Six microcomputer programs for population projection: an evaluation

Microcomputer-based population projection software packages were evaluated to determine if all the programs would yield similar results if tested on the same set of data. These included the PROJ5 from Microcomputer Program for Demographic Analysis, converted for microcomputers by Westinghouse; the FIVFIV/SINSIN from The Population Council; the PROJPC-II, developed by Kenneth Hill for the World Bank; and CELADE, developed by Centro Latinamericano de Demographia (CELADE), a Spanish microcomputer version of the population projection program of the United Nations. These were all modified from mainframe programs. The DEMPROJ, developed by the RAPID2 project at the The Futures Group, and ESCAP/POP, developed by the Population Division of the U.N. Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP) were both specifically developed for microcomputers. A standard set of criteria covering hardware and software and requirements, methodology, projection results, and summary demographic indicators in the output are used in the evaluation. Table 1 gives hardware and software requirements. All the programs can be used on IBM or compatable micros. Table 2 gives data input requirements, which vary widely. All 6 programs use a cohort-component projection, although there is a wide variety in application of methodology. Programs and data sets produced similar results, and choice of a system should based on intended use. Appendices list programs and addresses for obtaining copies as well as other kinds of software available for demogrphic analysis and their sources.     

A review of the studies on fertility transition in China]

This article is a summary of papers and analysis in recent years on fertility transition and the association between fertility decline and socioeconomic development in China. These papers discuss the causes of fertility decline and the role of family planning programs in demographic transition. The major points are: 1. The demographic transition in China has the same characteristics as in the countries that have completed the transition. The transition had already started in the more developed areas or completed in a few large cities before family planning programs were implemented. 2. The role of family planning programs is to lead and to accelerate the demographic transition, which is the key idea of the "induced fertility transition". 3. The socioeconomic development and family planning programs worked together to affect the fertility decline, however socioeconomic development is the fundamental factor. Without the existence of the socioeconomic development, which included the changes in the function of family, traditional ideas on fertility, increased level of education, the status of women and social security system; the family planning program is not likely to make an impact.     

Minimal Household Units: A New Approach to the Analysis of Household Formation

In this paper a new method for the analysis of household formation and the composition of households is described. The components, or building blocks, which combine to form households are identified and these have been called ‘minimal household units’. The focus of the analysis is on whether a minimal household unit sets up as a separate household or, if not, with whom it is shared. An economic theory of household formation is outlined, and a probit model is used to guide the estimation of the effects of economic and demographic characteristics of the minimal household unit on the probability of being a separate household, economic factors, such as the unit's income, and other social and demographic characteristics of the unit's members are shown to have a significant influence on the probability of its being a separate household.     

The contemporary demography of indigenous Australians

Increased public policy focus on indigenous Australians over the past 30 years has resulted in a substantial expansion of demographic analysis over the same period. This paper reviews these efforts and summarizes the main topics, findings and debates. The accumulated evidence points to both demographic change and continuity. Change: in that mortality has declined; fertility levels have been much reduced; urbanization has burgeoned and population growth has entered a phase of rapid increase. Continuity: because mortality is still much higher than the Australian average; fertility remains at a level well above that reported for all women; most individuals still live away from major cities; and the estimation of overall numbers still hinges on a social construction of identity.     

An overview of demographic analysis as a method for evaluating census coverage in the United States

"Since the 1950 U.S. census, demographic methods based on the fundamental balancing equation of demography have played an important role in the evaluation of the census net undercount. Application of this set of methods, called demographic analysis, results in national estimates of the net undercount for age-race-sex groups. Although results of demographic analysis are readily available in Bureau of the Census publications, the procedures used to estimate each of the components of population change are less well-known. In this paper we review the historical foundation of demographic analysis, beginning with Coale's 1950 census evaluation project and concluding with the recent evaluation of the 1990 census. We examine each of the components of the method, how their estimation has changed over time, and how they were estimated for the 1990 census."     

Estimating Mortality Differences in Developed Countries From Survey Information on Maternal and Paternal Orphanhood

In general, the use of indirect methods is limited to developing countries. Developed countries are usually assumed to have no need to apply such methods because detailed demographic data exist. However, the potentialities of demographic analysis with direct methods are limited to the characteristics of available macro data on births, deaths, and migration. For instance, in many Western countries, official population statistics do not permit the estimation of mortality by socioeconomic status (SES) or migration background, or for estimating the relationship between parity and mortality. In order to overcome these shortcomings, I modify and extend the so-called orphanhood method for indirect estimation of adult mortality from survey information on maternal and paternal survival to allow its application to populations of developed countries. The method is demonstrated and tested with data from two independent Italian cross-sectional surveys by estimating overall and SES-specific life expectancy. The empirical applications reveal that the proposed method can be used successfully for estimating levels and trends of mortality differences in developed countries and thus offers new prospects for the analysis of mortality.     

