影响朝鲜族生育水平的因素分析

中国朝鲜族育龄妇女的生育水平迅速下降,其影响因素是多方面的。因子分析的结果表明,计划生育政策和经济社会发展对朝鲜族生育水平的下降起了一定的作用,但是,朝鲜族独特的传统文化起了决定性的作用。     

Thinking about several problems of the research of our family planning strategy]

On the basis of 1982 census data, it is estimated that from 1987-1997 13 million women will enter the age of marriage and child-bearing each year. The tasks of keeping the population size around 1.2 billion by the year 2000 is arduous. Great efforts have to be made to continue encouraging one child/couple, and to pursue the current plans and policies and maintain strict control over fertility. Keeping population growth in pace with economic growth, environment, ecological balance, availability of per capita resources, education programs, employment capability, health services, maternal and child care, social welfare and social security should be a component of the long term development strategy of the country. Family planning is a comprehensive program which involves long cycles and complicated factors, viewpoints of expediency in guiding policy and program formulation for short term benefits are inappropriate. The emphasis of family planning program strategy should be placed on the rural areas where the majority of population reside. Specifically, the major aspects of strategic thrusts should be the linkage between policy implementation and reception, between family planning publicity and changes of ideation on fertility; the integrated urban and rural program management relating to migration and differentiation of policy towards minority population and areas in different economic development stages. In order to achieve the above strategies, several measures are proposed. (1) strengthening family planning program and organization structure; (2) providing information on population and contraception; (3) establishing family planning program network for infiltration effects; (4) using government financing, taxation, loan, social welfare and penalty to regulate fertility motivations; (5) improving the system of target allocation and data reporting to facilitate program implementation; (6) strengthening population projection and policy research; (7) and strengthening training of family planning personnel to improve program efficiency.     

论陕西省人口的低生育率水平

自70年代初大力推行计划生育以来,陕西的计划生育工作取得了巨大成就,人口过快增长的现象得到了有效控制,实现了人口再生产类型的转变,进入到低生育水平时期。21世纪初,中央作出了《关于加强人口与计划生育工作稳定低生育水平的决定》,提出了新时期人口与计划生育工作的主要任务是转向稳定低生育水平,提高出生人口素质。如何按照中央的要求进一步做好人口与计划生育工作,本文就陕西的低生育水平现状、存在问题及稳定低生育水平的不利因素作了进一步的分析研究,强调要充分认识到人口与计划生育工作的长期性、严峻性和复杂性,必须克服盲目乐观情绪,保持清醒头脑,坚持以人为本,提高计划生育服务质量和管理水平,才能保证低生育水平的稳定,促进人口与经济社会资源协调发展与可持续发展。     

Fertility in China 1982–1990: Gender equality as a complement to wealth flows theory

Some scholars claim there is little variation in Chinese fertility because of coercive family planning policies. This research, however, demonstrates that other factors contribute to significant variation in fertility rates among China's 30 provinces/administrative divisions. Although family planning and socioeconomic development are found to explain significant amounts of variation in fertility for both the 1982 and 1990 census cross-sections, it was also found that gender equality in education had become significant by 1990. Path model results that lag the effects of 1982 socioeconomic development and gender equality in education also indicate that they both have sizable direct effects and moderate indirect effects through family planning behavior on 1990 fertility rates. Discussions include the possibility that the recent free market and institutional reforms, e.g., the decollectivization of agriculture, have contributed a social structure whereby many Chinese families have increased awareness of the opportunity costs associated with their reproductive decision making.     

Theoretical explanation of rapid decline in China's fertility]

China's fertility decline is widely acknowledged. The 1982 census and a random survey of 1/1,000th of the nation's population set the total fertility rate at 2.6%. Bureau of statistics data collected in 1984 showed the nation's birth rate as 1.7% and total fertility rate 1.94%. Friendly observers call this a miracle; others blame the decline on forced government family planning policy. Scientific pursuit of the causes for the decline is an issue of practical and realistic value. First, favorable conditions for fertility decline have been fostered by the socialist system and are deeply rooted in the country's economic development. China's industrialization and urbanization have brought new lifestyles and liberated individuals and families from the constraints of traditional family life. Couples have chosen to limit the number of children, to enhance the quality of life and education potential of their children, thus altering the traditional high fertility in China. Education of women has played a role in raising women's consciousness; a 1982 census placed the fertility rate of women with high-school level education or above, lower than that for less or uneducated women. Neonatal mortality rate decline is also related to the spontaneous decline in fertility rate, as high fertility has historically been intended to compensate for high child mortality rates. Welfare and social security systems for the elderly have also helped change the traditional mentality of having many children as assurance of life support in old age. Social organizations have accelerated knowledge and methods of planned fertility. Later marriages are also a factor: in 1970 the average marriage age was 19 - 20 and had increased by 1976 to 22 - 23. Other favorable social factors include free birth control and the view of population planning as an essential part of national welfare.     

