How to study political activists: A petition survey approach

A major challenge for social movement and political campaign studies is generating large, representative samples of political activists. This paper outlines a strategy of surveying those who participate in a common, baseline form of political action: signing petitions. Similar to protest surveys, signing a petition constitutes a more baseline low cost/low risk form of political activism. In 26 states in the U.S. petition lists are public record and, with modest effort, can be used to study a wide variety of issues, groups and campaigns. We outline the steps and costs involved in such a petition survey and how to improve response rate. To assess response bias, we compare demographic and political affiliation measures acquired from a marketing analytics company (Experian) for respondents and non-respondents to our survey of petition signers for two state-level initiative elections, finding only modest and interpretable response bias. The methods presented here have broader implications for survey research in general.     

Behind the ethnic–civic distinction: Public attitudes towards immigrants’ political rights in the Netherlands

Public opinion research has sought to distinguish between ethnic and civic conceptions of citizenship and examined the differential associations of these conceptions with policy preferences in the realm of immigration. What has not been examined empirically is why exactly these conceptions are related to people’s preferences. In two survey studies conducted among national samples of native Dutch we tested the proposition that the endorsement of ethnic citizenship is related to lower acceptance of Muslim immigrant rights (Study 1) and their political participation (Study 2) because of a weaker normative sense of common national belonging and higher adherence to autochthony (primo-occupancy) beliefs. In contrast, the endorsement of civic citizenship was expected to be associated with higher acceptance of Muslim immigrant rights and their political participation because of a stronger sense of common belonging and lower belief in autochthony. The findings of the two studies are similar and in support of these expectations.     

Using geocoded survey data to improve the accuracy of multilevel small area synthetic estimates

This paper examines the secondary data requirements for multilevel small area synthetic estimation (ML-SASE). This research method uses secondary survey data sets as source data for statistical models. The parameters of these models are used to generate data for small areas. The paper assesses the impact of knowing the geographical location of survey respondents on the accuracy of estimates, moving beyond debating the generic merits of geocoded social survey datasets to examine quantitatively the hypothesis that knowing the approximate location of respondents can improve the accuracy of the resultant estimates. Four sets of synthetic estimates are generated to predict expected levels of limiting long term illnesses using different levels of knowledge about respondent location. The estimates were compared to comprehensive census data on limiting long term illness (LLTI). Estimates based on fully geocoded data were more accurate than estimates based on data that did not include geocodes.     

互联网对社会运动的影响机制阐释

互联网业已成为群体行动的舆论平台和发生渠道,通过资源动员、政治机会结构的供给与共识解读及建构,促使网络社会运动的专业化与草根化并行的发展趋势。围绕国家——社会关系的核心逻辑,以资源动员、政治过程和框架建构等理论范式为研究框架,分析在我国社会转型的背景下,政治机会结构与群体行动的互动与平衡,剖析网络社会运动的发生机理,并探索促使其有效发生的制度性资源配置的合理化路径。     

高校教育舆情研究论略:热点、问题与展望

当前,我国高校教育舆情研究呈现出若干热点领域,以教育满意度研究,教育舆情形成、传播与变动机理研究,舆情与思想政治教育工作研究,高校群体性事件与舆情预警、监测和应急研究以及高校舆情引导与管理机制研究等五个领域为代表。由于研究范式的缺失,该研究在理论体系、研究方法、操作规则等三方面还存在着问题。因此,高校教育舆情研究必须实现研究对象、目的、方法、过程和结果等五个层面上的结合与发展,为我国高等教育管理工作提供科学可靠的决策依据和智力支持。     

Underestimating busyness: Indications of nonresponse bias due to work-family conflict and time pressure

International research shows that both work-family conflict and time pressure are increasing in Western societies. With these increased pressures, precisely those people who are combining work and family obligations may be missing from survey estimates. This study investigates whether the measurement of work-family conflict (WFC) and time pressure is influenced by nonresponse bias. Using the Flemish “Work, Family and Time use in Flanders”-survey and the Basic Question survey for nonrespondents of this survey, we investigate whether nonrespondents score higher on subjective and objective indicators of WFC and time pressure than respondents. Results show that nonrespondents are indeed those sample units who experience significantly more WFC and time pressure, demonstrating that WFC and time pressure related nonresponse biases exist. Implications and suggestions to reduce bias in data collections are discussed.     

