Predicting the decisions to vote and support unions in certification elections: An integrated perspective

This article develops and empirically tests a model of the dual decision-making process employees undergo to guide their behavior during organizing campaigns and elections. The model combines principles of risk-aversion theory with more traditional views that election decisions stem from cost-benefit analyses of union representation. Previous research lacks this integrated approach to the study of election behavior. Regression analyses on a sample of approximately 16,000 certification elections strongly supported the use of risk-aversion theory to predict employees’ willingness to formally participate in elections. Furthermore, we found that time exhibited a statistically significant, negative relationship with voting participation rates, the percentage of union votes, and union victories. The results also indicated that a saturation effect may exist for delays in the election process. Financial support for this research was provided by the Syracuse University Research Fund. The authors wish to thank two anonymous reviewers for helpful suggestions that significantly improved the paper.     

The effects of management practices on union election returns

This paper examines the importance of management suppression tactics on union activity in the United States. NLRB data on individual certification elections which have recently become available for the period 1972–1976 are merged with structural, demographic, and industry characteristics of the 96 largest SMSAs to ascertain the role of strategy versus structure in explaining union outcomes. The measures of election-generated membership outcomes are voter participation, the margin of pro-union votes, and union wins. Union suppression practices under study include consent elections, election delays, formal objections after unions win a certification election, elections overruled because of management unfair labor practices, elections held by management petition, and the number of unfair labor practice charges per representation election. Five of the six measures of suppression are significant determinants of some facet of union expansion after adjusting for structural characteristics of the area work force.     

Majority voting rules and the union success rate in national labor relations board representation elections

This paper simulates how the union success rate in representation elections would be affected if the NLRB reverted from its current simple-majority voting rule to its original majority-in-unit voting rule. Such a rule change would have altered 21 percent of decertification and 16 percent of certification victories over the period 1977–81, resulting in the loss of 180,400 actual or potential bargaining unit members for the union movement. Abstentions play an important role in election outcomes. Under the present voting rule unions have no clear advantage to “get out the vote” in decertification elections, but a clear disadvantage in certification elections. Under a majority-in-unit rule unions hold an advantage when they “get out the vote” in all representation elections. I would like to thank Mike Bognanno, Jim Dworkin, Paul Schumann, two reviewers, and the editor for helpful comments and David Wilson for excellent research assistance. I would also like to thank the NLRB for providing the election data tape.     

A Borda count for partially ordered ballots

The application of the theory of partially ordered sets to voting systems is an important development in the mathematical theory of elections. Many of the results in this area are on the comparative properties between traditional elections with linearly ordered ballots and those with partially ordered ballots. In this paper we present a scoring procedure, called the partial Borda count, that extends the classic Borda count to allow for arbitrary partially ordered preference rankings. We characterize the partial Borda count in the context of weighting procedures and in the context of social choice functions.     

South/non-south differentials in national labor relations board certification election outcomes: Comment

A recent study of National Labor Relations Board (NLRB) certification elections concluded that there are no regional differences in the probability of unionization. This paper suggests that it is inappropriate to draw such broad inferences from NLRB data, since elections occur only where an initial preference for unionism has been expressed. Using a national data set on private sector hospitals, we demonstrate that Southern location significantly reduces the probability of having an election and the probability of negotiating a collective bargaining agreement, but it does not affect the probability of a union election victory. Opinions expressed do not necessarily reflect the views of the authors’ institutions. We would like to thank Peter Feuille and James Kuhn for helpful comments on an earlier version of this paper.     

Choosing an electoral rule: Values and self-interest in the lab

We study the choice of multi-person bargaining protocols in the context of politics. In politics, citizens are increasingly involved in the design of democratic rules, for instance via referendums. If they support the rule that best serves their self-interest, the outcome inevitably advantages the largest group. In this paper, we challenge this pessimistic view with an original lab experiment, in which 252 subjects participated. In the first stage, these subjects experience elections under plurality and approval voting. In the second stage, they decide which rule they want to use for extra elections. We find that egalitarian values that subjects hold outside of the lab shape their choice of electoral rule in the second stage when a rule led to a fairer distribution of payoffs compared to the other one in the first stage. The implication is that people have consistent ‘value-driven preferences’ for decision rules.     

“It Isn’t in the Curriculum”: World History Teachers’ Views on U.S. Presidential Elections

Abstract

This study examines world history teachers’ attitudes regarding teaching U.S. presidential elections. During interviews with nine teachers, participants emphasized that the competing demands of their classrooms negatively influenced their willingness to teach about the U.S. presidential elections generally, and the 2016 Election specifically. The participants reconsidered their stances on not teaching elections during the interviews but struggled to reconcile their role as world history teachers with their priorities as social studies more generally. While elections are part of the civics curriculum and can be easily associated with history courses, this study suggests that greater attention should be paid to how citizenship practices can be understood through world history classes to promote teaching about elections as part of the curriculum.     

