The potential of child care tax credits to reduce poverty and welfare recipiency

As more and more mothers of young children enter the work force, interest in government financing of child care grows. The chief government subsidy for child care is the child care credit in the federal Internal Revenue Code. This is a nonrefundable credit and therefore provides benefits only to those with incomes high enough to require them to pay income tax. Yet of the $ 5.5 billion spent by the federal government on child care in 1986, this program accounted for $ 3.5 billion.This paper simulates the effects of expanding the child care tax credit by (1) doubling the reimbursement rates of the current credit; (2) making the credit refundable; and (3) both making the credit refundable and increasing its value for all families with income below $ 32,000.Results suggest that these changes will have modest effects on the income and earnings of mothers, and on the poverty gap and welfare recipiency. Costs, however, differ substantially. Doubling the value of the credit is far more expensive than either making the credit refundable or making it both refundable and more generous at the bottom of the income distribution. Making the credit refundable may cost taxpayers very little by leading to increases in hours worked and concomitant reductions in welfare payments.     

The Pronatalist Undercurrent of the $500-per-Child Tax Credit

A review of studies which find a positive impact of tax structure on American fertility suggests this effect will increase with the tax benefits legislated by the 1997 $500-per-child tax credit. The tax credit also resembles pronatalist family allowances in other developed countries. First, however, the article investigates the intent of the tax credit, showing that key supporters hope it will increase fertility among tax-paying Americans. Lastly, the pronatalist undercurrent of the tax credit suggests that future efforts will push for further increasing the tax benefits of children in order to increase the American birth rate.     

Microcredit,Family Planning Programs,and Contraceptive Behavior: Evidence From a Field Experiment in Ethiopia

The impact of community-based family planning programs and access to credit on contraceptive use, fertility, and family size preferences has not been established conclusively in the literature. We provide additional evidence on the possible effect of such programs by describing the results of a randomized field experiment whose main purpose was to increase the use of contraceptive methods in rural areas of Ethiopia. In the experiment, administrative areas were randomly allocated to one of three intervention groups or to a fourth control group. In the first intervention group, both credit and family planning services were provided and the credit officers also provided information on family planning. Only credit or family planning services, but not both, were provided in the other two intervention groups, while areas in the control group received neither type of service. Using pre- and post-intervention surveys, we find that neither type of program, combined or in isolation, led to an increase in contraceptive use that is significantly greater than that observed in the control group. We conjecture that the lack of impact has much to do with the mismatch between women’s preferred contraceptive method (injectibles) and the contraceptives provided by community-based agents (pills and condoms).     

An Econometric Analysis of the Relationship Between Millennium Development Goals,Economic Growth and Financial Development in South Africa

The relationship between financial development, economic growth and millennium development goals are unsettled in the literature. Using four indicators of financial development, this paper studies the link between the three variables in South Africa. In general, per capita income improves per capita spending on education in the short run. However, total domestic credit to GDP ratio decreases spending on education. There are highly significant long run relationships among the variables. Improving access to private sector credit and increasing per capita incomes are associated with improvement in health outcomes in South Africa. There are no short run nor long run relationships between household spending on clothes, economic growth and financial sector development. Improved private sector credit also improves household spending on food. In general, there are long run relationships between per capita spending on food, per capita income and financial sector development.

     

Savings/credit group formation and change in contraception

We examine the characteristics of women who chose to join a women's savings or credit group organized by Save the Children USA in a rural area of Bangladesh, and the impact of participation on contraceptive use. The data are taken from a panel survey conducted in 1993, shortly before the groups were formed, and in 1995 after interventions began. Our findings show that although demographic and socioeconomic characteristics have only a weak relationship to the decision to join a program, the treatment that a woman receives from her husband is associated with participation. We also find evidence that the credit program tends to attract women who are already using contraception. The analysis of program impact on the use of modern contraceptives reveals a positive effect of the credit program, after we adjust for this selectivity; we see no evidence of an effect of participation in a savings group.     

Federal financing of child care: Alternative approaches and economic implications

This paper surveys alternative approaches to financing child care at the federal level and discusses their economic implications with respect to female labor force participation, fertility, child care demand and supply, and poverty. The current system of federal support for child care is seen to consist of a series of overlapping programs that tend to create inefficiencies and inequities in the distribution of child care benefits. Four basic principles of an ideal child care system are outlined, and a general two-tiered system of support is proposed that would satisfy these four principles. The two-tiered system is centered on a refundable tax credit considerably more progressive than the current child care tax credit. A simulation analysis indicates that the proposed refundable tax credit would not cost much more than many of the more popular child care bills currently being debated in Congress.     

