基于社会资本理论的农民信任状况及培育研究

基于对1 273个农民的调查,从社会资本理论视角实证分析农民信任的影响因素及其培育对策。因子分析和均值分析发现:农民的信任程度可以分为特殊信任、一般信任和制度信任,农民的信任状况呈现出特殊信任水平高、制度信任水平居中、一般信任水平低的格局;回归分析发现:农民的特殊信任取决于社会网络和互惠状况,一般信任和制度信任受制于社团参与和互惠状况。为此,政府可通过强化正式制度的形塑作用,发展农村民间组织和恢复农村传统互惠规范等方式,以培育农民的信任程度。     

组织沟通、人际信任对工作投入影响的机理研究

从组织沟通入手,研究正式和非正式沟通对工作投入的影响,并提出人际信任在组织沟通与工作投入关系间起中介作用。216份数据的实证分析表明,正式沟通显著影响人际信任。非正式沟通显著影响情感信任,对能力信任的影响不显著。人际信任在正式沟通与工作投入关系间起完全中介作用,但在非正式沟通与结果变量间的中介作用未得到验证。研究发现,当加入人际信任变量后,非正式沟通和工作投入的负向关系由不显著变为显著负向相关。     

村民政治参与、民主观念与政府信任

基于2009—2011年"中国乡镇民主与治理调查"数据,探讨了中国村民对四级政府的信任状况,并运用Logistic模型重点研究了村民政治参与和民主观念对政府信任的影响。研究发现:村民对国家、省级、县级、乡镇四级政府的信任感依次下降。村民正式的政治参与对四级政府信任均呈现显著的正向影响,即参与过投票选举的村民对四级政府的信任感越强,这也证实了国内外的大多数研究;非正式的政治参与对国家和省级政府的信任也均呈现显著的正向关系,说明谈论国家大事或政治话题的村民更相信国家和省级政府;民主观念对国家政府的信任有显著的正向影响,但是对县级、乡镇政府的信任有显著的负向影响,即民主观念较强的人对基层政府越不信任。     

因子分析在中学生人际信任分析中的应用

文章运用多元分析的方法,利用社会科学与数理统计的相关理论,对在成都市几所中学所做的484份人际信任问卷进行相关分析,研究了当前成都市中学生人际信任状况,认为同学们自我认同的亲疏关系是影响成都市中学生人际信任的重要因素,并就此提出了相关建议及对策。     

商店环境刺激对消费者信任及购买意愿的影响研究——情绪反应的视角

从消费者情绪反应视角探讨商店环境刺激对消费者信任及购买意愿的影响机制和过程。实证研究发现：氛围因子和社会因子对消费者的愉悦和唤起情绪有显著影响,设计因子只对消费者的愉悦情绪有显著影响。愉悦情绪不仅直接影响消费者的购买意愿,而且通过消费者信任对购买意愿产生间接影响;唤起情绪只通过消费者信任对购买意愿产生间接影响;同时,消费者特征（性别、年龄和购物动机）对商店环境刺激与消费者情绪反应以及情绪反应与消费者信任与购买意愿的关系有调节作用。     

大学生陌生人信任度结构与现状研究

大学生陌生人信任度的研究对引导大学生形成正确的陌生人信任观有重要意义。采用文献分析、问卷调查以及统计分析法对大学生陌生人信任度结构与现状进行了实证研究。结果显示:1.大学生陌生人信任度由风险控制度、助人倾向度、人性乐观度、社会认可度、损失接受度五个因素构成。2.大学生陌生人信任度及各因素的现状均属中等水平,由高到低依次为助人倾向度、人性乐观度、风险控制度、损失接受度、社会认可度。3.男女大学生陌生人信任度得分无显著差异(p>0.05),而不同年级、专业、生源地以及是否独生的大学生在陌生人信任度总问卷或各维度上得分均存在显著差异(p<0.05)。针对大学生陌生人信任度现状,从社会诚信制度构建、教育体制改革以及大学生人格塑造三方面提出了相关对策。     

商场购物环境、顾客感知价值与企业竞争优势关系研究

基于对415名消费者的随机抽样调研数据,从理论和实证两方面研究了商场购物环境、顾客感知价值及零售企业竞争优势间的相互关系。研究表明,购物环境以顾客信任和购物体验价值为中介变量,正向影响企业竞争优势的获得,且购物环境中的氛围因素、社会因素正向影响顾客体验价值;顾客信任受氛围因素、社会因素、设计因素和体验价值等显著正向影响;体验价值和顾客信任显著正向影响企业竞争优势的获得。     

