The uncertain connection: free trade and rural Mexican migration to the United States

"Will a North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) decrease Mexican migration to the United States, as the U.S. and Mexican governments assert, or increase migration beyond the movement that would otherwise occur, as NAFTA critics allege? This article argues that it is easy to overestimate the additional emigration from rural Mexico owing to NAFTA-related economic restructuring in Mexico. The available evidence suggests four major reasons why Mexican emigration may not increase massively, despite extensive restructuring and displacement from traditional agriculture....NAFTA-related economic displacement in Mexico may yield an initial wave of migration to test the U.S. labor market, but this migration should soon diminish if the jobs that these migrants seek shift to Mexico."     

Emigration dynamics in Pakistan

This study of emigration dynamics in Pakistan focuses on Pakistan's position as one of the world's leading manpower exporters. The study opens with a review of the history of international labor from the subcontinent. The second section looks at the problems with the collection of data on international migration and then considers the volume of international migration, migrant destinations, return migration, undocumented migration, and the stock of migrant workers abroad. The third section describes the economic and demographic context for overseas migration through a consideration of gross national product and the remittances of migrant workers, growth in gross domestic product, poverty and income distribution, the state of the population, labor force and employment, a profile of migrant workers, and the government's employment policy. The political and social context for overseas migration is the topic of the next section, and the discussion centers on emigration policy, institutional arrangements for manpower export and the welfare of migrants, and the economic resettlement of return migrants. Consideration of the future trends in international migration from Pakistan focuses on the cyclic nature of overseas labor migration, the existence of networks to facilitate such migration, uneven distribution of enabling resources in Pakistan, the paucity of available data, and governmental/cultural factors that promote and restrict such migration. It is concluded that both individual Pakistanis and the government consider overseas migration a positive force but that a reliance on such an ad hoc measure has costs that have not been considered by Pakistan's policy-makers.     

Emigration dynamics in the Arab region. IOM / UNFPA workshop, 7-8 October 1996, Geneva,Switzerland

This paper describes the four research monographs on emigration that were presented at the December 1995 Regional Workshop in the Arab Region. The workshop was an exchange of views and discussion of policy implications of emigration. Monographs were presented by Dr. Mayar Farrag on emigration in Egypt, Professor Nadji Safir on migration in the Maghreb, Dr. Setenay Shami on emigration dynamics in Jordan, and Dr. Lynn Evans on behalf of Dr. Ivy Papps on migration in Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries. Dr. Farrag identified three periods of migration. During the mid-1960s to the mid-1970s, migrants were officially encouraged by Egypt to fill education positions. During the 1970s, many migrants left for the oil-producing countries on a temporary basis. Since the mid-1980s, the influences on Egyptian migration have been the economic recession and oil prices in the Gulf states, the completion of infrastructure projects in most Gulf states, and the replacement of foreign labor with nationals. Dr. Farrag recommended improving the migrants' skills in English and technology in order to maintain a dominant flow of temporary migrants to the Gulf region. Professor Safir reported that persons from the Maghreb region (Tunisia, Algeria, and Morocco) migrated to France before independence and subsequently to West Germany and the Benelux countries. Algeria had the highest migration potential, and Morocco had the highest migration. Morocco had established networks in destination countries, high population growth rates, and high unemployment. Maghreb countries are receiving migrants from the south. Professor Safir recommended regional integration. Dr. Shami separated step migration from stepwise migration, which complicates push-pull theories. Dr. Papps argued that use of foreign labor may not be the best option for development, and that sending countries should be more aware of skill needs in GCC countries.     

