CONFLICTING VIEWS ON THE EFFECT OF OLD-AGE AND SURVIVORS INSURANCE ON RETIREMENT

The literature explaining the sharp drop in labor force participation of the elderly in recent decades is examined. Several recent studies made by economists outside the Social Security Administration have found the impact of OASI to be much more important than was found by surveys made within the social security system. An examination of census and manpower data lends support to the view that OASI has had an important role in encouraging retirement at earlier ages. The drop in labor force participation among the elderly has impeded government efforts to improve the economic condition of elderly persons.     

Cohort Differences in Joint Retirement: Evidence from the Health and Retirement Study

The dramatic rise and sustained participation of recent cohorts of women in the labor force has coincided with their increased attachment to the labor market. In this paper we use twelve waves of the Health and Retirement Study (1992-2014) and investigate how married couples belonging to more recent birth cohorts compare with their predecessors in terms of coordinating their retirement decisions. Using a multinomial logit model we estimate the labor force dynamics of dual-earner married couples and find that couples with wives belonging to more recent birth cohorts are less likely to jointly exit the labor force. Further, this declining cohort trend in joint retirement can only partially be explained by commonly observed socio-economic, employment, and health related factors that affect retirement decisions, suggesting an important role for cohort changes in preferences and social norms such as preference for work and attitudes toward gender roles.     

Demographic and employment shifts: implications for benefits and economic security

This Issue Brief examines factors affecting the population's age distribution and composition, such as mortality rates, fertility rates, and immigration. In addition, it examines factors affecting labor force composition, such as immigration, increased labor force participation of women, and retirement trends, and discusses the potential impact of these changes on publicly financed programs: Medicare, Medicaid, Social Security, and federal employee retirement systems. The discussion also highlights the implications of these population and labor force changes on employers, employees, and retirees. The elderly population--now 31.8 million, representing 12.6 percent of the population--is projected to experience tremendous growth between 2010 and 2030, when the baby boom generation reaches age 65, rising from 39.7 million, or 13.3 percent of the population, to 69.8 million, or 20.2 percent of the population. Growth in the elderly population has implications for retirement and health care systems. Population projections suggest that the traditionally pyramid-shaped work force, with a proportionately greater number of younger workers than older workers, will be replaced with a more even age distribution. Consequently, significant and continued modifications to benefit packages, such as changes in compensation structures in which earnings automatically rise with age, are likely to occur. Women's labor force participation began to accelerate in the mid-1950s, rising 75 percent among women aged 25-44 in 1991, although there is some indication that this growth may be flattening. With women comprising a greater part of the labor force, employers will be encouraged to develop and implement programs to better accommodate their needs. Increased life expectancy, a decreased percentage of entry level workers, changes in Social Security's normal retirement age from 65 to 67, and employer plans to raise the normal age of retirement or provide incentives to delay retirement, could raise the average age of retirement. However, other factors, such as poor health, other sources of retirement income, and individual preferences for retirement, could still dominate the retirement decision. The combination of increased average life expectancy guaranteeing more years of retirement to finance and rising dependency ratios increases the future cost of Social Security financing. Medicare financing is also an important policy issue because the program is projected to experience financial difficulties in the short term, resulting from explosive health care costs. In addition, Medicaid expenditures are consuming increasing amount of shrinking state budget resources--a large portion of which is used to finance nursing home care for a growing elderly population.     

Retirement Plan Participation in an Era of Change: The Case of a Rural Region*

Individual savings are critical for retirement as government and employer‐based provisions fade or become less secure. Rural communities are vulnerable given their higher proportion of elderly and more who rely on Social Security. Using a telephone survey of working‐age residents in Michigan's rural Upper Peninsula, this research investigates factors associated with participation in tax‐advantaged retirement plans that have largely replaced defined‐benefit pension plans for earmarked retirement savings. The project also identifies factors predictive of making maximum contributions to those retirement plans. We consider several distinct categories of variables to reflect the social embeddedness of economic action. In addition, the research included community variables describing aspects of respondents' social context, a new component of the savings discourse, which we show to be significantly related to saving outside a tax‐advantaged retirement plan and making maximum contributions to a tax‐advantaged retirement plan.     

