意大利现代设计的文化性格浅析

意大利是拥有悠久的传统手工艺文化的国家,二战后的政治、经济、文化、艺术思潮对其现代设计的独特的文化性格有着深远的影响。意大利现代设计在尊重传统手工艺的前提下实现批量化生产,并具有更大的包容性和前瞻性,最终使意大利现代设计在当代设计与文化世界占有一席之地。     

Immigrant fertility in West Germany: Is there a socialization effect in transitions to second and third births?

In this paper on immigrant fertility in West Germany, we estimate the transition rates to second and third births, using intensity-regression models. The data come from the German Socio-Economic Panel Study. We distinguish women of the first and the second immigrant generations originating from Turkey, the former Yugoslavia, Greece, Italy, and Spain, and compare their fertility levels to those of West German women. In the theoretical framework, we discuss competing hypotheses on migrant fertility. The findings support mainly the socialization hypothesis: the transition rates of first-generation immigrants vary by country of origin, and the fertility patterns of migrant descendants resemble more closely those of West Germans than those of the first immigrant generation. In addition, the analyses show that fertility differentials between immigrants and women of the indigenous population can largely, though not in full, be explained by compositional differences.     

Does Citizenship Still Matter? Second Birth Risks of Migrants from Albania, Morocco, and Romania in Italy

In this article we investigate the propensities to have the second child in Italy for foreign women from Albania, Morocco, and Romania. Our study contributes to the international debate on migrant fertility by testing the main competing hypotheses present in literature, using the Italian case as an illustration. Italy is an important case study because it has been a country of immigration for only a few decades and because the literature on this topic was limited in Italy by the difficulties in obtaining proper longitudinal data. An important component of our work was therefore to build a new data set, using record linkage procedures that allow us to improve the information from Survey on Birth and Resident Permit Registers and to study the individual childbearing trajectories. Our results confirm the importance of the mother??s citizenship. The impact remains strong after controlling for the main demographic and migratory characteristics. We found that older cohorts experience a disruption effect but that a native Italian partner can promote an adaptation process such as a convergence in fertility behavior toward that of native Italian women.     

Mortality and population ageing

We are here trying to measure the impact of each element of the total fertility, mortality and migration history of the cohorts concerned on population structure change. Computations are done for both France and Italy on population ageing during the last 30 years as well as until the end of the official population projections around 2040. Though the ageing effect of fertility decrease is usually emphasized, we can see here that the consequences of mortality change are at least equally (and sometimes more) important. The case of the Italian projections is particularly fascinating. Even if the very low fertility level of 1.4 children per woman is maintained until the year 2040, more than half the increase in the proportion of the population aged 60 and over (from 21% to 43% for females) would be due to mortality change and slightly less to fertility change.     

Kinship patterns and household composition: Older unmarried Hungarian women, 1984

Household composition of older unmarried women in Hungary is analyzed using data from the 1984 microcensus. The principal determinants of household composition investigated are kin availability — the number of living children, siblings, and parents — health status, marital status, age, and income. A multinomial logit model distinguishing among five household types reveals that number of children, severe disabilities, age and income are all strongly related to household composition. Trends in fertility and mortality patterns suggest that kinship patterns will change in coming years; these results imply that household composition will, in turn, change as well.     

Predictive Intervals for Age-Specific Fertility

A multivariate ARIMA model is combined with a Gammacurve to predict confidence intervals for age-specificbirth rates by one-year age groups. The method isapplied to observed age-specific births in Norwaybetween 1900 and 1995, and predictive intervals arecomputed for each year up to 2050. The predictedtwo-thirds confidence intervals for Total Fertility(TF) around 2010 agree well with TF errors in oldpopulation forecasts made by Statistics Norway. Themethod gives useful predictions for age-specificfertility up to the years 2020–2030. For later years,the intervals become too wide. Methods which do nottake account of estimation errors in the ARIMA modelcoefficients underestimate the uncertainty for futureTF values. The findings suggest that the marginbetween high and low fertility variants in officialpopulation forecasts for many Western countries aretoo narrow.     

