Sparse Functional Principal Component Analysis via Regularized Basis Expansions and Its Application

This article introduces principal component analysis for multidimensional sparse functional data, utilizing Gaussian basis functions. Our multidimensional model is estimated by maximizing a penalized log-likelihood function, while previous mixed-type models were estimated by maximum likelihood methods for one-dimensional data. The penalized estimation performs well for our multidimensional model, while maximum likelihood methods yield unstable parameter estimates and some of the parameter estimates are infinite. Numerical experiments are conducted to investigate the effectiveness of our method for some types of missing data. The proposed method is applied to handwriting data, which consist of the XY coordinates values in handwritings.     

Classical testing in functional linear models

We extend four tests common in classical regression – Wald, score, likelihood ratio and F tests – to functional linear regression, for testing the null hypothesis, that there is no association between a scalar response and a functional covariate. Using functional principal component analysis, we re-express the functional linear model as a standard linear model, where the effect of the functional covariate can be approximated by a finite linear combination of the functional principal component scores. In this setting, we consider application of the four traditional tests. The proposed testing procedures are investigated theoretically for densely observed functional covariates when the number of principal components diverges. Using the theoretical distribution of the tests under the alternative hypothesis, we develop a procedure for sample size calculation in the context of functional linear regression. The four tests are further compared numerically for both densely and sparsely observed noisy functional data in simulation experiments and using two real data applications.     

Optimal estimation in functional linear regression for sparse noise‐contaminated data

In this article, we propose a novel approach to fit a functional linear regression in which both the response and the predictor are functions. We consider the case where the response and the predictor processes are both sparsely sampled at random time points and are contaminated with random errors. In addition, the random times are allowed to be different for the measurements of the predictor and the response functions. The aforementioned situation often occurs in longitudinal data settings. To estimate the covariance and the cross‐covariance functions, we use a regularization method over a reproducing kernel Hilbert space. The estimate of the cross‐covariance function is used to obtain estimates of the regression coefficient function and of the functional singular components. We derive the convergence rates of the proposed cross‐covariance, the regression coefficient, and the singular component function estimators. Furthermore, we show that, under some regularity conditions, the estimator of the coefficient function has a minimax optimal rate. We conduct a simulation study and demonstrate merits of the proposed method by comparing it to some other existing methods in the literature. We illustrate the method by an example of an application to a real‐world air quality dataset. The Canadian Journal of Statistics 47: 524–559; 2019 © 2019 Statistical Society of Canada     

Cross-validation approximation in functional linear regression

Cross-validation has been widely used in the context of statistical linear models and multivariate data analysis. Recently, technological advancements give possibility of collecting new types of data that are in the form of curves. Statistical procedures for analysing these data, which are of infinite dimension, have been provided by functional data analysis. In functional linear regression, using statistical smoothing, estimation of slope and intercept parameters is generally based on functional principal components analysis (FPCA), that allows for finite-dimensional analysis of the problem. The estimators of the slope and intercept parameters in this context, proposed by Hall and Hosseini-Nasab [On properties of functional principal components analysis, J. R. Stat. Soc. Ser. B: Stat. Methodol. 68 (2006), pp. 109–126], are based on FPCA, and depend on a smoothing parameter that can be chosen by cross-validation. The cross-validation criterion, given there, is time-consuming and hard to compute. In this work, we approximate this cross-validation criterion by such another criterion so that we can turn to a multivariate data analysis tool in some sense. Then, we evaluate its performance numerically. We also treat a real dataset, consisting of two variables; temperature and the amount of precipitation, and estimate the regression coefficients for the former variable in a model predicting the latter one.     