Labor Market Search and Optimal Retirement Policy

A popular and long‐standing view is that social security is a means for young, unemployed people to “purchase” jobs from older workers. Can social security, by encouraging retirement and hence creating job vacancies for the young, improve the allocation of workers to jobs? Maybe, according to a standard model of labor market search, but public retirement programs currently pay the elderly substantially more than their jobs are worth. An important effect is that retirement reduces the value of other vacant jobs. Our results imply that recent reforms aimed at reducing retirement incentives are likely to improve labor market efficiency.     

The Receipt of Transfer Payments by Immigrants in Sweden

Using the native-born as a benchmark, this article examines the reliance of immigrants on Sweden's social safety net. Both in the raw data, and after conditioning on a number of explanatory variables, we find that there are differences between immigrants and natives regarding participation in the Swedish income security system. We also find that there are differences in this respect between immigrants from different regions as well as between more recent and earlier cohorts of immigrants. As regards unemployment insurance benefits and cash labour market assistance, no clear pattern can be discerned in the results. In the case of early retirement pension and social assistance, however, the picture looks different. Immigrants arriving at an early date from typical labour immigration regions are over-represented in early retirement. Immigrants, especially non-European immigrants with a recent date of arrival, are over-represented among recipients of social assistance. The overall conclusion is that the immigrants' total rate of participation in the income security system is determined by their rate of unemployment and their state of health. On the other hand, the distribution of their participation among the different components of the income security system is highly dependent on their length of residence in Sweden and where they come from.     

Structural changes in the receiving country and future labor migration--the case of Kuwait

This article describes changes in the volume, age and sex composition, retention, productivity, types of occupation, and economic sector of the labor force in Kuwait. The focus is on the structural changes in the indigenous labor force. Data were obtained from censuses and labor force surveys during 1965-93. Policies after the 1990 invasion pertained primarily to security of public employment sector among natives. Over 98% of private sector employment is among non-Kuwaitis. Government programs support high fertility. Female illiteracy has declined, and the proportion of women with a higher education has increased. Natives comprised 20.4% of the total labor force in 1993. About 90% of native males work in the public sector. 45% of total male employment is in the production sector. Around 50% of non-Kuwaiti males have been employed in production work over the decades. Over 90% of Kuwaiti females in 1993 worked in professional or clerical work. Over 50% of total female labor force participation is in the service sector. Concentration in the public sector increased for Kuwaitis and declined for non-Kuwaitis. Labor force participation declined with increasing age. Retirement benefits encouraged early retirement. The private sector is experiencing the departure of long-term migrants and more rapid turnover of labor. Hours of work are longer in the private sector. Kuwait is still dependent on foreign workers in the production and service industries. It is likely that native male workers will replace foreign workers in professional work and administrative/clerical work. Policies that will assure future reliance on imported labor include the assurance of government jobs for Kuwaitis, retirement rules, and the profitability of the trade in labor.     

Personality and labor force participation across the life course: A longitudinal study of women's careers

The influences on and consequences of women's labor force experience are examined using data from members of the Berkeley longitudinal studies born between 1920 and 1929. In adolescence, these women were overwhelmingly oriented toward marriage and family rather than career, yet more than two-thirds eventually spent substantial time in the paid labor force. Consistent labor force participation was lower for women who had been attractive, outgoing, feminine, self-confident, and status seeking in their high school years. High labor force participation, however, was associated with increases in self-confidence, status seeking, assertiveness, and intellectual investment between adolescence and later adulthood. The demographic correlates of labor force participation changed over the life course: as family responsibilities diminished in the later middle years, both family composition and husband's occupational status decreased in importance, while the importance of a woman's own education level and her husband's expected retirement income increased.     

Recent developments in the employment and retirement of older workers in Germany

Against a background of an aging population, rising social security costs, and foreseeable labor and skill shortages, there have been public policy changes affecting older workers in Germany. Labor-market related initiatives aim at an increase of labor force participation among this group. Enterprise-related, active age-management strategies aim at improving occupational conditions of aging workers. In this context, prolonging the working life must be seen as one option of "active aging." Another view of the current retirement discussion is the question of how the unused potential of Germany's younger, early-retired seniors can be exploited. Active aging has become a social duty nowadays, with the intention that older persons contribute to society to avoid generational conflicts. In the future, active aging will preserve the competitiveness of enterprises and of the entire economy, despite an aging labor force. But gerontological research points out that different options to carry out individual life plans of active aging are also required. This article reviews the changes in public policies towards older workers and includes the findings of a project that illustrates good practice to combat age barriers in the labor world.     

