Decomposing Trends in Child Obesity

We unravel the absolute level and relative prominence of two demographic processes that are relevant for childhood obesity, and that will ultimately determine the long-term course and pace of change in child obesity rates. We leverage data from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey to decompose change in child obesity from 1971 to 2012. We partition change into that attributable to (1) healthier, more nutritionally and economically advantaged cohorts in the population being replaced by cohorts of children who are less advantaged (between-cohort change), and (2) the health habits, nutrition, and social and economic circumstances of all cohorts of children worsening over time (within-cohort change). The rise in obesity among children aged 2 to 19 years is solely due to intracohort change driven by variation in food security composition and in the diet of the population over time. Child obesity in the population rose largely because of individual increases in weight status that are broadly distributed across age and cohort groups. Smaller but significant cohort replacement effects slightly attenuated these intracohort change effects over the study period, leading to a more gradual increase in obesity. Our results provide some reasons for optimism. Given that population estimates of child obesity rose because the typical member of all cohorts became heavier over time at all stages of the early life course, successful policy and health interventions that focus on changing health habits across all ages and generations have the potential to quickly slow or reverse the upward trend in child obesity.

     

Data Gap Analysis,Indicator Selection and Index Development: A Case for Developing Economies

Sustainable Development Goals (SDG) and its measurement is a key policy focus across the globe. Despite existence of several indices and reporting agencies, it is a challenging task to identify progress, specifically in the case of developing economies. These economies are predominantly in Asia and Africa and have a great bearing on global performance. These countries have diverse geographical and cultural elements with an active sub-national institutional framework. Data gap coupled with poor data quality and limited financial support does not help their case. Without appropriate indicator selection and index measurement it is not possible to judge the actual current situation or compare the SDG situation around the world. This paper attempts a practical and simpler approach to overcome the constraints, provide direction and facilitate measurement of SDG position in such countries using the case of India. This is done by identifying gaps, suggesting a tailored approach to indicator selection and measurement and further, developing a suitable index for SDG measurement at the sub-national level. The results and findings should be of great interest for policy making and implementing agencies.

     

An Assessment of EU 2020 Strategy: Too Far to Reach?

In 2010, EU adopted a new growth strategy which includes three growth priorities and five headline targets to be reached by 2020. The aim of this paper is to investigate the current performance of the EU member and candidate states in achieving these growth priorities and the overall strategy target by allocating the headline targets into the priorities and the priorities into the strategy by the use of a composite indicator methodology. The paper determines how far away each member and candidate state is from the targeted levels of the priorities and the strategy by making a distinction between EU 15 and relatively new member states as well. The developed composite indices enable the observation of the performances of the member and candidate states in a single indicator for the overall strategy and each growth priority. The results of the strategy index and three growth priority indices show that Nordic states possess the highest index scores already having reached many of the targets; many new member states performed as good as EU 15 and some EU 15 states are placed at the bottom of the ranking with quite poor performance in reaching the EU 2020 strategy.     

Trust in American Government: Longitudinal Measurement Equivalence in the ANES, 1964–2008

For over 50 years (1958–2012) the American National Election Studies (ANES) survey has been measuring citizens’ evaluations of the trustworthiness of the “government in Washington”—an indicator that has been widely used to monitor the dynamics of political trust in the US over time. However, a critical assumption in using attitudinal constructs for longitudinal research is that the meaning-and-interpretation of such items should be comparable across groups of respondents at any one point in time and across samples over time. Using multigroup confirmatory factor analysis for ordered-categorical data, we test the measurement equivalence assumption with data collected by the ANES from 1964 to 2008. The results confirm that the ANES’ political trust scale has the same basic factorial structure over time. But for two key items, several threshold parameters were found to be different across time points, indicating that the meaning-and-interpretation of these questions, and especially the question about whether the government in Washington wastes money that people pay in taxes, varies significantly over time.

     

Poverty,Inequality, and Fertility: The Contribution of Demographic Change to Global Poverty Reduction

Global poverty has fallen dramatically over the past decades. In many developing countries, this transformation was accompanied by rapid improvements in demographic outcomes, such as falling child mortality and fertility. Yet, recent theorizing and empirical research into the causes of global poverty reduction has mostly omitted demographic factors. This paper aims to fill this gap by testing for effects of demographic variables on poverty. Using time series data for 140 countries, we document a strong effect of lagged fertility on country-specific poverty rates. This effect is robust across several specifications and data sets. It appears to be stronger in countries with larger fertility differentials, in the early transition stages. The proposed mechanism behind this result is a “Kuznets curve-type” expansion of fertility inequality at the onset of the demographic transition. We conclude by calling for a stronger inclusion of demographic variables in the distribution-sensitive analysis of global poverty.     

