measured as well as its production per member. The focus is on 600 centers from eighteen European countries (EU 14, Israel, Norway, Switzerland, and Turkey). European centers are compared to the top sixty U.S. economics departments. Statistics regarding the concentration of article production across researchers, institutions, and countries are provided, as well as on publication habits. (JEL: A14, L11, R32)     

HOW DESTRUCTIVE IS CREATIVE DESTRUCTION? EFFECTS OF JOB LOSS ON JOB MOBILITY,WITHDRAWAL AND INCOME

We analyze short and long‐term effects of worker displacement. Our sample consists of male workers displaced from Norwegian manufacturing plants. We find that displacement increases the probability of leaving the labor force by 31%. The drop‐out rate from the labor force is particularly high in the first years following displacement. The average earnings effects for those who remain in the labor force are moderate, a 3% loss relative to non‐displaced workers after seven years. Splitting displaced workers on within‐ and between‐firm movers, we find that the estimated earnings loss is entirely driven by between‐firm movers who experience a 3.6% loss. Transfers to other plants within multi‐plant firms upon displacement are quite common. Our results support the view that human capital is partly firm specific and partly industry specific. We find no evidence suggesting that human capital is plant specific.     

DO HOUSE PRICES DRIVE CONSUMPTION GROWTH? THE COINCIDENT CYCLES OF HOUSE PRICES AND CONSUMPTION IN THE UK

This paper uses a realistic structural lifecycle model of consumption and housing decisions to understand how data might distinguish different mechanisms that explain the correlation between house prices and consumption. The model includes price and earnings shocks estimated from data (the latter including aggregate and idiosyncratic components), and incorporates realistic features of the UK mortgage market. We simulate the model using more than 30 years of realized shocks and under counterfactual scenarios. Our results confirm the intuition of earlier studies: house price shocks should have a larger effect on the consumption of older households and earnings shocks on young households.     

AND1的创业经——专业细分让它迅速发展，产品线扩张让它陷入困境

赛思·伯杰是AND1的创建者和前任CEO。AND1是一家以篮球鞋和篮球衣为细分市场的公司,它是伯杰和几个同学于上世纪90年代初在沃顿上学的时候创建的。AND1最初的产品线专门针对青少年篮球运动员,后来将产品线扩展到了整个服装行业。在伯杰的领导下,公司的营业额从1993年的100万美元增加到2001年的2亿美元。2005年,伯杰将AND1卖给了位于加利福尼亚州阿纳海姆的一家私人鞋品公司——American Sporting Goods。以下是沃顿在线采访时,赛思·伯杰对自己创业的经验和教训的回顾。     

DOES INFLATION TARGETING ANCHOR LONG‐RUN INFLATION EXPECTATIONS? EVIDENCE FROM THE U.S., UK,AND SWEDEN4

We investigate the extent to which inflation expectations have been more firmly anchored in the United Kingdom–‐a country with an explicit inflation target–‐than in the United States–‐a country with no such target–‐using the difference between far‐ahead forward rates on nominal and inflation‐indexed bonds as a measure of compensation for expected inflation and inflation risk at long horizons. We show that far‐ahead forward inflation compensation in the U.S. exhibits substantial volatility, especially at low frequencies, and displays a highly significant degree of sensitivity to economic news. Similar patterns are evident in the UK prior to 1997, when the Bank of England was not independent, but have been strikingly absent since the Bank of England gained independence in 1997. Our findings are further supported by comparisons of dispersion in longer‐run inflation expectations of professional forecasters and by evidence from Sweden, another inflation‐targeting country with a relatively long history of inflation‐indexed bonds. Our results support the view that an explicit and credible inflation target helps to anchor the private sector's views regarding the distribution of long‐run inflation outcomes. (JEL: E31, E52, E58)