The Persistence of Outmoded Contraceptive Regimes: The Cases of Mexico and Brazil

Two of the most striking characteristics of contraceptive practice in the world today are the wide variation in patterns of use across countries and the tendency of the distribution of use by method to persist or narrow, even as new methods become available. The argument advanced in this article is that the disposition to commit to a reduced range of methods results from positive feedback in the process of contraceptive choice, and follows the logic of path dependence. The positive feedback derives, in large part, from social interaction among both the providers and the users of contraceptive methods. The persistence of outmoded contraceptive regimes is illustrated with the experience of Mexico and Brazil. In each case, it is argued that the conditions, events, and policies in the early stage of the adoption process have had a determinant bearing on the contraceptive practice prevailing in the late 1990s.     

Using Indicators of Multiple Deprivation to Demonstrate the Spatial Legacy of Apartheid in South Africa

This paper presents a spatial analysis of multiple deprivation in South Africa and demonstrates that the most deprived areas in the country are located in the rural former homeland areas. The analysis is undertaken using the datazone level South African Index of Multiple Deprivation which was constructed from the 2001 Census. Datazones are a new statistical geography designed especially for this Index using techniques developed in the United Kingdom. They are smaller in population size than wards, enabling fine-grained spatial analysis of deprivation across the whole of South Africa. The spatial scale used is the smallest to be used in a developing country to date. Levels of deprivation are compared between former homeland areas as a whole, the rest of South Africa and a case-study township, as well as between each former homeland. Individual dimensions of deprivation and an overall composite measure are presented. Municipality-level analysis shows that this spatial pattern of multiple deprivation continued to persist in 2007, demonstrating the ongoing spatial legacy of apartheid.     

Decision-Making Patterns and Contraceptive Use: Evidence from Uganda

Literature on the effect of decision-making patterns on contraceptive use often does not (1) distinguish between women participating in decisions and controlling them, and (2) account for effects of common decision-making patterns within the community. In Uganda where high fertility persists, both of these factors may be relevant to adoption of contraception. We used data from the 1995/96 Negotiating Reproductive Outcomes (NRO) Study which surveyed 1,750 women in 78 communities located in two districts in Uganda. We assessed the effects of individual and community factors on the adoption of modern contraceptive methods using multilevel logistic regression. We included measures of decision-making patterns at both the individual and community levels that distinguished husband-dominated, joint, and wife-dominated decision-making patterns. Contraceptive use is 29% more likely in communities where women more commonly have unilateral control over household decisions. This strong effect of normative decision-making patterns within the community is net of individual education and community education, both of which had strong and significant effects. Less traditional gender roles as measured by normative decision-making patterns seem to support more innovative fertility behavior. Community decision-making patterns matter importantly for contraceptive use in this low contraceptive prevalence setting and need to be assessed elsewhere. Further, women’s influence is inadequately measured where joint decision-making and wife-dominated decision-making are considered together.     

Contraceptive use patterns across teens’ sexual relationships: The role of relationships,partners, and sexual histories

By using data from the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent Health, we examine how adolescent relationship characteristics, partner attributes, and sexual relationship histories are associated with contraceptive use and consistency, incorporating random effects to control for respondent-level unobserved heterogeneity. Analyses show that teens' contraceptive use patterns vary across relationships. Teens with more-homogamous partners, with more-intimate relationships, and who communicate about contraception before sex have greater odds of contraceptive use and/or consistency. Teens in romantic relationships, and who are older when engaging in sex for the first time, have greater odds of ever using contraceptives but reduced odds of always using contraceptives. Teens continue habits from previous relationships: teens with experience practicing contraceptive consistency and females who previously have used hormonal contraceptive methods are better able to maintain consistency in subsequent relationships. Also, relationship and partner characteristics are less important for females who previously used hormonal methods.     

