The Demand for Credit Cards: Evidence from the Survey of Consumer Finances

We analyze data from the Survey of Consumer Finances estimate the response of credit card demand to standard price and income effects. We model credit card demand as a two-stage process, with consumers obtaining limits in the first stage and then borrowing some fraction of those limits in the second. We estimate this model with a nested tobit procedure. We also treat the demand for limits as one equation in a two-equation supply-demand model. We estimate this model with simple 2SLS, instrumenting for the price variable, the interest rate. The results of the first model suggest that most of the action in the market is in the demand for limits, not the demand for balances. (JEL D1 , G0 )     

A CLOSER LOOK AT LONG‐RUN U.S. MONEY DEMAND: LINEAR OR NONLINEAR ERROR‐CORRECTION WITH M0, M1, OR M2?

We study annual U.S. data from 1869 or 1900 to 1999. We find evidence for a well-specified and stable model of money demand with data from 1946 to 1999. We carry out diagnostic and stability tests, including linearity tests. A linear error-correction model with the monetary base performs better than a model with M1. A specification with M2 is not supported. We use real gross national product as the scale variable and a short-term interest rate as the opportunity cost measure. We estimate an income elasticity of 0.86 and an interest rate elasticity of −0.44 for the monetary base . ( JEL E41)     

GROUP LENDING WITH HETEROGENEOUS TYPES

This paper proposes and implements a mixture structure to model repayment behavior in group lending with unobserved group heterogeneity. We discuss the model properties and identification and estimate the model using a rich dataset from a group lending program in India. The estimation results support the existence of two different group types: “responsible” and “irresponsible” groups. We find that the effects of the factors driving repayment behavior differ across types. The model also shows a higher predictive performance than standard probabilistic models, particularly in the identification of potential defaulters. We provide evidence supporting the robustness of our estimations. (JEL O16, C35)     

Collective consumption models with restricted bargaining weights: an empirical assessment based on experimental data

We use experimental data to analyze consumption decisions by groups of individuals who have to reach a consensus on spending a joint budget. Our experiment involves dyads (i.e. two-member groups) who have to compose consumption bundles consisting of three commodities (wine, orange juice and M&Ms). We focus on the collective consumption model to describe group behavior. This model represents group decisions as Pareto optimal outcomes of a within-group bargaining process, with rational group members who are each characterized by individual bargaining weights. We also consider specifications of the collective model that restrict the variation of these bargaining weights. A distinguishing feature of our study is that we use revealed preference testing tools to assess the goodness-of-fit and discriminatory power of alternative specifications of the collective model. Our experimental results suggest that the most appropriate model specification allows for a limited variation of the bargaining weights.     

Co-supervision of social work students: A model for meeting the future needs of the profession

This article presents co-supervision as an effective and efficient model for field education of social work students. In our current climate of scarce resources and with a changing workforce that is increasingly feminised and part-time, this model provides a framework for efficient resource allocation by sharing the responsibility of field education among more than one social work supervisor. We will describe a model of co-supervision that we have developed over a period of 6 years. We will be using the findings from our own exploratory study for this model along with practice-based reflection to support our proposal that co-supervision is an innovative and beneficial model for field work education of social work students.     

A Hybrid Model of Moral Panics: Synthesizing the Theory and Practice of Moral Panic Research

We seek to address criticisms of the concept of moral panics (MPs) by offering a hybrid model of MPs that synthesizes theory and practice of MPs research. A review of the literature on MPs from sociology, media studies and related fields shows a wide variety of usage and lack of conceptual clarity of the term ‘moral panic’. Yet there are few articles explaining how to analyze MPs. We present a theoretical clarification of MPs by addressing elements of scope, intensity and reception, to create distinction from other related theoretical concepts. To develop a working method for researching MPs, one must have an understanding of social conditions that give rise to, sustain and result in the success or failure of MPs, as well as possible lasting effects. We synthesize Cohen’s process-oriented model of MPs and Goode & Ben-Yehuda’s attribution-oriented model of MPs, creating a critical hybrid model of MPs that integrates processes and attributes. We then utilize the hybrid model to offer practical suggestions for researching and analyzing the conditions, processes and effects of MPs, in the hopes of encouraging a more rigorous research agenda for scholars of MPs.     

