深圳市城市内部人口与社会空间结构研究

“物以类聚,人以群分”,城市内部的人们由于社会、经济、文化等原因而在空间上表现为一定结构。国内外对于深圳市这类新兴移民城市的人口和社会空间结构研究还不多见,通过采用因子分析和空间分析结合的计算机统计分析技术,使用第四次人口普查和第五次人口普查数据,从人口空间结构和社会空间结构两大方面对深圳市的人口展开研究。具体来说,一是深圳市人口数量的分布和变化研究,主要通过人口总量、人口密度和多个人口密度分布模型来测算和分析;二是对于社会空间结构的分析,主要对人口普查数据的人口社会、经济、文化属性进行因子分析,提取出若干个主因子,然后根据各个街道这些因子的得分情况进行聚类分析,得到深圳市社会空间结构的模型。     

Womens education and diffusion of the fertility transition: The case of Egypt 1960–1996 in 4905 administrative subdivisions

Egypt comprises thousands of small geographic units. Total fertility rates are reconstructed for the 4905qism, qarya, medina, markaz andshiyakhat covering non-desert Egypt at the 1960, 1976, 1986 and 1996 censuses. This fine spatial scale reveals that heterogeneity across subdivisions increased during the fertility transition, illustrating the rapidity of change. Spatial patterns appear in the fertility upsurge of 1974–85, which is accompanied by a large but temporary reduction in heterogeneity. Fertility varies greatly between subdivisions and geographic differentials underlie the expected and observed association between fertility, literacy, family transfers and industrialization. Cairo led the decline of fertility, but that decline is counterbalanced by rapid economic growth and persistently high levels of illiteracy. A similar pattern of fertility change is observed for the chief city of the Muhafaza and its surrounding area. Egypt presents an archetype of demographic transition as improved economic and educational status diffuses across the country, moderated by its specific geography.     

Knox meets Cox: Adapting epidemiological space-time statistics to demographic studies

Many important questions and theories in demography focus on changes over time, and on how those changes differ over geographic and social space. Space-time analysis has always been important in studying fertility transitions, for example. However, demographers have seldom used formal statistical methods to describe and analyze time series of maps. One formal method, used widely in epidemiology, criminology, and public health, is Knox’s space-time interaction test. In this article, we discuss the potential of the Knox test in demographic research and note some possible pitfalls. We demonstrate how to use familiar proportional hazards models to adapt the Knox test for demographic applications. These adaptations allow for nonrepeatable events and for the incorporation of structural variables that change in space and time. We apply the modified test to data on the onset of fertility decline in Brazil over 1960–2000 and show how the modified method can produce maps indicating where and when diffusion effects seem strongest, net of covariate effects.     

Fertility and economic and social development in Turkey: a cross-sectional and time series study

Abstract The paper explores the impact of modernization on the fertility levels in Turkey, which started deliberate efforts at economic, social, and political transformation in the early 1920s. It is a disaggregative study using 'province' as the unit of observation. A relatively consistent series of data on population and various economic and social variables was available with quinquennial censuses starting with the 1940 Census. The technique of reverse projection is used to estimate provincial crude birth rates. Since 1955 there has been a consistent decline in the fertility level. A chain-relationship model is estimated using both cross-sectional and panel data. A major finding of the study is that in Turkey, continuing modernization and the concomitant spread of female education will result in a continuing decline in the fertility rate. This negative influence, stable and substantial over time, is largely due to factors other than the usual association between education and opportunity cost of female employment, such as changing attitudes and tastes. Also with the spread of economic and social development influencing the society's norm for average age at marriage and the proportion of women married, the marital rate, though not so significant as education, imparts a direct depressing effect on the aggregate period fertility rate at any given time.     