The contribution of HIV to fertility decline in rural Zimbabwe, 1985-2000

HIV-related sub-fertility has been reported for those populations in sub-Saharan Africa in which contraceptive use is low. We use data from a retrospective survey in rural Zimbabwe and multivariate logistic regression models to show that recent birth rates and current pregnancy rates are also lower among HIV-positive women than among HIV-negative women in those African populations where contraceptive use is high. The fertility reduction is smaller than where contraceptive use is low because age at first sexual intercourse is later and birth rates at older ages are already low. Nevertheless, total fertility is approximately 8.5 per cent lower and HIV-associated sub-fertility may account for as much as one-quarter of fertility decline in Zimbabwe since the late 1980s. Mechanisms for HIV-associated sub-fertility in rural Zimbabwe include more frequent widowhood and divorce, reduced coital frequency, increased amenorrhoea, and possibly, pelvic inflammatory disease. Miscarriage appears to be a less important factor than elsewhere possibly because syphilis is rare.     

Exploring Child Mortality Risks Associated with Diverse Patterns of Maternal Migration in Haiti

Internal migration is a salient dimension of adulthood in Haiti, particularly among women. Despite the high prevalence of migration in Haiti, it remains unknown whether Haitian women’s diverse patterns of migration influence their children’s health and survival. In this paper, we introduce the concept of lateral (i.e., rural-to-rural, urban-to-urban) versus nonlateral (i.e., rural-to-urban, urban-to-rural) migration to describe how some patterns of mothers’ internal migration may be associated with particularly high mortality among children. We use the 2006 Haitian Demographic and Health Survey to estimate a series of discrete-time hazard models among 7,409 rural children and 3,864 urban children. We find that compared with their peers with nonmigrant mothers, children born to lateral migrants generally experience lower mortality, whereas those born to nonlateral migrants generally experience higher mortality. Although there are important distinctions across Haiti’s rural and urban contexts, these associations remain net of socioeconomic factors, suggesting they are not entirely attributable to migrant selection. Considering the timing of maternal migration uncovers even more variation in the child health implications of maternal migration; however, the results counter the standard disruption and adaptation perspective. Although future work is needed to identify the processes underlying the differential risk of child mortality across lateral versus nonlateral migrants, the study demonstrates that looking beyond rural-to-urban migration and considering the timing of maternal migration can provide a fuller, more complex understanding of migration’s association with child health.     

Why are uneducated women in India using contraception? A multilevel analysis

While women's education continues to be strongly associated with lower fertility in India, an important feature of India's current fertility transition is the spread of contraceptive use among uneducated women. Indeed, changes in their fertility are now making the major contribution to the country's overall fertility decline. We use multilevel statistical procedures to investigate the variation in contraceptive use among uneducated women across India. The analysis suggests that, while many of the expected socio-economic variables play their part, there are also considerable diffusion effects in progress, many of which operate at levels beyond the uneducated women's own individual circumstances. For example, we find significant relationships with others' use of contraception and others' education. Mass media exposure also emerges as an important diffusion channel. The multilevel analysis also reveals significant clustering of contraceptive use at different levels, much of which is accounted for by the variables included in the models.     

Effects of changes in rainfall and temperature on age- and sex-specific patterns of rural-urban migration in sub-Saharan Africa

We evaluate how changes in weather patterns affected rural-urban migration across 41 sub-Saharan African countries, by age and sex, over the 1980–2015 period. We combine recent age- and sex-specific estimates of net rural-urban migration with historical data on rainfall and temperature from the Climate Research Unit (CRU). We also compare standard unweighted estimates of rainfall and temperature to estimates weighted by the proportion of the country’s total rural population in the CRU grid. Results show that rural out-migration of young adults is the most sensitive to shifts in weather patterns, with lower rainfall, lower variability in rainfall, and higher temperatures increasing subsequent rural out-migration—though the last of these is not observed in weighted models. The strength of these effects has grown stronger over time for 20–24 year olds, though weaker above age 30. In contrast, increasing temperature variability is associated with a higher rural in-migration of children (0–9) and older adults (55–64). Gender differences in these effects are minimal and concentrated in areas which experienced heavy reductions in rainfall.

     

Child schooling and contraceptive use in rural Africa: A Ghanaian case study

In this study, I examine the contributions of childrens schooling to fertility decline in Africa. I use cross-sectional data collected in the late 1980s to look at how household child schooling patterns and community access to schools affect contraceptive use among rural Ghanaian women. My results indicate that the schooling of children is associated very strongly with increased use of modern and traditional contraceptive use and thereby suggest that educational policy has played a role in initiating and sustaining fertility decline in Ghana and possibly elsewhere in Africa.     

