Current and past roles of the statistician in space applications

The paper contains a brief and informal history of space science topics which led to statistical consulting. The past and current roles of the statistician in space science is discussed and this special issue is prefaced by describing generally the contents of the issue. Several statistical problems associated with the space scientists’ efforts to develop instrumentation and space vehicles for both manned and unmanned space missions are discussed as well as those problems associated with developing a space laboratory. The current tasks of developing remote sensors to make earth observations for monitoring earth resources and the associated statistical problems are also discussed. These latter activities are those that have motivated this special issue.     

数据科学的统计学内涵

数据科学以大数据为研究对象,而大数据对统计分析最直接的冲击莫过于数据收集方式的变革,同时统计分析的视野也不再局限于传统的属性数据,而是包括了关系数据、非结构、半结构数据等其他类型更丰富的数据。伴随着数据开放运动,数据库之间的关联信息的价值逐步得到体现。基于统计学的视角分别从科学理论基础、计算机处理技术和商业应用等三个维度研究了数据科学的统计学内涵,探讨了数据科学范式对统计分析过程的直接影响,以及统计学视角面临的机遇与挑战。     

统计工程与21世纪统计教育的思考

21世纪是世界各国进行高科技战略决战的世纪。信息技术是核心,统计技术的工程化将给21世纪的科技发展提供技术高科技。20世纪中期,6-δ的统计管理技术将日本带入了经济发达大国。21世纪初,中国能否应用统计工程技术也能进入世界发达国家的行列?文章旨在统计工程化的技术分析中为统计知识体系创新提出了个人的理解,并对统计工程与未来科技发展的关系,特别是21世纪的统计教育提出了新的见解。     

历次全国中青年统计科学研讨会的考察与认知

 本文以求实的态度，对历次全国中青年统计科学研讨会进行了详细的回顾与考察，并根据会议的主题和研究成果，分析了中国统计科学在不同发展阶段的具体情况。在此基础上，对中青年统计科学研讨会的发展过程进行了深层思考和认知，进一步明确了中青年统计工作者的发展方向，及面临的挑战。     

The World of Research Has Gone Berserk: Modeling the Consequences of Requiring “Greater Statistical Stringency” for Scientific Publication

ABSTRACT

In response to growing concern about the reliability and reproducibility of published science, researchers have proposed adopting measures of “greater statistical stringency,” including suggestions to require larger sample sizes and to lower the highly criticized “p?<?0.05” significance threshold. While pros and cons are vigorously debated, there has been little to no modeling of how adopting these measures might affect what type of science is published. In this article, we develop a novel optimality model that, given current incentives to publish, predicts a researcher’s most rational use of resources in terms of the number of studies to undertake, the statistical power to devote to each study, and the desirable prestudy odds to pursue. We then develop a methodology that allows one to estimate the reliability of published research by considering a distribution of preferred research strategies. Using this approach, we investigate the merits of adopting measures of “greater statistical stringency” with the goal of informing the ongoing debate.     

Estimators of contingent probabilities and means with actuarial applications

Contingent probabilities and means are ubiquitous in actuarial science. The correct interpretation of contingent probabilities and means as well as the probability theory behind them have been addressed by researchers. In this article, we explore their statistical aspect. We give non-parametric estimators of contingent probabilities and means. Then, we show that our estimators are strongly consistent. Moreover, we give the asymptotic distributions of our estimators. Finally, we provide several examples to demonstrate the applications of these estimators in actuarial science.     

宏观统计数据质量评估的研究范畴与基本范式

 内容提要：不断推进宏观统计数据质量评估研究的体系化和规范化,是该领域学术价值存续和有效信息揭示的必由出路。本文旨在解决其中的两方面关键问题：一是界定宏观统计数据质量评估的研究范畴,藉此明晰数据质量评估研究的概念结构、方法原理、理论基础和功能边界;二是探讨对各种宏观统计数据质量评估方法的适用性进行检验的可行方法,以确保评估研究可以给出较为可靠的结论。进而明确宏观统计数据质量评估研究的基本范式,探讨研究中应遵循的一系列操作规则。     

A review of parallel processing for statistical computation

Parallel computers differ from conventional serial computers in that they can, in a variety of ways, perform more than one operation at a time. Parallel processing, the application of parallel computers, has been successfully utilized in many fields of science and technology. The purpose of this paper is to review efforts to use parallel processing for statistical computing. We present some technical background, followed by a review of the literature that relates parallel computing to statistics. The review material focuses explicitly on statistical methods and applications, rather than on conventional mathematical techniques. Thus, most of the review material is drawn from statistics publications. We conclude by discussing the nature of the review material and considering some possibilities for the future.     

从诺贝尔经济学奖看计量经济学的发展

文章认为从诺贝尔经济学奖得主的工作可以看出经济科学的发展趋势:即日益朝着用数学表达经济内容和统计定量的方向———计量经济学发展。     

Why is Getting Rid of P-Values So Hard? Musings on Science and Statistics

ABSTRACT

The current concerns about reproducibility have focused attention on proper use of statistics across the sciences. This gives statisticians an extraordinary opportunity to change what are widely regarded as statistical practices detrimental to the cause of good science. However, how that should be done is enormously complex, made more difficult by the balkanization of research methods and statistical traditions across scientific subdisciplines. Working within those sciences while also allying with science reform movements—operating simultaneously on the micro and macro levels—are the key to making lasting change in applied science.     