A Multidimensional Approach to Precarious Employment Among Young Workers in EU-28 Countries

This article uses a new multidimensional indicator to measure precariousness among young workers across all EU-28 countries. This indicator measures both the incidence and intensity of precariousness. The analysis has involved five dimensions: wages, type of contract, type of working day, disempowerment, and job insecurity. Our database is the European Union Labour Force Survey for the period 2009–2016. The main indication of precariousness is low wages. We find high rates of precariousness for Mediterranean countries (because of low wages and temporary contracts), Denmark (low wages), and the Netherlands (expansion of involuntary part-time jobs). Central European countries have moderate rates, and most Continental and Eastern countries have low rates. We also find that a higher level of education is related to a lower probability of having a precarious job. Finally, we find a greater probability of having a precarious job among women in most countries, and non-statistically significant differences by country of birth.

     

Slow‐fast dynamics in a model of population and resource growth

Models of the interaction of population, the economy, and the environment often contain nonlinear functional relationships and variables that move at different speeds. These properties foster apparent unpredictabilities in system behaviour. Using a simple deterministic model of demographic, economic and environmental interactions we illustrate the usefulness of geometric singular perturbation theory in environmental population economics. In contrast to local stability analysis, the theory of slow‐fast dynamics helps to gain new insights into the global behaviour of the system. In particular, the knowledge of the basins of attraction of the stationary states enables one to determine the regions of sustainable future paths of resources and population.     

Causal direction in a model of life satisfaction: The top-down/bottom-up controversy

In social indicator studies, there is some controversy about the causal direction between subjective well-being and domain-specific satisfaction variables; a “top-down” approach is distinguished from a “bottom-up” approach. In this paper, the effects in both directions are estimated in a model with reciprocal relationships as a starting model. It can then be determined which of the two effects for each pair of variables is strongest and which effect can be ignored in the model. This procedure is applied to four different datasets collected in the Netherlands, and to models with different exogenous variables. Comparing the best solutions obtained for all different models and datasets, it is shown that the direction of the effects is not consistent across models and datasets. We have to conclude that it is impossible to obtain a stable solution for the model of subjective well-being in this study. As a consequence, we also have to conclude that the results from other studies cannot be trusted in which the causal order in a model of subjective well-being is tested.     

The structural context of family welfare in the regions of Italy

A factor analysis of household-level attributes of welfare reveals three dimensions across the 20 regions of Italy: affluence, nuclear family oriented style of life, and basic consumption. Because the data on which these empirical patterns is based is normatively oriented, these dimensions conform to the definition of social indicators. The three dimensions of regional social structure that resulted from a separate factor analysis of variables selected from the point of view of structural theory were not so interpreted. These three structural dimensions — industrial-urban differentiation, agrarian rigidity, and central government subsidies — predict affluence, family oriented style of life and basic consumption respectively. This unexpectedly symmetrical result can be interpreted in causal or definitional terms.     

New Measures of Economic Insecurity Reveal its Expansion Into EU Middle Classes and Welfare States

Economic instability, social changes, and new social policies place economic insecurity high on the scholarly and political agenda. We contribute to these debates by proposing a new multidimensional, intertemporal measure of economic insecurity that accounts for both its multiplicity and its dynamism. First, we develop three theory-driven, multidimensional measures of economic insecurity. Principal Components Analysis validates the measure. Second, we develop a dynamic approach to insecurity, using longitudinal data and a newly revised headcount method. Third, we then use our new measures to analyze the distribution of insecurity in Europe. Our analysis shows that insecurity is widespread across Europe, even in low-inequality, encompassing welfare states. Moreover, it extends across income groups and occupational classes, reaching into the middle classes.

     

Non-poor Components of Population Growth and Immigration in the U.S., 1990–2010

Traditional measures of poverty are informative in indicating the degree of economic deprivation in a population at a cross-sectional point in time, but they do not consider growth in the size of the non-poverty population. We develop a measure of non-poverty population growth in order to explore whether it constitutes a useful indicator of an important demographic dynamic. We illustrate our approach with an analysis of the U.S. states using Census and American Community Survey data from 1990, 2000, and 2010. The results indicate that the extent to which the non-poor population increased across states is uncorrelated with the initial poverty rate as conventionally measured. Broken down by nativity, the findings further show that some states with official poverty rates above the national average (e.g., Arizona, Georgia, and Texas) nonetheless had some of the highest rates of non-poor population growth among less skilled immigrants. By contrast, other states with official poverty rates below the national average (e.g., Connecticut, New Hampshire, and Vermont) often had low rates of non-poor population growth among less skilled immigrants. These findings suggest that low initial poverty rates do not necessarily contribute substantially to the alleviation of global poverty through the immigration of less skilled persons from less developed nations. However, the rate of non-poor population growth among less skilled immigrants also appears to be uncorrelated with state variation in minimum wages even after taking into account population density and median home value.     

