论人口素质在和谐社会发展中的作用

人口素质是社会历史发展的产物,它与社会的全面进步相联系,又给社会的全面发展以巨大的推动作用。和谐社会的发展离不开人口素质的提高。充分认识人口素质在和谐社会中的主导作用,将利于和谐社会的全面发展。人口素质的作用,可以概括为五个方面:人口科学文化素质有利于社会整体水平的提高,加速和谐社会的发展;人口政治素质能够调节社会矛盾,促进和谐社会的发展;人口身体素质能够推动经济进步,有助于和谐社会的发展;人口综合素质能够创造良好的人口环境,有利于和谐社会的发展;提高人口素质观的认识,确保和谐社会的发展。     

职业流动、人力资本对流动人口收入影响及其代际差异

基于2013年我国七个大城市“流动人口管理和服务对策研究”调查数据,使用OLS回归和分位数回归方法,实证分析了职业流动、人力资本对流动人口收入影响及其代际差异。结果显示：一是人力资本对流动人口收入水平有着显著正向影响。但人力资本对两代流动人口的收入影响不同,其中受教育年限、现职业工作年限对新生代流动人口收入的促进更大,在外务工年限对第一代流动人口收入的促进作用更大。二是职业流动与第二代流动人口的收入呈现显著相关性,然而并非线性的影响,而是呈现倒U型非线性模式;但职业流动对第一代流动人口收入影响不显著。文章最后结合研究得出的观点和结论,探讨了本项研究的政策启示。     

Assessment of the impact of changes related to the system transformation on the evolution of the process of mortality in Poland

"The article presents an attempt to make a quantitative evaluation of the impact of the environment on the rate of mortality, focusing on the group of stress-bearing factors that, according to some hypotheses, make up the set of potential, indirect determinants in the process of mortality. According to these opinions, the environment can be a source of different forms of stress. One stressor can be the social and economic status of individuals, being the function of the economic development of the region, another the instability of the social situation in the region. Both types of stress sources seem to be particularly adequate in the evaluation of the impact of this type of factor on the process of mortality in Poland in the period of system transformation."     

试析上海市人口老化过程中劳动适龄人口变动的社会经济影响

伴随上海市人口老龄化的逐步发展 ,会引起劳动适龄人口规模和人口年龄结构的变化。从而对社会经济发展构成直接影响。随着人口老龄化过程的推进 ,劳动适龄人口规模趋于缩小 ,其年龄结构趋于老化 ,由此造成劳动力短缺问题、劳动力负担沉重问题、劳动力老化问题。对政府储蓄总量 ,近期会增加 ,远期则会削弱其增长趋势 ,对个人储蓄 ,近期和远期都将增加     

The social consequences of economic cycles on nineteenth-century households and family life

This article investigates the consequences of rapid economic changes on the lives of the nineteenth-century people of Moncton Parish. First of all, the impact of changing economic conditions on critical socio-demographic variables is illustrated by changes in the composition of the foreigh-born population, the tendency to postpone marriage, and most dramatically, the postponement and limiting of child-birth. Secondly, a detailed examination of household and family structure further illustrates the effects of these major economic fluctuations on people's lives. In particular, the malleability of the boundaries of the household as it responds to the demands of the larger economy demonstrates that adaptation to these economic forces is necessary even at the most basic of social institutions — the household and family. For the people of Moncton Parish, the volatility of the economic life of the larger community fundamentally affected their personal lives.     

