Irrational international economic order is an obstacle

China is a socialist and developing country. As the most populous country in the world, China has a population now of over 1 billion, making up more than 1/5 of the total world population. However, China has a rather poor economic and educational foundation to start with. This is particularly true in the rural areas, where 80% of the total population lives. The problem of population increase and decrease in arable land has grown more acute. Hence, the Chinese Government has been promoting family planning since the 1970s. The Constitution of the People's Republic of China explicitly stipulates that "the state promotes family planning so that population growth may fit the plan for economic and social development." Thanks to the implementation of the basic state policy of family planning, the blind population growth is turning into a planned one. It is estimated by the fertility rate of the 1970s that 200 million births have been averted during the last 16 years. Thus, China has made contributions to the stability of the world's population. Were China to allow its population to grow blindly instead of having practiced family planning over the past 10 years, the world population would be substantially over 5 billion by the middle of this year.     

International migration: a global challenge

Trends in international migration are presented in this multiregional analysis. Seven of the world's wealthiest countries have about 33% of the world's migrant population, but under 16% of the total world population. Population growth in these countries is substantially affected by the migrant population. The migration challenge is external and internal. The external challenge is to balance the need for foreign labor and the commitment to human rights for those migrants seeking economic opportunity and political freedom. The internal challenge is to assure the social adjustment of immigrants and their children and to integrate them into society as citizens and future leaders. Why people cross national borders and how migration flows are likely to evolve over the next decades are explained. This report also presents some ways that countries can manage migration or reduce the pressures which force people to migrate. It is recommended that receiving nations control immigration by accelerating global economic growth and reducing wars and human rights violations. This report examines the impact of immigration on international trade, aid, and direct intervention policies. Although migration is one of the most important international economic issues, it is not coordinated by an international group. The European experience indicates that it is not easy to secure international cooperation on issues that affect national sovereignty. It is suggested that countries desiring control of their borders should remember that most people never cross national borders to live or work in another country, that 50% of the world's migrants move among developing countries, and that countries can shift from being emigration to immigration countries. The author suggests that sustained reductions in migration pressure are a better alternative than the "quick fixes" that may invite the very much feared mass and unpredictable movements.     

World Population Day '93 observed

President Abdur Rahman Biswas inaugurated the World Population Day '93 at the Osmani Memorial Hall in Dhaka, Bangladesh, on July 11. He stressed the importance of reducing the national population growth rate from 2.03% in 1923 to 1.82% by the 1995. The event was organized jointly by the Ministry of Health and Family Welfare, the Directorate of Family Planning, and the United Nations Population fund (UNFPA). The president expressed his deep concern over the population growth rates in developing countries, which are much higher than resources. He noted with satisfaction that 40% of the eligible couples in the country practice family planning (FP) and expressed hope that this could be raised to 50% by 1995. If the program becomes successful, ideal families would consist of two children by 2005. He later presented prizes and certificates to field workers, ulemas, traditional birth attendants, FP depot holders, and the workers of nongovernmental organizations for their commendable services in Fp and maternal-child health services. The Health and Family Welfare minister in his speech warned that if the current population growth is not checked, the consequences would be disastrous, which could be averted by adopting new strategies. The deputy minister for Health and Family Welfare illustrated the threat of population escalation and recounted some of the recent government control measures. The secretary, Ministry of Health Family Welfare, said that at the present rate of growth the Bangladeshi population would double in 34 years. The director general, Directorate of Family Planning, said that the FP program has become accountable with a system of incentives and disincentives. Earlier, the UNFPA country director in his speech remarked that it was crucial for the entire world to solve the population problem. In the morning, in the main cities, hundreds of people involved in national FP activities paraded to demonstrate the social legitimacy of the Bangladeshi Fp program.     

Strongly pressed by the task of population control

Today, the world population grows at an annual rate of over 80 million. The activities of "the Day of the 5 Billion" sponsored by the United Nations sounds alarm to the world: It is an emerging task to strictly control human reproduction. China, being a developing country, knows only too well the difficulties that over-rapid population growth brings upon economic and social development. Population control is a pressing task. China would like to make the nation prosperous by quadrupling the gross national product (GNP) to US$800 or US$1000 per capita, thus raising the people's living standard to the level of being well-off at the end of the century. The GNP would be quadrupled again to US$4000 per capita with the standard of living raised by the mid-21st century. In order to realize strategic goals, China must strive to control the total population of China at about 1.2 billion at the turn of the century, leaving a better population structure for the next century. At present, China has a population of 1.057 billion and is faced with a new baby boom. It is hoped that under the leadership of the Party's Central Committee and the State Council, governments at all levels, and the people of all nationalities will do a better job in population control by fulfilling the population plan for this year so as to lay down a good foundation for enforcing the plan during the 7th 5-year plan. Meanwhile, China will continue to make new contributions to the stabilization of the world's population together with the UNFPA and other international bodies and friendly countries who support China's population control policy.     

