论产业结构演变对我国新型工业化道路的启示

工业化是一国经济走向发达的必经之路,对于发展中国家来说,工业化也是其产业结构迅速转变的重要时期.然而,由于对工业化内涵认识上的偏差,使得许多发展中国家在以政府为主导的工业化过程中出现产业结构扭曲、资源浪费和二元经济加剧的情形.实际上,工业化并不只是发展工业或重工业,也不是只发展工业和服务业,而是三次产业的协调发展.因此,我国的新型工业化道路必须改变政府的职能,发挥市场的资源配置功能,协调发展工业、农业和服务业,以工业化、城市化为先导,实现城乡一体化和二元经济结构的消解,同时,大力发展现代服务业特别是生产者服务业,形成以高新技术产业为先导、基础产业和制造业为支撑、服务业全面发展的新格局.     

论服务业与制造业的协同发展

在现代产业分工中,服务业与制造业之间的协同发展趋势不断凸显。对于中国而言,服务业与制造业协同发展既是转变经济发展方式、走新型工业化道路的内在要求,也是提升制造业竞争力、推进产业结构升级的重要保障。中国的服务业市场化程度不高,粗放式扩张,服务业与制造业关联程度较低,应从强化市场竞争、强化产业关联、优化产业布局等方面来促进协调发展。     

中国经济低碳发展的途径与潜力分析

无论是在经济、政治还是其他方面,中国都是国际舞台上的一个重要角色。中国正处于快速工业化进程之中,以重化工产业主导的中国工业化进程不可避免地要消耗大量能源和资源,表现出前所未有的环境压力、资源压力和气候压力。虽然《京都议定书》生效并没给现在的中国带来切实压力,但对未来中国影响巨大。发展中的中国必须做好迎接后京都挑战的准备。本文介绍了低碳经济的内涵及其在英国的实践,从内部需求和外部驱动两方面说明了中国经济需要走低碳发展道路,并对中国经济低碳发展的可能途径和潜力进行了分析。     

东亚经济格局的变迁与展望

当今的东亚已经成为世界经济发展最快的地区,尤其是20世纪80年代后,成为世界最具经济活力的地区。在过去的30年中,中国的经济总量紧追并超过日本,印度、韩国和其他东亚国家与日本的差距也在缩小,东亚和印度的整体区域经济发展正趋向于平衡。伴随着区域经济整体的高速发展,东亚和印度正在形成一个庞大的潜在市场。金砖国家是"新兴市场国家"的代表,但是也有与其他新兴市场国家明显不同的地方。以金砖国家为代表的潜在市场经济体虽然在不同的历史时期同被称之为"新兴市场",但是自然禀赋和经济开放程度的不同使其表现出不同的经济模式。经济发展受到一国或地区多种经济要素的驱动和制约,而在不同历史时期经济要素的变化也使得一国或地区的经济发展格局展现出不同的面貌。造成东亚经济格局变迁的深层次原因是资本、技术、资源、劳动力和市场空间关系的变化。随着东亚各国经济开放程度的加深,东亚已经形成一个密不可分的区域经济综合体。东亚地区将在未来的几十年中成为世界关注的中心,在世界经济遭遇困难的大背景下,东亚经济面对着难得的发展机遇。东亚各国应该珍惜这种难得的发展机遇,消除彼此分歧、互利共赢。     

新型工业化道路之"新"解读--以浙江省为例

面对经济全球化潮流,中国将走一条与传统工业化全然不同的新型工业化道路。目前对新型工业化的研究主要涉及可持续发展、产业结构升级、竞争创新、全局观四种视角。新型工业化道路之"新"在于两个层面:新的时代背景和新的体制背景。作为中国经济最富有活力的省份之一,浙江在走新型工业化道路方面取得了成绩,但存在的问题也值得进一步研究:重化工业的地位如何摆正,区域工业布局如何协调,新型工业化的衡量标准如何制定和指标体系如何建设。     

我国工业化进程中面临的主要矛盾

必须认识到中国工业化进程的长期性和艰巨性,研究中国工业化道路的特殊性,解决我国工业化进程中的主要矛盾:一是农村剩余劳动力向非农产业转移的任务艰巨;二是资源性产品供给不足是制约我国经济持续快速增长的瓶颈;三是工业化的技术来源过多依赖国外,产业技术的自主创新能力薄弱;四是区域经济发展不平衡,东西部地区间经济发展差距不断扩大;五是在扩大开放条件下提高国际产业分工地位面临的外部压力。     

新型工业化道路的结构变动特征

走新型工业化道路将会有力地推动我国经济结构的调整和升级进程。在新型工业化条件下,产业结构的变动将朝着缩小其与一般模式的偏差的方向发展;需求结构变动方面,最终消费率将会有明显上升的过程,资本形成率将有较大幅度的下降;所有制结构将继续向多元化、合理化方向发展,最终形成国有经济为主导,混合经济为主体,多种经济成分共同发展的新格局;而城乡结构变动的基本特征是,城市化进程加速推进,二元经济结构状况明显改善,城乡经济协调发展程度进一步提高。     