流动人口信用缺失的经济学探析

从成本收益的角度看,流动人口强流动性的特点决定了他们更易选择违约,但并非所有的流动人口都选择违约。这是因为其违约的原因有多种,只有条件具备时他们才选择违约。由于流动人口数量已经占到我国总人口的十分之一还要多,因此有必要关注其诚信问题,采取相应措施提高其诚信水平。     

Tolerance Within Community: Does Social Capital Affect Tolerance?

Credit cooperatives are financial intermediaries that pay attention to social criteria. Thus, if such entities want to survive and thrive in the new international context, they cannot ignore their inefficiencies in both the financial and social dimensions of their activity. However, previous research on efficiency in credit cooperatives is very limited and only considers their financial activity. To date, no study has been published giving evidence through indicators on whether these banking institutions are socially efficient. This paper therefore constructs a social efficiency index of Spanish credit cooperatives during the period 2008–2014 and examines its main explanatory factors. After applying a two-stage Data Envelopment Analysis approach, the results from the first stage indicate that, on average, the social efficiency of Spanish credit cooperatives reaches an acceptable level of 66.42 %. Second-stage truncated regression reveals that entities with a greater proportion of branches in urban areas are socially less efficient, whereas both their size and the number of service points have a positive effect. Interestingly, social efficiency also varies significantly depending on the regional location of credit cooperatives in Spain. As a result, our findings enable these Social Economy financial institutions to both know their performance relative to their social activity and use this information to improve their competitiveness in the future.     

我国公民与外来人口社会距离的实证研究

公民与外来人口的社会距离反映了外来人口社会适应与融合的情况,以往研究以本地居民与外来人口的社会距离为切入点,忽视了在本地工作的外地人与外地人之间的社会距离。本研究弥补了这一缺陷。实证研究表明,户籍对于外来人口的社会距离存在一定影响,但在控制了地域身份后,户籍对于外来人口社会距离的影响消失,这说明户籍的影响正在消除,但以本地-外地为划分的地域身份正在接替户籍的作用,二元结构并没有破除。同时,中国人特殊的信任结构并没有在社会变迁和经济的冲击下改变,依然存在着对自己人的特殊信任和对外人的普遍信任两种情况,前者拉大了与外来人口的社会距离,后者则缩短了这一距离。结果还显示,心理感受对于公民与外来人口的社会距离有着非常重要的作用,这也表明心理意愿是公民交往的社会基础。     

Credit programs for the poor and reproductive behavior in low-income countries: Are the reported causal relationships the result of heterogeneity bias?

Group-based lending programs for the poor have drawn much attention recently. As many of these programs target women, an important research question is whether program participation significantly changes reproductive behavior and whether the gender of the participant matters. Using survey data from 87 Bangladeshi villages, we estimate the impact of female and male participation in group-based credit programs on reproductive behavior while attending to issues of self-selection and endogeneity. Wefind no evidence that women s participation in group-based credit programs increases contraceptive use or reduces fertility. Men So participation reduces fertility and may slightly increase contraceptive use.     

The earned income tax credit and fertility

Government programs designed to provide income safety nets often restrict eligibility to families with children, creating an unintended fertility incentive. This paper considers whether dramatically changing incentives in the earned income tax credit affect fertility rates in the USA. We use birth certificate data spanning the period 1990 to 1999 to test whether expansions in the credit influenced birthrate among targeted families. While economic theory would predict a positive fertility effect of the program for many eligible women, our results indicate that expanding the credit produced only extremely small reductions in higher order fertility among white women.

信贷约束下的农村人力资本积累

我国农民收入偏低的关键在于人力资本水平偏低,因此,要提高农民收入,就必须提升农民的人力资本水平。然而,农民的收入水平使其难以向人力资本投资,农村信贷市场的约束又使低收入的农民常常举贷无门,因此,农民常常会陷入“贫困的恶性循环”。由于信贷市场的约束并无破解良策,要提升农村人力资本,必须在教育、农村医疗保障、劳动力迁徙等方面重塑政府职能。     

Household vulnerability and child labor: the effect of shocks,credit rationing,and insurance

In this paper, we use a unique data set for Guatemala to estimate the effect of idiosyncratic shocks and credit constrains on children’s labor supply and schooling decisions. We extend Rosenbaum and Rubin (J R Stat Soc B 45:212–218, 1983b) analysis to the case of a multinomial outcome by proposing an innovative sensitivity analysis to assess the robustness of the estimates with respect to the presence of unobservables. The results show that credit rationing is an important determinant of school enrollment and children’s work. Exposure to negative shocks also strongly influences household decisions and pushes children to work, while access to coping mechanisms, like insurance, tends to increase education and to reduce child labor.     