Temporal and spatial variation in age-specific net migration in the United States

As fertility differences in the United States diminish, population redistribution trends are increasingly dependent on migration. This research used newly developed county-level age-specific net migration estimates for the 1990s, supplemented with longitudinal age-specific migration data spanning the prior 40 years, to ascertain whether there are clear longitudinal trends in age-specific net migration and to determine if there is spatial clustering in the migration patterns. The analysis confirmed the continuation into the 1990s of distinct net migration "signature patterns" for most types of counties, although there was temporal variation in the overall volume of migration across the five decades. A spatial autocorrelation analysis revealed large, geographically contiguous regions of net in-migration (in particular, Florida and the Southwest) and geographically contiguous regions of net out-migration (the Great Plains, in particular) that persisted over time. Yet the patterns of spatial concentration and fragmentation over time in these migration data demonstrate the relevance of this "neighborhood" approach to understanding spatiotemporal change in migration.     

A Micro-Level Event-Centered Approach to Investigating Armed Conflict and Population Responses

In this article, we construct and test a micro-level event-centered approach to the study of armed conflict and behavioral responses in the general population. Event-centered approaches have been successfully used in the macro-political study of armed conflict but have not yet been adopted in micro-behavioral studies. The micro-level event-centered approach that we advocate here includes decomposition of a conflict into discrete political and violent events, examination of the mechanisms through which they affect behavior, and consideration of differential risks within the population. We focus on two mechanisms: instability and threat of harm. We test this approach empirically in the context of the recent decade-long armed conflict in Nepal, using detailed measurements of conflict-related events and a longitudinal study of first migration, first marriage, and first contraceptive use. Results demonstrate that different conflict-related events independently shaped migration, marriage, and childbearing and that they can simultaneously influence behaviors in opposing directions. We find that violent events increased migration, but political events slowed migration. Both violent and political events increased marriage and contraceptive use net of migration. Overall, this micro-level event-centered approach yields a significant advance for the study of how armed conflict affects civilian behavioral responses.     

Moving Across Boundaries: Migration in South Africa, 1950–2000

Existing knowledge about historical patterns of black internal migration in South Africa is incomplete, primarily because of the lack of good life course studies as well as the apartheid government’s suppression and censoring of data. This article provides a comprehensive picture of historical internal migration patterns with an analysis of a unique individual retrospective life history data set. This sample of the black population, collected in 2000, is the only known nationally representative life history data for South Africa; it includes all residential moves for each individual during his/her lifetime. Various mobility outcomes are analyzed: moves within/across provinces, moves within/across rural and urban areas, forced moves, moves with a nuclear family, and individual moves. The results indicate that migration significantly increased among black South Africans during the last half of the twentieth century, and that this increase began before the Pass Laws were repealed in 1986 and well before the official end of apartheid in 1991 or the first free election in 1994. The timing of this increase in migration rates suggests that migration in defiance of the Pass Laws (albeit a dangerous and desperate proposition) was a way of life for many black South Africans.     

Livin’ for the city: African American ethnogenesis and depression era migration

Urban ethnogenesis is a process by which a group creates and maintains social networks and communication patterns as the basis for institutional and communal life in urban areas. Ethnogenesis is a foundation upon which most historical, urbanward migrations have been built, including the “Great Migration” of African Americans during the first half of this century. Although a period of decreased migration, the Depression was marked by sizeable movement in which nearly 10% of the total African American population moved interregionally. Ethnogenic measures such as NAACP activism, the number of community newspapers directed at African Americans, and the longevity of a chapter of the National Urban League significantly increased migration flows.     

Internal migration age patterns and the transition to adulthood: Australia and Great Britain compared

