后“9·11”时代美国边界安全空间的外扩性趋势分析——以集装箱安全计划(CSI)为例

"9·11"后,美国边界安全政策发生了深刻变化,体现出了很多新的特点与发展趋势,边界安全空间的外扩性就是其中之一。本文拟以集装箱安全计划(CSI)为例对此进行分析,指出"9·11"后美国政府通过国际间政府合作等方式实现了美国边界安全空间的外扩,使美国的边界成为保卫边界安全的最后一道而不是第一道防线,扩大了美国边界安全保卫的战略纵深。这是"9·11"后美国政府边界安全政策的一个新特点,也是全球化时代主权国家边界安全保卫中值得探索的一种积极方式。     

Empirical evidence of risk penalties for NTI Drugs

Journal of Risk and Uncertainty - Drug innovations can outpace regulatory drug approval processes designed to control risk, creating heterogeneous risks among approved drugs. This paper estimates a...     

Liability risk in the pharmaceutical industry: Tort law in the US and UK

This paper examines the extent to which product liability risk contributes to the high costs of pharmaceuticals in the United States relative to prices in the United Kingdom. Research on pharmaceutical prices rarely accounts for the impact of liability risk, and none that we are aware of compares the United States and United Kingdom. Drawing on a dataset of 77 brand name drugs sold in both the U.S. and the U.K., we analyze relative manufacturers’ factory prices in each nation. We utilize several proxies for liability risk including drug litigation history, the percentage of plaintiff wins, and controlled substance classification. Importantly, under U.S. law there are no caps on the amount that can be awarded to a plaintiff claiming economic losses in the U.S. However, payouts in the U.K. are limited. Accounting for market differences and regulatory environments, we find liability risk can account for a portion of the price differential that exists between the U.S. and U.K., warranting further investigation.     

中美证券市场在险价值比较分析

在险价值作为金融行业计量市场风险的一种工具,已经被广泛接受。从期望在险价值的概念,计算出中美证券市场的期望在险价值并从实证研究中得出以下三个结论:从投资风险角度来看,中国证券市场的投资风险高于美国证券市场,同时证实上海证券市场的投资风险略高于深圳证券市场;就美国证券市场而言,投资风险最近十年低于整个100年的风险;上证指数和深成指数自设定以来季度在险价值服从分布,而美国整个100年的道琼斯工业指数的季度不服从分布,但近十年的季度服从分布。     

Brain–Computer Interface Devices: Risks and Canadian Regulations

Implantable Brain–Computer Interface (BCI) devices are currently in clinical trials in the U.S., and their introduction into the Canada could follow in the next few years. This article provides an overview of the research, developments, design issues, and risks in BCIs and an analysis of the adequacy of the regulatory framework in place for the approval of medical devices in Canada, emphasizing device investigational testing. The article concludes that until better safeguards are in place, to best protect potential research subjects, BCIs should not be approved for investigational testing in Canada.     

Brain-Computer Interface devices: risks and Canadian regulations

Implantable Brain-Computer Interface (BCI) devices are currently in clinical trials in the U.S., and their introduction into the Canada could follow in the next few years. This article provides an overview of the research, developments, design issues, and risks in BCIs and an analysis of the adequacy of the regulatory framework in place for the approval of medical devices in Canada, emphasizing device investigational testing. The article concludes that until better safeguards are in place, to best protect potential research subjects, BCIs should not be approved for investigational testing in Canada.     

The Drug‐Laden Balloon: U.S. Military Assistance and Coca Production in the Central Andes*

Objective. This article explores the empirical effects of U.S. drug policy on coca cultivation in the Central Andes. We assess the impact of U.S. military assistance on the production of coca in the Central Andes, while controlling for other explanatory variables that influence coca cultivation. Method. Using data from 1980–2001 for Colombia, Bolivia, and Peru, we perform a pooled cross‐sectional time‐series analysis. Results. The effects of U.S. military assistance on coca cultivation are not uniform across the Central Andes. Coca production decreased in Bolivia and Peru and increased in Colombia. Total coca production in the Central Andes, however, remained unchanged. Conclusion. This study is consistent with existing literature that points out the obstacles governments face as they attempt to suppress illicit goods. Specifically, our empirical findings support the idea of the “balloon effect,” whereby government efforts to “squeeze” illicit trade in one area result in the expansion of that trade elsewhere.     

Costs and distortion of U.S. regulation policy in intercoastal lumber shipping

This article quantitatively analyzes the various impacts of current U.S. coastal restrictions on the Northwest lumber industry. The history of U.S. maritime regulation is briefly reviewed and a simulation model is developed to measure its affect on lumber shipments and transport costs. The results of the model indicate that aggregate cost redutions obtained through deregulation are likely to be small. The pattern of intercoastal shipments could change a great deal, however, with U.S. producers picking up a large share of the Northeast market.     