An analysis of major proximate determinants of our fertility]

The sample survey of fertility, in Shanghai city and Shanxi and Hebei provinces of China in 1985, provided plentiful data about fertility, marriage, contraceptive usage and breastfeeding in terms of The World Fertility Survey Model. The data, along with Bongaarts' model, was utilized to analyze the relation between several proximate determinants and fertility changes. When comparing these three geographic areas, the largest difference was breastfeeding and the smallest one was non- contraceptive usage. It was very different from the results of The World Fertility Survey in developing countries in 1977. The difference of marriage indexes among three areas was close to that of breastfeeding; but for the effects on induction of fertility, marriage index surpassed breastfeeding. There were two models showing effective efficacy on fertility decline. One was the Shanghai model, in which much more effect came from marriage delay, accounting for 71%; another was the Hebei model, induction of fertility was caused by contraceptive usage, about 53%. Both indicated that the major factor affecting fertility decline was the family planning program. Otherwise, it seemed to indicate that different factors such as social, economic development indirectly decreased fertility through family planning programs.     

An attempt at evaluation of the economic and social factors [influencing] the Polish population's fertility formation

This analysis of economic determinants of fertility in Poland shows that couples' fertility decisions are negatively influenced by factors affecting family income. Social and demographic factors were found to be unrelated to fertility. 17 socioeconomic measures were grouped as those expressing the level of economic development and determining family income size, those reflecting the level of socioeconomic development and determining the level of children's education, and those characterizing the level of social development and determining the need for health care and social security. The level of actual fertility is modeled as a linear function of variables in a main components factor analysis. Average monthly pay in the national economy (37.6%), the sold industrial production per person (13.8%), and the global agricultural production per person (13.2%) account for 64.6% of the variance. Among the social factors, findings indicate that a higher feeling of security is related to lower fertility, but economic factors have a stronger influence. Voivodeships are grouped as having low levels of economic development (24), as having high educational levels (24), and as having low levels of social security (24). Voivodeships with low levels of economic development and high parity include all the grouped voivodeships with the exception of three. Low-security voivodeships showed mixed patterns of fertility. High-education voivodeships showed a weak correlation with high fertility. Only three voivodeships have low economic and security factors and high education factors, and only one voivodeship has high fertility. Of the three voivodeships with high security and economic factors and low education factors, all have low parity.     

A comment on ‘social and economic factors in Hong Kong's fertility decline’ by Sui-Ying Wat and R. W. Hodge

The recent article by Wat and Hodge appears to make incorrect inferences about the relation of certain social and economic indicators (infant mortality, employment opportunities for women, and education) to Hong Kong's fertility decline, based on a multiple regression of these variables to the crude birth rate of Hong Kong for 1951–1967. Such modernization measures probably have at least a long-run causal relation to fertility decline. It is also possible that the family planning programme ofHong Kong may have added little to the effects, as the authors suggest. However, I do not believe that their multiple regression analysis establishes these conclusions.     

A comment on 'social and economic factors in Hong Kong's fertility decline' by Sui-Ying Wat and R. W. Hodge

Abstract The recent article by Wat and Hodge appears to make incorrect inferences about the relation of certain social and economic indicators (infant mortality, employment opportunities for women, and education) to Hong Kong's fertility decline, based on a multiple regression of these variables to the crude birth rate of Hong Kong for 1951-1967. Such modernization measures probably have at least a long-run causal relation to fertility decline. It is also possible that the family planning programme ofHong Kong may have added little to the effects, as the authors suggest. However, I do not believe that their multiple regression analysis establishes these conclusions.     

Fertility and development: evidence from Brazil

Using microdata from the Brazilian demographic censuses of 1960, 1970, 1980, and 1991, aggregated into 518 consistently defined spatial units called microregions, we estimated fertility and mortality and constructed indicators of development and living conditions in the rural and urban areas of the microregions in each census. We then estimated cross-sectional and fixed-effects models to answer questions about the degree to which changes in these indicators are associated with changes in fertility and whether the relationship between fertility and development shifts through time. We found strong and consistent relationships between the decline in fertility and measurable changes in social and economic circumstances.     

