Population Projections and Demographic Knowledge in France and Great Britain in the Postwar Period

This study examines how official national population projections—a key mechanism for the production and dissemination of demographic knowledge—contributed to differing interpretations of population and fertility trends in France and Great Britain in the decades following World War II, despite these countries' similar fertility rates during most of this period. Projections presented different visions of the demographic future in the two countries. In France, publication of multiple variants emphasized future contingency, with low variants illustrating future population decline due to prolonged below‐replacement fertility. In Britain, publication of a single variant, assuming near‐replacement‐level fertility rates, projected moderate growth. National population projections thus created divergent representations of the two countries' demographic futures: an ever‐present threat of population decline in France, and a reassuring image of stability in Britain. Two principal mechanisms that contributed to cross‐national differences in population projections—national demographic history and institutional configurations—are discussed.     

Family allowances statistics in Great Britain

The Family Allowances Scheme In Great Britain covers all families with more than one child and Is the only current source of statistics giving the dates of birth of each child in the family. The main deficiencies of these statistics from the point of view of demographic analysis are the exclusion from the family of children who have left school or apprenticeship or who are over age 18, and the absence of any particulars about the parents, e.g. the mother's age or date of marriage. Comparison of the dates available, however, with the total numbers of children In the population throws some light on recent changes In family composition in Great Britain.     

Family influences on family size preferences

Several studies have demonstrated important effects of parents’ childbearing behavior on their children’s childbearing preferences and behavior. The study described here advances our understanding of these family influences by expanding the theoretical model to include parental preferences, siblings’ behavior, and changes in children’s preferences through early adulthood. Using intergenerational panel data from mothers and their children, we test the effects of both mothers’ preferences for their own fertility and mothers’ preferences for their children’s fertility. Although both types of maternal preferences influence children’s childbearing preferences, mothers’ preferences for their children’s behavior have the stronger and more proximate effects. Mothers’ preferences continue to influence their children’s preferences through early adulthood; siblings’ fertility is an additional determinant of children’s family size preferences.     

Economic and cultural influences on the decision to leave home in Peninsular Malaysia

Although the departure of children from the parental home is an important life-cycle event, few studies have investigated nest-leaving in developing countries. Using retrospective data from the Second Malaysian Family Life Survey, we estimate hazard models of nest-leaving in Peninsular Malaysia. We find that the departure of children, especially sons, responds to economic incentives, including housing costs, family businesses, education, and economic growth, and that ethnic differences in nest-leaving are important. We also find that the median age of departure from home has declined sharply over the past 40 years, a period of rapid social and economic change in Malaysia.     

Feathered nest/gilded cage: Parental income and leaving home in the transition to adulthood

The growing study of leaving home in young adulthood in the United States has been hampered by data and measurement problems, which are producing a major theoretical confusion about the role of parental resources in influencing young adults’ leaving home. Does high parental income retain young adults in the home or subsidize their leaving (and parental privacy)? This paper uses the 1984 panel of Survey of Income and Program Participation to clarify this issue, and shows that the effects of parental resources differ depending on the route out of the home under consideration (marriage or premarital residential independence). Effects change substantially over the nest-leaving ages, but relatively few differences are found between young men and young women.     

The Relevance of the 'Easterlin hypothesis' and the 'new home economics' to fertility movements in Great Britain

Summary The hypothesis that a family's economic status relative to its aspirations (relative economic status) is an important determinant of its fertility behaviour has been developed and applied to the explanation of swings in American fertility by R. A. Easterlin. However, a recent application by Butz and Ward of a model derived from the 'new home economics' (pioneered by Becker and Mincer) strongly suggests that relative economic status is not the dominant factor in explaining fertility movements in the U.S.A. Rather, both current men's and women's wages operate independently in explaining the movement in fertility, and in particular the decline in fertility is attributed to rising women's wages. In this paper we explore the relevance of both the Easterlin hypothesis and the hypotheses derived from the 'new home economics' to the 1955-75 fertility swing in Great Britain. We find that we must reject the Easterlin hypothesis on the basis of the measures of relative economic status suggested by Easterlin and Wachter. A variant of the Easterlin hypothesis suggested by Oppenheimer does receive some support from the available evidence, and the evidence provides strong support for the model of fertility behaviour derived from the 'new home economics', which emphasizes the distinction between the effects of changes in men's and women's real wages on fertility decisions. The cause of the fertility decline is attributed to rising women's wages and employment opportunities through their direct effect on the opportunity cost of time and children among working wives and through their effect on the labour force participation of married women of childbearing age. The test of this model and the estimates of its parameters are not definitive, however, because of deficiencies in the data and problems of statistical estimation. We nevertheless conclude that both this model and the Oppenheimer variant of the Easterlin hypothesis, as well as other elements of a more comprehensive economic theory of fertility, point to a continuation of low fertility and the possibility of a secular decline with fertility approaching some lower asymptote.     

