Wage Determination in Post-War Italy

ABSTRACT: A bargaining model is proposed and tested in order to explain the irrelevance of the general labour market conditions to wage settlements in the post-war Italian economy. The model is a “right to manage model”, but the solution cannot be improved, being both on the labour demand curve and on the contract curve. The reason for such an outcome is that both firms and unions have priorities, and distinguish the labour force between insiders and outsiders. Different definitions of insiders are used, but in the postwar Italian economy the employees and ex-employees of the industrial sector appear to be the share of the labour force which have been better protected by both contractual parties.     

Modelling Wage Growth Dynamics in Italy, 1960-90

ABSTRACT: In this work we analyse the common dynamic properties of wage inflation, price inflation, unemployment and labour productivity using Italian annual data (1960-90, source: Prometeia). Applying multivariate cointegration technique we test for the presence of a wage equation and a price mark-up equation. The preferred identification suggests that it is possible to build up an error correction representation for the wage inflation, in which the rate of acceleration in wages depends on the contemporaneous rate of acceleration in prices and on the adjustment to long-run disequilibrium as represented by a Phillips type relation. This representation is rejected for the price inflation which turns out to be weakly exogenous within the system. Furthermore, there is evidence that wage inflation does not Granger-cause price inflation. The overall conclusion is that wage inflation does not contribute in explaining the price inflation process and the traditional mark-up view of inflation is not supported by data. The policy implication is that monetary policy need not respond to wage data because they do not contain additional information about the future path of inflation.     

Wage Dispersion and Equilibrium Search Models: Some Evidence from Italy

This paper provides a structural estimation of an equilibrium search model with on‐the‐job search and heterogeneity in firms' productivities using a sample of Italian male workers. Results indicate that arrival rates of offers for workers are higher when unemployed than when employed and firms exploit their monopsony power when setting wages. As a result, workers earn far less than their marginal product. The model is then used to study regional labour market differentials in Italy. Wide variation in frictional transition parameters across areas helps to explain persistent unemployment and wage differentials.     

A New Look at the Public Wage Premium in Italy: The Role of Schooling Endogeneity

This paper uses a sample of male workers to estimate public and private wage structures and the public wage premium for Italy. Results from a model with endogenous sector and schooling suggest that public employees have on average lower unobserved wage potentials in both sectors than private employees, but work in the sector where they benefit from a comparative wage advantage. Schooling is positively correlated with wages in both sectors, and controlling for that is crucial to get more reliable estimates and predictions. The associated average unconditional public wage premium is 12 per cent. The net premium is 9 per cent, but not statistically significant.     

Wage Cuts as Investment in Future Wage Growth

Abstract. Wage cuts are often presumed to reflect an adverse change in economic constraints. However, several theoretical models have shown they can be a form of investment in future wage growth. This paper provides empirical evidence of the latter by explicitly modeling the worker's job choice when the job offer consists of both a starting wage and expected future wage growth. We use our analytical model to estimate the distribution of job offers faced by workers who are searching across jobs differing in both initial wage and expected wage growth. For females, roughly one‐third of job changes that result in immediate wage cuts are transitions to jobs that have a higher value function than the existing job. For males, the corresponding value is one‐fifth.     

High Wage Workers and High Wage Firms

We study a longitudinal sample of over one million French workers from more than five hundred thousand employing firms. We decompose real total annual compensation per worker into components related to observable employee characteristics, personal heterogeneity, firm heterogeneity, and residual variation. Except for the residual, all components may be correlated in an arbitrary fashion. At the level of the individual, we find that person effects, especially those not related to observables like education, are a very important source of wage variation in France. Firm effects, while important, are not as important as person effects. At the level of firms, we find that enterprises that hire high-wage workers are more productive but not more profitable. They are also more capital and high-skilled employee intensive. Enterprises that pay higher wages, controlling for person effects, are more productive and more profitable. They are also more capital intensive but are not more high-skilled labor intensive. We find that person effects explain about 90% of inter-industry wage differentials and about 75% of the firm-size wage effect while firm effects explain relatively little of either differential.     

The Changing Informal Labour Market in Brazil: Cyclicality versus Excessive Intervention

Although following an anti-cyclical behaviour over the last decade, Brazil's informal sector seems to have grown recently as a response to excessive government intervention in the productive system. Despite high inflation and sluggish economic performance, Brazil continues to live with low unemployment and only sporadic social unrest. A substantial informal sector is thought to be acting as a cushion to help minimize labour market instability. This paper reviews the main concepts and methodologies proposed in the literature, summarizes the results obtained by different authors, and presents some additional information on the recent informalization of the Brazilian labour markets.     

