Monitoring and evaluation under the PRSP: solid rock or quicksand?

Over the last few years a shift has taken place in the aid instruments advocated for low-income countries, characterised by a conversion from project to more programme-oriented aid and by the inclusion of 'broad-based civil society participation' as an aid conditionality. Poverty Reduction Strategy Papers (PRSPs) constitute a new framework for policy negotiations with the recipient government as well as a new set of rules for aid implementation. So far scant attention has been paid to strengthening monitoring and evaluation. This paper contributes to this under-exploited field of research by stocktaking and assessing different aspects of M&E systems for a selected number of Sub-Saharan African countries. Findings of our desk study confirm that M&E is among the weaker parts of the new aid architecture. The PRSP approach seeks improvements in M&E, but its unrealistic ambitions put embryonic national M&E systems under undue stress.     

Building national M&E systems in the context of changing aid modalities: The underexplored potential of National Evaluation Societies

Changes in the aid architecture have provided a renewed impetus for monitoring and evaluation (M&E), while simultaneously imposing a major reform agenda on the key players involved. More specifically, since 1999, aid-dependent countries have been facing pressure to strengthen their national M&E systems, while donors have been asked to refrain from using their own parallel systems and to rely instead on country systems. Surprisingly, attempts to strengthen national M&E frameworks have thus far largely overlooked the potential of national evaluation societies (NES). Similarly, NES have also remained off the academic radar. Our study aims to fill this gap by mapping key features of NES, as well as their perceived contributions to country-led M&E. In this effort, we rely upon evidence from our survey of 23 NES in Sub-Saharan African countries with Poverty Reduction Strategy Papers (PSRP). Our findings show that there is quite some diversity among NES. Overall, NES are active organisations, whose unique membership features a wide variety of national M&E stakeholders who potentially play key roles in country-led and localised M&E development. Major obstacles faced by NES include the lack of financial resources, donor support and political influence. Survey findings also demonstrate that the increasing interest of donors and governments in NES has yet to materialise into strategic support.     

Dichotomy of development aid’s ambition and neoliberal imperatives: A case‐study of private‐sector development in Bangladesh

Development in the twenty‐first century (“neo‐liberalism”) is a tool and its success and sustainability depend on how this tool is applied on a specific grounded reality. This article investigates how this modernization process continually co‐creates globalized Bangladesh through private sector development. While this field report highlights the challenges development aid donors can face in Bangladesh’s post‐colonial culture, it also unveils the dichotomous traction between globalization and inequality as well as the friction poverty reduction, through private sector development, can generate in impoverished countries. Finally, this report attempts to reconsider the ways in which the aid development ambitions of equality and liberty can find a workable balance with the neo‐liberal Imperative for private sector development. This article calls for improving quality control to generate greater impact of development aid resources in developing private sectors.     

Will ‘Emerging Donors’ Change the Face of International Co‐operation?

Responding to the recent upsurge of interest in ‘emerging donors’, this article argues that the DAC share of aid is likely to decline only slowly from what is a historically high level, and at least some non‐DAC donors are likely to see DAC approaches and norms as relevant. Nevertheless, low‐income countries seem likely to have a wider range of financing options. Three key risks are that: they prejudice their debt situation by borrowing on inappropriate terms; they use low‐conditionality aid to postpone necessary adjustment; and they waste resources on unproductive investments. DAC members should develop constructive dialogue with other bilateral donors based on recognition that sustainable development and poverty reduction should be the core purpose of aid.     

Brazil and the Shifting Consensus on Development Co‐operation: Salutary Diversions from the ‘Aid‐effectiveness’ Trail?

Emerging economies emphasise horizontality and mutual opportunity in their relationship with developing countries, promising an alternative to the failings of traditional North‐South co‐operation. This article draws on research on Brazil's technical co‐operation and its health dimension to compare the Brazilian model with established aid‐effectiveness' principles and to discuss the appropriateness of the latter as standards against which to appraise emerging donors' co‐operation. The analysis shows that, despite progress towards greater dialogue between traditional and emerging donors, the ‘aid‐effectiveness’ framework still falls short of capturing the idiosyncrasies of South‐South co‐operation and therefore offers an incomplete international standard on how best to conduct development co‐operation.     

Responses to global challenges: trends in aid‐financed global public goods

Based on four decades (1973–2013) of OECD‐Development Assistance Committee aid to developing countries, this article aims to show aid‐financed global public goods trends, their changing composition and their main drivers. In particular, a constant increase in the share of aid‐financed global public goods and a shift towards weighted‐sum and weakest‐link global goods are observed. Economic conditions, imitation effects, global engagement and domestic spending result as the main drivers of donors’ demand for aid‐financed global public goods. Besides, a certain complementarity in the provision of global goods plays a role, especially in European countries and Japan, partially easing the prognosis for the collective action problems related to global goods     

