Investing in people: The role of social networks in the diffusion of a large-scale fraud

This paper draws from social network analysis and diffusion theory to study the case of a mortgage fraud that spread undetected for five years in British Columbia, Canada. The fraud is studied from the point of view of 559 victims who unknowingly invested in the Ponzi scheme which defrauded 2285 investors for a total of $ 240 million dollars. Results show diffusion played a role in the success of the Eron fraud even though the fraud ended before it reached the final stages of a classic diffusion process. A closer look at the social structure of the Eron network revealed the elements that made the fraud successful: (1) change agents, particularly Eron principals and Eron employees invested their personal time and effort recruiting investors; (2) independent brokers actively spread the fraud to their clients; and (3) opinion leaders, investors themselves, unknowingly spread the fraud through their social networks by recruiting their friends and family to invest in Eron.     

Critical phenomena in complex contagions

Why do some contagions “go viral” and others do not? Research on “small world” networks (Watts and Strogatz, 1998) shows how a very small number of long-range ties that bridge between clusters can allow contagions to spread almost as rapidly as on a random network of equal density. Recent research shows how long-range ties that accelerate the spread of information and disease can impede the spread of complex contagions—behaviors, beliefs and preferences that diffuse via contact with multiple adopters ( Centola and Macy, 2007). In confirming this result analytically and extending the analysis from small world to power law networks, we discovered that complex contagions require a critical mass of infected nodes that corresponds to a phase transition in the ability of the contagion to take advantage of the “shortcuts” created by long-range ties. We demonstrate how this critical mass is related to the dynamics of the contagion process and identify implications for modeling behaviors that spread via social influence, such as viral marketing and social movements.     

The Globalization of Penal Space in Nineteenth-Century Malta

In the second half of the nineteenth century an unprecedented number of prisons were built across the Western-influenced world. However, many more developed from repurposed and modified buildings. By applying space syntax analysis to examples from the then British colony of Malta, this article investigates the commonalities of penal space across a series of purpose-built and refashioned prisons, taking into consideration key architectural phases resulting from remodelling. Rejecting the notion that Maltese developments are merely symptomatic of British colonialism, the spread of Western prisons is cast in terms of wider trends and the global spread of a particular type of penal space.     

Diffusion of Protest

Studies of diffusion have a long‐standing history within the social sciences. Recent concurrent political uprisings within the mid‐East and the global spread of the Occupy! Movement have renewed focus on the spread of tactics within and between social movements organizations. The article discusses the historical context of diffusion research, with an emphasis on diffusion research within the study of social movements. The author calls for continued research on the spread of tactics within international social movements given that such movements are currently dynamic and contested sites of struggle.     

GRIND OR GAMBLE? AN EXPERIMENT ON EFFORT AND SPREAD SEEKING IN CONTESTS

We conduct a contest experiment to study if spread seeking and effort can be managed when participants can invest in increasing both the mean and the spread of an uncertain performance variable. Subjects are treated with different prize schemes and in accordance with theory, we observe higher investments in spread for the winner-take-all scheme. Both types of investments can be controlled with a three-level prize scheme. However, the control management is imperfect and behavior is characterized by inertia. We also explore the correlation between effort and spread across subjects and find that is robustly positive.     

Legalization of lotteries in the 1980s

The decade of the 1980s has witnessed an explosion in legalized gambling. Most dramatic has been the growth of state-sponsored lotteries. The spread of these state-operated lotteries is the result of pressure for more revenues for state operating costs. Lotteries are viewed as a means of raising these revenues: In 1987, state-operated lotteries grossed over $12 billion in sales. Eight states had sales exceeding $1 billion (New York Times, 1988). Clearly, state lotteries have become big business. The purpose of this article is to describe the spread of lotteries in the 1980s and to note the minimal attention given to compulsive gambling in debates on lotteries.Mr. Braidfoot is General Counsel for the Christian Life Commission of the Southern Baptist Convention. He is the author ofGambling: The Deadly Game.     

The influence of Indian Buddhism on Bai identification and understanding of their origins as a people: a research note

Exactly when Buddhism spread to the Lake Erhai region continues to be a hotly debated issue among scholars. Upon examining currently available documents and artifacts, however, one starts to see evidence that Indian Buddhism spread to the Lake Erhai region of western Yunnan from the ‘Southern Branch of the Silk Road’ by about the middle of the seventh century ad.Indian Buddhism has had a profound impact on Bai history and culture, most notably in (1) the spread and assimilation of Acaya Buddhism into Bai culture, and (2) the Bai perception that they are the descendents of King Asoka, India's famous early promoter of Buddhism.     