Biostatistics:a difficult road ahead

We are now well into the nineteen-eighties and looking back over the last ten years one of the most striking, perhaps the most striking, aspect of biostatistics and statistical epidemiology is sheer volume of literature that has emerged. Any historian of our subject is bound to ask two major and not unrelated questions! how much of this was necessary and how much of it was of direct use to clinical science in the sense of giving real aid to progress in medicine?.     

Extrapolation and confounding in accelerated material degradation and failure studies

The fundamental difficulty with inference in nontrivial extrapolation where model selection is involved from a rich space of models is that any model estimated in one regime used for decision making in another is fundamentally confounded with disruptive alternatives. These are alternative models which if true would support a diametrically opposed action from the one the estimated model supports. One strategy to support extrapolation and reduce arbitrary fitting and confounding is to force the model to derive from the same mathematical structure that underlies the substantive science appropriate for the phenomena. Then statistical model fitting follows the form of theory generation in artificial intelligence, with statistical model selection tools and the statistician taking the place of the inference engine.     

A review of cancer screening evaluation techniques, with some particular examples in breast cancer screening

Summary.  The instigation of mass screening for breast cancer has, over the last three decades, raised various statistical issues and led to the development of new statistical approaches. Initially, the design of screening trials was the main focus of research but, as the evidence in favour of population-based screening programmes mounts, a variety of other applications have also been identified. These include administrative and quality control tasks, for monitoring routine screening services, as well as epidemiological modelling of incidence and mortality. We review the commonly used methods of cancer screening evaluation, highlight some current issues in breast screening and, using examples from randomized trials and established screening programmes, illustrate the role that statistical science has played in the development of clinical research in this field.     

从市场实现看应用统计方法研究的桥梁作用

 台湾统计学者谢邦昌教授曾经有过这样的认识：任何领域都有其上中下游，统计也不例外。但统计的上游中，一些功力高强的学者不见得愿意帮助中下游解决问题，而中下游又感觉上游遥不可及，不敢把问题高告诉上游，觉得上游的理论太过高深。于是统计的上中下游出现了断层，影响了统计的发展（参见《统计的出世观与入世观》，《中国统计》1999年第二期）。对此我深有同感。这里先对统计做一个层次划分，然后从需求和供给两个方面对其进行分析，以期促进统计研究中的学科定位和工作定位。     

《统计研究》之统计研究——《统计研究》创刊三十周年回眸和展望

《统计研究》作为我国统计学界的权威学术刊物,自创刊之日起,一直不遗余力地促进着统计学科的发展,为统计科学的研究和交流提供了良好的平台,记录了经济统计和数理统计研究的发展轨迹,记载了统计学科成长、发展和壮大的历史,造就了一大批统计学术精英。30年来,《统计研究》共刊载文章4640篇,涉及统计学研究的各个领域,加快了与其他学科的融合,参与成果发表的作者单位遍布国内外,提升了《统计研究》的国际影响力;《统计研究》各项期刊科学指标发展态势良好,其质量和影响力在统计类刊物中一路领先,在经济类权威刊物中,也在起步较晚的情况下稳步发展,取得了长足的进步,在权威刊物中占据一席之地。《统计研究》应乘势而上,借助统计学成为一级学科之势,将其建成国家一级期刊。     

Opportunities and challenges for industrial statisticians

The last 20 years have seen significant advances in the use of statistical methodology in industry, with applications in new product design and development, optimization and control of manufacturing processes, and in the service industries. The field of industrial statistics has emerged as an important branch of statistical science that focuses on this application environment. Yet as applications of statistics in industry have expanded, creating many new opportunities for the modern industrial statistician, many new challenges have arisen. Some of these challenges are technical, while others have managerial and organizational aspects. There are also important concerns pertaining to training and education. This presentation focuses on some of these issues, and identifies some potential solutions.     

Opportunities and challenges for industrial statisticians

The last 20 years have seen significant advances in the use of statistical methodology in industry, with applications in new product design and development, optimization and control of manufacturing processes, and in the service industries. The field of industrial statistics has emerged as an important branch of statistical science that focuses on this application environment. Yet as applications of statistics in industry have expanded, creating many new opportunities for the modern industrial statistician, many new challenges have arisen. Some of these challenges are technical, while others have managerial and organizational aspects. There are also important concerns pertaining to training and education. This presentation focuses on some of these issues, and identifies some potential solutions.     

Small Sample Tests for Shape Parameters of Gamma Distributions

The introduction of shape parameters into statistical distributions provided flexible models that produced better fit to experimental data. The Weibull and gamma families are prime examples wherein shape parameters produce more reliable statistical models than standard exponential models in lifetime studies. In the presence of many independent gamma populations, one may test equality (or homogeneity) of shape parameters. In this article, we develop two tests for testing shape parameters of gamma distributions using chi-square distributions, stochastic majorization, and Schur convexity. The first one tests hypotheses on the shape parameter of a single gamma distribution. We numerically examine the performance of this test and find that it controls Type I error rate for small samples. To compare shape parameters of a set of independent gamma populations, we develop a test that is unbiased in the sense of Schur convexity. These tests are motivated by the need to have simple, easy to use tests and accurate procedures in case of small samples. We illustrate the new tests using three real datasets taken from engineering and environmental science. In addition, we investigate the Bayes’ factor in this context and conclude that for small samples, the frequentist approach performs better than the Bayesian approach.