The challenge of an aging work force: keeping older workers employed and employable

This article reviews labor-force trends and older-worker employment policies in Japan and the United States. Both countries have aging work forces, but Japan's labor force is and for some time has been older than that of the United States. Japan's Ministry of Labor began addressing older-worker issues over 30 years ago and in the ensuing years has promulgated numerous initiatives to extend working life. Mandatory retirement, however, remains both legal and common in Japan, yet labor-force participation rates are higher for older persons in that country than in the United States, where mandatory retirement is illegal. Japan's older-worker programs and policies clearly seem to have an impact on labor-force rates, although those rates are dropping among the elderly in Japan as well as in the United States. The transferability of these programs and policies to the United States is discussed.     

The Challenge of an Aging Work Force

This article reviews labor-force trends and olderworker employment policies in Japan and the United States. Both countries have aging work forces, but Japan's labor force is and for some time has been older than that of the United States. Japan's Ministry of Labor began addressing older-worker issues over 30 years ago and in the ensuing years has promulgated numerous initiatives to extend working life. Mandatory retirement, however, remains both legal and common in Japan, yet labor-force participation rates are higher for older persons in that country than in the United States, where mandatory retirement is illegal. Japan's older-worker programs and policies clearly seem to have an impact on labor-force rates, although those rates are dropping among the elderly in Japan as well as in the United States. The transferability of these programs and policies to the United States is discussed.     

POLICY VARIATION,LABOR SUPPLY ELASTICITIES,AND A STRUCTURAL MODEL OF RETIREMENT

This paper exploits a combination of policy variation from multiple pension reforms in Austria and administrative data from the Austrian Social Security Database. Using the policy changes for identification, we estimate social security wealth and accrual elasticities in individuals' retirement decisions. Next, we use these elasticities to estimate a dynamic programming model of retirement decisions. Finally, we use the estimated model to examine the labor supply and welfare consequences of potential social security reforms. (JEL J26, H55)     

Re-examining female labor supply responses to the 1994 Australian pension reform

Many governments are aiming to extend working lives by raising the age at which people can claim retirement pensions. This makes it vital to understand how these policies affect retirement decisions. In this paper, I revisit the labor supply effects of a major Australian reform that increased women’s pension age from 60 to 65. Atalay and Barrett (2015) studied these effects using repeated household surveys and a differences-in-differences design in which male cohorts form the comparison group. They estimate that the reform increased female labor force participation by 12 percentage points. Using earlier data, I show that the parallel-trends assumption did not hold before the reform because of a strong female-specific trend in participation rates across the relevant cohorts. Accounting for this trend, the estimated effect on female participation falls by two-thirds and becomes statistically insignificant at conventional levels. This highlights the importance of carefully assessing and controlling for trends across cohorts when evaluating pension reforms, which are typically phased in across cohorts.

     

GENDER-COHORT SUCCESSION AND RETIREMENT AMONG OLDER MEN AND WOMEN, 1951 TO 1984

Long-term trends in occupational change and retirement policy have influenced the relative labor force participation and retirement patterns of subgroups of the older population. Structural changes in the economy have had a large impact on older men and women, pushing the former out of the labor force while pulling the latter in. Meanwhile, the expansion of pension programs for the aged has generally increased the early retirement of men under age 65. Time-series analyses of these trends between 1951 and 1984 point to the specific influences of these factors on gender-cohorts.     