Italy’s Path to Very Low Fertility: The Adequacy of Economic and Second Demographic Transition Theories

The deep drop of the fertility rate in Italy to among the lowest in the world challenges contemporary theories of childbearing and family building. Among high-income countries, Italy was presumed to have characteristics of family values and female labor force participation that would favor higher fertility than its European neighbors to the north. We test competing economic and cultural explanations, drawing on new nationally representative, longitudinal data to examine first union, first birth, and second birth. Our event history analysis finds some support for economic determinants of family formation and fertility, but the clear importance of regional differences and of secularization suggests that such an explanation is at best incomplete and that cultural and ideational factors must be considered.     

Diverse Effects of Women’s Employment on Fertility: Insights From Italy and Poland

In this paper, we look into how country-specific factors shape the interrelationship between childbearing and women’s labor supply. To this end, we compare Italy and Poland, two low-fertility countries where the country-specific obstacles to work and family reconciliation are similarly strong but which differ in the history of women’s labor supply and the extent to which couples’ material aspirations are satisfied by men’s earnings. Our findings show that women’s employment clearly conflicts with childbearing in Italy, while in Poland women tend to combine the two activities, despite the similar difficulties they face. These results challenged the standard microeconomic explanations and point to the importance of other country-specific factors, apart from conditions for work and family reconciliation, in shaping women’s employment and fertility decisions, such as economic incentives or culturally rooted behavioral patterns. Overall, our study provides thus foundations for explaining the variation in the relationship between women’s employment and fertility in an enlarged Europe.     

Modelling step-families

A combined marco-micro model is applied to a population similar to that forecast for 2035 in the Netherlands in order to simulate the effect on kinship networks of a mating system of serial monogamy. The importance of incorporating a parameter for the degree of concentration of childbearing over the female population is emphasized. The inputs to the model are vectors of fertility rates by age of mother, and by age of father, a matrix of first-marriage rates by age of both partners (used in the macro-analytical expressions), and two parametersH andS (used in the micro-simulation phase). The output is a data base of hypothetical individuals, whose records contain identification number, age, sex, and the identification numbers of their relatives.     

Active Population Growth and Immigration Hypotheses in Western Europe

The paper examines, in respect of twelve Western European countries over a period of twenty years, the widely held view that any decline in their working population should be offset by greater reliance on immigrant labour.This research, based on demographic projections and forecasts regarding labour market participation rates by age and sex for each of the countries concerned, focuses on the two most likely scenarios. It appears that only Italy will be faced with a fall in its working population. All other western countries will either maintain the same level or, more generally, see their workforce grow substantially. Accordingly, we may safely assert that there is no risk of a shortage of workers between now and the year 2020, and that an increasing supply of labour will render reliance on a greater influx of immigrant workers unnecessary.The second part analyses changes in the structure of the demand for labour. We deal chiefly with the phenomenon of the concentration of foreign manpower in each sector, its flexibility and mobility in a context of unemployment, as well as the impact of new technologies and globalisation on the main determinants of international migration of labour.     

Family-Level Continuities in Childbearing in Low-Fertility Societies

A number of studies of populations in earlier generations haveshown that fertility patterns of parents and children arepositively correlated, although the relationship is frequentlydesignated as `weak'. Models that may be used to investigate theways in which patterns of demographic behaviour persist betweengenerations are considered. The principal frameworks used arefitting of simulation and multi-level models. The data sourcesutilised are the 1986 ISSP co-ordinated series of surveys onsocial networks, the country files for Italy, Norway and Polandfrom the UNECE co-ordinated FFS programme, and the US NationalSurvey of Families and Households which contains particularlyrich information on the experience of demographic events acrossdifferent generations. We find that the relationship betweenfertility of successive generations is becoming stronger withtime, and that it is now of a comparable order of magnitude towidely-used conventional covariates such as educational level. This intergenerational relationship cannot be explained bydifferential fertility across socio-economic groups. Reasons whythe strength of the relationship has been understated and theimplications of results from such analyses are discussed.     

