The child survival hypothesis

Summary Because of current interest in the child survival hypothesis, we have reviewed available evidence bearing upon the relationships of infant and child mortality to fertility and contraceptive behaviour. The evidence is drawn from time series data for local and national vital events, from special in-depth studies of the infant mortality-fertility relationships in family formation, and from service statistics from health and family planning programmes. As a result of this review, we suggest five clarifications which should be made in redefining the child survival hypothesis and assessing its potential programme implications. The child survival hypothesis states that improved child survival will contribute to increased family planning motivation and consequent fertility decline. The evidence presented here suggests that the effect is not automatic and probably not a necessary pre-condition for fertility decline. There is certainly not a reflexive one-to-one replacement, but a partial effect may still be important. In the clearly demonstrated reduction in inter-pregnancy intervals after a child death, the major component is undoubtedly the removal of the biological protection of lactational amenorrhoea. A separate but somewhat smaller effect has been demonstrated in situations where lactation did not seem to have been the explanation. It is expected that increased child survival will contribute to fertility decline mainly in countries experiencing rapid mortality decline and population growth. The replacement of children who die is probably not so much 'volitional' as a result of alterations in sub-conscious expectations. It is apparent that in traditional agrarian populations, few direct and manipulable means of influencing motivation for fertility limitation are available, and, therefore, it must be stressed that integrated health and family planning programmes do provide opportunities for immediate programme development. By making parents aware of improved changes of survival through health services in which they develop confidence, the spontaneous linkages between mortality and fertility can presumably be reinforced. Family planning services must be provided as an essential initial step in programme development, but they can be made more effective, as well as politically more acceptable if appropriately integrated with maternal and child health and nutrition services.     

Integration revisited

Much of the existing literature inmigration and integration research pays hardly any attention to the subjective view of the immigrants on their individual migration history and the links between prior life phases and the structural embedding of integration processes. This article aims at connecting objective data and subjective perspectives analysing the intersections between migrants?? perceptions of their individual ??migration project??, objective traces of their biographies and societal opportunity structures. The model, that we develop at the end of the paper summarises emerging hypotheses during the analysis and stresses the dynamic, contextual and interactional nature of integration processes. It is based on qualitative interviews with 30 immigrants from the two biggest guest-worker groups in Austria originally recruited during the 1960ies and 1970ies from Ex-Yugoslavia and Turkey.     

The mathematics of sex and marriage,revisited

We analyze the problem of modeling marriages in a two‐sex model of population dynamics. We first deal with the problem of incomplete and inconsistent census data and then use a simulator to compare the performance of a variety of marriage functions in modeling births and couples during the ten‐year period between consecutive U.S. censuses. Unlike most empirical methods for comparing marriage functions based on goodness of fit, the differences in the projections of the various functions in our method are of the same magnitude (or even smaller) than the errors between the projected and real data. We observe that for the population of the United States, the harmonic mean function frequently found and used in the literature is a quite poor performer when compared with many other functions in the family we use.     

The relative risk aversion hypothesis of educational choice

Analysing young people's educational choices, we derive and test implications of a relative risk aversion hypothesis: that educational choices are made so as to minimize the risk of ending up with a lower level of education than one's parents. These implications are in general different from what one would expect from human capital theory. We use a unique data set which combines data from administrative registers on young people's pathways through the educational system and their family background with survey data on their academic abilities at lower secondary school. The evidence is partly in favour of the relative risk aversion hypothesis. Received: 19 August 1999/Accepted: 10 January 2001 All correspondence to Eskil Heinesen. We are grateful to Karin Blix Mogensen and Martin B?g for excellent research assistance, and to two anonymous referees, John F. Ermisch, Martin Browning, Michael Rosholm, Paul Bingley, and participants at the conference of the European Society for Population Economics in Turin, 1999, for valuable comments and suggestions. Responsible editor: John F. Ermisch.     

The old age security hypothesis and optimal population growth

The old age security approach is used to study the relationship between the rate of growth of the population and capital accumulation, within a Samuelson-Diamond overlapping generations framework. It is shown that a decentralized economy will fail, in general, to achieve the Pareto optimal path. However, a pay-as-you-go social security scheme in which the old get transfers which are proportional to the number of their children may restore optimality. On the other hand, child support systems or subsidies to capital can guarantee the optimal capital: labor ratio, but not the optimal population growth rate, while a lump sum social security system can guarantee the optimal population growth rate, but not the optimal capital: labor ratio. Finally, in a monetary economy any policy aimed at correcting the interest rate will restore full optimality.An earlier version of this paper was written during a visit to the University of California, San Diego. The paper benefited from the comments of two referees.     