MULTIFACETED AID FOR LOW‐INCOME STUDENTS AND COLLEGE OUTCOMES: EVIDENCE FROM NORTH CAROLINA

We study the evolution of a campus‐based aid program for low‐income students that began with grant‐heavy financial aid and later added a suite of nonfinancial supports. We find little to no evidence that program eligibility during the early years (2004–2006), in which students received additional institutional grant aid and few nonfinancial supports, improved postsecondary progress, performance, or completion. In contrast, program‐eligible students in more recent cohorts (2007–2010), when the program supplemented grant‐heavy aid with an array of nonfinancial supports, were more likely to meet credit accumulation benchmarks toward timely graduation and earned higher grade point averages than their barely ineligible counterparts. (JEL I21, I23, I24, J08)     

The contribution of social support to the material well‐being of low‐income families

We hypothesize that the social support available from low‐income networks serves primarily a coping function, rather than a leverage function. Social support and its relationship to material well‐being is assessed in a sample of 632 former and current welfare recipients. Respondents report higher levels of perceived emotional, instrumental, and informational support than perceived financial support, and received financial aid is particularly uncommon. Multivariate findings demonstrate that perceived support is unrelated to employment quality, but it reduces the likelihood of living in poverty and is associated with three different measures of coping. These findings generally support the contention that informal aid is important for the everyday survival of low‐income families, but is less able to assist with economic mobility.     

INFLATION DYNAMICS AND THE OUTPUT‐INFLATION TRADE‐OFF: INTERNATIONAL PANEL DATA EVIDENCE

We explore the impact of inflation and its variability on the output‐inflation trade‐off using a single‐step approach in a panel data context. Previous empirical approaches focus on either cross‐country or country‐by‐country time‐series analyses. We employ a dynamic heterogeneous panel specification using an all‐encompassing estimation framework accounting for parameter heterogeneity, cross‐sectional dependence, dynamics, and nonstationarity. Our sample covers 60 countries from 1970 to 2010. While inflation variability reduces the trade‐off for specific periods and country groups, an unambiguous and more pronounced negative relation emerges between the inflation rate and the trade‐off. The findings are consistent with the New Keynesian view. (JEL E31, E12, C23)     

Institutional Environments,Sociopolitical Processes,and Health Movement Organizations: The Growth of Self‐Help/Mutual‐Aid1

This study examines the relationship between sociopolitical processes and health social movement organization formation. Two central research questions are posed: How do self‐help/mutual‐aid institutional environments characterized by professional actors, the state, and social movements influence organizational formation, and do these influences grow stronger or weaker as the self‐help/mutual‐aid movement matures? Analyses comparing the impact of institutional factors such as physician hegemony and autonomy, professional affiliation, state spending, and political ties on self‐help/mutual‐aid founding rates reveal negative effects of professionals but positive effects of the state. These relationships tend to grow stronger as the movement matures. For example, declining professional authority increasingly eases organizational foundings during movement maturity as does the beneficial impact on formation of state expansion in health markets and political ties. Implications are discussed.     

Political‐Economy Analysis,Aid Effectiveness and the Art of Development Management

Recognising that aid effectiveness critically depends upon the quality of host‐country institutions and policies, international aid agencies have sought to inform their activities through more systematic political‐economy analysis (PEA). In this article, three analytical frameworks for PEA are compared, contrasted and critically appraised in the light of reflections by PEA practitioners and recent theoretical debate about development management. The article finds that the potential of PEA to improve development effectiveness depends on how far it addresses the micro as well as macro politics of aid and permits a finer‐grained engagement between analysis and action. This requires more reflexivity on the part of those who commission and produce PEA, and further movement from intervention to interaction modalities for aid delivery.     

SMALL‐ AND MEDIUM‐SIZED ENTERPRISE FINANCING AND SECURITIZATION: FIRM‐LEVEL EVIDENCE FROM THE EURO AREA

This paper analyzes the impact of securitization on access to finance for small and medium‐sized enterprises (SMEs) in the euro area. Using firm‐level survey data on SME financing conditions, we show that an increase in securitization issuance reduces the probability of SMEs facing credit constraints and decreases the costs of bank financing for nonconstrained firms. Our results reveal that in addition to the volume of securitization, its type and quality matter for credit extension to SMEs. The paper thus provides empirical support for recent initiatives to revive securitization in Europe and for effective monetary policy transmission in the euro area. (JEL D22, E44, E51, E58, G21)     

Monolingual and bilingual infants’ word segmentation abilities in an inter‐mixed dual‐language task

Previous studies show that young monolingual infants use language‐specific cues to segment words in their native language. Here, we asked whether 8 and 10‐month‐old infants (N = 84) have the capacity to segment words in an inter‐mixed bilingual context. Infants heard an English‐French mixed passage that contained one target word in each language, and were then tested on their recognition of the two target words. The English‐monolingual and French‐monolingual infants showed evidence of segmentation in their native language, but not in the other unfamiliar language. As a group, the English‐French bilingual infants segmented in both of their native languages. However, exploratory analyses suggest that exposure to language mixing may play a role in bilingual infants’ segmentation skills. Taken together, these results indicate a close relation between language experience and word segmentation skills.     