Age-specific mortality trends in France and Italy since 1900: Period and cohort effects

Although France and Italy currently exhibit very similar expectations of life, their mortality patterns by age and sex are not the same. The differences were much greater at the beginning of the century than they are now. Graphical presentation of the data since 1900 by age, period and birth cohort is used to explore in detail the differences in trends and to bring out, in particular, differences between the two countries in period and cohort effects. In addition to providing more details on well-known period effects — the secular decline in mortality in both countries (with Italy largely ‘catching up’ with France), and the immediate effects of the world wars — similarities and differences in cohort effects are also apparent. The two countries exhibit clear differences not only in terms of immediate casualties of the wars, but also in terms of the long-term impact of unfavourable wartime living conditions on the cohorts most affected.     

Patterns in the delay and recovery of fertility in Europe

Using the information provided by the Council of Europe (2002), we analyse the final number of children over several cohorts in 20 European countries. We distinguish between children born before and after the age of 30. One obvious conclusion emerging from the analysis of the data is that the most recent cohorts have fewer children before the age of 30, and more after this age. However, this process of “ageing fertility” is not occurring in the same way across all European countries. Four clear patterns of reproduction can be discerned: Western, Central, Southern and Eastern. While in Western European countries, the fertility “lost” before the age of 30 is recovered afterwards, in the other areas this is not the case. Using the techniques of factor analysis, taking various socio-economic variables, we attempt to show the value of this distinction to study the differences in the strategies of delay and recovery of fertility in the different groups of countries.     

Choosing to Remain Childless? A Comparative Study of Fertility Intentions Among Women and Men in Italy and Britain

Pathways to childlessness may differ not only between individuals but also at the population level. This paper investigates differences in childlessness by comparing two countries—Britain and Italy—where levels of childlessness are high in comparison with many other European countries, but which have distinct fertility trajectories and family regimes. Using data from two large, representative national samples of women and men of reproductive age in a co-residential partnership, it presents a rich analysis of the characteristics associated with intended childlessness, net of the aspects associated with being childless at interview. Although childlessness intentions are generally comparable between men and women of the same age, results show a link between socio-economic disadvantage and childlessness for British men as well as the importance of men’s employment for childbearing decisions in Italy. These findings support the view that pathways into childlessness are gendered and highlight the importance of partnership context in the understanding of fertility intentions. Then, the level of childlessness at interview is comparable across the two countries. However, a higher proportion of respondents in Italy is only provisionally childless, whereas a larger proportion of British respondents intends to remain childless. Framing these differences in fertility intentions within the wider context of family and fertility regimes allows insight into the extent to which observed levels of lifetime childlessness at the population level might result from a specific combination of intended childlessness, postponed decisions leading to involuntary childlessness, or constraints affecting abilities to achieve intentions at the individual level.     

单独两孩政策下独生子女数量、结构变动趋势预测

基于2005年全国1%人口抽样调查资料及2010年“六普”特别汇总数据,对单独两孩政策下我国独生子女规模的测算方法、步骤、空间分布和年龄构成进行研究后发现：全国独生子女数量仍将持续增长,2050年将达到3.03亿人,但比原计划生育政策下将减少0.45亿人。独生子女的空间分布以城镇、东部地区较多,到2050年,城镇独生子女规模将达到2.70亿人,占独生子女的89.1%;独生子女省际分布差异大,到2050年,江苏、山东等12省区的独生子女存量在1 000万人以上,西藏、青海、海南则不到100万人。独生子女的年龄构成当前以40岁以下为主,到21世纪40年代中期转为40岁及以上中老年人为主,因此,应提前做好独生子女父母养老保障的应对工作。     

Ageing and social-security costs

Past experience and current arrangements regarding social programmes suggest that an ageing population will have a substantial impact on outlays on social-security schemes and hence on their financial situation. In this paper we take the view that the strong emphasis given in recent years to the demographic component in pension and health outlays is justified but at the same time exaggerated. The paper first shows that the demographic impact on past growth in expenditures in the OECD was small and that it was everywhere far outstripped by other factors. Moreover, linking projections of demographic trends up to 2050 with three scenarios for growth rates in real benefits and real earnings, shows that the effects of future ageing can be substantially eased (or exacerbated) by other factors that are, in principle, accessible to policy control. Consideration of several possible strategies suggests that a combination of several is necessary to ease the burden.     