婚前同居对初婚年龄的影响研究 ——基于Heckman二阶段模型的分析

在现代社会中,初婚年龄持续攀升,婚前同居现象越来越多地出现。那么婚前同居与初婚年龄之间有没有关系?本文基于婚前同居对离婚影响的选择假说与经历假说进一步探讨两种假说与初婚年龄之间的关系。选择假说认为同居者自身特征促使他们追求思想解放,消极地影响着婚姻稳定性,因此与其同居伴侣之间并不想建立一个长期的契约。由此推测这些积极影响同居的特征因素会给结婚带来消极影响,婚前同居就会推延初婚年龄;经历假说认为共同生活的经历将会改变同居者对婚姻的认识,他们不再强烈地致力于追求婚姻的身份。他们将会接受婚前同居这种暂时性的本质。很多夫妇认为同居提供了一个婚姻的替代品,结婚的欲望由此下降。因此这也将推延初婚年龄。除两个假说外,同居者想要通过同居搜集更多对方的信息,这种想要更多地了解对方的想法也将推延初婚年龄。在理论分析的基础上,本文基于2010年CFPS抽样调查数据,采用Heckman二阶段模型纠正婚前同居的自选择性带来的偏误并检验婚前同居推延初婚年龄的研究假设。研究结果发现婚前同居使女性与男性的初婚年龄分别推迟了0.415岁与0.868岁。在控制婚前同居的自选择性后,婚前同居对女性与男性初婚年龄的影响仍然很大且显著,初婚年龄分别推迟了0.431岁与0.890岁,证明婚前同居将会提高初婚年龄。这进一步明晰了婚前同居在我国家庭形成过程中的作用。婚前同居对初婚年龄的推延作用无疑为我国全面二孩政策下出生人口数量增长带来消极影响。     

The ingestion in wolf spiders I. Capacity of gut ofLycosa pseudoannulata

Summary An wolf spider,Lycosa pseudoannulata, collected from the field were reared in test tubes supplied with fruit flies as the food, and the number and weight of fruit flies killed per unit time and the weight of residuum of killed flies were recorded. When the cumulative number of flies killed by a spider was plotted against time after the beginning of food supply, the angle of the curve obtained decreased gradually until a constant value. In this time, it seems that the gut of spider had saturated with food and the increase rate of number of flies killed reflects the rate of food disappeared from gut by assimilation and egestion. The amount of ingestion was obtained by subtracting the weight of residuum and the gain of live weight of the spider from the weight of killed flies. After the gut has saturated, the amount of food remained in the gut is considered to be equal to the capacity of gut, which is an essential factor in the study of predation. The amount of food disappearance from gut was also estimated. There was a linear relationship between the log body weight of spiders and the log capacity of gut. The linear relationship was also seen between the log total amount of ingestion and the log total amount of food disappeared from gut.     

New household projections for the united states

This paper reviews the methods used to prepare the new household projections for the United States that were recently issued by the Bureau of the Census and examines the effect on the resulting number of households of the assumptions made about future marriages and future proportions of household heads in the population.One population projection series was used, since all series are identical for the adult population. Marriage assumptions were generated by assuming various outcomes of the marriage squeeze (defined as the excess of females relative to the number of males in the main ages at marriage in the next few years). Assumptions about proportions of household heads were generated by assuming, in varying degrees, continuation of recent trends in these proportions.Projected changes in marriage and in the proportions of household heads in the population account for one-fourth to one-third of the projected increase in the number of households; the remaining increase is attributable to projected changes in the size and structure of the adult population. Varying the assumed proportions of household heads produces greater differences in the projected total number of households than does varying the marriage assumptions used here. Nevertheless, the various possible outcomes of the marriage squeeze, as represented by the assumptions used, produce significantly different projections of increases in the number of young husband-wife households.The most striking finding is that by 1985, proportions of household heads among the population not "married, spouse present" may well rise to such a level that over the long term, the smaller the number of persons who marry, the larger will be the number of households.     

Is There Any ‘Law of Requisite Variety’ in Construction of Indices for Complex Systems?