The evaluation of China's population policy]

China's population policy has had tremendous effects on the reduction of fertility. The impact of the population policy is manifested in the following aspects. 1) Reducing the size of the total population by 200 million in 17 years. If the population growth rate had remained at its 1970 level of 2.6/1000, the total population would have been 1.28 billion in 1987. 2) The implementation of the population policy accelerated the process of demographic transition. The mortality decline which began in the early 1950s initiated the demographic transition. The Fertility decline began after the birth control policy was implemented and shifted the transition to a low population growth stage even before the socioeconomic conditions which are considered to be the determinants of fertility decline appeared. The fertility decline, in turn, promoted the socioeconomic development of the country. 3) Solving the problem of food; feeding 21.6% of the world's population on 7.1% of the world's farm land is no easy task. The success of population control, no doubt, played an important role in lowering the population growth rate so that the growth of food production could keep pace with the needs of the population. 4) A decline in the dependency ratio is a favorable condition to socioeconomic development. China's dependency ratio of 59.7 is among the lowest in developing countries and is close to the level in developed countries. Therefore, more production output can be used in investment rather than consumption. 5) The fertility decline facilitated a balanced economic growth. The ratio of population growth as compared to the growth of major economic indicators should be considered an important issue in maintaining macroeconomic control. The population policy made it possible for economic growth to surpass population growth.     

Advocating "one couple with one child" being an optimal choice]

Zero population growth within the next 5 years in China would be reached only if many couples were not allowed to have their own child. On the other hand, if every couple were allowed to have 2 children China's population would reach 1500 million within the next 50 years. It seems advisable to advocate the "1 couple 1 child" idea; couples will have to keep in mind both the national interest and the communist ideology; social welfare to assure good living conditions for the old people will relieve the worries of parents with 1 child only. Most people are willing to follow this decision made by the Communist Party; many people declare their willingness to stick by this rule during their wedding ceremony; many couples send back their permit to have a second child, and many women choose abortion when pregnant with a second permitted pregnancy. By the end of 1979 the proportion of "1 couple 1 child" couples was 90% in many large cities; people realize that the practice of "1 couple 1 child" is the best assurance for the future of the country and of their children. This policy will not result in aging of the population, lack of manpower and shortage of soldiers; even if birth rate were 1% in 1985 the proportion of older people for the next 25 years will still be lower than that in European countries. The problem of aging of the population will not occur in this century, and population policies can always be adjusted when needed. Today's problem is to control population through the "1 couple 1 child" policy, even if it may result in many lonely old people, which is a lesser problem than too many people. Even if China has reduced its population growth by 10 million births each year from 1970 to 1979, the necessity to control population growth is still present, in the interest of the country and economic development.     

The Marxist outlook on population]

Marxist population theory and world population are discussed. From his study of capitalist population theory Marx concluded, "In capitalist reproduction, poverty produces population," thus rejecting Malthusian population determinism theory and developing economic determinism. According to UN statistics, world population has stabilized since the middle of this century after having doubled every hundred years for the last 300; population in the developed countries showed a positive decrease and average net population growth of the developing countries also decreased. The premise of this paper is that population grows according to social economy development. During the last several hundred years, world wealth increased much faster than population; in the last 200 years alone, the population has increased fivefold, but wealth fortyfold. In addition, world population analysis reveals an inverse relationship between wealth and population in the developed and developing countries: the poorer the country, the greater the population. From this perspective, the study of population must begin with surplus labor. Accumulation of surplus production is the foundation of continuous social development and the basis for population growth. The major difference in methods between capitalist countries and China is that the capitalist-planned fertility affects the individual family while Chinese-planned fertility has the whole nation in mind. Human fertility is determined by the economic system. Private ownership determines the private nature of fertility and public ownership determines the public nature of fertility. Thus population development is determined by the accumulation of social wealth.     

