我国工业部门能源消费强度特征分析及分解

本文在对我国工业部门能源消费强度特征进行比较分析的基础上,利用完全因素分解模型实证分析了我国工业能源强度下降的真实原因,结果显示,历年能耗强度的下降主要来自于能源利用效率的提高,结构因素对强度的影响存在双向作用。     

基于能源消费的长三角地区碳排放趋势研究

采用IPCC碳排放技术指南提供的能源消费碳排放计算公式对长三角地区1996年—2010年能源消费的碳排放量进行计算,在此基础上分别建立灰色预测GM（1,1）模型和Gompertz曲线模型预测和分析长三角地区未来碳排放趋势。长三角地区能源消费碳排放量正处于而且还将处于持续增长阶段,短期内难以达到峰值;长三角地区应积极发展新能源,逐步降低煤炭在能源消费中的比重,进一步优化能源消费结构,控制和降低能源消费碳排放量。     

劳工标准与当前我国的出口贸易问题研究

随着世界的进步,国际社会对于企业的社会责任问题越来越关注。WTO已经把建立“社会条款”使贸易与劳工标准挂钩作为一个议题在最近的几个回合谈判中加以讨论,尽管还没有达成一致,但是它的实施也只不过是时间问题。但对于以中国为代表的以低劳工成本作为比较优势的发展中国家来说,劳工标准对其无异于是一种新的贸易壁垒,使发展中国家受到一定的经济威胁。为了降低劳工标准所带来的不利影响,从宏观层面上我们要在WTO多边框架下积极应对劳工标准问题,从中观层面上我们要积极发挥行业协会、进出口高层中介等中介组织在规范企业社会责任主导的作用;从微观层面上要充分认识积极参与国际劳工标准认证。     

资源型省份经济增长与生态足迹的关系研究——来自甘肃省的实证分析

随着经济的迅速发展,越来越多的经济体认识到粗犷型发展方式的弊端,资源型省份不能靠无限制开采矿物资源来维持经济的高速增长。为了解决严重的环境问题,如何将经济建设和环境保护结合起来便成为学者们研究热点问题之一。用人均生态足迹来反映地区的环境状况,用地区总量GDP来反映地区经济增长速度,首先计算出生态足迹,再用向量自回归模型来估算二者的关系,以期为资源型省份制定经济发展政策措施提供依据。结果显示：甘肃省的人均生态足迹呈现明显的增加趋势,说明甘肃省的生态环境现状不容乐观。另外,二者的二阶差分是平稳序列,存在相关关系。     

中印能源政策导向的差异:基于经济增长与能耗关系的实证研究

据国际能源署预测,印度将在今后20年内取代中国成为世界能源消费增量最大的国家。本文将中印GDP和能源消费数据视为经济增长政策和能源政策的结果,采用中印双方历史数据分析经济增长政策和能源政策之间的关系,并建立模型检验分析结果。本文认为,中国的经济增长政策与能源政策都具有独立或主动性质,而印度经济增长政策是主导,而能源政策以支持增长为主。中印能源政策主导方向差异是印度能源消费将保持相对较高增长的主要原因,而中印经济发展水平和经济结构差异是影响能源政策导向的基础。     

我国出口贸易突破技术壁垒的对策研究

在传统的贸易壁垒被不断削弱的同时,更为隐蔽的技术贸易壁垒正在悄然兴起.加入WTO后,随着我国综合国力的进一步增强,出口贸易的不断增长,发达国家运用技术壁垒来"扼制"我国产品向国外市场的扩张,尤其是向其本国市场渗透的声势会与日俱增.因此,了解掌握应对措施,尽可能地减少这种不利的影响,对我国出口贸易的正常健康发展是十分必要的.     

辽宁省能源消费与低碳经济发展分析

作为老工业基地的辽宁,经济增长过度依赖以煤炭为主的能源消耗模式,而随着过去的"资源优势"的日渐消失以及越来越多环境问题的出现,如何实现社会、经济、自然的协调与可持续发展,如何确定辽宁低碳经济发展的战略方向,成为老工业基地振兴要解决的首要难题.针对以第二产业为主的高能耗消费模式,辽宁应从加快产业结构调整入手,发展第三产业;降低以钢铁业为代表的重点工业领域的单位产值能耗、提高能源使用效率;加强可再生能源的开发和利用,由此提高政府、企业和大众的生态责任意识,并倡导低碳消费观念.     

