人口风险指标的建构与评估方法

文章从“风险（risk）”概念出发,分析了对风险概念两特征“不确定性”和“后果”的不同理解,及对风险指标建构的启示;对“人口风险”概念的意义维度进行了操作性说明,认为人口风险包含“人口系统面临的风险”和“与人口系统相关的风险”两个维度;在此基础上建构了一套人口风险指标体系。设计了相应的风险评估方法。     

汪士铎人口思想剖析——兼与谢忠梁先生商榷

在对汪士铎人口思想的评价中,过去都视其为反动的糟粕而予以否定;最近,谢忠梁先生则认为,“它既包含着反动的糟粕,又包含着十分进步的精华”,并高度评价这些“精华”“都是在中国思想史上前无古人后无来者的重大成就”。究竟应如何评价?我们认为很值得进一步探讨。本文试就汪士铎的人口思想谈些自己的看法,并就正于谢忠梁先生。     

坚持以人为本 促进生殖健康──赴英国、德国考察报告

２００１年７月国家计生委生殖健康与妇女赋权考察团，对英国、德国的生殖健康与妇女赋权情况进行了考察并就中国计划生育和生殖健康问题举行专场报告会。这次考察涉及的主要内容有：第一，全面理解科学规范的优质服务。设在英国的玛利斯特普国际组织ＭＳＩ和国际计划生育联合会ＩＰＰＦ认为，“自始至终都能满足服务对象的需求就是优质服务。”其中，“需求”与“满足”是优质服务的核心内容。一是优质服务不仅是对服务质量的要求，也是维护人权的一个组成部分。要使服务者和服务对象知晓服务对象在接受服务时应享有十大权利，即：１.知情…     

也谈马克思主义“两种生产”理论的几个问题

<正> “两种生产”理论是马克思主义人口理论的重要内容之一,是研究人口问题的重要依据。深入开展对“两种生产”理论的探讨,无论在理论或实践上都有其现实意义。一、“两种生产决定论”不符合马克思和恩格斯的原意不少同志认为:在任何社会状态下,“两种生产”都对社会历史发展平行地起作用,即“‘两种生产’是历史发展中的决定因素”。并且认为,这是马克思和恩格斯一贯坚持的“一元论”唯物史观。主要理由有二:第一,恩格斯在《家庭、私有制和国家的起源》一书的序言中提出了“两种生产决定论”的思想;第二,所谓二元论,是指将物质和精神并列为世界的本源。“两种生产”都是物质性的生产,都是社会存在,所     

试论人类自身生产在历史中的地位和作用

<正> 马克思主义关于两种生产的理论,是马克思主义思想体系的主要组成部分,是历史唯物主义的理论基础。长期以来,我国学术界有一种否定两种生产理论的错误观点,认为两种生产的理论不是马克思主义的一贯思想,至多不过是恩格斯后来对唯物史观的“补充”和“修正”,实质是“二元论”。这种错误观点给我们的理论研究和社会实践造成了莫大损害。粉碎“四人帮”之后,两种生产理论的本来面貌,开始得到恢复。但是,我们认为,还有必要在肯定物质资料生产是“历史中的决定性因素”的同时,进一步明确地肯定人类自身生产也是“历史中决定性因素”,对社会制度起着制约的作用,从而真正理解和掌握马克思主义唯物史观,以适应理论研究和“四化”建设的迫切需要。为此,我们仅就如何认识人类自身生产在历史中的地位和作用问题,谈一点拙见。     

人口问题、人口安全与人口管理

最近,“人口安全”概念的提出开始引起人们的注意1,如何理解和评价这一概念?这是一个很值得研究的论题2。人口发展、人口问题、人口安全和人口管理是几个密切相关的概念。为了理解和界定人口安全概念的内涵与外延,首先有必要搞清人口安全与人口发展、人口问题和人口管理之间的联系与区别,以及这些概念所试图反映的实际意义。1人口发展何谓“人口发展”?刘铮先生认为,“人口发展是指作为社会生活主体的人口,随着社会生产方式的进步,社会经济条件的变化,其数量、质量和结构及其与外部的关系不断由低级向高级运动的过程。3”这是很准确、很恰当…     

诺特斯坦人口思想的一个重大变化——“人口转变论”札记

《人口学辞典(未定稿)》关于“人口转变论”的辞条认为:西方“转变论”者将出生率的下降看作是经济发展的结果,他们反对将避孕和现代节制生育运动看作是生育率下降的重要因素.该辞条说;“人口转变论”的基本观点认为,人口过程不是一个独立自行运动的过程,而是与社会经济条件变化密切相关的过程”,“诺特斯坦把自己用社会经济因素的变化来说明出生率的下降的做法称为标准解释”,他“不同意把现代避孕技术的发明和推广看作是出生率下降的重要因素,他认为出生率下降应归因于经济因素的变化”.我认为:这种提法只反映了诺特斯坦或大多数“转变论”者的早期思想,事实上本世纪四十年代中期以后,包括诺特斯坦在内的大多数“转变论”者都经历了一个重大的理论变革,即从反对用避孕来     