Discounting statistical lives

Benefit-cost analysis of government projects that reduce health risks over an extended period of time requires an estimate of the value of a future life. This in turn requires a discount rate. We suggest and carry out a method to estimate the discount rate using observations on discrete choices between projects with different time horizons. This method is implemented in a survey context. For our primary example, the estimated median discount rate is close to the market rate. A substantial proportion of the sample is estimated to have quite low discount rates. We provide some evidence that discount rates may differ for different types of risks.This research was supported in part by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency under Cooperative Agreement in Environmental Economics Research CR-813557-01-0. The opinions expressed do not necessarily reflect the views of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. We would like to thank Paul Portney for bringing the importance of discounting statistical lives to our attention, and John Conlisk, Maureen Cropper, Mark Machina, Robert Mitchell, Peter Navarro, and Walter Oi for helpful comments.     

Anchoring biases in international estimates of the value of a statistical life

U.S. labor market estimates of the value of a statistical life (VSL) were the first revealed preference estimates of the VSL in the literature and continue to constitute the majority of such market estimates. The VSL estimates in U.S. studies consequently may have established a reference point for the estimates that researchers analyzing data from other countries are willing to report and that journals are willing to publish. This article presents the first comparison of the publication selection biases in U.S. and international estimates using a sample of 68 VSL studies with over 1000 VSL estimates throughout the world. Publication selection biases vary across the VSL distribution and are greater for the larger VSL estimates. The estimates of publication selection biases distinguish between U.S. and international studies as well as between government and non-government data sources. Empirical estimates that correct for the impact of these biases reduce the VSL estimates, particularly for studies based on international data. This pattern of publication bias effects is consistent with international studies relying on U.S. estimates as an anchor for the levels of reasonable estimates. U.S. estimates based on the Census of Fatal Occupational Injuries constitute the only major set of VSL studies for which there is no evidence of statistically significant publication selection effects. Adjusting a baseline bias-adjusted U.S. VSL estimate of $9.6 million using estimates of the income elasticity of the VSL may be a sounder approach for generating international estimates of the VSL than relying on direct estimates from international studies.     

Labor Market Outcomes for Legal Mexican Immigrants Under the New Regime of Immigration Enforcement

OBJECTIVES: This paper documents the effects of increasingly restrictive immigration and border policies on Mexican migrant workers in the United States. METHODS: Drawing on data from the Mexican Migration Project we create a data file that links age, education, English language ability, and cumulative U.S. experience in three legal categories (documented, undocumented, guest worker) to the occupational status and wage attained by migrant household heads on their most recent U.S. trip. RESULTS: We find that the wage and occupational returns to various forms of human capital generally declined after harsher policies were imposed and enforcement dramatically increased after 1996, especially for U.S. experience and English language ability. CONCLUSION: These results indicate that the labor market status of legal immigrants has deteriorated significantly in recent years as larger shares of the migrant workforce came to lack labor rights, either because they were undocumented or because they held temporary visas that did not allow mobility or bargaining over wages and working conditions.     

The impact of opening markets on Mexican male/female wage and occupational differentials

This article addresses the effect of a more open market under NAFTA on the economic status of Mexican women. It is assumed that increases in export processing and tourism, industries that have a high demand for female labor, will result from the agreement. The approach of this study is to use regression and correlation analysis to compare wage and occupational differences in two Mexican cities: Tijuana, on the U.S.-Mexican border, and Torreon, in the interior. A major findings is that the overall wage gap is statistically significantly lower where there is increased export processing activity, but there appears to be very little change in occupational segregation. Three additional impacts are: first, that labor force participation rates increase for both men and women, but proportionally more for women. Second, the higher labor demand appears to weaken the relationship between the job qualifications of education and experience and wages. Third, wages by gender are more equal, but for the labor force as a whole there is a greater level of wage dispersion.     

Free trade,food-processing,and migration: An analysis of Mexican immigration in the U.S. Great Plains Region

This paper empirically identifies the factors driving Mexican immigration into the U.S. Great Plains region, focusing especially on the role of work in the Mexican and U.S. food-processing sectors, which in the context of NAFTA-induced foreign direct investments, opens up paths for migration along occupational lines into the U.S. from Mexico. Using a unique dataset on Mexican migration, the study addresses three related questions in a series of multivariate logistic regression analyses. First, is employment in the U.S. food-processing sector associated with Mexican migration into the Great Plains region? Second, does employment in the Mexican food-processing sector predict employment in the Great Plains food-processing sector? Finally, is the political–economic context linking Mexico and the U.S. related to the formation of occupational channels linking the food-processing sectors in Mexico and the U.S.? The findings demonstrate that the U.S. food-processing sector is a strong predictor of Mexican migration to the Great Plains region; Mexican migration is strongly channeled along occupational lines from Mexico to the U.S.; and the implementation of NAFTA, a period of intensive political–economic integration, strengthens the occupational channel between the food-processing sectors.     

