从防范非制度性风险看促进非公有制经济和谐发展

在“非公有制企业36条”出台后,有关长期困扰非公企业发展的一些制度性因素将会逐步解决,但一些可能影响其发展的非制度性风险也不容忽视,如宏观调控和产业结构调整的风险、与国有经济和外资经济同台竞争的风险、融资与构建现代企业机制的风险以及技术创新和技术工人持续供给能力不足的风险等,忽视这些非制度性因素的客观存在,非公经济的发展道路难保一帆风顺。     

科技型中小企业技术创新模式选择研究

技术创新已成为科技型中小企业维持竞争优势的不竭源泉,技术创新模式的选择也成为其提高竞争优势的重要环节。基于冰山理论,本文以科技型中小企业技术创新为主线,将影响科技型中小企业技术创新模式选择的因素划分为显性和隐性两个关键因素,在此基础上,利用层次分析法—模糊综合评价法构建出科技型中小企业技术创新模式选择评价模型,并选举HD公司进行了实证研究。实证结果显示,科技型中小企业应该依据自身的显性和隐性综合实力以及能够承担的风险,选择适合的技术创新模式,如此才能使企业保持持续创新活力和竞争优势。     

军民结合自主创新风险评价研究

高新技术含量的军品与民品两用化的趋势日益明显,军转民、民转军、军民结合发展已经成为特别关注的问题,面对市场经济的发展和国防建设的新要求,必须提高军民结合自主创新能力,加大对在自主创新过程中风险的认识和防范的力度,因此对自助创新风险做出客观的评价,对于推进军民结合具有重要意义。军民结合自主创新的影响因素主要由宏观、微观经济形势、政策体制、领导者能力、研发水平、资金等多方面构成,其面临的风险有形式风险、技术风险、市场风险、财务风险、经营风险、宏观政策等风险,通过未确知测度模型对军民结合自主创新风险进行评价,确定各级影响因子及其权重,进行计算和分析,为控制风险和指导决策方面提供直接依据。     

风险条件下创业者决策行为的理论与实证研究

不少学者曾经从风险倾向、风险感知、创业者禀赋、预期回报以及环境等不同角度对创业者的风险决策行为进行过一定的研究,但在国内这还是一个鲜有涉及的议题。通过文献综述与问卷调查统计分析表明,风险倾向、创业者禀赋以及环境因素对创业决策风险行为都没有显著的影响作用;风险感知对创业决策是负影响作用,即感知到的风险越小,越有可能做出创业的决策;预期回报对创业决策是正面影响作用,也就是说预期回报越高,做出创业决策的可能性越大。因此风险感知与预期回报是创业决策风险行为的两个最直接、最显著的影响因素,而这恰好符合了行为经济学的经典决策模型。     

美日政府技术创新支持政策的比较及对我国的启示

美日政府技术创新支持政策差异主要体现在三方面:就政府补贴政策来看,美国主要依靠市场力量实现资源的有效配置,政府更多的是对研究开发活动和技术创新企业提供贷款担保,而很少提供直接资助.日本政府则直接干预企业的研发活动,实行直接的经济补贴,代替市场规划产业和技术的发展方向、速度和规模;就税收优惠政策看,美日两国都有完备的技术创新税收优惠政策体系.但是由于美日经济体制和文化的差异,税收优惠政策也不尽相同;就风险投资政策来看,美国对技术创新的风险投资完全建立在市场机制基础上,企业的风险资本很少受到银行业和保险的左右,因而能够更客观灵活地选择技术创新项目.而日本由于风险投资制度的不完善,很难把风险资本集中在高技术企业的技术创新活动上,这方面日本处于劣势.借鉴美日两国创新支持政策优劣差异,对我国创新支持政策的构建无疑有着很好的启示.     