ON GENDER GAPS AND SELF‐FULFILLING EXPECTATIONS: ALTERNATIVE IMPLICATIONS OF PAID‐FOR TRAINING

This paper presents a model of self‐fulfilling expectations by firms and households which generates multiplicity of equilibria in pay and housework time allocation for ex‐ante identical spouses. Multiplicity arises from statistical discrimination exerted by firms in the provision of paid‐for training to workers, rather than from incentive problems in the labor market. Employers' beliefs about differences in spouses' reactions to housework shocks lead to symmetric (ungendered) and asymmetric (gendered) equilibria. We find that: (1) the ungendered equilibrium tends to prevail as aggregate productivity in the economy increases (regardless of the generosity of family aid policies), (2) the ungendered equilibrium could yield higher welfare under some scenarios, and (3) gender‐neutral job subsidies are more effective that gender‐targeted ones in removing the gendered equilibrium. (JEL J16, J70, J71)     

STOP‐GO MONETARY POLICY

We propose and estimate several discrete choice models of monetary policy decision‐making that feature time‐varying inertia. The models permit us to account for three stylized facts characterizing monetary policymaking in the United States: (1) target interest rates are gradually adjusted in small discrete movements, (2) there are some long stretches of time in which rates are repeatedly moved, and (3) there are other long stretches in which the policy rate does not change. The models are used to account for delayed monetary policy responses to the recession of 2001 and to the housing‐driven expansion of 2003–2006. (JEL E52, E58, E65)     

Assessment of the monitoring and evaluation system of a population-based program: Theory-driven evaluation approach

The purpose of this study was to assess the performance of a monitoring and evaluation system (M&E) for a population-based program and to identify factors influencing its performance. The state health department provided a grant, guide, and training for health districts to implement the program and report quarterly and annually to the M&E. Some health districts did not meet this requirement. We also found that the M&E did not adequately capture the actual work of the districts in communities as related to the work plan. We identified several factors that negatively affected the performances of the M&E. For example, the state and health districts did not have a shared vision on how to develop and implement the program, and what to report to the M&E. We proposed strategies that could improve the timeliness and content of reports to the M&E, as well as its utilization in the future.     

Performance‐Based Aid: Why It Will Probably Not Meet Its Promises

Performance‐based aid (PBA) is increasingly advocated as a way to improve the effectiveness of development aid by resolving incentive issues inherent in aid relationships, and some donors use it together with performance‐based financing arrangements within partner countries. Expectations from PBA are high, but, while its rationale may look appealing, it is based on a restrictive model and is flawed when taking account of the real‐world context. A number of problems associated with PBA have already been observed, and its appropriateness to provide incentives all along the chain from recipient governments to those who are supposed to produce results is questionable. Thus believing that PBA can have a mechanistic trickle‐down incentive effect seems illusory.     

Self‐Soothing — A Recursive Intrapsychic and Relational Process: The Contribution of the Bowen Theory to the Process of Self‐Soothing

The concept of self‐soothing originating in the psychodynamic tradition has attracted interest from therapists as a key skill in the managing and regulating of strong affect and emotional discomfort. While a capacity for self‐soothing is implicit in, and a vital prerequisite to, the process of differentiation, Murray Bowen also predicted that the outcome of increased differentiation is improved emotional equilibrium and a capacity for self‐soothing, clearly a recursive process. The attention of Bowen family systems theory to both the relational and intrapsychic aspects of human functioning provides a useful framework through which to explore these aspects of the dynamics of self‐soothing. This article describes some of the key processes involved in developing a self‐soothing capacity within an effort to define a more autonomous self in significant relationships. The author contrasts Family Systems thinking with other theoretical perspectives that speak to the importance of self‐soothing. Finally, the role of the therapist as a facilitator of an environment in which the self‐soothing resources of clients can emerge is considered alongside suggestions and strategies for how a therapist may contribute to a client's own efforts.     

TEMPTATION‐DRIVEN BEHAVIOR AND TAXATION: A QUANTITATIVE ANALYSIS IN A LIFE‐CYCLE MODEL

This paper examines the impact of labor and capital income taxes in a stochastic overlapping generations (OLG) economy where agents face borrowing constraints and their behavior is temptation driven. We quantitatively establish that the existence of temptation in preferences may function as an opposing mechanism to modeling choices, such as liquidity constraints, life‐cycle structure, and idiosyncratic earnings risks, that are critical in delivering a positive capital income tax rate. We show that a sufficiently large measure of individuals having self‐control preferences, or alternatively, a sufficiently high cost of exercising self‐control, puts downward pressure on the optimal capital income tax rate. (JEL E21, E62, H55)     

THE PRODUCTION IMPACT OF “CASH‐FOR‐CLUNKERS”: IMPLICATIONS FOR STABILIZATION POLICY

Stabilization policies frequently aim to boost spending as a means to increase gross domestic product. Spending does not necessarily translate into production, however, especially when inventories are involved. We look at the “cash‐for‐clunkers” program that helped finance the purchase of nearly 700,000 vehicles in 2009. An analysis of auto sales and production movements reveals that the program did prompt a large spike in sales. But the program had only a modest and fleeting impact on production, as inventories buffered the movements in sales. These findings suggest caution in judging the efficacy of such policies by their impact on spending alone. (JEL E23, E65, L62)