Poverty drug use in Hungary

There is little substantive information on the present trends on drug use in the countries of central and eastern Europe, including Hungary. There has been a substantial change in recent years in the illegal and legal use of psychoactive substances: the western type of drug trade and drug use has begun, with the influx of the classical drugs (heroin, cocaine, amphetamines, LSD and hashish). In addition, a study based on data obtained from all district physicians shows that the rate of regular use of psychoactive substances is very high in the parts of Hungary with poor infrastructure. This "poverty" drug use, together with the poppy cult and the traditions of grape cultivation and wine drinking could be a serious obstacle to the wider spread of western type drug use in Hungary.     

Under the Influence: The Interplay among Industry,Publishing, and Drug Regulation

The relationships among academe, publishing, and industry can facilitate commercial bias in how drug efficacy and safety data are obtained, interpreted, and presented to regulatory bodies and prescribers. Through a critique of published and unpublished trials submitted to the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) and the European Medicines Agency (EMA) for approval of a new antidepressant, vortioxetine, we present a case study of the “ghost management” of the information delivery process. We argue that currently accepted practices undermine regulatory safeguards aimed at protecting the public from unsafe or ineffective medicines. The economies of influence that may intentionally and unintentionally produce evidence-biased—rather than evidence-based—medicine are identified. This is not a simple story of author financial conflicts of interest, but rather a complex tale of ghost management of the entire process of bringing a drug to market. This case study shows how weak regulatory policies allow for design choices and reporting strategies that can make marginal products look novel, more effective, and safer than they are, and how the selective and imbalanced reporting of clinical trial data in medical journals results in the marketing of expensive “me-too” drugs with questionable risk/benefit profiles. We offer solutions for neutralizing these economies of influence.     

Easy target and moral panic: the Law on Drug Addiction No. 162 of 1990

In industrialized societies the war against drugs tends to develop into a war that concretely strengthens control by the state over potentially dangerous classes. This is also true for Italy. In 1988, Bettino Craxi, now under investigation for a series of serious crimes, but at the time the powerful leader of the Socialist Party, launched a crusade against drugs. After about 18 months of moral panic campaigns, Law No. 162 was passed. Its ideological keystone is the section forbidding the personal use of narcotic or psychotropic drugs. Its officially declared objectives are to reduce the drug trade, to increase access by drug addicts to the services and, of course, to reduce the number of deaths by overdose. The available evidence, however, does not prove that these objectives have been reached. Rather, the true motivations must be sought elsewhere: in the attempt by the political class to regain legitimacy and thus consensus.     

An empirical assessment of the wage premium for American veterans of World War II

This paper examines U.S. census data from 1960 to 1980 to assess the relative wages of WWII veteran and non-veteran men. Our analysis reveals that a significant portion wage gap between veterans and non-veterans (the “veteran wage premium”) is due primarily to differences in education, work experience and other socioeconomic characteristics. Our findings are consistent with the notion that greater human capital, due perhaps to the selection process for military service, or to the post-war benefits provided by the GI Bill, helped contribute to the remarkable post-war labor market success of American veterans. To a lesser extent, veterans may also have benefited from preferential labor market treatment, or from intangible aspects of military experience that enhanced their returns to earnings-related characteristics.     

Models for estimating discount rates for long-term health risks using labor market data

This article utilizes evidence from job choices involving fatality risks to estimate individual discount rates for adverse health outcomes. The study compares the results from five distinct models for estimating discount rates from labor market data. The estimated discount rates range from 1% to 14% with confidence intervals that usually include financial market rates for the same period. This result, and consistent findings of significant compensating differentials for fatality risk, provide strong support for life-cycle models of individual rationality in the choice of job risks. Discounted value-of-life estimates are also developed and compared to the crosssection estimates that are more prevalent in the literature.     

美国霸权的历史成因及其现实问题

美国霸权的获得是一个历史演进过程,它既根源于美国超强的国家实力和持续的创新能力,也离不开在国际战略方面对世界霸权的追求和谋划,这其中包括对实力的崇尚、对世界大战的利用、倡导"国际规范"、保持对地缘政治的关注、掌控联盟体系及对潜在竞争者的遏制和打击等。当前,随着美国国内力量基础生变、国际战略调整失误和外部环境的演变,美国霸权正在步入结构性式微阶段,有可能成为影响世界和平与发展的一个风险因素,其何去何从引人关注。     

Third Sector In Transition – A Question of Sustainability for Community Service Organizations and the Sector?

Third sector organizations are transitioning towards entrepreneurial and managerial models as a result of quasi‐market strategies. This paper reports on the research findings of a survey of nonprofit disability organizations in Queensland and Victoria impacted upon by quasi‐market reform. Enterprising organizations were found to have made substantial change to organizational structures and systems, whilst more traditional organizations made few changes. All organizations demonstrated commitment to a social justice ethos. However across the organizational archetypes there were reports of an organizational ‘fragility’. It is argued that the problems of sustainability of community service organizations that existed prior to quasi‐market reforms remain. This implies community service organizations will experience ongoing difficulties in the post‐market era without further rationalization and change. A conceptual framework for sustainability of the community service sector is presented at the policy and organizational level.