技术创新项目组合优化投资决策研究

技术创新是现代经济增长的主要源泉,也是提高企业竞争力、促进企业持续发展的重要途径。技术创新项目组合优化的核心内容是进行项目组合选择,即通过对建立收益性因素和风险性因素评价指标体系,确定其评价基准,运用层次分析法计算出收益性因素的综合分数值和风险性因素的风险系数值,在此基础上建立以技术创新项目组合收益极大化为目标函数,组合后总的风险系数值控制在一定的风险水平下和投资有限为约束条件的0-1整数规划模型。     

社会风险管理中的公共信息与政府决策

社会风险管理中的公共信息与政府决策表明,公共信息在政府做社会风险决策中具有重要的价值。社会风险决策是社会风险管理中政府根据所获得的各种社会风险公共信息,排除社会风险决策所存在的各种不确定性因素,做出最终决定的过程。社会风险管理中公共信息在社会风险决策中对政府提前预防、有效规避社会风险具有重要的指导意义。充分发挥公共信息在社会风险决策中的重要作用,才能进一步发挥政府在突发社会风险时的决策作用,有效规避社会风险。本文对公共信息在社会风险管理中政府社会风险决策中的价值表现及其运用作了初步探讨。     

浅论企业财务风险及其防范

本文认为企业在经营中存在着一定的财务风险,包括筹资风险、投资风险、资金回收风险、收益分配风险。要防范企业财务风险,必须做到:要树立动态分析观念;适度负债,合理安排资本结构;认真分析财务管理的宏观环境及其变化情况,提高企业对财务管理环境变化的适应能力和应变能力;实行多元化经营分散企业风险;采用风险转移法来降低企业风险;做好还款计划和准备,合理确定期限、还款方式及时间;加强资产管理,提高运营能力,增强盈利水平。     

国际风险资本进入中国的作用与影响分析

国际风险资本进入中国是九十年代新出现的一种投资行为 ,本文在分析国际风险资本在中国的总体概况基础上 ,探讨了国际风险资本的进入对中国风险投资业的发展、对促进我国中小科技企业发展的技术创新、对我国的资本市场开放与监管、对我国知识产权的威胁等方面的作用与影响 ,以便我们制订相应对策     

加速风险投资业发展促进企业的技术创新

针对我国目前风险投资业的发展现状和存在问题，为了加速我国风险投资业的发展，从而促进企业技术创新，应该努力拓宽企业技术创新资金的来源渠道；建立以企业为核心的多元化技术创新体系，鼓励民营科技企业技术创新的快速发展；充分发挥政府职能，积极营造良好的风险投资和技术创新的外围环境。     

审计风险补偿金理论分析

事务所对于风险偏好不同 ,而采用收取高于收费水平的风险补偿金的方法来回避高风险。在SimunicandStein提出的审计收费的单期简单模型的前提下 ,进行实证研究。是对实际收费或者实验性案例分析中的期望收费进行各影响因素的回归分析 ,找出解释能力较强的显著因素。PrattandStice的结果显示 ,在存在审计风险范畴以外的经营风险的条件下 ,审计师的收费中的确含有风险补偿的部分。     

Background Risks and the Value of a Statistical Life

We examine the effects of background mortality and financial risks on an individual's willingness to pay to reduce his mortality risk (the value of statistical life or VSL). Under reasonable assumptions about risk aversion and prudence with respect to wealth in the event of survival and with respect to bequests in the event of death, background mortality and financial risks decrease VSL. The effects of large mortality or financial risks on VSL can be substantial, but the effects of small background risks are negligible. These results suggest that the commonplace failure to account for background risk in evaluating VSL is unlikely to produce substantial bias in most applications.     

Endogenous risks and the risk premium

This note tries to correct a deficiency of the microeconomic literature on decision making under uncertainty. Indeed, when considering meaningful comparative statics results in situations where risks are at least partially controllable (endogenous), this literature has mostly relied upon the traditional Arrow-Pratt risk aversion functions and has paid very little attention to the definition of the risk premium. However when they defined the risk premium and the risk aversion functions, Arrow and Pratt considered only roulette gambles, i.e. risks totally exogenous to the individual. This note highlights the fact that several definitions of the risk premium may be proposed for endogenous risks. Two of them, already used in the literature, do not preserve the intuitively-appealing properties of the Arrow-Pratt risk premium. An alternative definition is then proposed. It is shown that this new definition of the risk premium applied to endogenous risks exhibits the properties generally admitted for roulette gambles.The three authors have benefitted from Ph. Caperaa's advice and from a referee's comments.     