Economic development and fertility: A methodological re-evaluation

Summary Several studies in recent years have investigated the relationship between economic development and fertility, using the methods of multiple and partial correlation. Results from these studies have been interpreted to show that economic development, while directly tending to increase fertility, also gives rise to factors which inhibit it, resulting in an eventual decrease in fertility with increasing development. The present study re-examines the methodology and empirical results upon which this explanation is based and finds little statistical or empirical support for such a model. Subsequent statistical re-examination of the data from one of these studies reveals that the major independent variables in the model are largely redundant, and that the model is untenable in that it seeks to establish patterns of interrelation between what appear to be redundant constructs. The isolation of additional statistically independent variables is suggested to improve the explanation of variance in fertility in terms of its social and economic correlates.     

Approaches to the Fertility Transition in Victorian England

The secular decline of marital fertility which took place in late nineteenth and early twentieth-century England and Wales is considered by using a number of approaches. Among the theoretical approaches considered are those of transition models, and social diffusion. The former overemphasises the role of industrialization and urbanization; the latter is inappropriate when dealing with the development of a small-family ideal in Victorian society. Explanations of fertility decline using ecological and time-series analysis are considered. The registration districts of England and Wales provide the framework for analyses of spatial variations in marital fertility and its correlates in 1861, 1891 and 1911. A time-series analysis attempts to establish the sequential nature of social, economic and demographic changes during the sixty years preceding the First World War. The following points are emphasised in conclusion. The Victorian fertility transition was not directly related to the development of an urban-industrial society, the social diffusion of family ideals or the use of appliance methods of contraception. But its immediate cause was probably linked to the substantial increase in family planning literature available from the 1870s, and the challenge that this posed to the tradition of unlimited marital fertility. This critical change in social attitudes to family planning was facilitated both by developments in mass education and, ultimately by the decline of infant mortality.     

Values and fertility change in Japan

This paper analyses how value change and economic and social change have jointly affected fertility in Japan since 1950, and especially since 1973 when fertility resumed declining after some 15 years at near-replacement level. The resumption of fertility decline since 1973 has been driven primarily by underlying economic and social changes. Value change has tended to lag behind fertility change, and this lag has tended to be larger in Japan than in other advanced nations, primarily because underlying economic and social conditions have evolved more rapidly in Japan, and because it takes time for values to adjust to changes in underlying conditions. Because of Japan's high degree of cultural homogeneity, values tend to be widely and quickly shared, so that under certain conditions value change tends to occur in spurts. In Japan, many of the more important value changes affecting fertility in recent decades are bound up with major educational and job gains by women, which have led to greater economic independence and more emphasis on values of individualism and equality between the sexes.     

Marital Fertility Decline in the Netherlands: Child Mortality, Real Wages, and Unemployment, 1860–1939

Previous studies of the fertility decline in Europe are often limited to an earlier stage of the marital fertility decline, when the decline tended to be slower and before the large increase in earnings in the 1920s. Starting in 1860 (before the onset of the decline), this study follows marital fertility trends until 1939, when fertility reached lower levels than ever before. Using data from the Historical Sample of the Netherlands (HSN), this study shows that mortality decline, a rise in real income, and unemployment account for the decline in the Netherlands. This finding suggests that marital fertility decline was an adjustment to social and economic change, leaving little room for attitudinal change that is independent of social and economic change.     

影响朝鲜族生育水平的因素分析

中国朝鲜族育龄妇女的生育水平迅速下降,其影响因素是多方面的。因子分析的结果表明,计划生育政策 和经济社会发展对朝鲜族生育水平的下降起了一定的作用,但是,朝鲜族独特的传统文化起了决定性的作用。     

Economic motives for family limitation

Abstract Taiwan can boast one of the most rapid rates of economic development in the world over the past 20 years. Taiwan is also in the midst of the demographic transition. The nature of the connection between economic development and the onset and progress of the fertility decline is far from clear, however. Rather than explore the relation between income and fertility change, this paper will be concerned with some of the economic motivations which may be responsible for fertility decline during the demographic transition. Inquiries in this area have been handicapped by having to rely on aggregative or on household data which included only a very limited set of economic variables (other than income) along with demographic data. In order to re-examine the linkages between economic change and fertility change at the family level, a special survey was conducted in Taiwan in 1969. While recognizing that economic factors are not wholly, perhaps not even primarily, responsible for the lowering of the birth rate, the central interest of this paper is the complex of cost and benefit considerations which may contribute to a decline of the rate, using the new data for Taiwan.     