网络民意的政策输入与传导机制优化

借鉴伊斯顿的政治系统分析方法构建网络民意、输入途径、政治系统的分析框架。我国网络民意的政策输入需要疏浚制度化的通道,充分发挥党和政府之以及第三部门和网络精英的引导作用,完善政治系统内部的信息传导机制,实现信息表达、回应、反馈的统一。     

西方纵容袒护中国民族分离主义的原因

2010年伊始,美国总统奥巴马罔顾中国政府的严正抗议,执意会见达赖喇嘛,引发了中国舆论和民意的强烈愤怒。2008年和2009年,＂藏独＂和＂疆独＂势力分别策划实施的拉萨3.14事件和乌鲁木齐7.5事件以来,西方国家的政客和媒体不顾中国人民的民族感情,指责中国政府为稳定局势采取的措施是＂镇压少数民族和迫害宗教信仰自由＂,公然为中国民族分裂主义者张目。一个接一个的西方国家上演反华＂秀＂,允许中国分裂分子窜访进行反华活动。西方之所以这样做,有着深刻的政治背景和社会根源。分化中国的战略目的;根深蒂固的政治偏见;衡量中国事务的西方价值标准;偏听偏信分离主义分子的蛊惑宣传;猎奇理念,商业炒作;政治做秀和捞取选票;多元体制,混水摸鱼都是西方纵容和袒护中国民族分裂主义的原因。     

论"政治全球化"语境中的政治发展

全球化是一个复合、多层次的概念,其发展必然涉及到经济、政治、文化等多个领域.随着全球化的发展,在研究领域必须对全球化这一客观进程给我国政治发展产生的影响和冲击加以正确评估和审视.对"政治全球化"语境下政治领域出现的新情况和新问题,对该语境下民族认同、国家主权和民主政治的发展面临的新机遇和新挑战,进行辩证地分析并提出相应的应对策略.     

Social isolation,survey nonresponse,and nonresponse bias: An empirical evaluation using social network data within an organization

Survey researchers have long hypothesized that social isolation negatively affects the probability of survey participation and biases survey estimates. Previous research, however, has relied on proxy measures of isolation, such as being a marginalized group member within a population. We re-examine the relationship between social isolation and survey participation using direct measures of social isolation derived from social network data; specifically, instrumental research and expressive friendship connections among faculty within academic departments. Using a reconceptualization of social isolation, we find that social network isolation is negatively associated with unit response. Among women (a numerical minority group within the organization), we further find that social group isolation (i.e., lacking instrumental network connections to men, the majority group in the organization) is negatively associated with survey participation. Finally, we show that some survey estimates are systematically biased due to nonparticipation from socially isolated people.     

Should we trust survey data? Assessing response simplification and data fabrication

While many factors, such as unit- and item nonresponse, threaten data quality, we focus on data contamination that arises primarily from task simplification processes. We argue that such processes can occur at two levels. First, respondents themselves may engage in various response strategies that minimize their time and effort in completing the survey. Second, interviewers and other employees of the research institute might take various shortcuts to reduce their time and/or to fulfill the requirements of their contracts; in the simplest form this can be done via copy-and-paste procedures.This paper examines the cross-national quality of the reports from principals of schools participating in the 2009 PISA. We introduce two measures of data quality to document that extreme response simplification characterizes the behavior of substantial numbers of school principals in numerous countries. Additionally, we discovered strong evidence of data fabrication in several countries.     

The impact of anti-Vietnam demonstrations upon national public opinion and military indicators

In an attempt to assess the national impact of anti-war protest, 15 major anti-Vietnam demonstrations occurring in the United States from 1965 through 1971 were analyzed for their effects upon Gallup public opinion survey data, American troop strength, and American munitions expenditures. While weak and short-term counterproductive effects appeared for two opinion indicators, an equally likely conclusion is that the demonstrations had little or no lasting impact whatsoever. The possible reasons for this finding, and its social implications, are discussed.     

《民报》阵营分野与辛亥革命前后政治舆论的媒介镜像

辛亥革命前后的政治舆论动员涉及"革命"学理论证。《民报》作为话语系统,其对革命的表述策略在政治宣传中有集中的表现。《民报》被查禁本属媒介事件,引发巨大反响,并迅速演化成政治事件。查禁前后的政治语境及其相联系的舆论氛围尤其值得重视。章太炎主持下的《民报》逐步改变了早期激进与和缓的折中的办报路线,益发地偏左。这涉及革命阵营内部老同盟会与原光复会之间的分野,特别是孙中山与章太炎之间的矛盾。后来者常据此将《民报》停刊完全归结革命思想分歧的产物,实际上,《民报》的停刊有着更为广阔的政治背景,它关联世界范围内远东政治格局的变迁。面对中美、中日、美日关系联动中的利益抉择,为避免将清廷推向美国的怀抱,日本对清廷及革命者采取了均势外交策略。这亦是《民报》第二十四号暂时停刊的重要原委。《民报》被查禁事件发生在辛亥革命前夕,《民报》被查禁的历程及局内、局外人解读,反映出革命元首与政治资源获取、日本外交策略及其对华政治舆论控制等种种联动关系造成复杂纠结的历史变数。     