The issue of design of indicators for complex socio-economic systems, described by multiple characteristics (variables) is considered in this paper primarily from the point of view of the purpose, for which the indicators are developed and used, and the available instruments, which can be used to achieve this purpose. Hence, the paramount importance is assigned to the correspondence between the space of observed variables and the space of possible actions or instruments, as potentially leading to the design of the “optimum indicators”. The close association between the design of indicators and the available (or also designed) policy instruments is justified in the framework of the classical decision making feedback loop. The proposal is illustrated with the case of a group of models from the modelling project that was carried out at the Systems Research Institute, Polish Academy of Sciences, in close collaboration with the Institute of Geography and Spatial Organization, also of the Academy, devoted to the development and implementation of a system of forecasting models for a series of variables, characterising the socio-economic situation of the capital province of Masovia, and its particular administrative units.     

The Wellbeing of the Self’s Personality: A Structural Analysis

Leaning on the formal faceted definition of wellbeing (Levy and Guttman (1975) Social Indicators Research, 2, 361–388), a mapping sentence is provided for defining the universe of observations of the wellbeing of the self-expanding on personality aspects. The structure of the interrelationships among the variables of the expanded conceptualization of self’s personality is examined by the use of the SSA technique. The sample consists of 176 adult residents (20 years of age and over) from all parts of the city of Jerusalem, Israel. Results further verify the circular structure (radex) of personal wellbeing. The state of wellbeing-versus- wellbeing in the sense of possession of resources partition the space into two concentric belts, while the life domains of wellbeing play a polarizing role in partitioning the space into wedglike regions emanating from a common origin. Self’s personality domains-versus-self’s social environment domains serve as a rationale for the circular order. The expanded conceptualization of personal wellbeing enhance the earlier conceptualization of the 1975 study and makes possible the development of the theory of the structure of the wellbeing of the self in a systematic cumulative fashion.     

Employing the Components of the Human Development Index to Drive Resources to Educational Policies

A new form of composition of the indicators employed to generate the United Nations Human Development Index (HDI) is presented here. This form of composition is based on the assumption that random errors affect the measurement of each indicator. This assumption allows for replacing the vector of evaluations according to each indicator by vectors of probabilities of being the best or the worst according to such attribute. The probabilistic composition of such probabilities of preference according to each indicator into probabilities of being the best or the worst according to all of them generates indices that may unveil, on one hand, performances to be followed and, on the other hand, extreme conditions that an additive composition would hide. Differences between the results of application of the diverse forms of composition are examined in the case of the HDI and in the case of the districts version of the HDI employed to compare Brazilian municipalities. It is verified that the smallest correlation between the education enrolment rate and the other indicators in the Brazilian case enlarges such differences.     

城市社区生活不能自理老人居家养老生活质量评估指标体系探索

探讨城市社区生活不能自理居家老人生活质量评估理论,针对国内缺乏生活不能自理老人生活及养老状况的研究现状,在入户调查数据的基础上研究影响生活不能自理老人生活质量的因素,建立生活不能自理居家老人生活质量评估的理论框架,构建评估城市社区生活不能自理居家老人生活质量的指标体系,对上海市两个社区生活不能自理居家老人的生活质量进行评估和比较。     

西北地区人才资本结构的现状及其成因分析

在工业革命时期人力资本是经济增长和经济发展的内生性要素和“引擎”。而在知识经济时代人才资本将成为经济发展的决定性因素。改革开放以来,西北地区一些省份人才的数量与质量都处于全国的前几位,但人才大省与经济穷省却相伴而随。其根本的原因是人力资本对经济的促进作用,不完全取决于人才的数量、甚至质量,在很大程度上取决于人才资本结构。文章以西北地区人才资本的“梯度流”与“逆梯度流”及“人才高消费”现象作为切入点,探索了西北地区的人才资本结构的现状及成因剖析。     

非法进行节育手术罪在实践中的几个问题

近年来,一些不具有医生执业资格的人擅自为他人进行节育手术,严重破坏了国家的计划生育政策,也威胁了广大人民群众的身体健康。本文通过对非法进行节育手术罪中犯罪主体的范围、犯罪客观方面的概括和表述、该罪各档次法定刑的适用情节、非法行医过程中进行的破坏节育手术的行为应如何定性等一些问题的具体分析,提出了相应的解决办法,以期对司法实践有所裨益。     