函数性数据的统计分析：思想、方法和应用

 摘　　要:实际中，越来越多的研究领域所收集到的样本观测数据具有函数性特征，这种函数性数据是融合时间序列和横截面两者的数据，有些甚是曲线或其他函数图像。虽然计量经济学近二十多年来发展的面板数据分析方法，具有很好的应用价值，但是面板数据只是函数性数据的一种特殊类型，且其分析方法太过于依赖模型的线性结构和假设条件等。本文基于函数性数据的普遍特征，介绍一种对其进行分析的全新方法，并率先使用该方法对经济函数性数据进行分析，拓展了函数性数据分析的应用范围。分析结果表明，函数性数据分析方法，较之计量经济学和其他统计方法具有更多的优越性，尤其能够揭示其他方法所不能揭示的数据特征     

Functional approach of flexibly modelling generalized longitudinal data and survival time

We propose a flexible functional approach for modelling generalized longitudinal data and survival time using principal components. In the proposed model the longitudinal observations can be continuous or categorical data, such as Gaussian, binomial or Poisson outcomes. We generalize the traditional joint models that treat categorical data as continuous data by using some transformations, such as CD4 counts. The proposed model is data-adaptive, which does not require pre-specified functional forms for longitudinal trajectories and automatically detects characteristic patterns. The longitudinal trajectories observed with measurement error or random error are represented by flexible basis functions through a possibly nonlinear link function, combining dimension reduction techniques resulting from functional principal component (FPC) analysis. The relationship between the longitudinal process and event history is assessed using a Cox regression model. Although the proposed model inherits the flexibility of non-parametric methods, the estimation procedure based on the EM algorithm is still parametric in computation, and thus simple and easy to implement. The computation is simplified by dimension reduction for random coefficients or FPC scores. An iterative selection procedure based on Akaike information criterion (AIC) is proposed to choose the tuning parameters, such as the knots of spline basis and the number of FPCs, so that appropriate degree of smoothness and fluctuation can be addressed. The effectiveness of the proposed approach is illustrated through a simulation study, followed by an application to longitudinal CD4 counts and survival data which were collected in a recent clinical trial to compare the efficiency and safety of two antiretroviral drugs.     

基于函数性视角的经济数据分析——以主微分分析方法为例

基于经济数据的函数性特征,引入函数型数据分析方法,研究发现经济数据中的面板数据可作为函数型数据的特例,函数型数据分析方法在处理高维数据、缺失数据以及样本观测点不规则分布等特殊的数据类型有独特的优势。着重介绍和拓展了主微分分析方法,在集合了主成分分析方法优势的同时从微分方程的解出发探讨数据的特征。通过对全国银行间同业拆借利率进行主微分分析,显示出主微分分析方法能够揭示其它方法所不能反映的数据特征。     

Sparse group lasso for multiclass functional logistic regression models

Sparsity-inducing penalties are useful tools for variable selection and are also effective for regression problems where the data are functions. We consider the problem of selecting not only variables but also decision boundaries in multiclass logistic regression models for functional data, using sparse regularization. The parameters of the functional logistic regression model are estimated in the framework of the penalized likelihood method with the sparse group lasso-type penalty, and then tuning parameters for the model are selected using the model selection criterion. The effectiveness of the proposed method is investigated through simulation studies and the analysis of a gene expression data set.     

Functional logistic regression: a comparison of three methods

Functional logistic regression is becoming more popular as there are many situations where we are interested in the relation between functional covariates (as input) and a binary response (as output). Several approaches have been advocated, and this paper goes into detail about three of them: dimension reduction via functional principal component analysis, penalized functional regression, and wavelet expansions in combination with Least Absolute Shrinking and Selection Operator penalization. We discuss the performance of the three methods on simulated data and also apply the methods to data regarding lameness detection for horses. Emphasis is on classification performance, but we also discuss estimation of the unknown parameter function.     

Applying functional data analysis to assess tele-interpersonal psychotherapy's efficacy to reduce depression

The use of parametric linear mixed models and generalized linear mixed models to analyze longitudinal data collected during randomized control trials (RCT) is conventional. The application of these methods, however, is restricted due to various assumptions required by these models. When the number of observations per subject is sufficiently large, and individual trajectories are noisy, functional data analysis (FDA) methods serve as an alternative to parametric longitudinal data analysis techniques. However, the use of FDA in RCTs is rare. In this paper, the effectiveness of FDA and linear mixed models (LMMs) was compared by analyzing data from rural persons living with HIV and comorbid depression enrolled in a depression treatment randomized clinical trial. Interactive voice response systems were used for weekly administrations of the 10-item Self-Administered Depression Scale (SADS) over 41 weeks. Functional principal component analysis and functional regression analysis methods detected a statistically significant difference in SADS between telphone-administered interpersonal psychotherapy (tele-IPT) and controls but linear mixed effects model results did not. Additional simulation studies were conducted to compare FDA and LMMs under a different nonlinear trajectory assumption. In this clinical trial with sufficient per subject measured outcomes and individual trajectories that are noisy and nonlinear, we found FDA methods to be a better alternative to LMMs.     