The role of demographic data in the operation of public policy: a case study of the job training partnership act

To work at the state and local levels, the Job Training Partnership Act (JTPA) requires specific kinds of demographic data. Unemployment figures, poverty information, occupational supply and demand data, wage structure, and many other types of data are used in planning and operating JTPA programs, and in modifying the performance standards by which the programs are evaluated. The decennial census provides some key data and thus some significant types of information become less timely as the decade progresses. Furthermore, the framers of the Act had little or no knowledge of the forms in which data are collected and thus definitions given in the Act do not always agree with definitions used in the demographic data which are available. The policymakers for future government benefit programs could learn from this mistake: before writing legislation which is so heavily dependent on demographic data, they should ascertain what types of data are available or can be generated for use in the program.     

The Philippine population program: a stocktaking

Summarizes findings of the Special Committee to Review the Philippine Population Program, created by the Commission on Population to evaluate population related programs and recommend program directions for the future. The Committee conducted a 2 part study: an indepth review and analysis of existing policies and programs, evaluation of their effectiveness, and identification of organizational, statistical and policy or program related gaps and bottlenecks; and recommendations on policy and program thrusts for the next 5 years. Along with specific recommendations on program operations, service delivery, and research, the Committee made a number of important policy recommendations. Chief among these were a call for the development of a broader popultion policy, not focused only on growth but encompassing demographic, manpower, and welfare components; recognition of the need for the program to advocate an ideal family size and a desirable age for marriage; and redesign of the program on a broad scale to integrate it fully with national development plans.     

Comparative labor market performance of visaed and non-visaed migrants: Pacific islanders in Sydney

Using survey data for Tongan and Samoan migrants in Sydney the effects of visa restrictions on labor market performance of migrants are assessed. Univariate analysis suggests a positive association between unemployment and the unrestricted entry of Samoan step-migrants from New Zealand. A probit model of the determinants of unemployment is estimated with controls for human capital and demographic variables. While human capital endowments are important, visa restrictions do not have a significant effect on either group‘s employability. Implications for policy are discussed highlighting the complementarities between host country immigration policies and foreign aid programs. Received: 13 August 1997 / Accepted: 5 March 1998     

On the estimation of multidimensional demographic models with population registration data

In this paper the estimation of multidimensional demographic models is investigated in situations where population registration data are available. With this kind of aggregate data, estimation by traditional methods is not possible. We look at two versions of the multidimensional model: the constant intensities model and the linear integration model. Some logical inconsistencies in the derivation of the latter are discussed. In particular, we argue that the linear integration model is not compatible with a Markov process. A new algorithm for the estimation of the constant intensities model with population registration data is proposed. Some preliminary results on the mathematical and statistical properties of this method are given. The algorithm is applied to Dutch nuptiality data.     

Urban influences on farmland use in New York State

This article assesses the relationship between demographic change and structural adjustments in agriculture. A number of demographic and economic analyses have posited an inverse relationship between post-1950 exurban population growth and agricultural viability, especially in the Northeast Region of the USA. To test this hypothesis, a multivariate model of percent change in county land in farms over the period 1950–1987 is estimated, and the findings only partially support the population hypothesis. Estimation results indicate that the effect of core metropolitan status is significant, but that the effects of rural population change, rural nonfarm population change, and county population deconcentration are not. The analysis demonstrates that maintenance of land in farm use largely depends upon economic forces that are national and regional in scope, and almost exclusively outside the purview of state and local farmland protection programs.     

Strength of fertility motivation and contraceptive use in Nepal

The study's purpose was to test whether new survey questions on strength of fertility motivation, included in Nepal's 1986 Fertility and Family Planning Survey, enable improved prediction of current contraceptive use. Intent to use contraception in the future was also tested, over and above the effects of socioeconomic background. While controlling selected demographic and socioeconomic background characteristics of the respondents, the authors found the effect of the strength of fertility motivation on current contraceptive use to be substantial and highly significant statistically. Nevertheless, the background factors largely captured the effect of motivational strength on current use when motivational strength was deleted from the model, inasmuch as measures of global fit declined only slightly as a consequence of the deletion. These findings indicate that respondents' demographic and socioeconomic background characteristics affect motivational strength, so that motivational strength does not have a large independent effect on use. These results raise the question of whether strength of fertility motivation can be affected by educational efforts mounted by family planning programs to increase contraceptive use. The analysis shows that strength of motivation does have some independent effect on contraceptive use, and it is quite possible that this independent effect could be enhanced by educational programs operating independently of the socioeconomic characteristics of program recipients. Because the 1986 survey lacks relevant data, we have not been able to explore this possibility empirically.     