论人口控制政策对突破低水平均衡陷阱的促进作用

当今世界主题是和平与发展,因此经济发展成为多数国家政府政策的中心。目前多数发展中国家实施了人口控制政策,这有利于减缓世界人口剧增的趋势。但是这是否有利于发展中国家的经济发展呢?文章结合一定前提,通过定性探讨纳尔逊低水平均衡理论在人口非自然增长情况下的具体体现,得出了结论:发展中国家实施人口控制政策能够降低突破低水平均衡陷阱的机会成本,有助于加快走出低水平均衡陷阱困境的状态;长期实施过紧的人口控制政策不利于国家经济的可持续发展;人口控制政策的松绑是一个渐进式过程。     

The population and economic issues in West Asia after WW II]

Using statistical data, this report analyzes population and economic issues in West Asia after World War II. The high rate of development as witnessed in West Asian countries after their gaining of political independence following World War II was accompained by an accelerated population growth. This population growth spead unevenly among different areas. Based on surveys of 17 countries in West Asia, the socioeconomic development and rapid rate of population growth have largely affected the population age, sex, urban and rural residential, and economic sector employment structures. With the help of indicators and mathematical methods to plot population development, these countries can be divided into 3 categories based on population development features. The semiindustrial countries demonstrate a gradually slowing population growth rate, most of these countries having experienced a peak period in the growth rate during the time of population transition. The agricultural countries show a natural population growth rate which is generally considered low. The 3rd category, the oil-producing countries, are currently experiencing a peak in population growth. In general, the popuation growth rate has dramatically accelerated in West Asia since World War II. Between 1950-1960 this rate was 2.58%; between 1960-1970, 2.75%; and between 1970-1980, 2.92%. This rate shows an increase of 6.6% between 1950-1960 and 6.2% between 1960-1970. It surpasses the average world population growth rate and most of the developing country growth rates. It has been augmented by post-World War II economic and social developments.     

The population situation and its relation to the economy in Turkey]

In southwest Asia, Turkey is a leading nation in collecting complete data on its population through the use of a modern census. Based on available information, the development of Turkey's population can be summarized as follows: 1) in the last 20 years, Turkey's population increase rate has been 2% annually, very high by world standards; 2) the average age is young, and the population's burden coefficient is above 80%; and 3) the geographical distribution of the population is uneven. The population density in central, eastern, and southeastern parts of the country is low, while the coastal provinces near the Black Sea, Mediterranean Sea, and Aegean Sea have a high population density. In the last 50 years, the political situation in Turkey has remained stable. The national economy has developed rapidly, and the infant mortality rate has declined as a result of advancements in medicine and health care. Since Turkey is an Islamic country, birth control and abortion are not popular. The traditional early marriage for women and high illiteracy rate among women have contributed to a rapid population growth. In the past 20 years, however, the national economy has been overburdened by a rapid population growth. Problems of unemployment, a housing shortage in cities, inadequate public health facilities, a shortage of schools, a decline in farm land and inadequate food supplies have become increasingly obvious. Economically speaking, Turkey is much better than most developing nations. With its current foundation and rich natural resources, the country needs only to reduce the natural population increase rate slightly in order to achieve a balanced economic development.     

Population,Development and Global Warming: Averting the Tragedy of the Climate Commons

Carbon emissions from fossil fuel use and other human activity are predicted to cause a significant warming of the global climate, according to a growing consensus of scientists. Global warming would have substantial negative effects on the world environment and economy. Human population and economic growth continue to drive both energy use and carbon emissions. While the developed countries are the largest source of present and past emissions, developing countries are rapidly catching up. China will probably surpass the United States as the largest carbon emitter early in the next century. The global warming treaty signed in Rio in 1992 relies entirely on voluntary emission caps for developed countries and has had little or no apparent effect on emissions. Much stronger steps must be taken to avoid or lessen potential climate change. A globally determined but nationally imposed carbon tax should be adopted to internalize the future costs of carbon emissions into the present cost of fossil fuel and other carbon sources. This would allow the maximum use of free market forces and individual choice to determine how carbon emission reductions are achieved. In addition, national emission caps for all countries should be established. International trade mechanisms can be used to support universal implementation of these measures. Where possible, global warming policy should include strong but equitable incentives for sustainable development and population stabilization, important goals in themselves regardless of the extent of future climate change.     

World population growth and the food supply]

The general trend in the last several hundred years has been that the speed of growth in the food supply exceeds the speed of the population growth. For the time being, 2 major problems still exist. The 1st problem is that food production is still influenced by natural conditions. For example, abnormal weather conditions may cause regional food shortages. The 2nd problem is the imbalance of food consumption by the world population. This phenomenon exists between different social classes as well as between developed and developing countries. According to statistics released by the World Bank, 1 billion suffer from malnutrition today and most of them are in developing countries. In developed countries, about half of their increase in the food supply is for feed grains, and those countries follow the policy of reducing farm land for the purpose of maintaing stabl e grain prices. Up to the present time, grain prices have been unstable, and this has become a rather heavy economic burden for numerous developing countries. Many developing countries are trying to increase grain production by increasing their arable land and promoting their cultivating techniques. However, these countries are facing the problems of finding and adequate water supply, fertilizer, and pesticides. In addition, a rapid population growth in these countries has offset their endeavors in agriculture. In recent years, these counties have realized the necessity of birth control. The world population growth rate has decreased from 2% to about 1.7% in 1981. Birth control and an increase in the food supply will bring new hope to the world's problems of overpopulation and food supply.     