Transnational Grannies: The Changing Family Responsibilities of Elderly African Caribbean-Born Women Resident in Britain

This paper explores the role and position of grandmothers in African-Caribbean families resident in Britain. The data used for this paper comes fromm a sample of 180 life-history interviews collected in 1995–1996 from three generations of Caribbean-origin people living in Britain and the Caribbean. Findings from this research suggest that African-Caribbean grandmothers resident in Britain have come to play a less active role within their immediate family compared to earlier historical periods. At the same time however, these grandmothers have come to take on a more a transnational emissary role for their family and kin located throughout North America and Europe. Caribbean-born grandmothers appear to be using more modern means for fulfilling certain traditional tasks like child shifting, story telling or acting as a social safety net. Using their agency African Caribbean-born grandmothers have been able to carve out new niches for themselves despite changes in family structure brought about by migration and settlement patterns in Britain.     

Internal migration age patterns and the transition to adulthood: Australia and Great Britain compared

Life-course transitions are important drivers of mobility, resulting in a concentration of migration at young adult ages. While there is increasing evidence of cross-national variations in the ages at which young adults move, the relative importance of various key life-course transitions in shaping these differences remains poorly understood. Prior studies typically focus on a single country and examine the influence of a single transition on migration, independently from other life-course events. To better understand the determinants of cross-national variations in migration ages, this paper analyses for Australia and Great Britain the joint influence of five key life-course transitions on migration: (1) higher education entry, (2) labour force entry, (3) partnering, (4) marriage and (5) family formation. We first characterise the age profile of short- and long-distance migration and the age profile of life-course transitions. We then use event-history analysis to establish the relative importance of each life-course transitions on migration. Our results show that the age structure and the relative importance of life-course transitions vary across countries, shaping differences in migration age patterns. In Great Britain, the strong association of migration with multiple transitions explains the concentration of migration at young adult ages, which is further amplified by the age-concentration and alignment of multiple transitions at similar ages. By contrast in Australia a weaker influence of life-course transitions on migration, combined with a dispersion of entry into higher education across a wide age range, contribute to a protracted migration age profile. Comparison by distance moved reveals further differences in the mix of transitions driving migration in each country, confirming the impact of the life-course in shaping migration age patterns.     

Regional differences in the sociodemographic determinants of environmental concern

This study assesses the influence of sociodemographic variables on four distinct measures of environmental concern in a sample of 2,984 households in 19 metropolitan areas of the United States. In addition, the potential for regional interactions is investigated. Results of the study indicate that, while geographic region does not appear to have consistent additive effects, it does interact with other sociodemographic variables to influence environmental concern. These regional interactions draw attention to many of the problems involved with comparisons across studies and may shed light on what are often considered to be discrepant findings in the literature on environmental concern.     