Individual and institutional push and pull factors as predictors of retirement timing in Europe: A multilevel analysis

The number of retired people in Europe has increased significantly in recent decades. It remains unclear, however, whether individuals are more likely to be pulled toward retirement by their expectations about life after retirement than they are to be pushed out of the labour market due to poor health or dislike of one's job. The fact that retirement timing differs rather considerably between European countries suggests that not only micro, but also macro push (i.e. labour market constraints) and pull (i.e. economic incentives) factors influence retirement decisions. This duality heightens the need to determine the influence of micro-level and macro-level push and pull indicators on the retirement timing of older workers (50 +) in Europe. Results are obtained performing multilevel event history analysis using longitudinal micro data from the first (2004/05) and second (2006/07) waves of the Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe and macro data derived from the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) and Eurostat. The results indicate that at the individual level, older workers are pushed out due to health problems as well as being attracted towards retirement to spend time with their grandchildren. At the institutional level, financial incentives such as a high implicit tax on continued work and high expenditures on early exit schemes make retirement attractive, whereas the institutional push context is of lesser importance.     

Do Mothers Work to Support Ailing Husbands?

This paper analyzes the role of a spouse's poor health in forming the mother's labor force participation decision. The data are drawn from the 1996 Survey of Income and Program Participation (SIPP), which follows individuals for four years. This paper uses a medical expenditure approach to measuring health. Because SIPP is a panel dataset, changes in health and labor force participation can be observed. This paper finds an increase of 8% in the wife's labor force participation when the health of the spouse falls from excellent to poor. This result of the changes in the mother's labor force participation is consistent with previous literature, indicating that this new health measure performed well.     

Social security reform ideas in Japan

Japan has a complex social security system. This article discusses the demographic and economic situation in Japan as background for understanding the setting in which the social security system functions. Japan has a three-pillar system for retirement income. The first pillar is the social security pension plan; the second pillar is the voluntary occupational pension plan; and the third pillar is personal savings, including the personal pension plan. The most important part of the retirement income system is the social security pension plan, which paid benefits accounting for 64% of the total income of elderly households in 1998. The five Employees' Pension Plans are established on a compulsory social insurance basis. Most large Japanese employers have a mandatory retirement age. Over 90% of all employees, including public sector ones, must retire from their career jobs at age 60.     

Vulnerability in old age: The issue of dependency in American society

The American focus on the importance of self-sufficiency and independence stands in contrast to the economic trends of recent decades that have led to an increased number of adults standing outside the productive core of economic activity. This “burden of dependency” has been manufactured by public policies designed to reconstitute the labor force and redistribute the burden of unemployment largely through the growth in retirement. Recently the success of income maintenance programs developed to improve the financial accessibility of retirement for older workers has begun to undercut the legitimacy of their status as dependents. This article examines that role of dependency, and argues that the social processes that produce dependency among our elders are not substantively different from the processes that affect younger age groups. Consequently the questions of distributive justice that are involved in the dependency of the elderly are questions that relate to members of all age groups who occupy positions of disadvantage in the economic structure.     

Social Security Reform Ideas in Japan

Abstract

Japan has a complex social security system. This article discusses the demographic and economic situation in Japan as background for understanding the setting in which the social security system functions. Japan has a three-pillar system for retirement income. The first pillar is the social security pension plan; the second pillar is the voluntary occupational pension plan; and the third pillar is personal savings, including the personal pension plan. The most important part of the retirement income system is the social security pension plan, which paid benefits accounting for 64% of the total income of elderly households in 1998. The five Employees' Pension Plans are established on a compulsory social insurance basis. Most large Japanese employers have a mandatory retirement age. Over 90% of all employees, including public sector ones, must retire from their career jobs at age 60.     

Female Labor Force Participation in Urban and Rural China1

Abstract The objective of this study is to examine female labor force participation and its determinants in rural and urban China. The sociological literature has demonstrated that participation tends to increase in urban and industrialized places where women have higher levels of education and fewer children, where more workers are engaged in service pursuits, and where family structure is less traditional. With the use of data on counties and cities (N = 2,377) from the I-percent sample of the 1982 census of the People's Republic of China, it was found that female labor force participation is likely to rise in areas with increased agricultural employment, educational levels, proportion of female-headed households, and higher male-to-female sex ratios. Both the size of the service sector and the fertility rate had negligible effects on female labor force participation. Although, on average, rural places have slightly higher levels of female labor force participation, when other variables are controlled, urban places have a higher rate of female participation. In addition, the findings suggest that market factors (i.e., education) are more likely to determine the rate of female labor force participation in urban areas; whereas demographic and social factors (i.e., sex ratio and household structure) play a more important role in explaining the female labor force participation in rural counties.