Urban Growth in Developing Countries: A Review of Projections and Predictions

Comparison of the United Nations' earliest and most recent projections to the year 2000 suggests that urban and city growth in developing regions has occurred much more slowly than was anticipated as recently as 1980. A modified “urban population explosion” in developing countries since the 1970s conforms to explanatory models of urban growth developed by economists around 1980. Trends in productivity and terms of trade, in particular, have been highly favorable to agriculture as compared to manufacturing, presumably slowing migration to urban centers. Increases in national population growth rates have produced less than commensurate increases in rates of city growth, further supporting an economic and migration-related explanation for unexpectedly slow recent urban growth. Despite the efforts of the United Nations to maintain reliable statistics on urban and city populations, urban population projections should be interpreted with caution because of inadequacies of the data on which they are based. Moreover, current projections that virtually all world population growth in the future will occur in urban areas of developing countries may be misconstrued, if the forces that have retarded urban growth in recent years persist.     

A worldwide view of population trends

The UN Population Commission held its 20th session in New York from 29 January to 9 February, with an agenda that included reviews of UN action to implement recommendations of the 1974 World Population Conference; of progress in population work by the UN Population Division; and of the medium-term plan, 1980-1983. Of a total of 29 countries and 22 organizations participating, 5 countries were Asian--India, Indonesia, Japan, the Philippines, and Thailand. The report on monitoring of trends and policies was the most detailed examination of the global demographic situation yet available, and revealed the following facts: 1) 80% of the population of the developing countries are in countries which the governments have considered that a slower rate of population growth would be desirable; 2) among developed countries, nearly all governments preferred their rate of population growth to remain as high as or become higher than at present; 3) among the developing countries, 6 of the 8 nations having a population greater than 50 million wished to reduce their rate of growth; 4) 80% of all countries considered the rate of population growth the be of basic importance for development; and 5) with respect to mortality, about 75% of all governments of developing countries considered the prevailing level to be unsatisfactory; while among developed countries the same proportion considered the prevailing level to be acceptable. As a result of its deliberations on the report, the Population Commission endorsed the Population Information Network concept of a decentralized network for the coordination of regional, national, and nongovernmental population information activities.     

Future Trends In World Population Growth

Because world population growth is marked by differing trends in the more developed and developing regions, the successful solution of future social and demographic problems will depend, in all likelihood, on whether population growth is considered in isolation or as a problem which is inextricably interwoven with other leading features of social and economic development.Both total population growth and changing age structure produce new economic and social problems, and within both the more developed and the developing regions, there are sub-areas in various stages of development. First, together with the total estimated increase in working-age population, there will be substantial differences in age structure. Although the proportion of world population of dependent age is expected to go down, up to 1980its level will be higher than in 1960, owingto an upward tendency in developing regions, where the "heavy youth dependency" is so extraordinarily high that even in 1980 there will be about ten children to every old person, and at the end of the century, more than seven. It is estimated that in the more developed regions there will be twenty-five to every one-hundred old persons in 1980, and twenty-two in the year 2000. This shows that heavy old-age dependency will have arisen in these regions. Second, the dependency ratio will probably grow, moreover, as a consequence of the degree of economic activity and variation. Although there will bea decrease in the proportion of dependent children, these will still constitute over one-half of the dependents in all areas. These forecasts seem to indicate that the changing structure of dependency and the increase in its total volume may be expected to create problems, particularly in the developing regions. Third, working life tends to become longer as a result of declining mortality, and this, combined with rising labor-force replacement levels, will result in an increased total labor supply.While such an expansion of world population obviously emphasizes the quantitative aspect of population problems, structural and qualitative aspects seem to be of equal importance. But these aspects are largely overshadowed by the growth problem, for growing numbers of people have more and more needs: the inflow of people into schools, into the labor market, and into towns and cities will be apparently unprecedented.In recent years circumstances have not favored the development of conditions needed for rapid change in reproductive behavior in the developing regions. The mobilization of resources and the adaption of different types of society in view of the future growth of total population-with emphasis on the less-developed regions-will be one of the most important challenges to mankind's ability to meet its own needs.The main value of the calculations of various characteristics of future population growth discussed in this paper is to show "in the light of contemporary information" future trends and some relationships of world population of world population growth to economic and social development.     