Female Labor Migrants to Shanghai: Temporary “Floaters” or Potential Settlers?1

Using data on 54,373 migrants from the Fifth Sampling Survey of the Floating Population of Shanghai, this article isolates a group of 32,967 rural labor migrants who hold rural household registrations and whose previous occupations were in agriculture, and focuses on the women among them. The demographic and occupational characteristics of these 9,124 women are described, demonstrating that migration to Shanghai is a highly gendered process, with men and women working in different occupations and sectors. Moreover, important differences are found to exist between unmarried and married female rural labor migrants that indicate that the latter are probably accompanying and working with their migrant husbands. A significant proportion of female “social” migrants also exhibit characteristics that indicate that they are the spouses of male rural labor migrants, bringing to over one third the proportion of rural labor migrants to Shanghai who could be migrating as couples. These couples and their children may be the vanguard in a transition from temporary labor migration to settlement in China's large cities.     

Internal migration of the foreign-born in Canada

"This article uses the Public Use Sample file of the 1986 Canadian census to characterize and explain the interprovincial migration patterns of the foreign-born in Canada. Simple overall in- and outmigration rates are calculated for the foreign-born and compared to the interprovincial migration rates for Canadian-born migrants, specifically primary, return and onward migrants. A two-level nested logit model is then applied for foreign-born migrants age 20-64 to study the effects of personal factors and provincial attributes on their interprovincial migration patterns. The foreign-born have higher in- and outmigration rates than primary migrants, with Ontario having a strong ability to attract and retain the foreign-born. Despite these differences, the foreign-born respond to economic variables in a rational way and relatively little of the migration decision process can be explained by place-of-birth effects. Selectivity with respect to personal factors (i.e., education, age, sex, family type) is similar to the Canadian-born."     

Occupational Status of Rural Outmigrants and Return Migrants1

Abstract This research analyzes the occupational status payoffs to short-term outmigration and return migration for male workers in a developing country. Using an occupational status model that integrates explanations from the status attainment and migration literatures and longitudinal data from the Philippine Migration Survey, the results show that both outmigrants and return migrants have lower occupational prestige scores than nonmigrants. Regression standardization and decomposition analyses reveal that while rural outmigrants are positively selected on socioeconomic characteristics compared with nonmigrants, their lower occupational prestige scores are largely because their prior farming and fishing occupational experiences does not properly prepare them for the urban labor market Return migrants' lower occupational status scores are due to negative selection on socioeconomic characteristics.     

Emigration dynamics of eastern African countries

This examination of emigration dynamics focuses on 13 countries extending from Eritrea to Zimbabwe and Mozambique on the eastern African mainland and on 5 Indian Ocean island nations. The first part of the study looks at the temporal, spatial, and structural perspectives of emigration dynamics. Part 2 considers international migration in the region according to Appleyard's typology (permanent settlers, labor migration, refugees, and illegal migrants) with the additional category of return migration. Measurement issues in emigration dynamics are discussed in part 3, and the demographic/economic setting is the topic of part 4. The demographic factors emphasized include spatial distribution, population density, population structure, population dynamics, demographic transition, and the relationship between internal and international migration. Other major topics of this section of the study are the economic base, the human resource base, population and natural resources, the sociocultural context (emigration, chain migration, return migration, and migration linkages and networks), political factors (including human rights, minority rights and security, regional integration and economic cooperation, and the impact of structural adjustment programs), and a prediction of future emigration dynamics. It is concluded that refugee flows remain a major factor in eastern African countries but the development of human resources in the northern portion of the region indicates development of potential labor migration from this area. Data constraints have limited measurement of emigration in this region and may contribute to the seeming indifference of most eastern African countries to emigration policies. Emigration in this region has been triggered by deteriorating economic and political conditions and is expected to increase.     

The rural exodus in Mexico and Mexican migration to the United States

"During the 1950s, labor conditions in the United States attracted Mexican migrants, mostly from rural areas, in sharply fluctuating patterns of active recruitment, laissez-faire or repatriation. Because [the rural exodus and migration to the United States] have varied simultaneously and because they are interrelated, it has been assumed that the rural exodus in Mexico generally explains the flow of migrants across the border to the United States. This article argues that they must be analyzed instead as two distinct movements. Data presented show that most of the migrants created by the prevailing conditions in Mexican rural villages settle within Mexico and that only specific types of migrants are attracted over the border."     