福建人口国际迁移的动因探析

一 东南亚华侨人口与福建人口的国际迁移 学术界对于“华侨”一词尚有不同的理解。一般而言,在海外的中国人可分为三类:华侨、华人与华裔。而这三类之间并无绝对的界限,只是以是否入籍作为标准泛泛区分。实际上,广泛意义上的华人已包括华侨和华裔在内,这便是国外学者所统称的“海外华人”(Overseas、Chinese)或“在国外的中国人”(Chinese-Abroad).笔者认为,对概念吋内涵和外延的规定,应视研究对象而定。本文所说的“华侨人口”按照海内外现有的统计口径与一般理解规定为相当于“海外华人”的范畴,可能有助于对“华侨人口”的历史演变和当前现实的把握。     

人口学界对“以人为本”思想的理解和研究

“以人为本”思想起源甚早,国内外许多领域的专家、学者以及实际工作者对这一思想都有过阐述和研究。从我国人口学的视角出发,结合三十多年以来我国计划生育政策的实践与发展,系统地总结了国内人口学界对“以人为本”思想的理解和研究。     

“孝”的生命力在于代际互助

以往对“孝”文化的研究都更多地强调子代对父代的物质供养,而在传统“孝”文化的很多内容都发生了改变的今天,“孝”仍具有强大生命力的本质原因在于长期存在的良性的代际互助。笔者认为精神赡养对老人而言比物质赡养更为重要。在当前,发扬“孝”文化,鼓励积极的代际互助,有利于很多现实的人口与社会问题的缓解解决。     

The Seduction of the Surface: From Alice to Crash

Drawing on a qualitative analysis of Swedish newspaper debates in 1979 and 1995, this article examines how Swedish newspapers refer to biological sex difference as central to drinking practices. The study shows that women are a special category of concern in debate about gender and drinking in both 1979 and 1995. Further, it shows that Swedish newspapers draw upon biology in different ways in the two years. In 1979, debate about drinking during pregnancy and Fetal Alcohol Syndrome (FAS) is central and newspapers link biomedical research on FAS to the moral idea that mothers do anything to avoid harm to children. In 1995, debate about girls' drinking habits is central and newspapers link sex hormones and neurotransmitters to the moral idea that girls shouldn't “drink like men.” These differences are discussed in the context of Swedish media interest in evolutionary psychology and biomedical solutions to alcohol problems during the 1990s.     

Impact factors of purse seine net and dip net fisheries on a chub mackerel population

There are two major kinds of fisheries for the chub mackerel in Japan. The purse seine net fishery exploits young and adult fish during the foraging season, while the dip net fishery exploits fish before and during the spawning season. To compare the damage to the chub mackerel stock caused by purse seine net and dip net fisheries, we introduced impact factors of the two kinds of fisheries on the two kinds of fisheries and estimated number of eggs spawned in 1982. We defined the impact factor as the ratio of the average reproductive value of individuals caught by each fishery to the reproductive value at maturity. The number of individuals caught by the purse seine net fishery was 66 times larger than the number caught by the dip net fishery, while the impact factor of the former was 84% of that of the latter. Thus, the total damage caused by the purse seine net fishery was much higher than the damage caused by the dip net fishery. We can evaluate the damage caused by mortality factors on endangered species using this method.     

A reconceptualization of the role of biology in contributing to race/ethnic disparities in health outcomes

An increasing amount of attention is being given to the inappropriate use of contributionsfrom the biological sciences in research on race/ethnic disparities in health. This discussionwill take a first step towards productive interdisciplinary collaboration with the biologicalsciences by recognizing the methodological and ethical problems underlying current researchon race/ethnic disparities. An alternative model is then presented that specifies the role ofbiology in contributing to race/ethnic disparities in health and mortality without reinforcinga biological conceptualization of race.     

The effects of wild cruciferous host plants on morphology, reproductive performance and flight activity in the diamondback moth,Plutella xylostella (Lepidoptera: Yponomeutidae)

The wild crucifers,Rorippa indica andLepidium virginicum, are known to serve as host plants for the diamondback moth (DBM),Plutella xylostella, but they are less suitable than the preferred cultivated cruciferous plant, cabbage, in terms of adult body size and fecundity. The life history traits and flight activity of DBM adults grown on various host plants were investigated. The adults thus reared on each host plant were divided into three size groups (small, medium and large). In general, female adults grown on the wild crucifers were less fecund and lived longer than those reared on cabbage. Flight activity was higher in adults grown on wild crucifers than in those reared on cabbage. Male adults flew longer than females. Fecundity, longevity, flight activity and morphometrical characters of adults were positively correlated with pupal weight in individuals reared on the same host plant. A negative relationship was found between fecundity and flight activity in females of the same size group, but a positive one was observed in females reared on the same host plant.     

