基于GIS和SPSS的聊城市人口压力空间格局研究

根据影响聊城市人口压力的内在矛盾和外在因素。确定了聊城市人口压力评价指标体系,采用主成分分析法计算了人口压力指数,再通过聚类分析等方法,定量分析了1998—2007年聊城市人口压力的空间格局。借助Ar-cGIS9．2软件采用格网法对聊城市人口压力空间格局进行制图显示。结果表明。1998—2007年。聊城市人口压力沿东北一西南轴线呈现明显的地域特征,在空间上出现聚集效应,高唐县人1：1压力指数在_0．14-0．22之间,人口压力适中,人口与社会经济、资源环境发展协调;东昌府区、临清市、茌平县和东阿县人口压力指数在0．1．0．99之间。人口压力较小。人口承栽力较强;冠县、阳谷县和莘县人口压力指数在0．79—1．68之间,人口压力较大,人口与社会经济、资源环境等发展不协调。这种空间分布格局与各地区的有形资源和无形资源都有关系。无须资源的影响比重越来越大。     

我国老年人健康自评影响因素分析

健康自评是研究对象对自身健康的主观感受,是调查中经常运用的变量。健康自评能够反映健康状态的主观和客观两个方面,因此健康自评可以作为评价老年人健康状况的一个重要指标。采用2002年全国老年调查数据,做不同老年人群体的健康自评的差异性分析并进一步探究影响因素。旨在回答我国老年人健康自评的影响因素,对老年人自身和政策制定者提供参考依据。健康的生活方式对健康自评有积极的影响,身体的健康和健康自评有很强的相关性,老年人的社会人口学特征对健康自评影响十分有限。     

The Use of Social Surveys to Measure Drought and the Impact of Drought

Although the term drought is widely used, defining it is conceptually and technically difficult and there is no generally accepted definition. This article uses data from an Australian social survey of people living in agricultural areas to test the validity of using general social surveys to ask respondents whether they are living in an area that is drought affected. Strong evidence is found that the survey based self-report measure of drought is both internally consistent and correlated with the standard Australian meteorological (rainfall deficit) measures of drought and thus provides a valid measure of whether individuals are experiencing the drought. The relationship between self-report drought and the standard meteorological measure of drought and financial hardship and changes in financial position is estimated. While a negative association between drought and financial position is found for both measures, the relationship is stronger for the self-report than the meteorological definition. The self-report measure is more closely linked to the economic, social and community impacts of low rainfall and provides greater flexibility in the geographic area over which drought is measured—thus survey data about drought allows respondents to define the area in way which is meteorologically, topographically or agriculturally meaningful.     

发挥计生优势 推进电子健康

健康是关系人民福祉与国家可持续发展的一个重要公共议题,也是中国人口发展战略的一个重要组成部分。健康永远是人的最基本需求之一,也是人实现全面发展的重要基础。全民健康水平在很大程度上决定着一个国家的人口素质,它既是人口发展的重要基础,也是一个国家经济社会政治文化发展的重要测度指标之一。健康不仅仅是生理问题,也是心理问题、精神问题、情感问题、生活习惯与行为方式问题;健康也不仅仅是个体问题,也是家庭问题、代际问题、社会问题;健康更不仅仅是单纯的医学问题,它与人口发展、社会管理、技术进步、     

中国省际人口流动的空间结构特征研究

人口流动作为重要的社会经济现象,是工业化和城镇化发展的必然结果,人口流动对区域经济发展会产生重要影响,准确把握我国省际人口流动的空间结构特征,深入开展省际人口流动研究具有重要的理论与现实意义。基于此,本文利用2015年全国流动人口动态监测数据,采用社会网络分析方法,具体研究中国省际人口流动的空间结构特征。结果表明省际人口流动网络整体密度不大,省际人口流动联系的紧密性相对较低,省际人口流动多以单向流入或流出为主,双向的互动频率相对较差;省际人口流动网络中存在人口净流出地区、人口流动相对平衡地区、人口净流入地区三种类型,人口净流出地区多以经济相对落后的地区为主,人口净流入地区多以经济发达地区为主,人口流动相对平衡地区在经济落后地区表现较为明显;不存在具有绝对优势并对省际人口流动起到绝对的控制作用的省份;省际人口流动网络存在明显的群体性特点,人口流动以区域内流动为主,跨区域流动倾向初显,人口流动逐渐突破空间限制,仍需要各级政府制定相应的促进人口流动的有效政策,确保人口自由流动,进而实现资源的优化配置,促进区域经济一体化的发展。     

Gibrat’s law for countries

A reassessment of Gibrat’s Law in the context of country size is carried out in this paper. In addition, how similarly population is distributed in cities and countries is analyzed from a temporal perspective. Although evidence of Gibrat’s Law is found, it is weaker than that previously established in Rose (J Money Credit Bank 38(8):2225–2246, 2006). This is due to the methodology applied and is especially appreciable in very small countries. Nonetheless, we observe that the population growth process in countries is similar to that of cities. As a result, the similarities between how the population is distributed in these two geographical categories have increased over time.     

