以结构性改革再造中国经济增长新动力

重振全球经济增长活力的关键在于推进创新和结构性改革,中国经济是引领世界经济持续增长的关键力量.在创新驱动战略和供给侧结构性改革的推动下,中国经济逐渐呈现出新动能加快孕育的良好趋势.下阶段应着力激发供给体系的内生活力和竞争力,提高全要素生产率,尤其要把创新放在关键位置,适应互联网浪潮推进产业技术创新,从开放视角出发整合全球创新资源,进一步营造激励创新的生态环境.     

供给侧结构性改革与中国经济增长趋势预测

随着供给侧结构性改革的推进,中国资源要素供给效率和供给质量将明显上升,经济结构将进一步优化,制度创新将进一步释放经济增长活力,中国经济增长潜力将转化为实际经济增长.基于中国经济增长潜力的释放,对中国未来经济增长趋势进行预测,从现在到2050年,中国长周期经济增长将逐步趋缓,并向世界平均经济增速收敛,到2050年可能回归至3％～4％的增速水平.     

2014经济增速将好于2013

2014年全球经济复苏的态势仍将持续,而国内改革将全面推进.预计2014年我国经济增速仍能保持在7.5％-8％的合理区间.但中国经济运行仍可能面临外部环境变化、结构性失衡、产能过剩以及潜在增速放缓等四个方面的不确定性. 十八届三中全会提出的市场化改革将从资源配置、技术进步、内外联动及人力资本积累四个方面提升全要素生产率,从而使未来十年左右中国潜在增长率仍能维持在7.6％左右的水平,同时实现增长质量的持续提升.     

供给侧结构性改革与中国经济增长潜力分析

随着经济增长理论的发展和完善,作为经济增长动力源的劳动、资本、技术以及相关产业结构、制度环境等对经济增长推动作用不断被论证.资源要素供给质量提升、效率改善、结构优化以及制度创新将对经济增长潜力产生较大影响.供给侧结构性改革对经济增长的推动作用不仅反映在提高资源要素的有效供给,而且反映在技术进步、制度创新以及结构优化等方面.因而,供给侧结构性改革的实施将有效提升经济增长潜力.     

失衡中国窥探：内外联动的平衡发展之路选择

人口数量和土地利用（农业发展、工业化和城市化）是解读中国经济高增长的关键变量,对应的户籍设计和土地公有制（国家和集体所有）构成内外经济失衡主要制度成因．。改革与开放是内外经济齐步发展的动力,而资源、要素配置和制度建设在经济增长发挥效力的过程中又充当“催化剂”的作用,“两个大局”战略实施及深度推进是发展失衡加剧的“起因”。经济高增长与发展失衡之间存在明显的联动关系,从这个角度能够找到经济成因。扭转内外经济发展失衡格局,走平衡道路是中国未来必须直面的挑战。     

紧密合作,努力达成有利于全球协调的新共识——2016“更强劲的全球经济增长:政策、驱动因素和机构”国际研讨会纪要

在全球经济“平庸化”的背景下,为防止中国经济下滑,一要遏制投资、消费、出口快速下滑,特别要稳定投资的增长;二要持续推进全面深化改革,提升全要素的生产率,提升积极财政政策的效能;三要加快推进产业的转型升级,培育推进战略性新兴产业的发展,加强第二产业和第三产业的深度融合;四要合理界定政府和市场的边界.     

市场化改革是否促进了广州市污水处理行业效率的提升?

2003年,广州市实施了污水处理行业的市场化改革。市场化改革实践已经13年了,它是否促进了广州市污水处理行业效率的提升?本文采用数据包络分析法对2006-2014年广州和41个城市的污水处理行业全要素生产率变化进行测算,对2014年广州和41个城市的污水处理行业效率进行测算。本文的研究结果发现:市场化改革确实促进了广州市污水处理行业全要素生产率的提高;广州市污水处理行业的全要素生产率变化主要来源于效率变化和技术变化;目前,广州市污水处理行业的行业效率并不高,在42个城市中排名18位。根据研究结论,本文提出以下政策建议:提高管网完善度和厂网适配性,提高行业的竞争程度,增强地方政府对行业的规制能力,增加对地方政府规制能力的再监督。     

当前中国经济增速的合理区间与发展治理

对经济发展与国家治理必须同时抓短期对策和长期治理,造成当前中国经济增速下滑的基本原因除了周期性和结构性因素外,目标管理缺失、弱化所导致的不作为,也是不可忽视的重要因素;GDP中心主义的政绩考核方式有其问题,但不能完全不要GDP目标,而应形成更多维的考核;从劳动力、资本和全要素生产率等基本面看,中国经济潜在增长率,5～8年内有望继续保持在7％以上;面对发展方式转变和制度体制转型的难题,需要兼顾发展的逻辑与治理的逻辑.     