Extinction of populations due to inbreeding depression with demographic disturbances

The process of population extinction due to inbreeding depression with constant demographic disturbances every generation is analysed using a population genetic and demographic model. The demographic disturbances introduced into the model represent loss of population size that is induced by any kind of human activities, e.g. through hunting and destruction of habitats. The genetic heterozygosity among recessive deleterious genes and the population size are assumed to be in equilibrium before the demographic disturbances start. The effects of deleterious mutations are represented by decreases in the growth rate and carrying capacity of a population. Numerical simulations indicate rapid extinction due to synergistic interaction between inbreeding depression and declining population size for realistic ranges of per-locus mutation rate, equilibrium population size, intrinsic rate of population growth, and strength of demographic disturbances. Large populations at equilibrium are more liable to extinction when disturbed due to inbreeding depression than small populations. This is a consequence of the fact that large populations maintain more recessive deleterious mutations than small populations. The rapid extinction predicted in the present study indicates the importance of the demographic history of a population in relation to extinction due to inbreeding depression.     

The Birth of Modern Criminology and Gendered Constructions of Homosexual Criminal Identity

There is a dearth of engagement with LGBTQ populations, and sexual orientation and gender identity more broadly, in the field of criminology. This article analyzes the treatment of sexual orientation and gender identity at the birth of the discipline around the 1870s. Through an analysis of Cesare Lombroso’s writings, the article argues that a multifaceted stigma of deviance attached to homosexuality and gender nonconformity in early criminological theory. The article explains this multifaceted stigma in terms of broader political, social, cultural, and legal developments before and during the late nineteenth century that shaped modern Western conceptions of sexual orientation and gender identity.     

Retrospective information on health status and its application for population health measures

Healthy life expectancies are almost always calculated by using health data from cross-sectional surveys. This type of calculation is done partly because data from longitudinal surveys are not always available, and when they are available, they are collected at intervals that are longer than one year. In such cases, collecting health information retrospectively for the years skipped by the survey is useful. The main purpose of this paper is to show how retrospective health information can be used to estimate life expectancies in different health states. Healthy life expectancies are estimated with and without using data on retrospective health information, and the corresponding estimates are compared. The two sets of estimates are similar. We conclude that retrospectively assessed health information based on a one-year recall period can be used to estimate years of life in various health states and that estimates based on such information will closely approximate estimates based on concurrent health information.     

Self-selection in migration and returns to unobservables

We build a model of migration that considers both observable and unobservable individual characteristics and their returns across locations. We focus on the interprovincial migration patterns of Canadian physicians, in part, because physicians are paid on a fee-for-service basis. Because fees are exogenous, we can estimate a mixed conditional-logit model to determine the effects of individual- and destination-specific characteristics (particularly earnings differentials) on physician location decisions. We find, among other things, that individuals with greater earnings potential based on unobservables are more likely to migrate to provinces where the returns to such unobservables are greater.      

Comparison of information on death certificates and matching 1960 census records: age,marital status,race, nativity and country of origin

A sample of death certificates matched with 1960 Census records permitted comparison of response data for items asked on both records. Estimates of bias in death rates which are based on information from the two records are derived from the comparison data. Most of the comparisons yielded small discrepancies of inconsequential effect on the mortality rates. Some large inconsistencies, however, of potentially serious impact on the death rates were observed. The comparisons are examined and the implications of the results for the relevant mortality rates are discussed. In addition, age-specific death rates "corrected" for the disparities found in the age information on the two records are presented.     

The Impact of Parental Death on Child Well-being: Evidence From the Indian Ocean Tsunami

Identifying the impact of parental death on the well-being of children is complicated because parental death is likely to be correlated with other, unobserved factors that affect child well-being. Population-representative longitudinal data collected in Aceh, Indonesia, before and after the December 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami are used to identify the impact of parental deaths on the well-being of children aged 9–17 at the time of the tsunami. Exploiting the unanticipated nature of parental death resulting from the tsunami in combination with measuring well-being of the same children before and after the tsunami, models that include child fixed effects are estimated to isolate the causal effect of parental death. Comparisons are drawn between children who lost one or both parents and children whose parents survived. Shorter-term impacts on school attendance and time allocation one year after the tsunami are examined, as well as longer-term impacts on education trajectories and marriage. Shorter- and longer-term impacts are not the same. Five years after the tsunami, there are substantial deleterious impacts of the tsunami on older boys and girls, whereas the effects on younger children are more muted.