The developmental implications of migration from and between small island nations

This article discusses the role of migration in relieving population pressures, thus making continuing development possible, using small nations in the Caribbean and the South Pacific as examples. The Caribbean islands and many Pacific islands have used out-migration to ease population pressures in this century. Surplus labor has been emerging in various Caribbean nations, independent of the international marketing problems of plantation agriculture. Rural populations alienated from plantations have had to make do on questionable and/or remote land. Population surpluses appear to originate in rural areas, but little evidence exists to suggest that those surpluses are the basis for the emigration patterns of the Caribbean islands. Emigration does not solve population problems because when ambitious, skilled workers leave their country, their actions have little to do with the existence of domestic surplus labor and their leaving may do little to facilitate domestic labor absorption. Thus, if mini-states wish to sustain their hopes of economic expansion, they must find the means to employ their surplus labor. Since mainly skilled migrants leave, their going may actually slow development and retard opportunities for labor absorption. Population movements internal to the Caribbean region may further complicate surplus labor and/or population problems. If protective entry requirements impede normal inter-island relations, they may interfere with developmental processes. In general, migration is not a feasible strategy for population control for small island nations. While temporary migration has a more positive impact than other forms of migration, problems do exist. For example, temporary migration 1) can impose significant economic costs on the source-country, and 2) may result in the source country being unable to capitalize on its initial investment in training and education of temporary migrants. In conclusion, import substitution through cooperation between small island nations, production for export where feasible, and more attention to more sophisticated international service linkages hold a better prospect for material progress than relying on the export of surplus populations.     

Labor emigration and economic development

"This article is concerned with the extent to which labor migration is advantageous to the labor exporting country. It focuses on development consequences of labor emigration with a view toward the formulation of policies which can shape those consequences into a positive force for development, discussing a wide variety of potential costs and benefits generated by labor emigration. The issue of private versus public choice relative to emigration is examined, as [are] the major economic benefits and costs of labor emigration and the influence of development objectives on the valuation of these costs and benefits. Policies by which emigration countries may increase the benefits from labor emigration and reduce the costs are outlined."     

Temporary Migration Overseas and Household Labor Supply: Evidence from Urban Philippines

The impact of international migration on the labor supply of workers' nonmigrant relatives has not been well documented in the literature. Using household survey data representing mostly overseas contract workers, i.e., temporary migrants, this paper shows that labor supplies of migrants and their nonmigrant relatives are inseparable. Migrants reduce the labor supply of nonmigrant relatives, which translates into lower earnings from local labor markets. Households substitute income for more leisure – a significant and previously little recognized benefit of emigration for Philippine households. This benefit varies by gender of nonmigrants and is generally higher for men.     

Return Migration in Africa and the Relationship between Educational Attainment and Labor Market Success: Evidence from Uganda

The return migration of skilled professionals has been suggested as a policy instrument suitable for reversing the large‐scale emigration of skilled professionals from African countries. However, there are no empirical studies showing how migrant professionals from Africa are reintegrated into the labor market after they return. This study examines the relationship between educational attainment and the likelihood of employment among native‐born African migrants returning home from abroad. The study focuses on the evidence from Uganda since this country has one of the longest histories of skilled migration in Africa. The results show that returning migrants with university degrees and vocational credentials are more likely to be employed than their nonmigrant and immigrant counterparts. However, this employment advantage was not observed among returning migrants with secondary schooling or below. Furthermore, the results show that returning migrants are generally more likely to be employed as district employment rates increase.     