基层民主自治进程中乡村计划生育政策落实的困境及出路——基于基层治理中“不出事逻辑”的分析视角

本文对基层民主自治进程中乡村计划生育政策落实的困境及出路进行了探讨。基层民主自治是我国的一项基本政治制度,实行基层民主自治是发展中国特色社会主义民主政治的重要内容。但是在乡村推行基层民主自治的过程中,乡村计划生育政策的落实陷入一些困境,这些困境集中表现为计生政策与村民生育愿望、与村委会选举、与社会保障体系、与利益导向机制及与其它相关部门和政策的冲突与矛盾。鉴于此,本文相对应地提出了加强宣传教育、完善村民自治、健全社会保障体系、健全舆论导向机制以及加强政策的同向性与协调度等对策建议,以期推动计划生育政策在乡村进一步落实。     

Republic of Korea. Country feature

The Government of Korea's 5th 5-Year Economic and Social Development Plan (1982-86) seeks to reduce the population growth rate from its 1982 level of 1.58% to 1.49% by 1986; it is assumed that the population replacement level of fertility (total fertility rate, 2.1) will be attained in 1988. The task of achieving these demographic targets is expected to be made more difficult by factors such as the impact of the 1950s baby boom and widespread son preference. New population control policy measures announced in 1981 call for improvements in the current family planning program management system; a new social and institutional support system to inculcate the small family size norm; strengthened information, education, and communication activities for family planning; and establishment of coordination among the government organizations involved in population-related activities. Numerous social support measures have already been put into effect, including income tax exemptions for up to 2 children, inclusion of population education in the school curriculum, priority in alloting public housing to sterilization acceptors with 2 or fewer children, and provision of IUD services through the medical insurance system. The number of contraceptive acceptors in the government program increased 78.3% from 1981-83, from 614,000 to 1,094,600. Sterilization and menstrual regulation services have shown particularly sharp increases. Program achievement for 1983 was equivalent to 19% of eligible women ages 15-44 years. The total fertility rate stood at 2.7 in 1982. Major efforts now must be directed toward eradicating the strong parental son preference and ensuring better family planning program efficiency and effectiveness.     

论计划生育政策对实现福利适度人口的意义

我国人口问题十分严重,人口因素很难自发地与社会其他要素相适应,不利于社会经济的全面协调与可持续发展,对社会福利目标的实现构成了一定阻碍。我国计划生育政策的实施,解决了生育率与死亡率不对称性的矛盾,解决了物质资料再生产与人类自身再生产不平衡性的矛盾,解决了家庭生育计划与社会适度人口不一致性的矛盾,促进了人口因素与其他社会因素的协调与可持续性发展。     

Kenya's record population growth: a dilemma of development

The causes and implications of Kenya's 4% rate of natural increase and fertility rate of 8.1 births per woman were examined. Attention was directed to the following: pronatalist pressures; inadvertent pronatalist impact of development; women's education and employment and fertility; population growth and pressures; mortality decline and population growth; fertility levels and differentials; fertility desires; the family planning program; and family planning knowledge, attitudes, and practice. Kenya's development success has worked to push up the population growth rate. Improved health care and nutrition halved infant mortality from 160 to 87 deaths/1000 live births between 1958 and 1977 and a marked increase in primary school enrollment may be factors in the birthrate increase to 53/1000 population. At this time fertility is highest among women with 1-4 years of education. The 1977-1978 Kenya Fertility Survey showed that only 5.8% of married women were using modern contraception, indicating that the national family planning program, established in 1967, has made little progress. Program difficulties have included shortages of staff, supplies and easily accessible clinic as well as an almost universal desire on the part of Kenyans for families of at least 7 children. Children are viewed as essential to survival and status to the rural population.     