Well-Being in Italian Regions. Measures,Civil Society Consultation and Evidence

Efforts recently attempted to integrate various aspects of economic progress, environmental sustainability and social welfare into an aggregate measure of well-being share one major weakness concerning the identification of key aspects of well-being and of weights to aggregate these dimensions, they all suffer from lack of legitimacy. In this paper we present an innovative and well tested approach that attempts to overcome such limitation granting legitimacy through a broad consultation of civil society organisations. After a brief review of the state of the art, we present the methodology followed to build the QUARS (Index of Regional Quality of Development) and we point out strengths and weaknesses of our approach. We summarize the results according to the selected variables for Italian regions, we present the outcomes of our dissemination work and assess the robustness of the composite indicator.     

Improving response to an establishment survey through the use of web-push data collection methods

ABSTRACT

The web-push method has been shown to increase web response rates in general public surveys. Response rates from two waves of the Emergency Medical Services for Children Program’s Performance Measures Survey, a state-administered establishment survey, were compared to determine if the second wave's revised, centralized implementation strategy improved response rates and consistency across states. The centralized strategy included the web-push design; a carefully timed contacts; and a three-month timeline. The results of the centralized web-push method included a higher overall response rate for a three-month period (81.0% compared to 56.6%) as well as greater consistency in results across states.     

Interstate variations in teenage fertility

The extremely wide variation among states in adolescent childbearing is examined using indicators that represent high or low modernity, i.e., percent urban, percent fundamentalism, percent black, and region (South-non-South); the intermediate variables of factors affecting exposure to intercourse (percent married females 15 to 19); and the deliberate fertility control factor of induced abortion (the state abortion-to-live birth ratio). Eighty-six percent of the variance among states in the 1974 teenage fertility rates (females 15 to 19) is explained, with region the most powerful single indicator of fertility, followed by percent married and state abortion ratio.     

A Gender Wellbeing Composite Indicator: The Best-Worst Global Evaluation Approach

In this paper we present a new global evaluation methodology for constructing composite indicators. Given the limitations in the construction of wellbeing indicators that include a gender perspective, this paper proposes separate measures for men and women, using new linear programming models to improve the traditional Data Envelopment Analysis models. We obtain composite indicators using common weights (which are most and least favourable) so that the indicators’ values are able to discriminate between all units and provide a global vision of each one. This approach does not require prior knowledge of the weights for initial indicators, nor does it require a normalization method. Thus, the new composite indicator is less subjective than others. For the practical implementation of this proposal, we use the countries of the European Union as an example.     

Rainfall variations and child mortality in the Sahel: results from a comparative event history analysis in Burkina Faso and Mali

Over the last 40 years, the Sahel has seen a long-term downward trend in rainfall. The importance of ecological variables as factors affecting child survival in rural subsistence societies has already been emphasized, but little empirical evidence has been gathered to support this. This paper presents a comparative event history analysis aimed at understanding how rainfall variations may influence child mortality in two neighbouring countries, Burkina Faso and Mali. These countries are similar in terms of population dynamics, economy, livelihood, child mortality and rainfall conditions (i.e. strong south–north decreasing rainfall gradient). Individual data for both countries came from two detailed nationally representative retrospective surveys conducted in 2000. Rainfall data for the 1960–1998 time period were obtained from the Climatic Research Unit. This study shows that child survival in each country is related to specific patterns of rainfall variation across livelihood regions, highlighting the complex nature of environmental causality of child mortality.     

Trajectories of Employment Gaps of Refugees and Other Migrants: Evidence from Austria

This paper analyzes the labor market integration of non-European refugees originating from middle- and low-income countries for the period of 2009–2018 in Austria. We assess their probability of being employed relative to Austrian natives and compare it with that of other non-European migrants and European refugees and other immigrants from low- and middle-income non-EU countries. We draw on a register-based panel dataset covering the complete labor market careers of all individuals residing in Austria. We control for macrolevel explanatory variables (e.g., the labor market situation at the time and the place of settlement) and individual characteristics. The analysis shows that initial refugee employment gaps relative to natives are large in the first years, when labor market access is difficult. After a period of 7 years, the unconditional gap between refugees and natives declines to 30 percentage points, similar to that of other migrants, but the gap is still decreasing. After controlling for a set of explanatory variables, the conditional gap amounts to only 10 percentage points at that time. Moreover, our analysis provides insights into differences in employment gaps across population subgroups of immigrant groups and natives by gender, age, education level, and types of employment.