Measuring multiple discrimination through a survey-based methodology

This paper focuses on the concept of multiple discrimination and its measurement through survey methods. The study was designed as a quasi-experimental comparison of survey mode effects on the quality of discrimination measurement: the traditional ‘face-to-face’ survey, the conventional self-completed mode and CAWI (finally deleted due to its non-comparability). Consistent with our hypothesis, some support was obtained for the social desirability bias and survey mode effects: 1) self-administration of questionnaires favours the declaration of discriminatory attitudes and personal experiences of discrimination; 2) the effect of privacy is greater in direct indicators of discriminatory attitudes; 3) perceptions and experiences of discrimination are more frequently reported by highly educated respondents. Nevertheless, contrary to our expectations, less educated respondents are also affected by survey mode and continue to be underrepresented in self-completed methods. The current research aims to serve as a basis for further research in this area.     

The rescission of behaviors: Inconsistent responses in adolescent sexuality data

In longitudinal survey research, certain questions can be rescinded illogically. For instance, respondents who at Time 1 report having had sexual intercourse may at Time 2 report never having done so. This paper reports measurement techniques and analyses of these types of inconsistencies from an ongoing longitudinal adolescent sexuality project. Inconsistencies in intercourse, masturbation, and other sexual behaviors are reported and compared to rates from other studies and other less sensitive behaviors within the same study. Three conclusions are presented: (1) inconsistencies should be considered a natural part of any longitudinal survey process and should be incorporated into the response model; (2) inconsistency rates in these particular data support the contention that adolescent sexuality data of appropriate quality for analytical purposes can be obtained; and (3) inconsistency rates in fact contain substantive information concerning the processes under consideration.     

论霍布斯政治教育思想

在霍布斯看来,人天生就是激情的动物,但是,这种自然激情还具有一定的反社会性。对于如何将人的自然激情转变为政治激情,霍布斯认为应从两方面着手:一方面,要以惩罚来纠正臣民的消极性激情,以奖赏来鼓励臣民的积极性激情;另一方面,还必须对臣民进行政治教育,化臣民的被动激情为主动激情。可见,他的这些思想对于我们今天如何培养合格的公民以及保持国家的稳定与繁荣依然有着重要的借鉴意义。     

Cross-national variation in the social origins and religious consequences of religious non-affiliation

I argue that the social implications of religious non-affiliation vary across cultural contexts, leading to differences across nations in both who is likely to be unaffiliated and the religious consequences of such non-affiliation. I test these propositions by examining cross-national variation in associations with non-affiliation using multilevel models and cross-sectional survey data from almost 70,000 respondents in 52 nations. The results indicate that: 1) both individual characteristics (gender, age, and marital status) and nation-level attributes (GDP, communism, and regulation of religion) strongly predict religious non-affiliation; 2) differences in non-affiliation by individual-level attributes—women vs. men, old vs. young, and married vs. single—are greatest in nations with low levels of religious regulation and high levels of economic development; and 3) the effect of religious non-affiliation on religiosity varies considerably by the political and religious context, and to a lesser extent by the level of economic development in each nation. These results highlight cultural variation in what it means to be religiously unaffiliated.     

陈寅恪佛教研究的文化范式

在陈寅恪的中古民族文化研究中,佛教问题占有极其重要的地位,涉及到晋唐佛学史、佛教与道教、佛教与儒学、佛教与政治伦理、佛教与语言文艺等方面。陈寅恪佛教研究最大的学术特色是,从佛经比较校勘出发,扩展到中古民族文化渊源探求中去。一方面寻求佛教文化本原,另一方面探求佛教传播中的文化适应,由此提供了一种全新的比较文化渊源研究范式。     

Social mobility in 20 modern societies: The role of economic and political context

It is commonly argued that social mobility rates are influenced by economic and political conditions. Nevertheless, research on this issue has tended to be hindered by two limitations that make it difficult to draw strong conclusions about contextual effects: (1) seldom have country-level and individual-level influences been tested simultaneously, and (2) only rarely have data more recent than the 1970s been employed. We improve on previous research by employing multilevel models fitted to relatively recent survey data collected from 20 modern societies by the International Social Survey Program (ISSP) and national-level characteristics derived from various official sources. Our findings demonstrate systematic cross-national variation in the association between the occupational status of respondents and their fathers. Consistent with the industrialization thesis, this variation is positively associated with per-capita GDP, suggesting that more affluent nations are characterized by more open and fluid stratification structures. Our results also suggest the importance of political regimes and migration for social mobility. In contrast, economic inequality appears to explain very little of the cross-national variation in mobility rates.