农村留守儿童社会化及其对策研究--以家庭功能的弱化为基本视角

家庭功能的弱化是农村留守儿童社会化分析中不可忽视的视角。本文从这一视角出发,结合调查个案分析了家庭功能弱化的表现及其对留守儿童社会化的诸多影响并就留守儿童社会化问题的对策展开了分析。     

论中国城市规模分布的区域差异

本文分析了建国以后中国三大地区的城市增长状况 ,三大地区的城市规模分布特征及其成因 ,探讨了中国中、西部地区城市规模结构的缺陷可能给对外开放和西部大开发带来的负面影响 ,同时指出了“控制大城市规模”的城市发展方针与对外开放政策、社会主义市场经济体制的建立以及西部大开发战略等的矛盾。本文认为 :大城市是地区经济发展的“增长极” ,中、西部地区缺少具有较大影响范围的大城市和特大城市 ,使得这些地区在市场经济条件下和改革开放过程中的创新机会和领先条件大为减少 ,而且会影响到西部大开发战略的顺利实施     

户籍管制放松、就读地选择与进城家庭教育支出

本文利用中国家庭收入项目调查数据(CHIP2007),运用Two-Part模型研究户籍管制放松是否影响以及如何影响有7~16岁在读子女进城家庭的教育支出行为。研究发现,户籍管制放松会影响进城家庭子女就读地选择;对于有子女在城市就读的进城家庭,户籍管制放松对其教育支出水平的影响取决于家庭收入,放松户籍管制将会降低低收入进城家庭的教育支出份额,但会提高高收入进城家庭的教育支出份额,具体影响大小因家庭收入水平的不同而存在差异;在总样本均值处,户籍管制放松1个百分点,进城家庭教育支出将减少1.3945个百分点。在推进新型城镇化建设的背景下,放松户籍管制的意义不仅在于促进教育公平,更在于加快人口城镇化步伐、改善进城家庭消费结构和提振国内消费。     

中国人力资本空间分布差异的度量与分解

教育是人力资本形成的重要途径,本文在研究中国人力资本空间分布差异时,用平均受教育年限这一指标来表示人力资本的状况．并且运用了三种衡量人力资本空间分布差异的统计指数估算了我国人力资本空间分布的差异状况。通过对统计指数的分解．发现组内人力资本分布差异对人力资本空间分布总差异的贡献率远大于组间人力资本分布差异的贡献率;通过建立模型回归分析。发现省际间的教育经费差异对人力资本空间分布总差异的影响并不显著。这些结论对于我国今后人力资本政策的合理调整和科学规划有重要意义。     

Remarks on the analysis of causal relationships in population research

The problem of determining cause and effect is one of the oldest in the social sciences, where laboratory experimentation is generally not possible. This article provides a perspective on the analysis of causal relationships in population research that draws upon recent discussions of this issue in the field of economics. Within economics, thinking about causal estimation has shifted dramatically in the past decade toward a more pessimistic reading of what is possible and a retreat in the ambitiousness of claims of causal determination. In this article, the framework that underlies this conclusion is presented, the central identification problem is discussed in detail, and examples from the field of population research are given. Some of the more important aspects of this framework are related to the problem of the variability of causal effects for different individuals; the relationships among structural forms, reduced forms, and knowledge of mechanisms; the problem of internal versus external validity and the related issue of extrapolation; and the importance of theory and outside evidence.     

甘肃老年人才资源开发的分析及对策建议

在当前老龄化社会和甘肃人才资源紧缺的情况下,充分开发利用老年人才资源不失为一种快速、实效的好方法。本文针对甘肃省人才的现状,通过对甘肃老年人才资源开发利用的必要性进行分析,提出了相应的开发思路和对策。