A simple equation for estimating the expectation of life at old ages

Abstract There is much direct and indirect evidence that in a number of populations the ages of older persons tend to be exaggerated, both when reported in censuses and in records of deaths. This results in overestimated expectations of life at old ages. The bias may be corrected by estimating the expectation of life at age a, e(a), from the mortality rate and growth rate at age a and above, M(a+) and r(a+), using the equation developed in this paper: 1/ê(a) = M(a+) exp (β . r(a+). M(a+)(-α)). For a ?, 65, α = 1.4 and β = 0.0951 have been chosen. The value of the equation rests on the following: since ages of older persons tend to be exaggerated, there may be an age a such that most age transfer occurs above that age, and age transfer across the age is small or cancels, so that reasonably accurate values of M(a+) and r(a +) can be obtained, even though ages are badly reported above a. The analysis of artificial data on Gompertzian stable popultions aged over 50 and actual statistics for some selected populations has suggested that the equation provides quite accurate estimates of e(a). The equation also seems useful in closing life tables, since it provides a value of e(a) for the highest age group.     

CharacteriStics and utilization of midwives in a selected rural area of East Pakistan

The purpose of this study was to obtain information about the utilization of midwives (dais) by village women and to learn more about the characteristics and practices of those dais. Two interview schedules were prepared. The first was used to interview 632 village women to determine who performed or assisted with their last two deliveries. The second was used to obtain information from 21 dais.The results of the first phase may be summarized as follows: (a) 38 per cent of the women were delivered by relatives; (b) 33 per cent of the women delivered their own children; (c) 14 per cent were delivered by neighbors; (d) 6 per cent were delivered by dais; (e) 2 percent were delivered in hospitals; and (f) the remaining 7 per cent were accounted for by several minor categories.The results of the interviews with dais are summarized as follows: (a) they are mainly widows and older women; (b) they have no formal training; (c) they work for friends, neighbors, and relatives and receive a sari as compensation; (d) they cannot handle complicated deliveries; (e) they deliver 3-4 children a year; (f) their sterilizing procedures depend upon soap, water, and folk beliefs; (g) most think midwifery is a worthwhile service; (h) about one-half have a general understanding of the reproduction process; (i) most do not know how to prevent conception; and (j) about half think that it is a good idea to participate actively in a family planning program.     

Seeking Help From Health and Welfare Services Among Elderly Single Women

The current research is a pilot study that included 87 single women who responded to an announcement placed in one of the national newspapers and then filled out interview questionnaires. The study hypothesized three groups of variables for predicting elderly single women's appeals for help from health and welfare services: (a) demographic variables, (b) intrapersonal variables, and (c) interpersonal variables. The research tools were (a) a demographics questionnaire constructed specifically for this study; (b) a personal assessment of single life: chosen or unchosen, including a question regarding what single people think about bachelorhood/spinsterhood; (c) an approach to the institution of bachelorhood/spinsterhood; (d) self-evaluation questionnaire; (e) a sense of mastery over life questionnaire; (f) informal support networks questionnaire; and (g) an assessment of the appeal to health and welfare services for help. A special questionnaire was constructed, which included a list of health and welfare services. The research findings indicate connections among all the research variables. All the research hypotheses were confirmed. Special attention should be given to this one tenth and more of the elder population. It might improve the lives of those women and save Western governments a lot of money.     

A framework for the study of migration destination selection

This article raises a number of issues that have generally not been addressed in previous studies of migration destination selection. Destination selection is seen as the result of two processes; (1) the sorting among a relatively large number of potential destinations over a lifetime, and (2) the selection among a relatively few (usually one or two) places at the time of the migration decision. Decision rules may differ in the two processes. The actual selection of a destination is based on place utilities derived from a combination of factors including: economic and noneconomic; micro (those attributes unique to one place); and macro (those applicable to larger geographic areas).     

Persistence of a fig wasp population and evolution of dioecy in figs: a simulation study

The relationship between fig trees and their pollinator wasps is a well-known example of species-specific obligate mutualism. In this article we present a stochastic model of this mutualistic system, referring to data on a dioecious fig (Ficus schwarzii) in Borneo, and examine the conditions for the persistence of a wasp population for a given period. (1) When the average duration of the flowering interval of fig trees is short, even a small fig population can sustain a wasp population successfully. A population whose average period of flowering cycle is half that of another population can sustain a wasp population with a number of trees less than half of the other population. (2) The wasp survival rate (WSR) is higher when (a) the variation of the interval periods of fig flowering is smaller, (b) the fig population size is larger, and (c) figs can prolong their receptivity to wait for a wasp if no wasps are available. (3) WSR is predictable from the average proportion of the fig's receptive phases, in which wasps are available, to their total receptive phases. (4) The persistence period of a wasp population increases exponentially with the number of fig trees. Based on these results we propose a new hypothesis, as a possible scenario, on the evolution of dioecy from monoecy in Ficus. Received: November 13, 1998 / Accepted: July 14, 1999     

A comparison of different survey techniques for obtaining vital data in A developing country