Life-course transitions are important drivers of mobility, resulting in a concentration of migration at young adult ages. While there is increasing evidence of cross-national variations in the ages at which young adults move, the relative importance of various key life-course transitions in shaping these differences remains poorly understood. Prior studies typically focus on a single country and examine the influence of a single transition on migration, independently from other life-course events. To better understand the determinants of cross-national variations in migration ages, this paper analyses for Australia and Great Britain the joint influence of five key life-course transitions on migration: (1) higher education entry, (2) labour force entry, (3) partnering, (4) marriage and (5) family formation. We first characterise the age profile of short- and long-distance migration and the age profile of life-course transitions. We then use event-history analysis to establish the relative importance of each life-course transitions on migration. Our results show that the age structure and the relative importance of life-course transitions vary across countries, shaping differences in migration age patterns. In Great Britain, the strong association of migration with multiple transitions explains the concentration of migration at young adult ages, which is further amplified by the age-concentration and alignment of multiple transitions at similar ages. By contrast in Australia a weaker influence of life-course transitions on migration, combined with a dispersion of entry into higher education across a wide age range, contribute to a protracted migration age profile. Comparison by distance moved reveals further differences in the mix of transitions driving migration in each country, confirming the impact of the life-course in shaping migration age patterns.     

Contraceptive Method Choice Among Youth in the United States: The Importance of Relationship Context

We examine the relationship characteristics associated with contraceptive method choice within young people’s nonmarital sexual relationships, using data from retrospective relationship histories available in the third wave (2001–2002) of the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent Health. Data-reduction techniques produce a detailed multidimensional characterization of relationship commitment for nonmarital sexual relationships. We then use multilevel analysis to estimate associations between two key relationship characteristics—relationship commitment and couple heterogamy—and the type of contraceptive method used at last sexual intercourse within each relationship. Results indicate that for a given individual, contraceptive method choice varies across relationships as a function of these characteristics, even after we account for important individual and family characteristics and prior relationship experiences.     

The legacies of context: Past and present influences on contraceptive choice in Nang Rong,Thailand

This study explores the ways in which women's contraceptive behavior in a rural area of Thailand is shaped by both past and present context, based on the life course framework. Although the importance of contextual influences for contraceptive behavior is well established in the literature, relatively little research has been conducted that explores how behavior is influenced by historical and contemporaneous contextual factors and by individual life experiences. In addition, much of this research has neglected the role of the normative environment within which contraceptive use takes place. The focus of this paper centers on the effect of contraceptive environment at both early and late stages of the life course and on how this effect is shaped by individual experience with migration to urban areas. This study takes advantage of a unique, prospective longitudinal data set with detailed information on community context at multiple points in time, an important improvement upon prior research. The results show that contraceptive behavior is particularly responsive to current community context, with past context primarily exerting an indirect effect on behavior through shaping current contextual influences.     

Spatial variation in contraceptive use in Bangladesh: Looking Beyond the borders

This article promotes a more complete understanding of social change by analyzing spatial patterns of contraceptive use in Bangladesh and the contiguous state of West Bengal in India. Multilevel analyses that control for variations in individual- and household-level correlates show an important role for cross-border influences only in those districts that share a common language across the border. The districts that are positive outliers in contraception hug the Bangladesh-West Bengal border. A map of outliers shows that the positive outliers form a contiguous band in a manner suggestive of a role for contagion.     

Contraceptive Initiation Patterns in Thailand

Data from the Thailand Demographic and Health Survey permit a detailed examination of the pattern of contraceptive initiation in terms both of first post-marital contraceptive use and initiation of use following childbirth. A clear trend towards beginning contraception earlier in the family-building process over the course of the fertility transition is evident. During the earliest stage, contraception was first used mainly after a couple had already achieved their desired family size, but later on couples increasingly began use in order to space births, and most recently it has become common to begin use to delay the start of childbearing. There are two distinctive patterns of contraceptive initiation following childbirth. For women who chose sterilization, initiation occurs during the immediate post partum period, while for those who used other methods, use most commonly began shortly after the return of menses. As a result, few Thai women are at present unprotected against unplanned pregnancies for any substantial period of risk following childbirth. Beginning to use contraception early in the family-building process and rapid adoption of contraception following childbirth are now found in most segments of Thai society, testifying to the maturing of Tailand's fertility transition.     

Learning in social networks and contraceptive choice

A puzzling observation in the diffusion of modern fertility control is the persistent diversity in contraceptive practices across communities or social strata. I propose a model of “learning in social networks” to explain this diversity with the random dynamics of word-of-mouth communication. Women are uncertain about the merits of modern contraception and estimate the different qualities of available methods based on imprecise information from network partners. Their contraceptive choices are determined by this estimate and by private knowledge about one s personal characteristics. This process of social learning leads to path-dependent adoption of fertility control within, and diversity in contraceptive practices across villages or social strata.