DISCOUNT WINDOW BORROWING AND FEDERAL RESERVE OPERATING REGIMES

I find empirical evidence that bank borrowing behavior at the discount window changed when the Federal Reserve changed its short-run operating procedures and reserve accounting rules. Under narrow Federal funds rate targeting (1975-79), the spread between the funds rate and the discount rate was relatively predictable and borrowing was very sensitive to the spread. Under nonborrowed reserves targeting (1979-82), the spread became more volatile and less predictable, and borrowing became significantly less sensitive to the spread. With the switch to contemporaneous reserve accounting under borrowed reserves targeting in 1984, borrowing became even less sensitive to the spread.     

CONSUMPTION SPENDING AND THE PAPER-BILL SPREAD: THEORY AND EVIDENCE

This paper explains recent findings that the paper-bill spread helps forecast consumption spending using an intertemporal optimizing model of consumption and portfolio allocation. The spread is simply the opportunity cost in terms of foregone future consumption of holding government debt rather than higher yielding private debt. Thus, if government debt appears along with consumption in the single period utility function, the spread appears in one of the Euler equations for consumption and asset accumulation. Empirical tests strongly support the model. Finally, including the spread in a rule of thumb model of consumption reduces the importance of non-optimizing behavior. ( JEL E21, E43, C22, C32)     

THE EQUILIBRIUM FED FUNDS RATE AND THE INDICATOR PROPERTIES OF TERM-STRUCTURE SPREADS

This paper introduces a model-based measure of the equilibrium federal funds rate and examines the indicator properties of the spread between observed and equilibrium rates. The results are compared to those of existing studies, which implicitly use long-term interest rates to proxy the equilibrium funds rate. Granger-causality tests suggest that different measures of the term-structure spread are dominated by the funds-rate spread as a forecaster of a wide range of macroeconomic variables. These results are supported by variance-decomposition analysis. The paper also estimates simple VARs to discuss how the policy stance responds to macroeconomic shocks     

阿拉伯国家艾滋病问题现状综述

本文概述了阿拉伯国家艾滋病问题的现状，分析了阿拉伯国家自身的文化、社会结构特点与艾滋病传播的关系，指出艾滋病已成为当今阿拉伯各国不可忽视的重要问题，同时也对阿拉伯国家防治艾滋病的前景做出了较乐观的估计。     

Social Contagion and General Diffusion Models of Adolescent Religious Transitions: A Tutorial,and EMOSA Applications

Epidemic Models of the Onset of Social Activities (EMOSA) describe behaviors that spread through social networks. Two social influence methods are represented, social contagion (one-to-one spread) and general diffusion (spread through cultural channels). Past models explain problem behaviors—smoking, drinking, sexuality, and delinquency. We provide review, and a tutorial (including examples). Following, we present new EMOSA models explaining changes in adolescent and young adult religious participation. We fit the model to 10 years of data from the 1997 U.S. National Longitudinal Survey of Youth. Innovations include a three-stage bi-directional model, Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) estimation, graphical innovations, and empirical validation. General diffusion dominated rapid reduction in church attendance during adolescence; both diffusion and social contagion explained church attendance stability in early adulthood.     

Homosexual role separation: Implications for analyzing and modeling the spread of HIV

The analysis of the spread of HIV in homosexual populations must be based on knowledge of all factors which promote or inhibit transmission. Recently, data were reported from the Amsterdam cohort study that imply that sexual role separation and the changes therein should be taken into account in analyzing and modeling the spread of HIV. In this paper, a role separation mixing model is described and linked to data from the Amsterdam cohort. The model allows one to study the impact of homosexual role separation on the spread of HIV. The homosexual men are classified into four sexual subgroups based on the preference for: 1) no anal intercourse; 2) anal insertive only; 3) anal receptive only; 4) both insertive and receptive. The analysis accounts for variability and change in homosexual role behavior and loss to follow up. The results support the conjecture that there are large differences between the risks of receptive and insertive anal intercourse, with the latter carrying only minimal risk. The analysis indicates that the spread of HIV is mostly restricted to subgroup 4, the largest and sexually most active subgroup. In this subgroup, the estimated probability of HIV transmission from an infected insertive partner (in subgroup 2 or 4) to a receptive susceptible (in subgroup 4) is between 1 and 5 percent (assuming a closed cohort).     

Exploring the co-movements between COVID-19 pandemic and international air traffic: A global perspective based on wavelet analysis

The travel and tourism industry was one of the fastest-growing industries before the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic. However, to avoid COVID-19 spread, the government authorities imposed strict lockdown and international border restrictions except for some emergency international flights that badly hit the travel and tourism industry. The study explores the nexus between international air departures and the COVID-19 pandemic in this strain. We use a novel wavelet coherence approach to dissect the lead and lag relationships between international flight departures and COVID-19 deaths from January 2020 to September 2020 (COVID-19 first wave period). The results reveal that international flights cause the spread of COVID-19 spread during May 2020 to June 2020 worldwide. The overall findings suggest asymmetries between daily international flight departures and COVID-19 deaths globally at different time-frequency periods due to uncertainty surrounding the COVID-19 pandemic. The study will be conducive for the policymakers to control the upsurge of COVID-19 spread worldwide.     