中国城市化进程推动经济增长的再考察——基于2000-2012年31个省份的面板数据

2013年我国的城市化率已经达到53.73%,还有一定的发展空间,城市化势必成为支撑我国未来几十年经济增长的一根支柱。在文献研究和综述的基础上,采用2000-2012年全国31个省份的面板数据进行了计量分析。分析结果发现:城市化主要还是通过物质资本投资驱动经济增长,城市化通过人力资本积累、技术创新来推动经济增长的作用已经显现,但此作用机制还未完全打开,人力资本通过作用于技术创新来推动经济增长的作用较强。     

国家科技创新治理体系与上海对策总体研究

在加快建设全球科技创新中心的大背景之下,上海需从世界竞争大格局、适应经济发展新常态、区域创新辐射等维度统筹设计和思考定位,重点从正确处理政府与市场以及社会的关系、有效促进各类创新主体协同互动、改进科技创新治理机制、完善激励大众创业万众创新的制度环境等方面,推进其科技创新治理体系现代化,促进支撑科技创新发展的制度基础更加成熟定型,促进创新要素的高效聚集和有效流动,激发创新动力和活力,提高科技创新的质量和效率.     

Economic Rights,Economic Myths,and Economic Realities

Summary

Although the myth is that gay and lesbian people, especially gay men, are affluent and are faring well in the workplace, research shows that they in fact experience wage discrimination and lack many other fundamental rights related to employment. This article reviews the literature addressing gay, lesbian, bisexual, and transgend-ered people as workers, showing the ways in which their economic rights are still compromised in the United States today. The social work profession must understand these realities and seek ways to address them.     

Economic Freedom and Economic Growth in South East Europe

Economic freedom, understood as absence of barriers for business entry, business operations and business exit, is a source of economic development. Its impact is indirect: through institutions framework creation and environment that encourages economic development. Primarily, economic freedoms are a reflection of institutional arrangement, which makes business operations and the realization of business ideas easier for entrepreneurs and managers, who are two extremely important groups for economic development. The aim of the paper is to present empirical analysis of interrelation between economic freedom and economic development, expressed through several indicators, such as gross domestic product, income per capita, foreign direct investment per capita.     

Economic Uncertainty and Fertility

Sociologists and demographers have long been interested in the role of economic uncertainty in family behavior. Despite the prevailing “bourgeois conviction” that economic uncertainty discourages people from having children, the empirical evidence on this issue is mixed. In this paper, I summarize the recent empirical evidence, and discuss the potential limitations of previous investigations. Among the possible shortcomings of these studies is that many relied exclusively on unemployment as an operational definition of labor market uncertainty. Subjective indicators of economic uncertainty, which measure the individual’s perception of his or her economic situation more directly, often were not available to researchers. Moreover, few of these studies explored group-specific differences in behavior. In this paper, we seek to overcome some of the limitations of these earlier analyses. Based on data from the German Socio-Economic Panel (GSOEP), we study the role of perceived economic uncertainty in transitions to first and higher order births for the period 1990–2013. In addition, we examine how different population subgroups (stratified by education, parity, and age) respond to economic uncertainty.     

Economic Crisis and Migration

This article develops a perspective on African migrant integration, reflecting on the ‘visualization’ of migrant experience. It formulates some considerations on how integration of migrants can be captured, drawing on empirical material from street photography in modern-day Greece. The main research question concerns the role of visual images as sites for the construction and depiction of social difference. In that sense, their meaning goes beyond their content and they act as visual representations of discourses. The paper addresses this issue through a focus on local aspects of integration of sub-Saharan African migrants in the city centre of Athens. Specifically it looks at three themes related to discourses on migrant integration in today's economic crisis: (1) the physical and social environment of marginalization, (2) the migrant body and (3) the fear of the migrant. On the basis of the findings a synthesis is attempted of several parallel existing representations in discourses about African migration. The synthesis betrays the ongoing struggle between, on the one hand, the dominant structures that the state creates to deal with their presence and, on the other, the migrant strategies for adaptation and inclusion, which in turn sustain the mechanisms and form integration takes in this context.     

Economic development and urbanisation

Trends in urbanization in developing countries are analyzed, with a focus on the causes of rapid urbanization and particularly on the role of the division of labor. The impact of urbanization on the process of economic development is described. The role of government and of urban planning policies is also considered.     

Economic Resources and Woman Abuse

Abstract

Secondary data analyses of the 1999 National Crime Victimization Survey (NCVS) were conducted to examine relationships between economic resources and woman abuse among subsamples of African American, Hispanic and White women. Logistic analyses indicated that associations vary, not only along racial and ethnic lines, but also by type of woman abuse. None of the economic resources were associated with woman abuse for the Hispanic women. Employment status and education attainment were the strongest predictors of abuse among the African American and White women. Adding marital status and age into the models had significant impact on the previous associations.     

气候变化与经济发展方式转变

气候变化与经济发展方式的关系日益受到重视。本文首先对气候变化的现象及其影响进行了分析，然后阐述了中国当前粗放型经济增长方式对资源环境的影响。本文认为，解决气候变化和粗放经济增长方式的重要途径是借鉴发达国家的经验，大力发展我国的低碳经济以应对气候变化，并促使经济增长方式的转变。     

Economic theory and international migration

The modern literature on the economics of immigration focuses on 3 related issues: 1) what determines the size and skill composition of immigrants flows to any particular host country; 2) how do the immigrants adapt to the host country's economy; and 3) what is the impact of immigrants on the host country's economy? This article reviews the theoretical framework and empirical evidence provided by the economics literature on these questions. It demonstrates that the economic approach, using the assumption that migration behavior is guided by the search for better economic opportunities and that the exchanges among the various players are regulated by an immigration market, leads to substantial insights in to these issues.