Modelling reference dependence for repeated choices: A horse race between models of normalisation

In the logit model, a choice between options is driven by payoff differences. Existing evidence on repeated choices suggests that the way payoff differences are evaluated depends on historically observed differences. We capture such reference dependence using the value normalisation approach developed in neuroscience. We use experimental data and run a horse race between various models with normalisation, including widely used divisive and range normalisation. We show that a parsimonious logit model with maximum difference normalisation has both the best goodness of fit and a strong quasi-out-of-sample predictive power. In this structural parameter-free logit model, an agent makes a choice based on the difference in payoffs in the previous period, normalised by the maximum difference in payoffs in two previous periods. The model has a wide range of applications, from studying learning dynamics in repeated games to predicting retirement plans choices.     

IS AGENCY THEORY SELF‐ACTIVATING?

This article examines the conditions under which the principal-agent model is self-activating/socially causal. We do so by exploring a principal-agent framework that allows for the possibility that rational agents may hold intrinsic preferences for autonomy in decision making and experience disutility from being monitored. Using a dynamic model of preference formation, we identify conditions under which the principal-agent model is self-activating in that, over time, the introduction of the model in an otherwise efficient monitor-worker relationship leads to the inefficient adoption of the agency model. We also examine the extent to which the agency model is robust when autonomy-preferring agents are introduced into the population. ( JEL G30, L20, C72)     

A Systems-Developmental Approach to Counselling Couples with Sexual Problems: Part I — Theoretical Framework

We present a two part model for the understanding and treatment of long-standing sexual problems, especially those involving desire discrepancy between partners. In Part I, a theoretical model is outlined in terms of the normal developmental patterns of relationship development in current Western culture. We then discuss the balances and imbalances that develop as a consequence of differences in styles of loving, which affect sexual expectations and behaviour. In Part II we will examine the implications of the theoretical model for therapeutic intervention.     

Resolving Coparenting Dissatisfaction In Couples: A Preliminary Task Analysis Study

This study explored the change that unfolded when parents resolved their coparenting dissatisfaction during an Integrative Brief Systemic Intervention (IBSI) for parent couples. We conducted a task analysis (Greenberg, 2007) to build a model of resolving coparenting dissatisfaction. We compared a postulated model of change (rational model) based on theoretical and clinical assumptions to the observations of the actual change process that couples experienced in an IBSI (empirical analysis). The empirical analysis was conducted on six IBSI therapy cases (three exhibiting positive development and three exhibiting no development). We defined positive development in IBSI as moving from coparenting dissatisfaction to coparenting satisfaction. The final rational–empirical model included six steps that facilitated the resolution of coparenting dissatisfaction. This study contributes to deepening the knowledge of how coparenting may change during marital therapy.     

An agent-based random-utility-maximization model to generate social networks with transitivity in geographic space

Stochastic actor-based approaches receive increasing interest in the generation of social networks for simulation in time and space. Existing models however cannot be readily integrated in agent-based models that assume random-utility-maximizing behavior of agents. We propose an agent-based model to generate social networks explicitly in geographic space which is formulated in the random-utility-maximizing (RUM) framework. The proposed model consists of a friendship formation mechanism and a component to simulate social encounters in a population. We show how transitivity can be incorporated in both components and how the model can be estimated based on data of personal networks using likelihood estimation. In an application to the Swiss context, we demonstrate the estimation and ability of the model to reproduce relevant characteristics of networks, such as geographic proximity, attribute similarity (homophily), size of personal networks (degree distribution) and clustering (transitivity). We conclude that the proposed social-network model fits seamlessly in existing large-scale micro-simulation systems which assume RUM behavior of agents.     

THE FAMILY FIRO MODEL: A MODEST PROPOSAL FOR ORGANIZING FAMILY TREATMENT

This paper presents a model for organizing family issues and family treatment. Schutz's FIRO model is offered as a framework for organizing family issues into inclusion, control and affection categories. Following Schutz's theory of group development, we propose that inclusion, control and affection constitute a logical hierarchy of core issues to be dealt with in treating multiproblem families-inclusion first, then control, and then affection (intimacy). Furthermore, we propose that the FIRO model can be used to organize theories of family therapy. We attempt to demonstrate that different family therapies are best suited for one of the three core issues of family interaction. We advocate an "intelligent eclecticism" based on the premise that when an issue is appropriately matched with a therapy, therapeutic effectiveness should be enhanced. We also discuss implications of our Family FIRO model for clinical practice.     

Land ownership,the subsistence constraint,and the demographic transition

We develop a novel model of fertility choice predicting an increase and subsequent decrease in fertility levels without introducing a quality–quantity tradeoff, mortality changes, or urbanization. The model highlights the roles of a subsistence constraint and non-wage income deriving from the ownership of land. We show that the sign of the effect of the wage rate on fertility depends on whether non-wage income is greater or less than a minimum consumption level. Suggestive evidence supporting the model, on changes in fertility from 1851 to 1891 across French départements, is provided. Finally, we embed our static model in a model of endogenous growth, and provide a numerical illustration of the working of the model.     