Sub-Saharan Africa: population pressures on development

The population of sub-Saharan Africa, estimated at 434 million in 1984, is expected to reach 1.4 billion by 2025. The birth rate, currently 48/1000 population, continues to increase, and the death rate, 17/1000, is declining. Rapid population growth has curtailed government efforts to provide adequate nutrition, preserve the land base essential for future development, meet the demand for jobs, education, and health services, and address overcrowding in urban areas. Low education, rural residence, and low incomes are key contributors to the area's high fertility. Other factors include women's restricted roles, early age at marriage, a need for children as a source of security and support in old age, and limited knowledge of and access to modern methods of contraception. Average desired family size, which is higher than actual family size in most countries, is 6-9 children. Although government leaders have expressed ambivalence toward development of population policies and family planning programs as a result of the identification of such programs with Western aid donors, the policy climat is gradually changing. By mid-1984, at least 13 of the 42 countries in the region had indicated that they consider current fertility rates too high and support government and/or private family planning programs to reduce fertility. In addition, 26 countries in the region provide some government family planning services, usually integrated with maternal and child health programs. However, 10 countries in the region do not support family planning services for any reason. Unfortunately, sub-Saharan Africa has not yet produced a family planning program with a measurable effect on fertility that could serve as a model for other countries in the region. Social and economic change is central to any hope of fertility reduction in sub-Saharan Africa. Lower infant and child mortality rates, rising incomes, higher education, greater economic and social opportunities for women, and increased security would provide a climate more conducive to fertility decline. Given the limited demand, great sensitivity must be shown in implementing family planning programs.     

Approaches to the Fertility Transition in Victorian England

The secular decline of marital fertility which took place in late nineteenth and early twentieth-century England and Wales is considered by using a number of approaches. Among the theoretical approaches considered are those of transition models, and social diffusion. The former overemphasises the role of industrialization and urbanization; the latter is inappropriate when dealing with the development of a small-family ideal in Victorian society. Explanations of fertility decline using ecological and time-series analysis are considered. The registration districts of England and Wales provide the framework for analyses of spatial variations in marital fertility and its correlates in 1861, 1891 and 1911. A time-series analysis attempts to establish the sequential nature of social, economic and demographic changes during the sixty years preceding the First World War. The following points are emphasised in conclusion. The Victorian fertility transition was not directly related to the development of an urban-industrial society, the social diffusion of family ideals or the use of appliance methods of contraception. But its immediate cause was probably linked to the substantial increase in family planning literature available from the 1870s, and the challenge that this posed to the tradition of unlimited marital fertility. This critical change in social attitudes to family planning was facilitated both by developments in mass education and, ultimately by the decline of infant mortality.     

Socialist spiritual civilization enhances consciousness in family planning

Since 1985, there have been no cases of coercion in the practice of family planning and yet also no unplanned births among the over 1200 members of the Chinese Communist Party in Hunan Province's Fuxing Township. Ideological work is aimed at demonstrating that fertility control is in the interest of both individuals and the state. All township cadres are asked by the government to take the lead in practicing family planning, publicizing population policies, and assisting in solving the difficulties of the masses. They are further expected to take the lead in the provision of 5 services: 1) publicity about population theory and family planning policy; 2) birth control training and provision; 3) management and distribution of contraceptives; 4) maternal-child health services, including free health check-ups for the 870 children in the township and follow-up visits to the 2100 women who have undergone tubal ligation; and 5) development of social welfare and assistance to 1-child households.     

A review of the studies on fertility transition in China]

This article is a summary of papers and analysis in recent years on fertility transition and the association between fertility decline and socioeconomic development in China. These papers discuss the causes of fertility decline and the role of family planning programs in demographic transition. The major points are: 1. The demographic transition in China has the same characteristics as in the countries that have completed the transition. The transition had already started in the more developed areas or completed in a few large cities before family planning programs were implemented. 2. The role of family planning programs is to lead and to accelerate the demographic transition, which is the key idea of the "induced fertility transition". 3. The socioeconomic development and family planning programs worked together to affect the fertility decline, however socioeconomic development is the fundamental factor. Without the existence of the socioeconomic development, which included the changes in the function of family, traditional ideas on fertility, increased level of education, the status of women and social security system; the family planning program is not likely to make an impact.     

"发展-计划生育-生育率"的动态关系:中国省级数据再考察

顾宝昌在1987年利用省级数据考察了中国的生育率,通过路径分析得出社会经济发展和计划生育对中国生育率都有重要的直接影响的结论.李建民在2004年分析了我国低生育率的经济环境,提出1990年代我国生育率的下降应该主要是社会和经济发展的结果.基于这些结论或假设,本文利用中国省级数据,再次考察"发展-计划生育-生育率"关系,结果表明在过去30年里,计划生育的作用在下降,而社会经济发展的作用在增强.1970年代计划生育的作用是主导,1980年代计划生育与社会经济发展二者的作用基本达到了平衡,而1990年代社会经济发展的作用成为主导."发展-计划生育-生育率"关系呈献出一种动态平衡.     