Partner Choice and the Transition to Parenthood for Second-Generation Women of Turkish and Moroccan Origin in Belgium

Studies on fertility among second-generation migrant women across Europe have mainly treated the second generation as a rather homogenous group, not linking and distinguishing fertility patterns by type of partner. This study investigates how and to what extent the origin and generation of the partner (endogamous or exogamous as well as diversity in endogamy) of Turkish and Moroccan second-generation women in Belgium is related to first-birth rates. We distinguish three types of partnerships: those in an endogamous union with a first-generation partner, those in an endogamous union with a second-generation partner, and those in an exogenous union where the partner is of native Belgian origin. We use linked Census-Register data for the period 2001–2006. Applying event history models, our findings reveal clear differences between the endogamous and exogamous unions with respect to the timing of first births. Second-generation women of both origin groups have the lowest parenthood rates when the partner is of native Belgian origin. However, no variation is found within endogamous unions. For endogamous unions with a first-generation partner, the parenthood rates are approximately the same (and not higher, as was expected) compared to when the partner is also of second generation.     

Projecting age-specific fertility rates by using time-series methods

This paper discusses twostochastic time-series models developed recently for projecting age-specific fertility rates: the CARIMA model and the APC-ARIMA model. The forecasting performance of both models is examined using Dutch data. Alternatively, adeterministic time-series model is presented in which the age pattern of changes in the age-specific fertility rates between successive years is described by a cubic spline function. The model is capable of describing widely varying patterns. The model is applied to age-specific fertility rates for four countries: the Netherlands, England and Wales, Sweden and Australia.Cet article traite de deux modèles stochastiques qui utilisent des séries chronologiques: le modèle CARIMA et le modèle APC-ARIMA qui ont été développés récemment pour projeter les taux de fécondité par âge. La qualité des projections réalisées avec ces deux modèles est testée sur des données hollandaises. Simultanément, un modèle déterministe est présenté dans lequel les changements des taux de fécondité par âge entre années successives sont décrits par une fonction du troisième degré. Ce modèle est capable de décrire des situations qui varient dans un très large domaine. Il est appliqué aux taux de fécondité par âge de quatre pays: la Hollande, l'Angleterre et le Pays de Galles, la Suède et l'Australie.

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The views expressed in this paper are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the policies of the Netherlands Central Bureau of Statistics.     

The Total Marital Fertility Rate and Its Extensions

What we will call the age-based TMFR is computed conventionally by adding up age-specific marital fertility rates in the hope of estimating the number of children ever born to a woman who is married throughout her childbearing years. Demographers have long been strongly skeptical about this quantity because it normally indicates implausibly many children. Our analysis of data from the Romanian GGS confirms this finding, and we propose an alternative duration-based TMFR computed in the spirit of parity-progression ratios. At the same time, we extend the method to cover any type of living arrangement (cohabitation, marriage, non-partnered arrangement, and so on). Because each resulting total union-type fertility rate (TUFR) explicitly accounts for the living arrangement, it improves on the conventional total fertility rate (TFR), which does not. We embed the investigation in an event-history analysis with fixed and time-varying control covariates and find patterns of relative risks for such variables that reveal interesting features of childbearing behavior in the Romanian data, which we use to illustrate the method. In most cases, these patterns are quite robust against model re-specification, including the shift from the age-based to the duration-based approach. Since, the number of female respondents is ??only?? about 6,000 (minus records that cannot be used for the current purpose) in a normal single-round GGS, there is considerable inherent random variation in the data set, but we show that simple few-term moving average graduation suffices to overcome this problem.