     

Determinants of Poverty and Their Variation Across the Poverty Spectrum: Evidence from Hong Kong,a High-Income Society with a High Poverty Level

This study aims to investigate into the determinants of poverty in Hong Kong. Previous research on poverty, which usually adopted a logistic regression model to examine individuals’ probabilities of being poor, could not adequately reveal the heterogeneity in experiences among people across the poverty spectrum, therefore has limited policy effort to address diverse needs of individuals struggling with poverty. In the present study, this concern is addressed by using a quantile regression model to examine the differential effects of the determinants of poverty across the poverty spectrum. Data were drawn from the Hong Kong Panel Survey for Poverty Alleviation (n?=?1668). Logistic regression indicated that being elderly, being female, not having a partner, from a single-parent household, not being employed, living in public rental housing, have lower educational attainment, and have poor self-rated health, increased the probability of being poor. Informational support was a protective factor of poverty, while several negative life events, such as having family member(s) with disabilities/chronic diseases and having financial burden, were risk factors of poverty. Quantile regression analysis was adopted to further examine the extent to which determinants of poverty unfold across poverty spectrum, which was captured by five groups of “extremely poor”, “deeply poor”, “at the poverty line”, “near poverty” and “marginally poor”. Quantile regression indicated that people living across the poverty spectrum were similarly affected by not having a partner, living in single-parent households and not working. However, extremely poor and deeply poor were more adversely affected by old age than those near poverty and marginally poor. It is also discovered that public rental housing buffered the poverty risks more in those who lived in deep poverty than those who were near poverty and marginally poor. University education protected the near poverty and marginally poor to a larger extent than those who were extremely poor and deeply poor. Information support also buffered the poverty risks, and people living across the poverty spectrum were equally benefited from it.

     

The Trade-off Between Poverty Reduction and Carbon Emissions,and the Role of Economic Growth and Inequality: An Empirical Cross-Country Analysis Using a Novel Indicator

Is it possible for countries to eradicate poverty while also meeting environmental goals? Despite the passage of international agreements calling for these issues to be addressed simultaneously, little is known about the direct relationship between them. This study addresses this gap by proposing a new and composite indicator that integrates measures for both poverty and environmental outcomes (carbon emissions) into a single variable, the carbon intensity of poverty reduction (CIPR). This variable defines the trade-off between the proportional changes of emissions per capita and of the share of the population above the poverty line. In parallel an analytic framework is developed to formulate propositions concerning the possible effects of growth and inequality on the CIPR. The propositions are tested empirically using data from 135 countries across a 30-year time period (1981–2012). The findings confirm that the carbon intensity of poverty reduction is heterogeneous across countries. This heterogeneity is partly explained by economic growth, which is found to have a negative effect on the CIPR up to a certain income level, defined here as a “turning point”. Above that turning point, economic growth increases the CIPR. By contrast, inequality reduction is shown to have a significant negative effect on the CIPR. This study contributes to the literature on sustainable development by analytically and quantitatively linking its three dimensions (social, economic and environmental) and by employing a composite indicator that directly measures the trade-off between poverty reduction and emission levels across countries.

     

Intercountry adoption in the new millennium; the ``quiet migration' revisited

Intercountry adoption is not usually seen as a matter for demographers, although articles in the International Migration Review have looked at international adoption as a migratory process. This article outlines the author's estimate of the number of intercountry adoptions world-wide, using data recorded by 18 receiving states in the 1990s. Data from selected receiving countries are used to estimate the number of adoptions from states of origin. Comparisons are made with data for 14 countries over the period 1980–89 collated by Kane (1993).The global estimate of at least 32,000 adoptions in 1998 is much higher than thenumbers usually cited and suggest a rise of fifty percent over the previous decade.Total numbers are dominated by adoptions to the United States and from China andRussia. However standardisation against population size or number of live birthssuggests that the highest rates among receiving states are to be found in Scandinavia,while the highest rates for states of origin are in countries of Eastern Europe, followedby Korea – countries typified by very low birth rates. The article ends with a discussion of the implications of these findings for the future of international controls and the implementation of the 1993 Hague Convention.