Family leave policies and women's retention after childbirth: Evidence from the United States, Britain, and Japan

This paper uses labour force survey data to examine the employment rates and employment decisions of women with young children in the United States, Britain and Japan. Our results confirm that young children have a very strong negative effect on women's employment; this effect is most pronounced in Britain. We then take advantage of panel data to investigate the effects of family leave coverage on women's job retention after childbirth. We find that family leave coverage increases the likelihood that a woman will return to her employer after childbirth in all three countries, with a particularly marked effect in Japan. This result suggests that the recent expansions in family leave coverage in the sample countries are likely to lead to increased employment of women after childbirth. Received: 10 July 1997/Accepted: 8 June 1998     

Family limitation and the fertility transition: Evidence from the age patterns of fertility in Europe and Asia

Summary The age patterns of marital fertility levels and decline in modern Asia and historical Europe are analysed in order to answer two questions: (1) How closely do the age patterns of marital fertility in both areas prior to a systematic fertility decline conform to the age pattern of natural fertility? (2) How similar are the age patterns of the fertility transition experienced in Europe in the past, and the age pattern of fertility decline now under way in a number of Asian populations? The answers have important implications for our understanding of the fertility transition. They suggest that modern family limitation (i.e. parity-specific fertility control) was largely absent prior to a secular decline in marital fertility in both Europe and Asia. Furthermore, the evidence indicates that once the practice of family limitation starts to spread among the broader strata of the population, it seems almost inevitably to increase until it becomes a common behavioural norm. In this respect, the modern fertility transition appears to result from the spread of innovative behaviour and cannot be viewed simply as an adjustment to new socio-economic circumstances based on previously established behavioural mechanisms.     

90年代俄罗斯家庭结构和单亲家庭状况分析

进入２０世纪９０年代,伴随着俄罗斯经济的变更,以姻亲关系为基础的家庭结构出现了松散化的趋势,离婚人数和单亲家庭剧增。导致单亲家庭增长的主要原因是两性行为和生育行为的变化,传统和积淀的变化。此种现象已引起了俄罗斯学者和社会的广泛重视。     

Cohort size and earnings in Great Britain

Numerous studies in the United States have confirmed that individuals born into large cohorts, ceteris paribus, tend to have lower earnings on entry into the labour force compared to individuals born into small cohorts. On the other hand, only limited attention has been directed towards exploring the relationship between cohort size and earnings in other nations. This paper examines empirically the relationship between cohort size and male earnings in Great Britain. The data used is a time-series of cross-sections (1973–1982) constructed from theGeneral Household Survey. Some support for the hypothesis that large cohorts have depressed earnings is found. However, this effect does not persist as the cohort ages.     

农村独生子女家庭养老保障的弱势地位与对策研究——来自山东农村的调查

利用来自山东省农村的调查数据,比较农村独生子女户父母和非独生子女户父母养老需求满足程度的差异。研究发现,相对于农村非独生子女户,农村独生子女户在家庭经济状况、子女经济供养、日常照料等方面存在明显弱势。应进一步完善农村计划生育家庭养老保障制度,注意处理"普惠"与"优抚"的关系,积极探索独生子女户老人集中供养制度,整合农村集体资源,弥补家庭养老能力不足,用足现有生育政策减少未来独生子女家庭数量规模。     

对农村计划生育家庭投入机制与产出效益的理性认识

计划生育投入是指为满足控制人口增长、提高人口素质所需要的投入的各种要素的总和 ,从计划生育的投入到家庭效益的产出是个有机联系的过程 ,这种效益集中体现在 :促进了农村育龄人群生育意愿和生育行为的转变 ;为切实解决农业、农民、农村问题提供了有力支持 ;从整体上提高了计划生育户的家庭消费水平。我国农村计划生育投入还存在低效误区 ,今后要抓好计划生育投入机制的转换 ,逐步形成具有中国特色的计划生育投入体系     

家庭养老需求与家庭养老功能弱化的张力及其弥合

人口老龄化是当前中国社会所面临的重要挑战之一。一方面,老年人的特征和人性本能共同决定了人们对家庭养老需求十分强烈;另一方面,家庭结构变迁和人们生活方式的变化导致家庭养老功能逐步弱化。两者之间的张力造就了当前中国社会所特有的家庭养老困境。如何弥合二者之间的张力需要建构家庭和社会联动性的居家养老模式,应发挥各方优势,整合资源,破解家庭养老困境。     

广东家庭户规模与家庭生命周期变化特点

本文分析广东省家庭户的规模和结构变化 ,以及广东家庭生命周期的形成、扩展、稳定、收缩、空巢和解体等六个阶段的新特点。这些变化和特点将对广东的经济发展产生深远的影响。