中国印度金融发展和经济增长比较研究

本文将中印两国实体经济部门与金融业的相关变量融入经济增长进程中进行比较分析,找出相互之间存在的内在联系。从中得出的结论是,不同的金融变量在两国的经济增长进程中所发挥的作用也各不相同。其中,固定资本构成率在中国发挥的作用比印度要大,且中国的经济增长领先于金融发展;而印度的金融发展却对经济增长起到了更加积极的促进作用,并在金融体系的有效性上优于中国。     

软件和IT服务外包业与印度现代化模式

最近10多年来,印度软件业的发展突飞猛进,成为其国民经济增长最快的部门。毫无疑问,印度凭借其数理逻辑和语言优势,即将成为软件超级大国。然而,本文认为,“以软件和服务外包业为主导”不能成为印度的现代化模式,如要实现整个国家的现代化,印度应当大力发展制造业和传统服务业。目前,印度制造业的形势正在逐渐改善之中。     

中国加快发展高技术服务业的意义及模式选择

20世纪90年代以后,中国高技术服务业快速发展,高技术服务业在未来现代服务业的发展中将占据越来越重要的地位.中国加快发展高技术服务业有助于带动中国产业结构优化与升级、加快转变经济发展方式、实现“中国制造”向“中国创造”转变.目前,中国高技术服务业仍存在核心技术发展滞后、国际竞争力不强、自主创新水平较低、高新技术服务业市场化与产业化进程较慢等重大问题.根据目前中国经济的实际发展阶段、社会发展程度,“渐进性赶超”模式和“模仿创新”模式应是推动中国高新技术服务业发展的主要动力.     

Policy responses to external shocks in sub-Saharan African countries

The author analyzes the experience of sub-Saharan African countries with external shocks in the form of the deterioration of the terms of trade and the world recession between 1973 and 1978, with distinction made between low-income and middle-income countries. Adjustment to external shocks in low-income sub-Saharan African countries took largely the form of reductions in imports through lower rates of economic growth and lower income elasticity of import demand while these countries lost export market shares. Losses in export market shares were smaller in the middle-income countries and in the entire group, export performance was positively correlated with the rate of economic growth.     

The ABC of Child Care Politics

The care and education of children below school age is an area of intense public debate and the subject of considerable policy innovation in Western democracies. Child care raises complex philosophical and policy issues ranging from broad questions about the relative responsibilities of state, market and family to technical aspects of policy design such as the interaction of child care subsidies with income support, family payments and taxation. Across the developed world, countries are finding new ways to address the growing need for child care, with market‐based solutions looming large in several countries. This paper analyses Commonwealth policy towards long day care in Australia since the early 1990s. It explores the shift towards market‐based, for‐profit care for children below school age, especially the growth of publicly listed child care corporations. In allowing a single corporation to assume a dominant position in the provision of long day care, Australia has embarked on a vast experiment in the care of children, unparalleled in other countries.     

新兴国家崛起与构建国际经济新秩序——以中国的路径选择为视角

我国学界历来把发展中国家建立国际经济新秩序的斗争主要界定为诉求“特殊与差别待遇”之举。然而，晚近新兴国家不断崛起，与发达国家间经济实力差距趋于缩小。于是，中国等新兴国家开始向发达国家主张“平等与无差别待遇”。此等新路径的开辟，可能意味着正在推动继20世纪80年代初之后一度潮落的发展中国家建立国际经济新秩序的斗争将再掀高潮。有鉴于此，学界在继续研究传统路径的同时，应更加关注此等新路径的开辟对和平发展之中国的意义，从而完整、准确地把握中国参与重构更加公正之国际经济秩序斗争的基本态势。     

China’s Opening Up: Idea,Process and Logic*

China’s opening up since 1978 has been a historical process of continuous expansion and deepening. In the course of this process, Chinese policymakers and the mass of the people have gradually deepened their understanding of reform and opening up, and China’s relations with the world, especially its role in the world, have been constantly adjusted. At the beginning of reform and opening up, China adapted to and was integrated into the international economic system; it then became engaged in participating in and improving that system, and then became an advocate and leader in the reform of the international system. Moreover, in practice, an incremental series of coherent open economic policies and theories with Chinese characteristics that facilitate an open economy have come into being. Under the guidance of Deng Xiaoping Theory of reform and opening up, China’s practice of opening up to the outside world is not only a good fit with China’s traditional trade theory, the Huainanzi/Sima Qian Theorem, under which people benefit by exchanging their surplus goods for those that they lack, but is also explicable in terms of modern economic trade theories. With the entry of socialism with Chinese characteristics into the new era and profound changes in the international environment, China still needs to open further to lead and promote mutual and shared openness for all countries in the world, so as to create good international conditions for promoting the construction of a shared future for mankind and building a world of lasting peace, universal security, common prosperity, openness, inclusiveness, cleanliness and beauty.     