Emigration dynamics from and within South Asia

This review of current knowledge about emigration dynamics from and within South Asia (Bangladesh, India, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka) opens with a brief history of the three phases of emigration from the area since the 1830s (plantation labor; postindependence to the UK, US, Canada, and Australia; and labor migration to the oil-exporting countries). The influence of the creation of Pakistan and Bangladesh is also covered as are British colonial and commonwealth policies. It is noted that migration data are incomplete and that India exhibits an ambivalence about collecting such information. The discussion then turns to emigration since 1970 and considers permanent migration from South Asia to the traditional receivers; South Asian asylum seekers in Europe; South Asian refugees, illegal migrants, migrant workers (flows and destinations), the stock of contract migrant workers (and their characteristics); returnee migrant workers; and skill levels. Analysis is provided of macro level determinants of emigrations such as gross national product (level and growth), the general demographic and social situation, labor force growth and structure, poverty and inequality, and internal and international migration. Environmental factors causing displacement in Southern Asia include floods, cyclones, river bank erosion, drought, and desertification. Global warming could displace millions of people in the region, and development projects have contributed to displacement. The remainder of the report covers political and ethnic factors, micro-factors influencing migration decision-making, the policies of sending and receiving countries, the consequences of emigration, and the potential for migration in the future.     

Social effects of labour migration: the Colombia experience

Colombia has traditionally been classified as a net exporter of manpower. However, the US's restrictions on immigration and the economic crisis in Venezuela, Colombia's sister republic, have affected both the volume and composition of emigration. It could be initially concluded that despite domestic difficulties and external problems, favorable economic prospects explain the present reduced outflow of immigrants. On the basis of a sample survey of applications taken during the last 2 years, 94% of arrivals were classified as professionals and technicians; the remainder were administrative workers. This achievement (which contrasts with high levels of unemployment among Colombian professionals) reflects new technological innovations. It appears that while Colombia exports engineers, it imports engineering. Opinion surveys conducted among employers, migrants, and educational authorities show that costs are not fully compensated by the migrant's improved standard of living in the country of destination, even if he has sent remittances to his country of origin. Investments in education and training yield no returns to the country if the recipient emigrates. The advantages of emigration, identified in the same surveys, include 1) reduction in internal pressure on the labor market, 2) improvement in the incomes of those who do not emigrate, and 3) resolution of economic problems for migrants. The Social Economics Plan implemented by the current government indirectly affects migratory processes by focusing on: 1) eradication of poverty; 2) the National Rehabilitation Plan, by which regional growth is stimulated in poor and economically precarious districts; and 3) the Integral Rural Development Plan which aims to eradicate poverty and improve production and commercialization in small-holding areas. The author concludes that the effects of migration on social structures must be examined in depth.     

Agricultural development and emigration: rhetoric and reality

"The untested premise of trade liberalizing U.S. development programs such as the Caribbean Basin Initiative is that commodity trade can substitute for international labor migration. Analysis of U.S. tomato producing regions in Sinaloa, Mexico and Florida suggests that the effect of trade liberalization on international labor migration is uncertain." The emphasis is on how such development projects might affect the flow of illegal migrants to the United States.     

The impact of Chilean migration on employment in Patagonia

This paper discusses the employment situation of Chilean migrant workers, their impact on labor markets in Patagonia, Argentina, and the government's past and projected responses to this phenomenon. In 1980, Chilean inhabitants of patagonia comprised 11% of the area's population. Chilean migration to patagonia was closely linked to economic activities that began to flourish in the 20th century, such as livestock raising, fruit and vegetable cultivation, and mining for coal and petroleum. No Chilean migrants work in a wide range of sectors. In Patagonia's southern provinces availability and ability to withstand rigorous climate conditions are the main factors which account for the prevalence of Chilean manpower. Chilean migrants do not in general displace local manpower. Legislation and the permeability of the border ensure that most workers enter the country as tourists. Clandestine migration is not an issue. Illegal migrants have provoked negative reactions for several reasons: 1) they comprise a marginal population without formal citizenship; 2) being employed as clandestine workers, they pay no social security, nor do their employers; 3) being illegal, they are obliged to accept lower wages and inferior working conditions which creates unfair competition within labor markets; and 4) as a result of these conditions, xenophobic and endophobic attitudes in relations with Argentine nationalists are reinforced. The government has attempted to solve these problems through various measures. Beginning in 1934, most foreigners entered Argentina with a tourist visa, becoming illegal when they stayed beyond authorized limits. Several measures over the years provided amnesty to illegal migrants. Currently, the law promotes immigration, monitors the admission of foreigners to the country and stipulates their rights and obligations. The law lists 115 articles on immigration promotion and on regulation of the movements of foreigners. Because of the present economic crisis in Argentina, authorities are investigating the effect of Chilean manpower on Argentine labor markets.     