长春市现代服务业现状及发展趋势分析

现代服务业的发达程度是社会现代化水平的重要标志。从近年数据看,长春市现代服务业总量增长1倍;现代服务业和传统服务业比重平分秋色。现代服务业占GDP比重保持在1/5上下浮动。按照笔者预测,长春市未来现代服务业增加值占服务业增加值的比重将持续下降。未来长春市现代服务业比重最大的4个行业的发展态势为:最被看好的是教育业,其发展将持续上升;最有发展潜力的是租赁和商务服务业;变化中发展的是金融业,虽然其发展态势有降有升,但最近呈上升态势;最让人担忧的是信息传输、计算机服务、软件业,下降的速度过快。     

英国的社区照顾及启示

社区照顾是英国社会福利发展进程中出现的社会化养老服务方式,主要由＂由社区照顾＂和＂社区内照顾＂两部分构成,经过几十年的变迁,英国的社区照顾愈加成熟,具有鲜明的特点,我国老人的养老可从中获得有益的启示。     

A Probabilistic Perspective on Re-Identifiability

A quasi-identifier is a set of attributes that can be used to re-identify entries in anonymized data sets. A group of individuals is considered about whom quasi-identifying numerical information is disclosed such as date of birth, age, weight, and height. The fraction of individuals is determined whose information is unique in that group and hence is identifiable unambiguously. Nonuniformity can be captured well by a single number, the Kullback-Leibler distance. For example sets of real microdata, given approximations based on Kullback-Leibler distances are accurate. Second, the effect of disclosing more specific or less specific information is analyzed experimentally. Third, the effect of correlation between numerical attributes is measured. A formula gives the re-identifiability level. The approximations are validated using publicly available demographic data sets.     

A preliminary analysis of the present situation of China's population]

The national census conducted in 1982 provides the most up-to-date statistics on China's population. The following are some characteristics of China's population at the present time, based upon preliminary analysis: (1) The total population figure has passed the one billion mark, but the growth rate has been declining since the 1970s; (2) The population density is higher than other countries of the world, but the distribution is uneven. The percentage of the city population is low, and changes in urban and rural distribution are slow; (3) The population growth of ethnic minorities is higher than average, and the ratio of the minority population is increasing; (4) There are slightly more men than women-an impact of traditional society; (5) The age structure of the population is still young, but sharp change is in the process of developing; (6) Fertility has declined on a large scale, but is still far from reaching the goal of population control; (7) The death rate has remained at a low level for a long period of time, and average lifespan is gradually becoming prolonged; (8) The marital status has remained stable, and people normally marry between the ages of 20 and 30; (9) The cultural and educational level of the general public has been promoted, but still not enough for modernized construction; (10) The employment rate is high, and most of the working population is employed with the departments of material production. The percentage of employment of a service nature is small. A high percentage of the working population is related to agriculture, fishing, and animal husbandry. The precentage of workers in manual labor is much higher than that for mental labor.     

养老金新政:新旧养老保险政策的替代率测算

本论文通过模型在一定的精算假设下作了比较分析,发现在同样的精算假设下测算,改革之前的养老金替代率要明显高于原来预计的目标替代率,其主要原因在于在个人账户空账的条件下,个人账户假设的利息率是比较低的,而做实个人账户之后,资本市场可以获得合理的利息回报,个人账户积累的效率提高,加上基础养老金比例增加,是改革后养老金目标替代率没有下降的关键。     

社会性别视角中的出生性别比偏高问题

目前,我国出生性别比偏高已成为不争的事实。在影响我国出生性别比偏高的诸因素中,社会性别差异是一个重要因素。它通过男性选择性生育表现为出生性别比偏高,其后果是女孩的生存权和发展权受到损害,并进一步弱化妇女的地位。     

A brief analysis on the survey of the present population situation of the Miao nationality in Sichuan Province]

The Miao nationality is a minority in China which has a total population of 5.03 million. In Sichuan Province, the Miao population is about 130,000, representing approximately 4% of the entire Miao population. In 1981 and 1982, surveys were conducted to investigate the Miao population. Results from these surves are summarized as follows: (1) The age structure of the Miao nationality is young, and the percentage of young people is high. A large number of children who were born in the 1960s and 1970s have now reached the age for marriage, a new high point of births will be created soon, and family planning will become a very urgent problem; (2) Fertility is very high, about 5.05 children for each married woman; (3) Marriage between close relatives is rather popular and this custom is harmful to the next generation, and the rate for abnormal babies and deaths is rising; (4) A popular belief which exits among the Miao people is that more children represent good fortune for the parents. It is quite obvious that urgent work is needed in order to develop family planning in the areas inhabited by the Miao people. Both the quantity and quality of the Miao nationality should be adjusted in order to cope with a changing world.     