Buying Insurance for Disaster-Type Risks: Experimental Evidence

This paper presents a series of experiments that confront subjects with low probability, high loss situations. A rich parameter set is examined and we find subjects respond to low probability, high loss risks in predictable ways. As loss events become more likely, or loss amounts get larger, or the cost of insurance falls, subjects are more likely to buy indemnifying insurance, even for the class of low probability risks that usually presents problems for standard expected utility theory. A novel application of Cameron's method to estimate willingness to pay from dichotomous choice responses allows us to estimate willingness to pay for insurance. We do not observe the bimodal distribution of bids found in other studies of similar risk situations.     

Understanding long-term environmental risks

How well we manage long-term environmental risks depends on how well we understand them. Whether the risk managers are experts or laypeople, that understanding is typically limited. As a result, people must rely on judgment when making decisions about risks. Estimating how big risks are and how much reducing them is worth is an intellectual skill. After reviewing the behavioral principles that govern how people acquire such skills, this article offers several proposals for facilitating learning abut risks by improving the ways in which scientific data are created or presented. It also describes some pitfalls facing attempts to determine the quality of other people's understanding of risks, whether through direct study or more casual observation.Preparation of this article was supported by National Science Foundation Grant SES-8846459. It is gratefully acknowledged. The opinions expressed are those of the author.     

国有商业银行面临的主要操作风险及防范对策

随着国有商业银行各项改革的不断深化,各银行在信用风险和市场风险的管理方面都取得了一定的成效,但在操作风险的管理方面还处于起步阶段,因此,必须全面提高银行操作风险的管理水平,这样才能有效地保证改革的胜利成果。要有效地管理操作风险,必须将其真正纳入全面风险管理的范畴,实施全面的股份制改革和组织架构改造,严格加强内部控制管理,应用信息技术建立操作风险模型和监控系统,培养专业化的人才队伍。     

中国基金热的冷思考

2006年无疑是中国基金最引人注目的一年,在这一年中,基金收益不断上涨,基金销售异常火爆,基金市场空前繁荣。基金业的迅速发展有其内在原因,但也有非理性的一面,这种非理性的上涨背后隐藏着深刻的危机。充分认识并及时防范其风险尤为重要。文章对当前基金市场非理性加以分析,并提出预防风险相关制度安排,引导基金业又好又快地健康发展。     

转型社会下的多重复合性风险——三城市公众风险感知状况的调查分析

在社会转型期,中国公众的主观风险感知呈现地区差异和多重复合等特点,三重复合-高度不确定性风险、两重复合-中度不确定性风险和单重-低度不确定性风险三种结构的社会风险共存。研究发现,公众普遍对低不确定性的单重风险感知最高,对高不确定性的三重风险感知最低;教育水平较高、社会地位较高的群体对高不确定性三重风险的感知程度较高,底层社会群体则对低不确定性单重风险的感知程度较高。从公众在三种感知结构的分布情况来看,中国公众的风险感知包含了对转型社会多重风险并存、交互影响和交互作用的认识,即成为中国社会转型过程的风险投射。     

Risk communication and attitude change: Taiwan's national debate over nuclear power

This article reports the first analysis of the effects of a national risk-communication program that disseminated the facts about the risks associated with nuclear power plants. It relies upon a unique set of circumstances in Taiwan. The state-operated power corporation sponsored a national debate in an effort to promote greater public consensus on the need for a fourth nuclear power plant. This analysis uses statedrisk perceptions and attitudes toward the plant to evaluate the effect of the debate. The results are based on a panel of households interviewed before and after the debate. They suggest that the debate did not reduce respondents' perceived risks from nuclear power and had little perceptible effect on the attitude changes of our sample. The only systematic influences detected on the observed attitude changes imply that respondents reacted counter to the debate's objectives, and thus the debate seems likely to continue to erode support for the new plant.The authors are, respectively, Associate Research Fellow, Institute of Economics, Academic Sinica; and University Distinguished Professor of Economics, North Carolina State University, and Resources for the Future University Fellow. Thanks are due Jin Long Liu for his excellent research assistance in developing these results, to Kip Viscusi for constructive comments, and to Barbara Scott for her helpful editing of earlier drafts of this article. Partial support for Smith's research was provided by National Science Foundation grant SES-8911372.     

党内基层民主建设风险管理研究

党内基层民主的风险如何研判,是目前民主建设急需研究的一项基础内容.本文以层次分析法为基本路径,分析了党内基层民主建设的风险体系,对风险进行了认定与分类;对风险体系中最为切要、最具联系性的系统性风险进行了研究,并对风险的发展趋势进行了分析.