Socioeconomic determinants of China's urban fertility

This paper examines socioeconomic forces other than population policies and family planning programs that have affected the fertility transition in urban China. The authors argue that before and since the intensification of population planning activities, the government influenced fertility directly and indirectly through socialization of the economy, the transformation of the Chinese family, and the provision of education, employment, health, medical, welfare, cultural, and related services in urban areas. The various social institutions and subsystems of society have greatly weakened the motivation for large families. The byproducts of the slow urbanization process in urban China including housing shortages, unemployment, rising living standards, changes in the cost of raising a child, and urban-rural downward mobility have affected the social and economic costs of childbearing, which in turn have affected the postponement of childbearing. Thus, our considerations of urban China's fertility transition must be broadened to include the issues of social development strategy in Chinese urban experience.     

Marriage form and fertility in rural China: an investigation in three counties

Using data from two surveys in three counties where the prevalence of uxorilocal marriage differs greatly, this paper analyzes impact of marriage form, individual, family, and social factors on fertility and its regional differences. The results show that, under the Chinese patrilineal joint family system, uxorilocal marriage does not universally increase fertility, which is likely to be determined by other factors. It is further found that fertility differs greatly in the three regions, and is significantly lower in regions where uxorilocal marriage is common than in regions where virilocal marriage is dominant. Women’s marriage cohort, age at first marriage, and number of sisters all have significant effects on fertility. These findings address the process and consequences of change in rural family and marriage customs during the current demographic and social transition.     

Reproductive control in apartheid South Africa

Since its inception in 1974, the South African family planning programme has been widely believed to be linked with white fears of growing black numbers. The programme has been repeatedly attacked by detractors as a programme of social and political control. Yet, in spite of the hostile environment, black women's use of services has steadily increased. Using historical and anthropological evidence, this paper delineates the links between the social and political context of racial domination and individual fertility behaviour. It is argued that the quantitative success of the family planning programme is rooted in social and economic shifts conditioning reproductive authority and fertility decision-making. State policies of racial segregation and influx control, ethnic 'homeland' politics, and labour migration of men transformed opportunities and constraints for black women and men, and altered local and household expectations of childbearing. Women came to manage their own fertility as they increasingly found themselves in precarious social and economic circumstances.     

A theoretical framework of collective action for the evaluation of family planning programs

Typically, a family planning program seeks to alter individuals' fertility behavior. The very necessity for the existence of a family planning program presumes that individuals' fertility expectations and behavior are not yet consistent with the objectives of the program. Therefore, some individuals may choose not to cooperate. In this article I establish a theoretical framework for the evaluation of family planning programs by synthesizing the literature on the theory of collective action. Because of the characteristics of collective action — indivisibility and externality — noncooperation (free riding) is bound to occur. Faced with the problem of free riding, a good family planning program should ideally apply selective incentives, localize the costs and benefits, and invest in social capital. The relations among these three factors, cooperation, and fertility are also spelled out.An earlier version of this article was presented at the annual meeting of the American Sociological Association, Washington, DC, 11–15 August 1990.     

Temporal and spatial analysis of fertility decline in Taiwan

Abstract The conventional mode of evaluating the success of family planning programmes has frequently emphasized the activities of the programmes, rather than their ultimate effects. This paper examines the role of family planning programmes in inducing fertility decline in Taiwan. First it presents the secular trends of Taiwanese fertility changes, pointing out that family planning programmes began only after the birth rate had already shown a substantial decline. Secondly, it specifically evaluates the impact of family planning programmes in the Taichung areas, since its success has been widely proclaimed. Finally, it is stipulated that the dynamics of Taiwanese fertility changes may be related to declining infant mortality and accelerating educational development, and that these institutional effects, rather than the family planning programmes, should be credited with changes in fertility.     

The need for family planning

The purpose of this paper is to examine the evidence on the need for family planning. The available evidence on current levels of unmet need for contraceptives, fertility preferences, and the non-contraceptive benefits of family planning is reviewed. I argue that expansion of family planning programs is still needed. These programs provide couples with tools to reach their desired family size; can significantly impact maternal and child mortality by decreasing fertility and optimizing child spacing; and by decreasing fertility, slow population growth. It is therefore imperative to continue to expand the provision of family planning services.