Engel functions revisited

Engel functions for the United States, based on cross-sectional data for 1972–73, are compared with those for 1960–61. Elasticities of expenditure for major categories of consumption are consistent with those found in other countries at various levels of economic development. However, elasticities for specific items within major categories varied markedly. Rental housing emerges as an inferior good. Superior goods are grouped into four major classes based on expenditure elasticities. Low elasticities tended to decline over time and were associated with positive family size elasticities. Expenditure elasticities that were high tended to become still higher over time and were associated with negative family size elasticities. An examination of expenditure elasticities across income classes indicates that ‘rich’ and ‘poor’ families have become more alike with respect to expenditures for ‘necessities’ but more unlike with respect to expenditures for ‘luxuries’ — education, recreation, owner housing, and men's and women's clothing. As incomes have risen, the composition of consumption has changed, as have the meaning and character of poverty. Questions are raised concerning the significance and research implications of the declining achievement/aspiration ratio for certain kinds of goods and services for many consumers within the United States and for most consumers in countries where incomes have risen less relatively and absolutely than have those of families in highly developed economies.     

The applicability of the burgess zonal hypothesis to urban Canada

A replication for Canada of Schnore's studies of socio-economic differentiation between United States central cities and suburbs produces generally similar results, although the Canadian patterns are by no means as pronounced or conclusive. Older, larger and highly suburbanized Canadian areas are most apt to have high-status groups over-represented in the suburbs and low-status groups over-represented in the central city. Furthermore, this pattern of socio-economic differentiation is found less often in Canadian areas than in the United States areas which tend to be older and larger. A study of change over time also suggests a movement toward socio-economic differentiation between city and suburb. These results are consistent with the Burgess zonal hypothesis which argues that lower-status groups increasingly inhabit the central section and upperstatus groups the outskirts as cities grow.     

The influence of first generation fertility and economic status on second generation fertility

This paper examines the impact of parental economic status and family size on the actual and expected fertility of adult children using longitudinal data from two generations of families participating in the Panel Study of Income Dynamics. There was a modest positive relationship between first generation family size and second generation fertility. More importantly, the ideal family size of the parental family was more closely related to fertility behavior and plans in the second generation than was actual parental family size. In addition, the data revealed the hypothesized negative correlation between parental financial status and second generation fertility behavior and plans. Several mechanisms which could produce the correlation between parental characteristics and the fertility of their children are explored.The analysis reported in this paper was supported by Contract NO1-HD-42856 from the National Institute for Child Health and Human Development, Center for Population Research. Dr. Thornton is affiliated with the Survey Research Center, Institute for Social Research, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI 48106. Requests for reprints should be directed to him.     

Social time preference revisited

The article reconsiders the implications of the choice of pure social time preference for intergenerational equity in the presence of a time-consistent utilitarian social welfare criterion. The analytic framework is a setting with overlapping generations, lifetime uncertainty, population growth and technical progress. The analysis identifies upper and lower bounds for the feasible range of social discount rates and draws a corresponding distinction between “gerontocratic” and “Stalinist” optimal plans. The paper corrects a number of inaccurate propositions in a related earlier contribution by Marini and Scaramozzino (2000) to this journal.

The wealth of nations revisited: Income and quality of life

Does economic prosperity enhance the quality of human life? Across 101 nations, 32 indices were analyzed that reflect a representative sample of universal human values (e.g., happiness, social order, and social justice). Wealth correlated significantly with 26 of the 32 indices, indicating a higher QOL in wealthier nations. Only suicide and CO₂ emissions were worse in wealthier societies. Basic physical needs were met early in economic development, whereas advanced scientific work occurred only when basic physical needs were fulfilled for almost all people in the society. Limitations of the conclusions are discussed.     

Who takes care of the children? The quantity-quality model revisited

We study the Becker and Lewis (1973) quantity-quality model of children adding an explicit child care time constraint for parents. Parents can take care of the children themselves or purchase day care. Our results are: (i) If there only is own care, a quantity-quality trade-off, different from that of Becker and Lewis (1973), arises. The income effect on fertility is positive if child quantity is a closer complement than child quality to the consumption of goods. (ii) If, instead, there is a combination of purchased and own care, the effect of income on fertility is ambiguous, even if quantity of children is a normal good in the standard sense. This is the Becker and Lewis (1973) result extended to a situation with a binding child care time constraint. The conclusion is that the Becker and Lewis (1973) result holds as long as at least some child care is purchased. Received: 12 November 1999/Accepted: 1 September 2000     

Male labor force participation revisited

This paper evaluates hypotheses which incorporate designated socioeconomic variables and male age specific incidences of labor force participation. Salient independent variables include education, net migration, unemployment, and earnings. The multiple regression method of analysis is utilized with 100 Standard Metropolitan Statistical Areas comprising the basic units of a cross-sectional analysis. Regression results generally substantiate hypotheses and concur with the findings of previous investigators. But, in contrast to earlier studies, education and net migration emerge as leading determinants of areal labor force patterns; and regression results for men in central age groups are impressive both in terms of the frequency of statistically significant relationships and size of coefficients of determination. These departures from the results of past research are possibly due to the implementation of a more meaningful and rigorous methodology.     