用函数型数据分析网络团购市场的结构与市场发展

以美团网为例,使用函数型数据研究网络团购市场的结构与发展。首先将从网络采集到的团购离散数据,根据分析目的构造成函数化数据,然后对函数化的数据进行描述统计分析和函数主成分分析,并对不同种类的团购与不同地区的团购进行比较。最终得出区别于以往研究团购的结论:当期团购市场仍以美食类为主,购物类团购逐渐被大家认同,休闲类团购集中度下降;上海与北京都属于团购发展较快地区,而北京地区相对变动较大;热门地区团购销售额的集中度随着团购地区的扩张而被稀释。     

Unified Inference for Sparse and Dense Longitudinal Data in Time‐varying Coefficient Models

Time‐varying coefficient models are widely used in longitudinal data analysis. These models allow the effects of predictors on response to vary over time. In this article, we consider a mixed‐effects time‐varying coefficient model to account for the within subject correlation for longitudinal data. We show that when kernel smoothing is used to estimate the smooth functions in time‐varying coefficient models for sparse or dense longitudinal data, the asymptotic results of these two situations are essentially different. Therefore, a subjective choice between the sparse and dense cases might lead to erroneous conclusions for statistical inference. In order to solve this problem, we establish a unified self‐normalized central limit theorem, based on which a unified inference is proposed without deciding whether the data are sparse or dense. The effectiveness of the proposed unified inference is demonstrated through a simulation study and an analysis of Baltimore MACS data.     

Dihedral angles principal geodesic analysis using nonlinear statistics

Statistics, as one of the applied sciences, has great impacts in vast area of other sciences. Prediction of protein structures with great emphasize on their geometrical features using dihedral angles has invoked the new branch of statistics, known as directional statistics. One of the available biological techniques to predict is molecular dynamics simulations producing high-dimensional molecular structure data. Hence, it is expected that the principal component analysis (PCA) can response some related statistical problems particulary to reduce dimensions of the involved variables. Since the dihedral angles are variables on non-Euclidean space (their locus is the torus), it is expected that direct implementation of PCA does not provide great information in this case. The principal geodesic analysis is one of the recent methods to reduce the dimensions in the non-Euclidean case. A procedure to utilize this technique for reducing the dimension of a set of dihedral angles is highlighted in this paper. We further propose an extension of this tool, implemented in such way the torus is approximated by the product of two unit circle and evaluate its application in studying a real data set. A comparison of this technique with some previous methods is also undertaken.     

Functional principal component analysis for the explorative analysis of multisite–multivariate air pollution time series with long gaps

The knowledge of the urban air quality represents the first step to face air pollution issues. For the last decades many cities can rely on a network of monitoring stations recording concentration values for the main pollutants. This paper focuses on functional principal component analysis (FPCA) to investigate multiple pollutant datasets measured over time at multiple sites within a given urban area. Our purpose is to extend what has been proposed in the literature to data that are multisite and multivariate at the same time. The approach results to be effective to highlight some relevant statistical features of the time series, giving the opportunity to identify significant pollutants and to know the evolution of their variability along time. The paper also deals with missing value issue. As it is known, very long gap sequences can often occur in air quality datasets, due to long time failures not easily solvable or to data coming from a mobile monitoring station. In the considered dataset, large and continuous gaps are imputed by empirical orthogonal function procedure, after denoising raw data by functional data analysis and before performing FPCA, in order to further improve the reconstruction.     