构建我国能源政策体系的思考

能源作为一种重要的战略资源,在国家的经济社会发展过程中起着关键性的作用。我国能源政策目前存在节能政策受阻、宏观能源管理体制不顺等多方面问题,迫切需要制定科学合理的能源政策,加强能源的系统性和战略性管理。从能源供给政策、能源消费政策、能源环境政策、能源安全政策四个方面构建能源政策体系具有很强的理论和实践意义。     

东盟五国能源消费、经济增长与碳排放——基于环境库兹涅茨曲线的实证研究

基于环境库兹涅茨曲线构建能源—经济—碳排放关系的碳排放模型,采用面板协整检验和面板因果关系检验方法,对东盟五国1971～2007年能源消费、经济增长与碳排放三者关系进行实证分析。结果表明,能源消费与经济增长之间在短期和长期均存在单向的格兰杰因果关系。另外,能源消费与二氧化碳排放之间在短期和长期也都存在单向的格兰杰因果关系。     

政府干预下影响中国能源消费的因素研究──基于省域面板数据的实证分析

能源是国民经济发展和社会进步的重要物质基础,在经济增长初期,能源的投入能够带动经济快速增长;而当经济增长到一定阶段以后,由于能源本身的不可再生性,能源消费的各类问题开始得到关注。基于此,文章构建我国29个省区市1990²012年面板数据库,并运用协整分析、面板误差修正模型及完全修正OLS和动态OLS方法,考察在政府看得见的手的干预下,影响能源消费的主要因素。研究结果表明,经济增长是所有影响能源消费因素中较为主要的因素,且在产业结构和就业结构中第二产业及其就业量的高比重也是能源消费量偏高的主要因素。相比之下,对外贸易、外商直接投资等因素对能源消费的影响则相对较弱。此外,政府干预在长期内并不理想,不但没有实现既定节能目标,反而促进了能源消费的增加。因此,政府应更多地通过技术进步、自主创新等实现经济增长对能源消费的影响;与此同时,通过降低第二产业的比重来间接优化产业结构,从而提高能源利用率。     

The relationship between New Zealand's climate,energy, and the economy to 2025

Abstract

This study looks at the effect of current climate variability and projected future climate change to 2025 on New Zealand's energy industry (mainly electricity supply and demand) and at the wider economic implications of these effects. Electricity demand is modulated by climate largely through temperature, while electricity supply is modulated largely through rainfall and inflows to the major hydroelectricity‐generating lakes in the South Island. Six climate scenarios are examined with an energy model to determine the change in the demand for energy and the change in the composition of energy supply, especially with regard to the mix of electricity generation. The output from this model is then used as an input to a multi‐industry general equilibrium model of the New Zealand economy.

The modelling demonstrates that while the expected effects of projected climate change on the energy industry over the next two decades are reasonably significant, the flow‐on effects from the energy to the wider economy are negligible, albeit slightly favourable. Modelling of the effects of climate variability, which includes unusually cold years, unusually warm years, and variable precipitation, however, shows that unexpected adverse events do have a measurable economic impact, particularly if wage rates are inflexible. Export industries are particularly disadvantaged by higher energy costs, implying a need for adequate reserve generation capacity. Just how much reserve capacity is optimal is a topic for further research.

Climate change scenarios to 2050 and 2100 show much greater climatic effects than are expected over the next 20 years. These have not been modelled as the types and costs of electricity generation technologies that might become available beyond 20 years are extremely uncertain.     

Debt management in a small open economy: A theoretical and an empirical study for Belgium

This article analyzes the effects of debt management and its consequence for the control of base money in a small open economy (Belgium). The study compares the effects obtained from a small theoretical model with the results of a larger empirical model.The theoretical model focuses on the financing of government by money operation, on the bond rate, and on the international reserve of the Central Bank.The empirical model is a medium-term one, including the demand and the supply sectors of the economy and permitting simultaneous analysis of real and financial variables.The effects of an endogeneous or exogenous debt management have been studied by numerical simulation of modification in the public expenditure, the world trade, and the discount rate.     

Poverty,income inequality and externalised problem behaviours of children: an empirical study in Korea

The primary purpose of this study is to examine the effects of neighbourhood poverty and income inequality on children's externalised problem behaviours in Korea. For the analysis, we used the National Survey of Children and Youth data and employed a multilevel analysis method. The results show that income inequality level of a community is a significant factor in increasing children's externalised problem behaviours. When controlled for income inequality, poverty itself was not significantly related to the level of children's externalised problem behaviours. We provide social welfare practice and policy implications of the findings in the paper.     