Decentralized Public Sector Wage Determination: Wage Curve and Wage Comparison for Norwegian Teachers in the Pre‐WW2 Period

The recent trend towards decentralization of European public sector wage determination relaxes some of the central administered wage setting mechanisms developed in the post‐WW2 period. This paper discusses teacher wage determination in Norway in 1905–39, a period with a highly decentralized public sector wage formation. Separate wage equations for urban and rural areas are estimated. I find that the responsiveness to unemployment of the urban wage was of the same magnitude as in the post‐WW2 period private sector wage formation. In addition, the internal teacher labour market and local economic conditions influence the wage level. The rural wage mainly followed the urban wage.     

Reasons for Wage Rigidity in Germany

Abstract. This study investigates institutional and economic reasons for downward wage rigidity regarding three occupational skill groups. Based on a survey of 801 firms in Germany and an econometric analysis, we find strong support for explanations based on the effects of labour union contracts and efficiency wages that differ between skill groups. Survey respondents indicate that labour union contracts and implicit contracts are important reasons for wage rigidity for the (less) skilled. Specific human capital and negative signals for new hires are causes of the stickiness of wages for the highly skilled. Compared with US evidence, German firms seem to attach more importance to labour union contracts and specific human capital.     

Cyclicality of capital-intensive industries: a system dynamics simulation study of the paper industry

This paper provides a view on the cyclicality of capital-intensive industries that could add considerably to our understanding of how cycles in prices, profits and capacity come about. Previous studies of business cycles focus on macro-economic systems or on the agricultural sector. Causes for fluctuations are typically believed to be mainly exogenous in nature. We seek to extend the existing literature on industrial cycles by developing a model that incorporates endogenously generated cyclicality. A simulation model of the paper industry is developed, and validated on the basis of data for the US paper industry.     

Educational Attainment and Wage Inequality in Turkey

This paper analyses the relationship between wage distribution and educational attainment of the workforce. Wage inequality in Turkey decreased over 2002–10; a period over which it also saw an increase in the supply of educated workers. Our findings suggest that decreasing inequality in the bottom half of the distribution was largely due to decreasing returns to education and experience; whereas the moderate decline in inequality in the upper tail of the wage distribution is explained by a fall in returns to the ‘routine’ occupational tasks. The effect of changes in the composition of workers was found to be moderate.     

Delegation and Wage Determination in Trade Unions

Delegation of wage determination is modelled as the transferral of decision‐making rights to better‐informed agents. The rank and file of trade unions has less information and can, therefore, benefit from delegation. However, delegation might be disadvantageous for union members, since delegates pursue their own objectives. Also, delegates might incur a utility reduction, since becoming a delegate implies forfeiting a better‐paid outside option. We investigate under what conditions delegation of wage bargaining power is beneficial for union members and their potential leaders. The wage and employment effects of delegation are derived.     

Aspects of Relative Wage Flexibility in Greece

Abstract. Flexibility in relative wages can be either competitive or non-competitive. In Greece, in the period 1966–1988, wage and employment regulation as well as developments in industrial relations did not favour competitive flexibility and provided an environment conducive to non-competitive flexibility. With the noticeable exception of the period 1967–74, during which competitive forces emerged and played a dominant role, in 1966–88 the manufacturing labour market operated under the influence of industry-specific factors. Non-competitive flexibility associated with industry-specific changes in productivity in the long run and industry-specific rates of strike activity in the short run, influenced manufacturing relative wages. Furthermore, in 1977–88, the asymmetric response of industry wages to changes in industry productivity hindered employment growth.     

Strike Outcomes and Wage Settlements in Spain

Abstract. This paper analyses collective bargaining using Spanish firm‐level data. Central to the analysis are the joint determination of wage and strike outcomes in a dynamic framework and the possibility of separate wage equation for strike and non‐strike outcomes. Conditional to strikes taking place, we confirm a negative relationship between strike duration and wage changes in a dynamic context. In this sense, the joint effect of the strike variables is positive for short strikes and negative for long ones (above 20 days). Furthermore, we find selection in wage equations induced by the strike outcome. In this sense, the possibility of wage determination processes being different in strike and non‐strike samples is not rejected by the data. In particular, wage dynamics are of opposite sign in both strike and non‐strike equations. Finally, we find evidence of a 0.33 percentage points wage change strike premium.     