This article presents estimates of the sources and the extent of observation errors in different questionnaires and methods used to collect birth and death data in the 1961-63 multi-purpose sample survey of Morocco.The questionnaires used in the analysis of the three survey rounds were a list of household members (Rounds1 and 2) and a roll-call (Round3); retrospective death (Rounds1, 2, and 3) and birth (Round 3) queries; a date-of-birth tabulation (Round 2); and a household check-sheet to explain differences between Rounds 1 and 2. All available questionnaires for a given household were brought together and collated to provide several sources of information on births and deaths and a basis for assessing errors.From this analysis, the survey attempted to define the nature and to estimate the frequency of the errors which would have occurred if more restricted types of survey design had been used. Results, based on the period between Rounds 1 and 2, led to three major conclusions.First, if vital data had been collected with a single-round retrospective procedure, gross error (over enumeration plus underenumeration) would have been 17 percent for births and 36 percent for deaths. There is a net error of overenumeration of 3 percent for births (1.4 per1,000population) and 9 percent for deaths (2.3 per1,000population).Second, if two rounds were available to permit a combination of household composition follow-up and a retrospective mortality questionnaire, overenumeration would be almost entirely eliminated and underenumeration would be noticeably reduced. Third, most of the remaining errors of underestimation may be attributed to (1) an estimated number of infants born and deceased between two rounds and missed by all questionnaires, (2) matching failures caused by the absence of adults at Round 1, and (3) matching errors.     

An Investigation of Measures of Modern and Old-Fashioned Sexism

Working from the Principle of Beneficence we make the case that there is a need for adequate measures of sexism in men and women. Swim, Aikin, Hall and Hunter (1995) suggest that modern sexism represents a constellation of beliefs in which individuals: (a) disavow women's present-day discrimination; (b) reject women's demands for political and economic power; and (c) disapprove of policies designed to promote gender equality. To assess this construct, Swim et al. (1995) developed the Modern Sexism Scale (MSS), and to date, few studies have assessed its reliability and factor structure. Using data from 187 Canadian participants, confirmatory factor analysis was used to assess the unidimensionality of the MSS and Swim and associates' (1995) Old-Fashioned Sexism Scale (OFSS). Results do not support Swim et al.'s conceptualization of modern sexism as a unidimensional construct; however, the OFSS fit a unidimensional model. The implications of these findings are discussed.     

Measuring Human Development: A Multi-criteria Approach

In 2010 the Human Development Index (HDI) was revised with several major changes. Many of its problems were tackled, although some drawbacks still persist. This paper proposes a multi-criteria approach to measure human development, propounding two innovations for the computation of the HDI: (1) the introduction of a double reference point scheme in the normalization; (2) an aggregation function which deals with the problem of substitutability between components. In particular, for each component of the HDI the value of each country is normalized by means of two reference values (aspiration and reservation values) by using an achievement scalarizing function that is piecewise linear. Aggregating the new normalized values, we calculate a range of indices with different degrees of substitutability: (1) a weak index that allows total substitutability; (2) a strong index that measures the state of the worst component and allows no substitutability; and (3) a mixed index that is a combination of the first two.     

Toward an index of gender equality

This paper develops a Gender Equality Index (GEI) that is modelled in its thinking and implementation on the Consumer Price Index (CPI). The GEI was computed using annual Ontario data on seven socioeconomic indicators for the years 1975 to 1984. The analysis supports the following conclusions: (1) that it is possible to indentify a subset of indicators that have face validity as measures of relative gender equality; (2) that factor analysis is a useful means for evaluating the construct validity of gender equality; (3) that the resulting GEI reveals a strong upward trend toward gender equality in the latter half of the 1970's and the early 1980's and (4) that this trend has flattened in 1984.     

Disparities in Physical Health Conditions Among Lesbian and Bisexual Women: A Systematic Review of Population-Based Studies

We conducted a systematic review to assess evidence for disparities for lesbian and bisexual women (i.e., sexual minority women [SMW]) in comparison with heterosexual women across a range of nine physical health conditions. Among the k = 11 studies meeting eligibility criteria, almost every comparison (i.e., heterosexual vs. (a) lesbian, (b) bisexual, or (c) both lesbian and bisexual women) was in a direction indicating SMW disparities. Despite limited power due to small samples of SMW, we found evidence of disparities as indicated by a statistically significant adjusted odds ratios for asthma (5 of 7 comparisons), obesity (8 of 12), arthritis (2 of 3), global ratings of physical health (4 of 7), and cardiovascular disease (1 of 1). Evidence was lacking for cancer (1 of 4), diabetes and hypertension (both 1 of 5), and high cholesterol (0 of 3). Future work should confirm findings in more diverse, larger samples and should examine potential explanatory factors.     