Elections in Post-Communist Ukraine, 1994–2004: An Overview

The paper attempts a comprehensive and theoretically grounded analysis of all parliamentary and presidential elections carried out in Ukraine in the decade 1994 to 2004. It is organized into four sections. The first deals with the electoral system, how it came into being and has been amended, how it translates votes into seats, the "effective number" of political parties in the electorate and the legislature, and the battle over the electoral system itself during the presidency of Leonid Kuchma. In the second section, voting behaviour of the Ukrainian electorate is examined. Using voting data, along with the results of public opinion surveys and reports on the conduct of the various election campaigns, the paper sorts through the relevant determinants of voting choice to identify the most pertinent ones as they operate in the Ukrainian context. Generally speaking, such determinants are: (1) background social characteristics of the voters, including the regional and ethnic factors; (2) the public's assessments of the current political and economic conditions in the country; (3) individual voters' partisan identification and opinions on prominent issues; (4) their retrospective evaluations of the incumbents; (5) leadership qualities of the contenders; and (6) prospective evaluations of parties and candidates as to their expected performance in office. To determine which of these are consistently more important is an essential aim of the paper. The third section assesses the degree to which accountability has been achieved in any of these elections—those to the Verkhovna Rada of 1994, 1998, and 2002, and the presidential elections of 1994, 1999, and 2004. A penultimate section is devoted to evaluating the policy consequences of these elections: what difference have Ukraine's elections made to policies over the past decade? In the concluding portion, a characterization of the emerging party system is given along with a summing-up on the voting behaviour of Ukrainians in the post-communist era.     

Elections,Repertoires of Contention and Habitus in Four Civil Society Engagements in Malaysia's 2008 General Elections

The general elections in Malaysia in 2008 saw the ruling coalition, which has ruled Malaysia uninterrupted since independence in 1957, lose control of a number of states and become significantly weakened at the federal level. Amongst the reasons often cited for this was significant and diverse civil society participation in these elections which was often critical of the incumbent government. This article examines four different engagements in the 2008 elections by civil society actors. Through this examination, it is demonstrated that distinctions between types of collective action, from social movements to political parties, are especially likely to be blurred in the context of repressive states such as Malaysia. This examination in turn sees Charles Tilly's concept of repertoires of contention defended against both Nick Crossley's criticisms of it and his preference of Pierre Bourdieu's concept of habitus.     

The election campaign as a liminal stage – negotiations over meanings

The paper deals with the role and significance of election campaigns through a consideration of the relevant literature in political science, communication and anthropology. The current interpretation of elections as ritual and drama is altered by focusing on V. Turner's concept of liminality. As liminal periods, it is claimed, election campaigns are an active arena for social construction of political worlds. They take an active part in moulding political cognition and thus produce long-term effects. Perceiving elections in this conceptual frame focuses the empirical concern on the different actors participating in moulding old or new social meanings, the way challenging alternatives are presented, negotiated, included or excluded, the way events as well as symbols became meaningful. It reveals the contested as well as the taken-for-granted, unquestioned and thus reinforced political symbolic world.     

Candidate behavior under mixed motives

This paper presents a spatial election model in which candidates have mixed motives: They care both about winning and about the content of their platforms. The predictions of the model are broadly consistent with what we observe empirically: some elections with convergent candidate positions, and some with divergent positions; the prevalence of elections in which the expected vote shares are not equal; candidates' positions reacting in part to those of their opponents; and candidates seeking a balance between what they believe and what they need to advocate to get elected.     

Voting here and there: political integration and transnational political engagement among immigrants in Europe

In this article, I examine voting patterns in origin and receiving country national elections among immigrants in Europe. The existing scholarship on transnational political engagement offers two competing interpretations of the relationship between immigrant integration and transnational engagement, which I classify as the resocialization and complementarity perspectives. The resocialization perspective assumes that transnational political engagement gradually declines as immigrants become socialized into the new receiving society. Conversely, the complementarity perspective assumes that immigrant integration increases transnational political engagement. I test these competing perspectives with survey data collected between 2004 and 2008 for 12 different immigrant groups residing in seven European cities. The analysis examines how immigrant political and civic participation in receiving countries affect their proclivities to vote in homeland elections. I also analyse the effects of receiving and origin country contexts on immigrant voting behaviour in homeland elections. While my findings support both the resocialization and complementarity perspectives, they also highlight the ways in which a set of origin‐country contexts shape immigrant propensities to engage in transnational electoral politics. I observe a degree of complementarity among immigrants with resources who are motivated and eligible to participate in both receiving and origin‐country elections.     