Books and publications received

In this paper the hypothesis put forward by J. C. Caldwell in a number of recent articles, including one in this journal is tested, that there are social and economic increasing returns to scale to family size. Using two village samples of household data collected in Bangladesh in 1977, it is shown that there is a statistically significant inverse correlation between adjusted consumption of rice per head and family size. This result holds true when age and size of landholding are taken into account. From this, it is concluded that the hypothesis is not empirically supported by the data from Bangladesh. This result is partially explained by the extreme poverty of the region and the fact that women are exploited in Bangladesh society.     

Carrying Capacity Reconsidered

The concept of carrying capacity has gained broad currency, although some population ecologists are dubious about its value. This paper assesses the utility of the concept and develops an alternative understanding of population growth. First, carrying capacity is viewed in historical perspective and evidence that is supposed to support it is criticized. Then the underlying assumptions upon which it rests are reexamined. Limits to growth are seen to be both multiple and variable. The mechanism that is supposed to regulate population is critically reviewed. And the assumptions of balance in nature and equilibrium in biotic communities are reevaluated. These assumptions having been found wanting, population growth is reassessed in relation to environmental variability. The strategies by which different species cope with variability are described, and the windfall effect, which causes some populations to grow rapidly and then collapse, is identified. Finally, it is suggested that carrying capacity may be a self-validating belief and that is has limited relevance to human population growth, which is better understood in other ways.     

A Gompertz fit that fits: Applications to canadian fertility patterns

In this paper an attempt is made to refine the method of fitting the Gompertz function to the cumulative fertility rates by using iterative techniques. The method is tested with the historical data series for the Canadian population. The demographic implication of the parameters of the Gompertz function as fitted to the fertility distribution is examined, and the usefulness of the method in projecting future fertility trends is studied. The Makeham function is also fitted to the fertility distribution by the same iterative technique, and the relative efficiency of this function is compared with that of the Gompertz.     

Values Reflected in the Human Development Index

The Human Development Index (HDI) implicitly defines ``human development' and ranks countries accordingly. To elucidate the HDI's meaning of ``human development,' the paper examines the sensitivity of the HDI to changes in its components, namely social indicators of education, longevity and standard of living. The HDI is next compared with two alternatives, the Life Quality Index (LQI) and a Time Allocation Index (TAI) developed in this paper from the HDI's components. Also considered is the likely uncertainly in the HDI and what it means for HDI rankings.It is concluded that the HDI's weighting of the gross domestic product is in good agreement with peoples' preferences as revealed in the LQI and the TAI; further, that the HDI places many times greater weight on education than is indicated by peoples' allocation of time in developed countries. Literacy is accorded very high weight in the HDI, but its measure is unreliable. The HDI ranking of highly developed nations is so close and so uncertain that it is meaningless.     

Zero growth of the population of the United States

It is sometimes said that there is no population problem in the United States because the U.S. fertility rate is approximately at the replacement level of 2.1 children per woman. However the population of the United States increased in 1992 by approximately three million people. There are two major causes of continued population growth even when fertility is approximately at the replacement level. One is population momentum; the other is immigration. This paper examines what must be done if we want to achieve zero growth of the population of the United States immediately, without the long delays caused by population momentum.     

Studying Marx's discussion on the position and role of population in social and economic development]

According to Marx and Engels, population is the premise for material life. The difference between man and animal is that man, in order to exist, must have a means of subsistence; thus, his 1st historical activity is to produce these means while at the same time reproduce himself. The function and position of population is to serve as the basis and primary force for all social productive activities. Population further serves as the basis for its own material production. All human relationships and functions, regardless of form or situation, influence material production. Actually, population itself is a kind of productive force as well as consuming force. Population produces material goods which ultimately are used by the population. Hence population is the unification of production and consumption. That is, population's activities consist of production and consumption. According to Marx, accumulated capital regulates population development; at the same time, population development influences the accumulation of capital. Population growth must be the basis for the realization of accumulated capital. In addition, population structure influences the accumulation of capital. Within a single nation, the larger the laboring class, the more prosperous is the country. Among countries, however, this principle is not necessarily so. Marx also believed that raising production rates is the basic way to increase accumulated capital. And, a necessary condition for raising production rates is to raise the quality of population.