消费者在C2C交易中的信任模型与数据检验

为了探究个体消费者怎样在C2C交易中形成对个体卖方的信任,提出了消费者的信任结构方程模型,并通过情景泛义模拟实验采集的数据进行检验。文章得出：消费者的感知网站质量是最主要因素,信任机制至关重要,C2C平台市场比个体卖方作用更大,声誉的影响强于规模,买卖方的交互比较关键等结论。     

Measuring people's trust

Summary. We measure trust and trustworthiness in British society with a newly designed experiment using real monetary rewards and a sample of the British population. The study also asks the typical survey question that aims to measure trust, showing that it does not predict 'trust' as measured in the experiment. Overall, about 40% of people were willing to trust a stranger in our experiment, and their trust was rewarded half of the time. Analysis of variation in the trust behaviour in our survey suggests that trusting is more likely if people are older, their financial situation is either 'comfortable' or 'difficult' compared with 'doing alright' or 'just getting by', they are a homeowner or they are divorced, separated or never married compared with those who are married or cohabiting. Trustworthiness also is more likely among subjects who are divorced or separated relative to those who are married or cohabiting, and less likely among subjects who perceive their financial situation as 'just getting by' or 'difficult'. We also analyse the effect of attitudes towards risks on trust.     

银企关系与企业间商业信用：来自日本的经验证据

摘　　要:本文通过对日本银企关系影响企业间商业信用的作用机制进行实证检验,发现与银行关系密切的企业提供的商业信用多,而使用的商业信用少。结果显示,1990年代中后期,日本主银行制度在形式上发生了一定的变化,但是银企关系对商业信用的影响却并没有减弱。研究表明,日本企业间商业信用的提供和使用,表现为主银行制度下银企关系作用的进一步延伸。因此,建立有中国特色的新型银企关系,将有助于促进我国商业信用体系的大力发展。     

信任危机、逆向选择与品牌重建——来自网贷之家的经验证据

以中国P2P行业信任危机为背景,借助网贷之家公布的数据,利用面板固定效应模型研究信任缺失情形下的逆向选择问题以及政府和行业协会重建品牌信任的效果,结果表明:P2P行业信任危机下的平台旨在通过建设品牌形象来吸引投资人与借款人的做法是徒劳的,信任缺失导致合规平台的诚信经营并不为公众所认可,长此以往这些平台很可能会退出市场,进而引发逆向选择问题;自上而下的制度建设在重建品牌信任中取得了可喜的成绩,有效缓解并逆转了P2P行业的逆向选择问题,且市场整治初见成效。此研究成果对于目前正在进行的P2P行业整顿具有十分现实的指导意义。     

Computational schema on ridge analysis

The purpose of this paper is to revisit the response surface technique ridge analysis within the context of the “trust region” problem in numerical analysis. It is found that these two approaches inherently solve the same problem. We introduce the computational difficulty, termed the “hard case”, which originates in the trust region methods, also exists in ridge analysis but has never been formally discussed in response surface methodology (RSM). The dual response global optimization algorithm (DRSALG) based on the trust region method is applied (with a certain modification) to solving the ridge analysis problem. Some numerical comparisons against a general-purpose nonlinear optimization algorithm are illustrated in terms of examples appearing in the literature     

C2C环境下信用服务对卖家售出行为的影响研究——基于二元logistic模型

电子商务交易环境下,采用信誉反馈体系、中介保障服务、第三方支付担保等信用服务会减少买卖双方的信息不对称,增加卖方商品的售出概率,促进双方达成交易.通过对淘宝网三星Galaxy Note手机的交易数据进行二元logistic模型检验,发现好评率和信誉分数对于售出概率具有显著的正向作用,商品售价和运费对于售出概率有显著的负向作用,七天退换等保障服务对于售出概率存在一定的显著正向影响.     

Local and marginal control charts applied to methicillin resistant Staphylococcus aureus bacteraemia reports in UK acute National Health Service trusts

Summary.  We consider the general problem of simultaneously monitoring multiple series of counts, applied in this case to methicillin resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) reports in 173 UK National Health Service acute trusts. Both within-trust changes from baseline ('local monitors') and overall divergence from the bulk of trusts ('relative monitors') are considered. After standardizing for type of trust and overall trend, a transformation to approximate normality is adopted and empirical Bayes shrinkage methods are used for estimating an appropriate baseline for each trust. Shewhart, exponentially weighted moving average and cumulative sum charts are then set up for both local and relative monitors: the current state of each is summarized by a p -value, which is processed by a signalling procedure that controls the false discovery rate. The performance of these methods is illustrated by using 4.5 years of MRSA data, and the appropriate use of such methods in practice is discussed.     