The causal relationship among electricity consumption,economic growth and capital stock in Iran

Due to the progress in industries, electricity consumption (EC) plays a vital role in economic growth (EG) as one of the important components of production. Furthermore, the influence of capital stock (CS) and labor is significant in EG. The main purpose of this paper is to examine causality and relationship among EG, EC, and CS, to forecast these variables and to propose related policy viewpoints for Iran. The empirical findings indicate the lack of short-run causality between pairwise variables. The results of standard Granger-causality (SGC) test demonstrate a bi-directional long-run causality between EC and EG and a uni-directional long-run causality from EC to CS. To forecast variables, the vector auto regression (VAR) model is estimated using logged variables. The Ariño and Franses approach is applied to transform time series data and forecast variables. The performance of the estimated VAR model is investigated and it clarified a highly accurate estimation with mean absolute percentage errors (MAPEs) of less than 4% for all variables. The results of the impulse response function (IRF) analysis indicate the dynamic behavior of long-run causalities. Therefore, to reduce EC and avoid negative impact on EG, Iran should adopt appropriate and affordable policies to raise efficiency optimization of EC. Finally, four policies including privatization, industrialization, supervision of banking resources and allocation of credits and liberalization of electricity prices are proposed.     

The relationship between ethnicity and fertility in New Zealand

While there is a global shift towards smaller families, some groups maintain relatively high fertility rates. The 2013 New Zealand census data were used to investigate the nature of fertility between ethnicities in New Zealand. The NZ Deprivation Index 2013 was used as a measure of socioeconomic status to determine the relationships with fertility. The results mirror research outside of New Zealand in that socioeconomic status is inversely correlated to fertility. Using crude average fertility rates, sole-ethnicity Pasifika and Māori ethnic groups still have substantially higher fertility than sole-ethnicity Europeans and Asians ethnic groups, even when simultaneously accounting for age, socioeconomic status, education, and religious affiliation. Christians have more children than individuals reportedly without any religion, and fertility rates drop on average for mothers who have higher formal qualifications. Our findings suggest that cultural, or other ethnic-specific factors differentially affect fertility for Māori, Pasifika, New Zealand European, and Asians as aggregated ethnic categories, respectively.     

Do hours matter? The relationship between motivation and study intensity in learners of English in Scotland

This paper examines the impact of English language learners’ motivation on their choice of study intensity using data from a national survey of learners in publicly funded English for Speakers of Other Languages (ESOL) courses across Scotland. In particular, the motivation of learners attending only a few hours per week (i.e. very part-time learners) is compared with those attending for more hours. Our study found that there are differences in motivation and aspiration amongst very part-time and part-time or full-time learners but also that employment and child care may have as much influence as motivation in causing learners to enrol on very part-time English classes. The findings relating to these learners in our study present a particular challenge to ESOL providers which offer only very part-time courses.     

The distinctive features of women in the Australian bankruptcy system: An empirical study

According to data published by Australian Financial Security Authority (AFSA), Australian women and men offer strikingly similar reasons for their entry into bankruptcy. Yet a more detailed analysis of AFSA's data indicates that women and men often go bankrupt in very different social and economic circumstances. This empirical study draws upon a unique dataset, obtained from AFSA, containing the de‐identified records of more than 28,000 individuals. It also draws upon a series of focus groups with the staff of three nonprofit organisations, including financial counsellors and consumer solicitors. It finds that, in general, women in bankruptcy are likely to be economically disadvantaged, relative to men, as measured by income, access to wages, reliance on government benefits, real estate ownership and utilities debt. It also finds that women in bankruptcy are much more likely than men to be single with dependants and that these women experience a greater degree of gendered disadvantage than other women in the bankruptcy system.     

On the relationship between the population structure and national economic development in China

The authors examine the relationship between population reproduction and the production of material goods, with particular reference to the effect of changes in the age composition of the population on the national economy and national income. An analysis of the population structure of China is presented, with consideration given to age characteristics, occupation, and urban and rural population. Suggestions for improving the population structure to achieve maximum rates of economic development are presented. Regional differences in population structure are also discussed.     

The relationship among CO2 emissions,electricity power consumption and GDP in OECD countries

This paper proposes a panel vector error correction model investigation of a quadratic relationship linking CO₂ emissions, GDP levels and electric power consumption. We find that two independent long-run relationships emerge from the data. Since the null of homogeneity across units with regard to long-run elasticities is strongly rejected, we proceed by clustering countries according to the signs of the estimated coefficients. The approach allows us to form three groups: in the first there is evidence of an optimistic scenario, where both CO₂ emissions and electric power consumption are bound to decrease in the long-run. An optimistic scenario for emissions reduction is also provided in the second cluster where, however, the long-run relationship between income and electric power consumption shows an U-shaped pattern, instead. Finally, the third cluster can be associated with a much worrying scenario where per capita CO₂ is expected to grow with income. A joint consideration of long-run parameters and causality links allows us to propose cluster-tailored policy suggestions.