Ordering and selecting components in multivariate or functional data linear prediction

Summary.  The problem of component choice in regression-based prediction has a long history. The main cases where important choices must be made are functional data analysis, and problems in which the explanatory variables are relatively high dimensional vectors. Indeed, principal component analysis has become the basis for methods for functional linear regression. In this context the number of components can also be interpreted as a smoothing parameter, and so the viewpoint is a little different from that for standard linear regression. However, arguments for and against conventional component choice methods are relevant to both settings and have received significant recent attention. We give a theoretical argument, which is applicable in a wide variety of settings, justifying the conventional approach. Although our result is of minimax type, it is not asymptotic in nature; it holds for each sample size. Motivated by the insight that is gained from this analysis, we give theoretical and numerical justification for cross-validation choice of the number of components that is used for prediction. In particular we show that cross-validation leads to asymptotic minimization of mean summed squared error, in settings which include functional data analysis.     

Multivariate Dispersion Models Generated From Gaussian Copula

In this paper a class of multivariate dispersion models generated from the multivariate Gaussian copula is presented. Being a multivariate extension of Jørgensen's (1987a) dispersion models, this class of multivariate models is parametrized by marginal position, dispersion and dependence parameters, producing a large variety of multivariate discrete and continuous models including the multivariate normal as a special case. Properties of the multivariate distributions are investigated, some of which are similar to those of the multivariate normal distribution, which makes these models potentially useful for the analysis of correlated non-normal data in a way analogous to that of multivariate normal data. As an example, we illustrate an application of the models to the regression analysis of longitudinal data, and establish an asymptotic relationship between the likelihood equation and the generalized estimating equation of Liang & Zeger (1986).     

Functional Partial Linear Single‐index Model

This paper deals with the problem of predicting the real‐valued response variable using explanatory variables containing both multivariate random variable and random curve. The proposed functional partial linear single‐index model treats the multivariate random variable as linear part and the random curve as functional single‐index part, respectively. To estimate the non‐parametric link function, the functional single‐index and the parameters in the linear part, a two‐stage estimation procedure is proposed. Compared with existing semi‐parametric methods, the proposed approach requires no initial estimation and iteration. Asymptotical properties are established for both the parameters in the linear part and the functional single‐index. The convergence rate for the non‐parametric link function is also given. In addition, asymptotical normality of the error variance is obtained that facilitates the construction of confidence region and hypothesis testing for the unknown parameter. Numerical experiments including simulation studies and a real‐data analysis are conducted to evaluate the empirical performance of the proposed method.     

Estimating Mixture of Gaussian Processes by Kernel Smoothing

When functional data are not homogenous, for example, when there are multiple classes of functional curves in the dataset, traditional estimation methods may fail. In this article, we propose a new estimation procedure for the mixture of Gaussian processes, to incorporate both functional and inhomogenous properties of the data. Our method can be viewed as a natural extension of high-dimensional normal mixtures. However, the key difference is that smoothed structures are imposed for both the mean and covariance functions. The model is shown to be identifiable, and can be estimated efficiently by a combination of the ideas from expectation-maximization (EM) algorithm, kernel regression, and functional principal component analysis. Our methodology is empirically justified by Monte Carlo simulations and illustrated by an analysis of a supermarket dataset.     

A Note on Estimation in Hilbertian Linear Models

We study estimation and prediction in linear models where the response and the regressor variable both take values in some Hilbert space. Our main objective is to obtain consistency of a principal component‐based estimator for the regression operator under minimal assumptions. In particular, we avoid some inconvenient technical restrictions that have been used throughout the literature. We develop our theory in a time‐dependent setup that comprises as important special case the autoregressive Hilbertian model.     

Functional time series approach for forecasting very short-term electricity demand

This empirical paper presents a number of functional modelling and forecasting methods for predicting very short-term (such as minute-by-minute) electricity demand. The proposed functional methods slice a seasonal univariate time series (TS) into a TS of curves; reduce the dimensionality of curves by applying functional principal component analysis before using a univariate TS forecasting method and regression techniques. As data points in the daily electricity demand are sequentially observed, a forecast updating method can greatly improve the accuracy of point forecasts. Moreover, we present a non-parametric bootstrap approach to construct and update prediction intervals, and compare the point and interval forecast accuracy with some naive benchmark methods. The proposed methods are illustrated by the half-hourly electricity demand from Monday to Sunday in South Australia.