Does rapid economic growth improve the human lot? Some empirical evidence

Politicians and decision-makers in both developed and developing countries have sought to maximize economic growth on the basis of the belief that this leads to advances in the quality of life. This paper seeks to test whether this belief is well-founded. An application of the Diffusion Index to time-series data collected from a rapidly growing, low income country demonstrates that while higher national income makes for greater welfare the rate of welfare enhancement is almost independent of the rate of national income growth. On the basis of these findings, it is argued that the Gross National Product by itself may not be used as a reliable measure of human welfare. Finally, this paper suggests that in order to provide the maximum quality of life for the members of a given society, its national policy should be based on a much broader conception of welfare than is currently implied by the idea of GNP growthmanship.     

Speech at the UN International Conference on Population,Mexico City,August, 1984

In seeking a solution to its population problem, China, as a developing socialist country, has been making unremitting efforts to develop economy while controlling the rapid growth. The objective is to control rapid population growth so that population growth may be in keeping with socioeconomic development and commensurate with utilization of natural resources and environmental protection. In the past decade, and particularly since 1979, China has made much progress in developing economy and gained remarkable successes in controlling population growth. The natural population growth rate dropped to 1.15% in 1983, from 2.089% in 1973. Living standards have improved with a gradual annual increase of per capita income. All this proves that the policy of promoting family planning to control population growth along with planned economic development is correct. In China family planning is a basic state policy. The government has advocated the practice of "1 couple, 1 child" since 1979. This does not mean that 1 couple could have 1 child only in every case. The government provides guidance for the implementation of family planning programs in the light of specific conditions such as economic developments, cultural background, population structure, and the wishes of the people in different localities. The requirements are more flexible in rural than in urban areas and more so among the people of national minorities than among the people of the Han Nationality. In rural areas, couples who have actual difficulties and want to have 2 children may have a 2nd birth with planned spacing. In carrying out its family planning program, China has consistently adhered to the principle of integrating state guidance with the masses' voluntariness. The government has always emphasized the importance of encouraging the people's own initiatives, through publicity and education, which is the key link in implementing the family planning program.     

世界主要国家人口与经济的发展状况分析

2000年世界人口已经达到60.5亿,80.38%集中在发展中国家,而据预测,到2025年,这一比例会进一步上升到84%,2050年上升到87%以上.世界人口的60%集中在10个人口在1亿以上的人口大国中.发展中国家人口的快速增长,已经或正在吞食着其经济发展的成果,使得人均收入水平难以提高.     

Prospects for sustainable development: The significance of population growth

There is nothing static about the notion of optimum population. For any given country, region or the world, the optimum population, or maximum acceptable population, depends on a host of related factors: aspirations of a material kind, the state of the environment, the ability of the economy to provide food, shelter, transport, services, consumer durables and other needs. Many countries, such as the U.K., while today enjoying a reasonable standard of living, may not in fact be living within their carrying capacities. The relation between population and development is a dynamic one. Where the trends established by past and current policies are potentially unsustainable, then there is the risk that population levels may compromise the prospects of maintaining living standards and attaining environmental objectives.This paper draws on the recent world modelGlobEcco, to explore the implications of alternative population growth rates for the future of both the industrialised and developing regions of the world. The model is based on ECCO (Evolution of Capital Creation—previously Carrying Capacity—Options): a new integrative procedure which can test out strategies, technologies and rates of population growth aimed at satisfying both economic and environmental aspirations over the long term.     

Prospects for international migration: Globalization and its discontents

The paper challenges the view that the late twentieth century is the ‘age of migration’. For developing countries, flows of out-migrants are small compared with population growth, although in developed countries the stock of immigrants increased in proportion to the total population between 1965 and 1990. Despite the importance of refugee movement, the main force for international migration is economic. Why do not more people migrate (internally and internationally) to take advantage of potential economic gains? For international migration, one deterrent is institutional barriers against uncontrolled immigration. Different interest groups stand to gain or lose from increased migration. The income-enhancing effects of unhindered international labour migration, measured jointly for sending and receiving countries and by extension globally, should be very large. Even partial liberalization of immigration to industrialized countries would serve developing countries well. In industrialized countries, however, there is concern about the effect of massive labour inflows on the ethnic, religious and cultural composition of the population and its social cohesion. In some countries, migration is leading to greater ethnic mingling; in others there is a recrudescence of nationalistic aspirations for independent statehood with ethnically homogeneous populations, or to preserve the advantages of economically successful subregions.