Debt,Cohabitation, and Marriage in Young Adulthood

Despite growing evidence that debt influences pivotal life events in early and young adulthood, the role of debt in the familial lives of young adults has received relatively little attention. Using data from the NLSY 1997 cohort (N = 6,749) and a discrete-time competing risks hazard model framework, I test whether the transition to first union is influenced by a young adult’s credit card and education loan debt above and beyond traditional educational and labor market characteristics. I find that credit card debt is positively associated with cohabitation for men and women, and that women with education loan debt are more likely than women without such debt to delay marriage and transition into cohabitation. Single life may be difficult to afford, but marital life is unaffordable as well. Cohabitation presents an alternative to single life, but not necessarily a marital substitute for these young adults.     

新疆农村贫困程度测度与扶贫资金动态绩效分析

新疆作为一个多民族、多宗教、多文化、多语言共存的特殊地区,扎实应对和稳步解决新疆贫困问题,事关祖国边疆的安全与稳定。首先,通过测算1994—2009年FGT贫困指数后发现:新疆农村的贫困广度、贫困深度和贫困强度的变化趋势具有波动性和阶段性特征,而且近几年减贫速度明显放缓,甚至有趋于加重的趋势;新疆农村居民的收入差距状况也不容乐观,正处于危险的边缘。然后,利用状态空间模型分析扶贫资金对贫困程度的动态扶贫绩效,得出以下结论:信贷扶贫资金的整体表现最佳,财政扶贫资金作用居中,以工代赈资金则在降低贫困强度方面表现较好;同时,总结出以下规律:当贫困程度较深时,具有较强盈利性的信贷扶贫资金和较强扩散性的财政扶贫资金更为有效;当由大范围贫困转为少数人贫困时,具有较强针对性的以工代赈资金更为有效。     

Intergenerational income immobility in Finland: contrasting roles for parental earnings and family income

An intergenerational model is developed, nesting heritable earning abilities and credit constraints limiting human capital investments in children. Estimates on a large, Finnish data panel indicate very low transmission from parental earnings, suggesting that the parameter of inherited earning ability is tiny. Family income, particularly during the phase of educating children, is shown to be much more important in shaping children’s lifetime earnings. This influence of parental incomes on children’s earnings rises as the children age because the returns to education rise. Despite Finland’s well-developed welfare state, persistence in economic status across generations is much higher than previously thought.     

Normative evaluation of tax policies: from households to individuals

We simulate a hypothetical family tax credit on a sample of French couples, using jointly a collective model of labor supply and a tax-benefit calculator. Work behaviors represent here a general concept of “effort,” and hence, individual productivities cannot be assimilated with wage rates. They are retrieved by inversion of the optimal household program under simple assumptions on household preferences and bargaining rules. The calibrated model is used to predict incentive effects of the reform and distributive impacts on individuals and households. The desirability of the reform depends on which of these two welfare units is used for normative evaluation.      

Women’s status and domestic violence in rural Bangladesh: Individual- and community-level effects

We explore the determinants of domestic violence in two rural areas of Bangladesh. We found increased education, higher socioeconomic status, non-Muslim religion, and extended family residence to be associated with lower risks of violence. The effects of women's status on violence was found to be highly context-specific. In the more culturally conservative area, higher individual-level women's autonomy and short-term membership in savings and credit groups were both associated with significantly elevated risks of violence, and community-level variables were unrelated to violence. In the less culturally conservative area, in contrast, individual-level women's status indicators were unrelated to the risk of violence, and community-level measures of women's status were associated with significantly lower risks of violence, presumably by reinforcing nascent normative changes in gender relations.     

The defense of marriage act (DOMA): its impact on those seeking same sex marriages

Recognition of same-sex marriage has been a goal of many in the gay rights movement. With the passage of the Defense of Marriage Act (DOMA), same-sex relationships will not be afforded the same opportunities as heterosexual relationships. This paper will discuss the process leading to the passage of the DOMA, and will argue that the passage of this piece of legislation was a misuse of Article IV, Section 2 of the United States Constitution, "Full Faith and Credit". The Defense of Marriage Act represents an extraordinary act of Congress, as they have rarely passed legislation under this mandate and have never passed legislation that curtails full faith and credit. Strategies that can be utilized to overcome the constraints of the DOMA will also be included.     

Intergenerational education mobility of black and white South Africans

Using the October Household Surveys, we found that the intergenerational education mobility of whites is higher than that of blacks. Among blacks, females have a higher intergenerational education mobility than males, while the poorest have the lowest intergenerational education mobility. The lower education mobility of blacks than that of whites indicate that factors such as access to the credit market, as well as the availability and quality of schools, are important determinants of educational attainment. Interestingly, the cross section estimates of black intergenerational education mobility do not differ from those obtained by using pseudopanel data, which control for unobserved community effects. The views expressed here are those of the author and should not be associated with the African Development Bank, their members, or the countries they represent.