Dealing with the COVID-19 crisis: Theoretical application of social media analytics in government crisis management

Little theory-grounded research addresses how to use social media strategically in government public relations through machine learning. To fill this gap, we propose a way to optimize social media analytics to manage issues and crises by using the framework of attribution theory to analyze 360,861 tweets. In particular, we examined the attribution of crisis responsibility related to the spread of COVID-19 and its relations to the negative emotions of U.S. citizens on Twitter for six months (from January 20 to June 30, 2020). The results of this study showed that social media analytics is a valid tool to monitor how the spread of COVID-19 evolved from an issue to a crisis for the Trump administration. In addition, the federal government’s lack of response and inability to handle the outbreak led to citizens’ engagement and amplification of negative tweets that blamed the Trump White House. Theoretical and practical implications of the results are discussed.     

Under Two Flags: Dual Nationality in Latin America and Its Consequences for Naturalization in the United States

This article surveys the practice of dual nationality in the Western Hemisphere, particularly as it impacts the naturalization rates of immigrants in the United States. The article begins by looking at the extent and spread of dual nationality provisions and the pathways for its implementation. Next, the article turns to a discussion of the multiple (and at times conflicting) interests – of immigrants, sending states and receiving states – in dual nationality. While immigrants and sending countries are in general agreement on the positive benefits of dual nationality, commentators in receiving countries like the United States continue to express deep unease at the spread of dual nationality and its consequences for American citizenship. Are these concerns justified? Not according to U.S. naturalization rates. Data from 1965 to 1997 indicate that immigrants from countries recognizing dual nationality average higher naturalization rates in the United States than countries that do not.     

The Spread of Disability Living Allowance

This article examines the spread of Disability Living Allowance across a group of low income households in an industrial town in North West England from the introduction of the new benefits in 1992 until the Spring of 1996. We focus on the changes over time of the incidence of Disability Living Allowance in the low income population and look at the relative spread of different elements of the benefit. We speculate on whether the new benefits have provided the most effective way of fulfilling the aims of the White Paper, The Way Ahead , and discuss the implications for social and medical models of disability.     

Visions of Protest. A Media‐Historic Perspective on Images in Social Movements

Social movements and the messages they wish to spread are essentially visual phenomena. Although this is both an obvious and momentous assertion, social movement research has been hesitant to integrate visual data. Until lately, most insights into the use of images in social movements originated from historical and media studies. This contribution presents the recent surge in literature devoted to the visual analysis of social movements. It focuses on activists' practices of image production and distribution under certain media‐historic constellations. In this perspective, the current opportunities to create and spread images of dissent are contrasted with previous appropriations of technical possibilities from early print to electronic media. In times of mobile devices combined with social network sites, scholars of movement images are confronted with profound changes in the ways images contribute to the emergence and dynamics of social movements. Thus, we argue for a media‐sensitive analysis of images in social movements.     

The disability divide in internet access and use

The increasing spread of the Internet holds much potential for enhancing opportunities for people with disabilities. However, scarce evidence exists to suggest that people with disabilities are, in fact, participating in these new developments. Will the spread of information technologies (IT) increase equality by offering opportunities for people with disabilities? Or will a growing reliance on IT lead to more inequality by leaving behind certain portions of the population including people with disabilities? In this paper, the authors draw on nationally representative data regarding Americans' Internet uses to (1) identify the extent to which people with disabilities are embracing use of the Internet; (2) how their use of the Internet compares with the Internet uses of the rest of the population; (3) how having a disability relates to and interacts with other social statuses (e.g. socioeconomic status, age, gender) with regard to Internet use; and (4) what explains these trends. They draw on representative data collected by the Bureau of Labor Statistics and the Census of the United States to answer these questions. It is found that people with disabilities are less likely to live in households with computers, are less likely to use computers and are less likely to be online. However, once socioeconomic background is controlled for, it is found that people with hearing disabilities and those who have limited walking ability are not less likely to be Internet users. This research enables a deeper understanding of both the use of the Internet by people with disabilities and the spread of new IT more generally.     

The tie effect on information dissemination: the spread of a commercial rumor in Hong Kong

The ability to acquire information has been considered a crucial factor facilitating instrumental actions, such as job search and organizational innovation. Previous social network studies tend to treat the characteristics of social ties through which information is acquired as causes that may affect instrumental outcomes. However, little research has directly examined the spread of information via social ties and the tie effect on information dissemination. Using telephone survey data collected after the outbreak of an extensive commercial rumor in Hong Kong, the present paper investigates the characteristics of social ties through which the information is spread and the tie effect on information dissemination. Results show that while mass media, particularly television, serves as a major channel of information flow, social ties are also widely used. Individuals tend to share information with strong ties, or people with whom they perceive to have good relations. However, information transmitted via kin ties tends to arrive at the respondent faster than via nonkin ties or other communication channels. Implications of the findings are discussed.