Some new trends in Mediterranean labour migration: the Middle East connection

Changes in international labor migration in the Mediterranean region since the European economic recession of the early 1970s are examined. The authors note that labor migration to the oil-producing countries of the Middle East has increased and that this migration has differed from the previous movements to Europe, in that the migrants involved have been employed by contractors from their countries of origin or by other foreign companies. The probable future decline of this migration as infrastructure projects are completed is discussed, and the consequences are examined.     

Back to Square One: Socioeconomic Integration of Deported Migrants

This paper addresses the issue of socioeconomic integration of forced return migrants, focusing on the Maghreb countries. Starting from the hypothesis that the return has to be prepared, I tested whether a disruption in the migration cycle (such as deportation) increases the individual's vulnerability and affects his integration from both a structural and sociocultural point of view, using the 2006 Migration de Retour au Maghreb (MIREM, or Return Migration to the Maghreb) survey. I found that forced returnees are more vulnerable to negative labor market outcomes compared to voluntary returnees. The absence of forced returnees from the labor market, or their underperformances, creates a net loss for the origin country and also incentives to re‐migrate. The negative effect is statistically significant not only immediately after return, but also in the long run, at survey time. Forced return is also significantly and negatively correlated with sociocultural integration, reflecting a marginalization of deported migrants in their home environment, which may act as a re‐emigration incentive.     

The world economic system and international migration in less developed countries: an ecological approach

This study examines net migration in less developed countries (LDCs) within the context of a world economic system and an urban ecological framework. Data are obtained from the "1987 World Development Report," the "1983 and 1987 World Bank Tables," and the 1984 UN Demographic Yearbook. It is posited that international migration is a direct response to the changes in the ecological subsystems in LDCs. The framework of this analysis relies on analyses by Sly and Tayman that found in multi-equation models that migration was a demographic response to environmental conditions created by organization and technology. The maximum likelihood estimates derived from the proposed structural model indicate that net capital flows positively influence net migration rate directly. Large transfers of capital were associated with net migration. It is suggested that a reduced percentage in the labor force in agriculture may have a greater impact on emigration than wages or social disadvantages. Gross national product had a smaller impact on migration than net capital outflows. Exports had a positive impact on net migration. There was a direct negative effect of value added to manufacturing on net migration, and the direct negative effect was greater than the positive indirect effect. The percentage of persons economically active had a positive impact on net migration. Increased economic activity was related to increased emigration. The evidence suggests that world economic systems did have an impact on emigration, when profits were not invested in domestic economies of LDCs. Findings suggest that the value added to manufacturing, the percentage engaged in agriculture, and the economically active population mediated the impact of trade on net migration.     

Emigration dynamics in Bangladesh

This study of emigration dynamics opens by noting that emigration is one of the most dynamic economic and social elements in Bangladesh. The history of emigration from Bangladesh is sketched, and the level and trend of emigration is described for various destinations (especially the UK, the Middle East and North Africa, and Japan) and in terms of the socioeconomic background of migrants, channels of migration, occupations, the potential level of emigration, and applications for US Visas. The next section of the report presents the economic and demographic setting in terms of the gross national and domestic products, quality of life, the size and distribution of the population, the labor force, literacy, unemployment and underemployment, urbanization, internal migration, poverty, and income distribution. The discussion then centers on the sociopolitical setting and such factors as unmet basic human needs, the demand for expatriate workers, and emigration policy. It is concluded that the desperate economic situation in Bangladesh has combined with the demand for expatriate workers and the development of institutions to facilitate emigration. The result is increasing interest in emigration, which is fueled by mass communication highlighting the differences between the quality of life in Bangladesh and abroad.