The kindness of strangers revisited: a comparison of 24 US cities

Three field studies compared helping behavior across a sample of 24 small, medium and large cities across the United States. The relationship of helping to statistics reflecting the demographic, social, and economic characteristics of these communities was then examined. The strongest predictors of city differences in helping were population size, population density, economic purchasing power and, to a somewhat lesser extent, walking speed. Changes in several community variables over the past decade were also associated with helping: population size, economic well-being as measured by both purchasing power and poverty rates, and crime rates. These data were compared to similar data collected 13–15 years ago.     

The size-density hypothesis in Great Britain: Analysis of a deviant case

Recent studies have found size of territorial units to vary inversely with population density, the only exception to this regularity being Great Britain, where size and density were found to be unrelated. The present research accounts for this anomaly by demonstrating Britain's historical conformity to the size-density relation. The size-density hypothesis is further supported by direct test, made possible by a recent reorganization of british counties. Results show that reorganization has restored the expected inverse relation between size and density and has restructured the size and density of counties in a manner precisely specified by underlying theory.     

The future of sex mortality differentials in industrialized countries: A structural hypothesis

This paper advances the hypothesis that the future of sex mortality differentials in industrialized countries may depend on the future mortality rates of blue collar men. Data are presented to support the argument that mortality rates from ischemic heart disease for this population subgroup play a significant role in current differentials and, furthermore, that sexsocial class-mortality differentials correspond to social structural differences in protection against and/or exposure to health risks. Research and policy implications of this argument are addressed briefly.The views expressed in this paper are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the policy or views of the World Health Organization.     

The educational enrollment of immigrant youth: a test of the segmented-assimilation hypothesis

An analysis of 1990 census data on the educational enrollment of 15- to 17-year-old immigrants to the United States provides partial support for predictions from both the segmented-assimilation hypothesis and the immigrant optimism hypothesis. Most immigrant adolescents, especially from Asia, are as likely as their native-born peers to be enrolled in high school, or more so. The "at-risk" immigrant youths with above-average levels of nonenrollment that are not reduced with longer exposure to American society are primarily of Hispanic Caribbean origins (from Puerto Rico, the Dominican Republic, and Cuba). Recent Mexican immigrants who arrived as teenagers have nonenrollment rates over 40%, but Mexican youths who arrived at younger ages are only somewhat less likely to be enrolled in school than are native-born Americans.     

The effects of infant mortality on fertility revisited: new evidence from latin america

In this paper, we examine empirical evidence for a relation between infant and child mortality and fertility in Latin American countries from 1920 to 1990. We investigate the relation at several levels of aggregation and evaluate the extent to which evidence at one level is consistent with evidence at other levels. We first examine aggregate cross-country information over several decades, a type of data typically used in past research on the topic. We also examine yearly series of births, deaths, infant deaths, and socioeconomic indicators for selected countries to track the association between short-term fluctuations in fertility and infant mortality. Finally, we use micro-level data from the Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) to assess the relation between fertility and child mortality from individual reproductive histories. The evidence we assemble from these different data sets is remarkably consistent and suggests small positive effects of infant mortality on fertility. These effects, however, may be too small to support the hypothesis that changes in child mortality are of more than modest importance in the process of fertility decline in Latin America in the late twentieth century.     

Female employment and fertility in peninsular Malaysia: The maternal role incompatibility hypothesis reconsidered

Multivariate analysis of the 1974 Malaysian Fertility and Family Survey tests the hypothesis that an inverse relationship between women’s work and fertility occurs only when there are serious conflicts between working and caring for children. The results are only partly consistent with the hypothesis and suggest that normative conflicts between working and mothering affect the employment-fertility relationship in Malaysia more than spacio-temporal conflicts do. The lack of consistent evidence for the hypothesis, as well as some conceptual problems, lead us to propose an alternative framework for understanding variation in the employment-fertility relationship, both in Malaysia and elsewhere. This framework incorporates ideas from the role incompatibility hypothesis but views the employment-fertility relationship as dependent not just on role conflicts but more generally on the structure of the household’s socioeconomic opportunities.     

The Easterlin hypothesis in the recent experience of higher-income OECD countries: A panel-data approach

The Easterlin hypothesis emphasizes the effect of relative cohort size on fertility. Models based on the Easterlin hypothesis have performed well in explaining time series fertility data, although these results have been for long historical time series and have typically been restricted to single country studies. These models are not adequate to determine if the hypothesis still holds and if the success of the Easterlin hypothesis is an artifact of the time period chosen. We use panel data analysis and temporal causality tests to see of the Easterlin hypothesis holds for higher-income OECD countries. The results support the Easterlin hypothesis.All correspondence to Yongil Jeon. An earlier version, The Easterlin hypothesis in OECD countries, was presented at the annual conference of the European society for population economics, Bilbao, Spain, June 2002. We are grateful to two anonymous referees for their helpful comments. The usual caveat applies. Responsible editor: Junsen Zhang.