营销渠道中合同详尽性对角色外利他行为的影响——信任与投机的中介作用

以营销渠道行为理论为基础,探讨合同详尽性对经销商角色外利他行为的影响,并提出了信任与投机行为在合同详尽性与角色外利他行为关系间起中介作用。以中国家电行业经销商为调研对象,运用多元回归分析方法对660份有效问卷进行分析,研究结果表明:合同详尽性对经销商角色外利他行为具有显著的正向影响,经销商信任、供应商投机行为在合同详尽性与角色外利他行为之间起到部分中介作用。     

农户分化、关系契约治理与病虫害防治外包绩效——基于山东省520个菜农的实证分析!

基于山东省520个菜农的调研数据,运用熵值法对菜农生计资产产值进行测算,进而构建菜农病虫害防治外包绩效模型,以生计资产类型为调节变量进行多群组分析。研究发现,菜农间人力资产产值的差异表现最为明显,故依据人力资产将菜农划分为匮乏型、普通型和充裕型;信任和信息交流是影响菜农病虫害防治外包绩效的关键因素,而合作灵活性未通过显著性检验;信任对匮乏型和普通型菜农产生显著正向影响,但对充裕型菜农的影响并不显著;信息交流对三种类型菜农均产生显著正向影响;合作灵活性对充裕型菜农产生显著正向影响,而对普通型、匮乏型菜农未产生显著影响。因此,政府在制定"增信任、促交流"的外包推广政策时,还应充分考虑到异质性农户的现实需求。     

The New Statistics for Better Science: Ask How Much,How Uncertain,and What Else Is Known

Abstract

The “New Statistics” emphasizes effect sizes, confidence intervals, meta-analysis, and the use of Open Science practices. We present three specific ways in which a New Statistics approach can help improve scientific practice: by reducing overconfidence in small samples, by reducing confirmation bias, and by fostering more cautious judgments of consistency. We illustrate these points through consideration of the literature on oxytocin and human trust, a research area that typifies some of the endemic problems that arise with poor statistical practice.     

Polynomial trends in time series

The J^* test which was previously proposed by the present author for the detection of a trend in a time series does not depend on any quantitative assumptions, but in the case of a polynomial trend it depends on its degree; if this degree is too high, the test cannot be applied. The author finds a bound of the significance level at which the test can be applied when the sample size, as well as a bound of the degree of the trend, are given. Asymptotic results are used only when we trust the asymptotic distribution of J^* under the null hypothesis.     

消费者焦虑、怀旧倾向与消费决策关系研究

当今中国社会正处于重大变迁阶段,社会经济结构调整、升级和转型加快使得社会不确定性、生活节奏、社会竞争、工作压力等日趋增强,面对社会出现的变故、威胁、压力等现象,消费者内心形成各种焦虑,为了缓解焦虑感,消费者往往会通过怀旧消费达到目的。以某一类消费行为(捐赠)作为研究对象,分析中国慈善捐赠者如何因社会发生重大变迁而通过怀旧消费行为来缓解所引起的焦虑感,并运用计量方法对消费者焦虑感、怀旧倾向与怀旧消费行为间的关系进行实证分析。结果表明:不安全感、经历、孤独、伤痛感等是消费者焦虑感的主要影响因素;消费者焦虑感与怀旧倾向呈正相关;怀旧倾向对怀旧消费行为强度呈正相关;怀旧强度与捐赠者对慈善组织的信任呈现正相关;消费者行为承诺与其怀旧消费意愿呈正相关。     

How not to fund hospital and community health services in England

Summary.  The paper focuses on the hospital and community health service component of the current formula for the target allocation of annual 'weighted capitation' funding of England's 304 primary care trusts—a formula that responds to political pressure to tackle continuing health inequalities. The history of allocation formulae for the National Health Service is briefly reviewed, before exposing the composition and provenance of the hospital and community health service component. Under the heading 'Logical and statistical deficiencies' we consider various frameworks, model misspecification, allowance for age, ins and outs of supply, unmet need and wrong signs, and replicability and robustness—questions that are relevant to trust in the current formula based on the regression of age-standardized current utilization on a multiplicity of socioeconomic variables. We conclude that it might be better to put future resources into developing direct, rather than proxy, measurement of health needs.