Childhood family structure and young adult behaviors

This paper examines a wide variety of forms, and full histories, of family structure to test existing theories of family influences and identify needs for new theories. The focus is on links between childhood family structure and both completed schooling and risk of a nonmarital birth. Using a 27-year span of panel (PSID) data for U.S. children, we find that: (a) change is stressful, (b) timing during childhood is relevant, (c) adults other than parents are important, and (d) two more recently studied family structures (mother-with-grandparent(s) and mother-with-stepfather) do not fit the molds of existing theories. The findings suggest that new theories should consider allocation of resources and reasons people group into family structures. Received: 11 September 1998/Accepted: 27 March 2000     

Mental Health of Transgender People in Hong Kong: A Community-Driven,Large-Scale Quantitative Study Documenting Demographics and Correlates of Quality of Life and Suicidality

A community-driven survey of 106 transgender people (the first such survey in Hong Kong) showed that: (1) more than half the sample (50.9%) had a university degree or higher qualification; (2) despite this, 43.4% had a monthly income below HK$6,000 (about USD$775); (3) 66% reported “fair” or “poor” quality of life; (4) 67% of the sample (87.1% of respondents aged 15–24 years) had contemplated suicide; and (5) 20.8% of the sample (35.5% of respondents aged 15–24 years) had attempted suicide. It was found that (1) those who were single, had a lower monthly income, and identified as transgender women reported lower quality of life; and (2) those who were younger and on a lower income expressed higher suicidality. The findings suggest that service providers and policy makers urgently need to address the mental health needs of transgender people, particular younger transgender people.     

Age structure of six populations of old-field mice,Peromyscus polionotus

Summary An accurate age-estimating technique, based on biochemical changes in eye lens protein, was used to study age structures of six populations of the old-field mouse,Peromyscus polionotus. A new mathematical procedure permitted quantitative comparisons of these populations. Four inland populations had essentially the same median ages (75–84 days), maximum ages (248–297 days) and relative production rates (56–58% of the surviving population had been born in the 100 days prior to sampling). Approximately 50% of the females were old enough to have weaned a litter. One inland population had a lower median age (49 days), a lower maximum age (181 days) and a higher relative production rate (73%). Relatively fewer females (38%) could have weaned a litter. The single beach population was also different, with higher median age (180 days), and lower relative production rate (2%). All females were old enough to have weaned a litter. Maximum age was essentially the same as for the four similar, inland populations. Factors which may have contributed to observed differences in these populations are discussed.     

Differences between previously married and never married 'gay' men: family background, childhood experiences and current attitudes

Despite a large body of literature on the development of sexual orientation, little is known about why some gay men have been (or remain) married to a woman. In the current study, a self-selected sample of 43 never married gay men ('never married') and 26 gay men who were married to a woman ('previously married') completed a self-report questionnaire. Hypotheses were based on five possible explanations for gay men's marriages: (a) differences in sexual orientation (i.e., bisexuality); (b) internalized homophobia; (c) religious intolerance; (d) confusion created because of childhood/adolescent sexual experiences; and/or (e) poor psychological adjustment. Previously married described their families' religious beliefs as more fundamentalist than never married. No differences were found between married' and never married' ratings of their sexual orientation and identity, and levels of homophobia and self-depreciation. Family adaptability and family cohesion and the degree to which respondents reported having experienced child maltreatment did not distinguish between previously married and never married. The results highlight how little is understood of the reasons why gay men marry, and the need to develop an adequate theoretical model.     

The spillover effects of population aging, international capital flows, and welfare

This paper considers how a rise in old-age survival probability in a country with a higher old-age dependency ratio (the home country) influences the welfare of a country with a lower old-age dependency ratio (the foreign country). In a dynamically efficient steady-state equilibrium, we show that the old-age survival probability in the home country, when relatively low (high), has a positive (negative) effect on the welfare of the foreign country. We also show that the reform of a social security program in the home country may improve not only domestic welfare but also the welfare of the foreign country.     

Age patterns of marriage

Abstract In different populations there is a common curve describing first-marriage frequency (first marriages per woman) as a function of age for each cohort. To fit the variety of patterns of human nuptiality it suffices to choose the age that serves as origin for a standard curve of first-marriage frequency, and to choose appropriate horizontal and vertical scales for the curve. The prevalence of a standard form for first-marriage frequency implies that the proportion ever-married in any cohort also rises along a standard curve, subject to choice of origin (the earliest age of first marriage), vertical scale (the proportion ever-marrying by the end of life), and horizontal scale (the pace at which the proportion ever-married increases with age). A mathematical expression (a double exponential) is found to fit the risk offirst marriage (among those who ever marry), and some of the implications of uniform features of nuptiality in different populations are discussed.     

The population debate: A survey of opinions of a professional organization's membership

In analyzing results of a survey concerning population issues taken among members of an organization devoted to the scientific study of population, namely, the Population Association of America, we found high agreement that: (1) world population growth was much too high, (2) many of today's serious problems are caused by overpopulation, and (3) the U.S. should help any requesting country establish programs to curtail growth. There was no consensus, however, on issues such as: (1) ideal population size, (2) family planning as the most reasonable means of reducing population growth, (3) the need to initiate coercive birth control immediately, (4) redistribution of resources as a long-term solution to overpopulation, (5) how to solve population problems in time to avoid widespread catastrophe, and (6) whether the U.S. should exert pressure on other countries to establish a family planning program as a prerequisite to economic aid. These findings apply with few exceptions to four subcategories of members defined on the basis of extent of demographic training and employment.