Social policy by numbers. How international organisations construct global policy proposals

Considering the socio‐economic and cultural diversity of the world, it is a bold undertaking by international organisations to propose welfare policies designed to apply to all or many countries. We argue that since the 1990s, new instruments of quantification have extended the knowledge base of international organisations, helping them to design and communicate policy proposals with a global scope. We map these numerical instruments in the field of basic income protection, showing that they serve to identify global social problems and to design global models of welfare. Three case studies illustrate the findings. To make sense of the spread of quantification, we draw on world society theory, arguing that the numerical instruments create a global space of observation, comparison and deliberation regarding social reform. We conclude that numerical instruments have facilitated the expansion of global social protection since the 1990s, but have also narrowed social concerns in the process.     

北极问题演化及其对世界政治经济格局影响的研究

近年来,随着北极地区的经济价值和战略地位逐渐升高,北极问题的世界政治经济色彩越来越浓厚。从与北极问题相关的国家和国际组织对国际航线和资源能源等领域的影响以及越来越多的国家制定北极相关战略政策等方面来看,北极问题对世界政治经济格局影响的范围不断扩大。同时,从美俄、东北亚地区、欧盟等国际地位的变化来看,北极问题对世界政治经济格局影响的程度也在不断加深。在此作用下,世界政治经济重心将会进一步向北转移。世界大国在未来都会与北极问题形成千丝万缕的联系,如果不抓住机会积极争取北极权益、不关注和重视北极问题的发展趋势,势必会丧失占据下一轮世界政治经济格局转变优势地位的机会。     

The Influence of “Made in China” on the Great Moderation of the Global Economy：An Empirical Test Based on Value Chains*

We have collected data on China’s 22 main trading partners for 1984-2012 and used System GMM to study the influence of “Made in China” on the “Great Moderation” of the global economy. Our research shows that although trade scale, real effective exchange rate, oil prices, fixed capital investment and other variables have significantly expanded global economic volatility, “Made in China” has markedly restrained output growth rate fluctuations in countries around the world and price fluctuations in developed countries, helping the global economy develop with “high growth, low volatility.” “Made in China” is a long-term variable in the context of the global value chain. China needs to take advantage of global value chain restructuring to further upgrade and develop processing and manufacturing industry and expand its presence in the international market. It could choose to adopt a “mirror strategy” and launch trade sanctions targeting counterpart industries or enterprises to counter irrational trade sanctions from the developed countries. At the same time, however, it is important for China to make its own contribution to improve global economic governance and building a new international economic order in the era of global value chains by strengthening its policy coordination with other countries.     

Developments in and prospects for external debt position and burden of developing countries: The case of Korea

The delay of strong economic recovery by industrialized nations, slowed world export growth, and higher interest rates have worsened the financial situation of a number of developing countries which have relied on external borrowings to sustain current account deficits and protect economic development. Recently, well-publicized concerns over the ability to these countries to repay their considerable debt burden have been raised. To shed light on these concerns, the paper focuses on Korea—one of the heavier debt-holding countries. It describes the process through which Korea has acquired its external debt over the past decade, assesses the trends in its debt burden, and presents prospects for the period 1982–1986. Using the Korean experience, the paper shows that the most common indicators used for evaluating foreign debt burden, such as the long-term service ratio, need to be supplemented by other measurements. In a world economy characterized by short-term debts with variable interest rates, the paper suggests that an important tool in analyzing the external debt burden should be the short-term debt burden.     

Capitalism's global financial crisis: The role of the state

The bankruptcy and merger of three major American investment banks: Bear Stearns, Lehmann Brothers and Merrill Lynch in 2008 have shocked the United States government to undertake dramatic market intervention by the state, and a $700 billion U.S. dollar bailout, that resembles “industrial policy” in many other countries. Critics of market intervention, often called industrial policy in many countries, point out to two potential weaknesses: governments may have less knowledge than markets on how to pick winners and industrial policy creates possibilities of corruption and rent seeking. This research note's contribution analyzes the global financial crisis of 2008 and 2009, through the importance of, institutional infrastructures, and how industrial policy can help create the institutional infrastructures that can expand economic wealth and stability for all countries in the 21st century.     

Multilateralism under threat: Causes,impact, and the policy debate on government intervention in trade

Several forces fostered trade liberalization since the end of World War II. Production and trade interacted quite favorably during the period. In the past quarter century real income in the OECD economies grew at almost 4% yearly, while the volume of export increased by almost 7 percent. However, in the first half of the 1980s, the chemistry of the situation seems to have changed as protectionist tendencies developed almost everywhere in the world. The very same multilateral nature of the world trading system is under threat, as illiberal discriminatory practices are being implemented bilaterally and, even more often, unilaterally. What are the forces at play to increase the pressure towards government intervention in trade? The paper reviews (i) macroeconomic issues and policy situations, as well as (ii) structural issues concerning the working of the economic systems of industrial countries. The pressure for trade intervention in the U.S. is addressed separately with respect to Europe, given the structural and cyclical differences between the two economies The case of Japan is dealt with with reference to the alleged interrelation between Japan's international competitiveness and its macroeconomic policies. Matters of more direct concern to the LDCs are covered at the end of the paper, with emphasis placed on the restructuring process under way in response to, and as a consequence of, the external debt. The paper ends with a recommendation to all countries to make efforts to preserve and strengthen the multilateral and liberal foundations of the international trading system.