Labor Schweiz: Vergleichende Wahlbeteiligungsforschung bei Kantonalen Parlamentswahlen

How to explain different levels in voting turnout among the Swiss sub-national units? To answer this question, this study presents the first comparative and macro-quantitative investigation of the voting participation in parliamentary elections of the Swiss Cantons between 1982 und 2004. The paper evaluates political institutions, socio-economic factors, and cultural foundations. According to our statistical inquiry we present four main determinants of cross-cantonal variance in voting turnout: mandatory voting laws, electoral thresholds, the coverage of partisan membership, and a culture of Catholicism. Moreover, the estimations reveal that there is no systematic influence of patterns of direct democracy on the voting participation in parliamentary cantonal elections.     

Electoral Context,Issues, and Voting for Women in the 1990s

Abstract

This research hypothesizes that, because of the particular stimulation provided by the focus on candidate sex and gender-related issues in the electoral environment, there was a unique set of demographic and attitudinal variables related to voting for a woman candidate for the House of Representatives in 1992. Because the environments of the elections of 1994 and 1996 were relatively “gender-free,” these variables were not related to voting behavior in these years. The analysis supports the hypothesis that the determinants of support for women congressional candidates are different in 1992 than in subsequent elections. It also suggests that the differing environments of the three elections may be a contributing factor to these differences.     

Candidate Sex and Congressional Elections

Abstract

In 1992, an unprecedented number of women were elected to Congress. This election seemed to debunk the notion of female disadvantage as female candidates ran better than males. Since 1992, however, female candidates have failed to compete as effectively as men in congressional elections, again raising the specter of a sex bias. In this paper, we examine 365 open seat congressional elections held since 1982 in order to ascertain whether the indicators of female success in the 1980s and early 1990s structured female candidate success and/or failure after 1992. For this study, these indicators include candidate attributes such as financial quality and candidate experience. Our examination indicates that candidate attributes have significantly weakened as predictors of open seat election outcomes, especially in female versus male races. Instead, a strong increase in the correlation of the presidential normal vote and the congressional vote in open seats since 1992 indicates the emergence of elections where candidate attributes are secondary to the partisanship of the district. Female versus male races demonstrate much higher partisan coherence than all-male open seat contests, and Democratic women run about six points behind Republican women when district partisanship is controlled. These factors, combined with the increasingly Democratic distribution of female nominations, mitigate against female gains through open seats after 1992.     

Trends in and determinants of outcomes in multi-union certification elections

We use data on 68,000 single-union and 3,600 multi-union elections during the years 1977–1994 to investigate factors influencing outcomes of multi-union elections. We find that, even though the win rate is much higher in multi-union as opposed to singleunion elections, the factors influencing the outcomes are surprisingly similar.     

INFLATION AND ELECTIONS: THEORY AND EVIDENCE FOR SIX OECD ECONOMIES

This paper examines the relation between post-election inflation and the incumbent's re-election chances using data for 50 elections in six OECD economies. Ijnd that post-election inflation is above average if the election race is close but not if the incumbent's election prospects are very good or very poor. The theoretical part of the paper shows that this result is consistent with rational political business cycle models. ( JEL E31)     

Verzerrte Beteiligung

To cope with the erosion of civic engagement, the expansion of public participation is postulated an efficacious remedy. Many authors notice the drawback of low turnout with unequal and biased participation compared to institutional elections. As the very first, this article not only emphasizes biased participation, but empirically analyses the biased output of participation methods.The example is the referendum on Stuttgart 21 (S21) in the year 2011. The counterfactual result for nonvoters is predicted by linking macro and micro-data. Estimations on municipality-level show participation-bias above elections, but below petitions and demonstrations. The counterfactual result predicts an enhanced rejection of S21.     

Determinants of the decertification process: Evidence from employer-initiated elections

There have been relatively few studies on why workers choose to decertify a union as their bargaining unit and virtually no empirical studies on the outcomes of employer-initiated representation elections. Using data from the NLRB monthly election reports (1977–1981), we attempt to analyze the factors that seem to influence the outcomes of employer-initiated representation elections with an incumbent union. Variables in our analysis include size of the election unit, region, industrial classification, type of incumbent union, and the state of the local economy. While the data show a concentration of elections on the West Coast, there is no significant difference in the ability of unions there to “win” decertification elections.     

Going from theory to practice: the mixed success of approval voting

Approval voting (AV) is a voting system in which voters can vote for, or approve of, as many candidates as they like in multicandidate elections. In 1987 and 1988, four scientific and engineering societies, collectively comprising several hundred thousand members, used AV for the first time. Since then, about half a dozen other societies have adopted AV. Usually its adoption was seriously debated, but other times pragmatic or political considerations proved decisive in its selection. While AV has an ancient pedigree, its recent history is the focus of this paper. Ballot data from some of the societies that adopted AV are used to compare theoretical results with experience, including the nature of voting under AV and the kinds of candidates that are elected. Although the use of AV is generally considered to have been successful in the societies—living up to the rhetoric of its proponents—AV has been a controversial reform. AV is not currently used in any public elections, despite efforts to institute it, so its success should be judged as mixed. The chief reason for its nonadoption in public elections, and by some societies, seems to be a lack of key “insider” support.