Coverage of the population in Census 2000: Results from Demographic Analysis

Since the 1960 Census, Demographic Analysis (DA) has been used by the Census Bureau to evaluate the coverage of the population. Administrative statistics on births, deaths, immigration and Medicare enrollments as well as estimates of legal emigration and net undocumented immigration are used to produce demographic analysis estimates of the population for the census date. These estimates are compared to the Census 2000 data to evaluate coverage in the census. The results are also compared to measures of undercount obtained from dual system estimation. The DA measures substantial reduction in net undercount in Census 2000 compared to 1990. The reductions occur among all demographic categories: all broad age groups, males and females, Blacks and Non-Blacks.     

Son preference and the demand for additional children in pakistan

This paper tries to take into account the sequential element in fertility decisions and continues an investigation originally begun by Namboodiri. We examine the extent to which the “desire to have additional children” can be explained by a variety of economic, sociological, and demographic variables. The probit maximum likelihood estimation procedure is utilized, and the analysis is based on cross-sectional data on 2,910 currently married women obtained from a national survey conducted in Pakistan in 1968–1969. The principal finding is the presence of a strong son preference both for the husband and for the wife.     

山东省人口红利的过程判断及其对经济增长作用研究

在人口转变过程中。由于出生率与死亡率下降初始时间与速度的不同步,后者先于前者发生。会形成一个“中间大,两头小”有利于经济发展的人口年龄结构,人口学家称这段时期为“人口机会窗口”或“人口红利（demo-graphic dividend）”。本文根据人口类型划分标准对山东省及其区域人口红利进行了过程判断,并通过计算劳动力对经济增长的贡献率即劳动贡献率来显示人口红利对经济增长的推动作用,最后提出了充分实现山东省人口红利的途径。     

Demographic behavior and the welfare state

The evaluation of the effects of tax and transfer programs on demographic behavior raises a number of difficult econometric issues related to identification of program effects. The main issue concerns whether there exists the true exogenous variation in program parameters necessary to estimate the effects of the program on behavior. This paper provides a discussion of the types of exogenous variation that are commonly available as well as the pitfalls in using potentially endogenous sources of variation. The general points are illustrated with an example drawn from the demographic literature in the United States. The paper concludes with a recommendation that the source of exogenous variation in program parameters be carefully examined in any study undertaken.Presented at the Second Annual Conference of the European Society for Population Economics, University of Mannheim, June 23–25, 1988. The author would like to thank the participants of the conference for their comments and, in particular, Bjorn Gustafsson, Siv Gustafsson, and Denis Kessler for their information on Swedish and French tax and transfer programs. Joseph Hotz also provided useful comments.     

Progress in demographic methodology

This paper examines developments in demographic methodology during the past decade or so. It focuses on methodological advances in the analysis of mortality of infants and young children, of adults, and on problems of mortality estimation in small populations. The other major areas reviewed here are related to the study of birth intervals, parity progression, proximate determinants of fertility, and the demography of the family. Concluding remarks relate the methodological issues to the information explosion in demography.     

Racial and Ethnic Differences in Birthweight: The Role of Income and Financial Assistance

This paper attempts to explain the differences in birthweight observed between blacks, white Anglos, Chicanos, and other racial and ethnic groups. The analysis focuses on the role of income and financial assistance from relatives and public programs. Using data from the NLS Youth Panel, I construct a causal model of birthweight containing exogenous social and demographic risk factors and intervening proximate determinants of birthweight. A substantial part of the gap in birthweight between white Anglos and other ethnic groups (especially blacks) can be explained by the unfavorable socioeconomic and demographic characteristics of the latter. On the other hand, blacks and other minorities smoke less and have other favorable proximate characteristics that depress differences in birthweight. When these proximate determinants are controlled, large ethic differences in birthweight remain unexplained by income and other sociodemographic factors.     

The use of hypothetical cohorts in estimating demographic parameters under conditions of changing fertility and mortality

The indirect methods of demographic estimation available to date are often inadequate to estimate levels in the presence of trends. The use of measures relative to hypothetical cohorts to minimize the effectsoftrends and estimate period levels is described. Procedures allowing the estimation of intersurvey levels of fertility, child mortality and adult mortality are illustrated using data from Thailand and Peru.     

Demographic change and response: Social context and the practice of birth control in six countries

This paper expands on Kingsley Davis’s demographic thesis of change and response. Specifically, we consider the social context that accounts for the primacy of particular birth control methods that bring about fertility change during specific time periods. We examine the relevance of state policy (including national family planning programs), the international population establishment, the medical profession, organized religion, and women’s groups using case studies from Japan, Russia, Puerto Rico, China, India, and Cameroon. Some of these countries are undergoing the second demographic transition, others the first. Despite variations in context, heavy reliance on sterilization and/or, abortion as a means of birth control is a major response in most of these countries. The key roles of the medical profession and state policy are discussed, along with the general lack of influence of religion and of women’s groups in these countries.