Wage Differentials between Ethnic Groups in Switzerland

This paper analyses the average wage differentials between various groups of immigrants and the Swiss workers. Classical Oaxaca‐Blinder decompositions are applied to a sample of 7,494 males (whose 1,070 immigrants) interviewed for the 1995 Swiss Labour Force Survey. Education and experience before and after migration are separately considered in two different ways. We control for sample selection in the wage and salary sector. We also investigate earnings differentials between natives and immigrants who arrived in the country before the age of 6. Our main results are that the part of differentials due to difference in coefficient varies strongly with different ethnic groups considered, that education is a strong determinant of the difference in observed characteristics and that second generation immigrants are fairly well assimilated in the Swiss labour market.     

The Gender Wage Gap and Poverty in Colombia

Abstract. Using 19 years of cross‐section wage data, we look at the trend of the ratio of male to female wages in Colombia. First, we observe a long‐term trend towards an increase in the gender wage gap that may be related to new labor regulations giving more protection to women and thereby raising the cost of female employment for firms. Second, we measure the impact on poverty of the increasing gap by producing estimates of the income distribution for the subsequent years had the wage gap remained at the low level it used to be in the early 1990s. As mainly low‐skilled women suffered from the increase in the wage gap, we find that the phenomenon contributed to an overall increase in poverty during the decade.     

Wage Expectations for Higher Education Students in Spain

We assess students' ability to forecast future earnings by using data on expected wages self‐reported by college students with different graduation horizons. We find a significant gender gap, by which wage expectations are systematically lower for women than for men. However, women do not fully account for the gender gap in their future earnings. We also find that student performance, degree type, and graduation horizon play a relevant role in wage forecasts. In any case, students' expectations do not conform market wages but become more realistic as they approach graduation.     

Preliminary Evidence on Wage Setting in Greek Manufacturing

Abstract. The negotiating power of the unions and their role in wage determination depends on the level of centralization of the wage bargaining system as well as on other institutional arrangements. In this study, we estimate a set of wage equations in order to study the employment effects of different unions’ stances in wage determination as well as to investigate other characteristics of employment in Greek manufacturing. We discriminate between workers and employees (blue‐ and white‐collar workers) and between sectors in order to capture differences in the relative supply as well as differences in the negotiating power among the staff of the same industry. Empirical findings reveal that the persistence of unemployment arises as a result of the great bargaining power of the unions in negotiations at a sectoral level. White‐collar workers exhibit a stronger negotiating power compared with blue‐collar workers because of differences in the institutional framework.     

Wage Flexibility for Skilled and Unskilled Workers: New Evidence on the Norwegian Wage Curve

Empirical evidence is provided in favour of a hypothesis that wages for unskilled workers are more responsive to unemployment than wages for skilled workers. The results imply vigorous wage responsiveness to low levels of unemployment for both groups, while the wage curves become almost entirely flat for unemployment rates above 1.7 percent. One interpretation of this result is that firms have strong incentives to increase wages in order to recruit and retain workers when unemployment is below some critical level. Since unemployed workers will certainly find work, the expected costs of a job loss are small, as are costs associated with an egalitarian wage policy.     

The Rise in Union Wage Premiums in South Africa

The earnings premium received by African, urban, male union members in South Africa, as compared to other regular, urban male employees, is explored using two national sample surveys conducted in 1985 and 1993. The historical setting of this change is of particular interest, in the light of the transformation from the apartheid regime. Union membership grew very rapidly during this interval, as earlier prohibitions on African unions were lifted. Subsequently, the high rates of unemployment and segmentation of the labor force have been issues of central concern to the new government, elected in 1994. In this context, the paper extends prior methodology, by systematically comparing possible approaches to estimation, in addition to contributing fresh empirical results. Four approaches to estimation are adopted, allowing for: a single earnings regime with union dummy variable; the possibility of different earnings regimes among union members as compared to non‐members; endogenous switching between such regimes; sample selection arising from lack of employment and from division between regular and informal work. A series of tests on nested specifications indicate the importance of recognizing endogenous switching between differing pay structures in the covered and uncovered sectors. However (as with previous research on the South African labor market), no sample selection is detected with respect to employment status. The results suggest that collective bargaining resulted in wage compression among the expanding union membership while significantly widening the gap between members and non‐members. The latter widening gap cannot be attributed to the changing composition of union membership as reflected in observed characteristics of employees.