An Attempt in Modeling the Labor Supply Process of Married Women in Tunisia

ABSTRACT

This article is aimed at determining the appropriate model for a married woman’s labor supply process in the presence of strategic interaction. We here compare two approaches: a traditional model and a strategic model. We try to estimate the process using Probit and Strategic models and specify, via structural equations, the advantage of the strategic model in the study of strategic data. Using the two models on individual Tunisian data enables us to note that as contrary to the woman expectations in a Probit model, the financial side is not a determining factor in the husband’s reaction once his wife gave up her work. This result has been observed only via the strategic model because it takes into account the presence of effect of strategic interaction between a woman’s decision and her husband’s reaction.     

Representing degree distributions, clustering, and homophily in social networks with latent cluster random effects models

Social network data often involve transitivity, homophily on observed attributes, community structure, and heterogeneity of actor degrees. We propose a latent cluster random effects model to represent all of these features, and we develop Bayesian inference for it. The model is applicable to both binary and non-binary network data. We illustrate the model using two real datasets: liking between monks and coreaderships between Slovenian publications. We also apply it to two simulated network datasets with very different network structure but the same highly skewed degree sequence generated from a preferential attachment process. One has transitivity and community structure while the other does not. Models based solely on degree distributions, such as scale-free, preferential attachment and power-law models, cannot distinguish between these very different situations, but the latent cluster random effects model does.     

The political economy of pension reform in Russia: Why partial privatization?

We begin with a brief history of social security policy in Russia both before and after the collapse of the Soviet Union. We describe the current pension scheme and present an analysis of the strengths and weaknesses of the model, with particular attention to the way in which it may disadvantage women and low-wage and informal sector workers. The reasons why Russia is in the process of implementing a social security scheme based largely on a model proposed by the World Bank is also explored. We argue that the decision reflects the effects of both internal and external economic pressures as well as cultural diffusion via the network of neo-liberal economists and pension experts associated with international financial institutions, most notably the World Bank. We conclude with a discussion of how we would restructure the Russian scheme making greater use of the notional defined contribution (NDC) model.     

Public enterprise and the rise and fall of labor share

Developed economies experienced a rise and fall in labor share (LS) in the postwar period. We present a novel explanation of these trends – public enterprise employment. We document a link between it and both LS and wage compression in 15 developed nations. We then build a model that shows how overstaffing public enterprises can increase LS and reduce wage inequality. Overstaffing directly increases public enterprise LS and indirectly increases private sector LS by reducing available labor. We examine several public enterprise reforms. Consistent with the model’s predictions, reforms reduce public enterprise LS permanently and private sector LS temporarily.     

Mitchell's Relational Conflict Model: An Analysis of Its Usefulness in Clinical Social Work

This article examines the relational conflict model developed by Stephen A. Mitchell. The main concepts of Mitchell's relational conflict model are discussed, particularly early patterns of connection to parental figures and the interactive treatment approach to understanding and changing those relational patterns. The model is contrasted with classical drive and developmental arrest theories in the psychodynamic treatment of psychopathology. We explain how Mitchell's model, in keeping with a social work perspective, takes into consideration the social, cultural, and environmental factors as well as the intrapsychic. We discuss how patterns of relating are reworked throughout the life course, and we explore the potential for individual agency in constructing new patterns of relating. We also highlight the social constructivist aspects of Mitchell's approach which are congruent with current contemporary trends in social work theory. A case vignette is presented to illustrate the viability of this model for clinical social work practice.     

RECESSIONS AND RECOVERIES IN REAL BUSINESS CYCLE MODELS

We evaluate the ability of a simple real business cycle model to generate business cycles in the classical NBER sense of the term, where recessions are periods of absolute declines in economic activity. We use the "phase" classification of Burns and Mitchell [1946] to determine the "shape" of the business cycle and to look for asymmetries between expansions and contractions. We show that such a model can generate business cycles of plausible duration and depth, but cannot match the actual "Shape" of the business cycle. Nonlinear models, such as Friedman's [1993] "plucking" model may more closely match the observed shape.     

Covariate-defined latent space random effects model

Latent factor models are a useful and intuitive class of models; one limitation is their inability to predict links in a dynamic network. We propose a latent space random effects model with a covariate-defined social space, where the social space is a linear combination of the covariates as estimated by an MCMC algorithm. The model allows for the prediction of links in a network; it also provides an interpretable framework to explain why people connect. We fit the model using the Adolescent Health Network dataset and three simulated networks to illustrate its effectiveness in recognizing patterns in the data.