A quantitative study of the determinants of fertility behavior

Recent literature shows great interest in the quantitative study of the determinants of fertility. In a similar way, this study takes an across-country approach to specify independent variables, to separate economic from social and political variables, to make distinct comparisons of fertility responses in developed and underdeveloped countries, and to examine a wide range of hypotheses. The key is empirical analysis by separate regressions. This permits direct comparisons of countries at different levels of development, increases the probability of obtaining statistically significant regression coefficients, and standardizes the analysis for factors which vary with level of development.In this way, the authors determine positive and statistically significant relations between fertility and illiteracy, child mortality, proportion of agricultural population, proportion of nonfarm selfemployment, and overcrowded housing and show a negative significant relationship between fertility and communism. The study does not establish statistically significant relations, however, for population density, social mobility, substitutes for sexual intercourse, achievement motivation, protein in the diet, and religion.In general, the signs of the regression coefficients for the separate levels of development are the same as those for all countries combined. Any failure to attain statistical significance may be explained by small sample size and insufficient variation in the variables for separate levels of development.     

Fertility decline in Germany: An econometric appraisal

Summary A re-analysis of Knodel's data provides some new results for the fertility decline in Germany and a new approach to testing hypotheses about the demographic transition. Two formulations of transition theory are compared: one emphasizing the importance of changing social and economic structure for fertility decline; the other, the changing relationships between fertility and its determinants over time. To evaluate these formulations, multivariate time series cross-sectional models are developed. The statistical models permit the estimation of relationships both cross-sectionally and over time. As a consequence, the ability of the independent variables to explain cross-sectional as against temporal differences is evaluated. Industrialization, urbanization, religious composition, migration, infant mortality and marriage patterns satisfactorily explain the fertility decline once regional differences have been taken into account. Persisting characteristics of regional units account for much of the unexplained variance. Industrialization is the main explanatory variable of fertility decline in Germany. In the period considered, its impact on fertility increased substantially.     

A cohort analysis of the fertility of the July 1 People's Commune in Shanghai, County]

The survey was conducted in February-March 1981. The population of this commune at the end of 1980 was 18,608. The cultural and educational levels, economic condition, and work in family planning of this commune form a typical example among numerous similar communes in Shanghai County. The birthrate, natural growth rate, and average fertility rate began to decline in the later half of 1950s and reached the lowest level in 1974. The survey shows a delay in the marriage age. The fertility rate also dropped by 21.31% from 1963 to 1980. The average fertility rate dropped by 162.73% from 1963 to 1980. Among the women of childbearing age, 99% of them have a knowledge of birth control measures, 95% of them have used them before, and 78% are currently using them. All these figures show that the work in family planning in the commune has reached a high level by world standards. 3 factors which have a strong impact on fertility are: the economic and educational level, formation of population elements, and family planning work. A rise in the standard of living and improvement in education normally leads to late marriage and a decline in fertility. An increase in the number of women of childbearing age causes a rise in fertility. The population growth after 1974 is a reflection of this situation. The survey shows that the decline in fertility before 1973 was caused mainly by family planning work.     

The End of “Lowest‐Low” Fertility?

Total fertility rates fell to previously unseen levels in a large number of countries beginning in the early 1990s. The persistence of TFRs below 1.3 raised the possibility of rapid population aging and decline. We discuss the recent widespread turnaround in so‐called lowest‐low‐fertility countries in Europe and East Asia. The number of countries with TFRs below 1.3 fell from 21 in 2003 to five in 2008. Moreover, the upturn in the TFR was not confined to lowest‐fertility countries, but affected the whole developed world. We explore the demographic explanations for the recent rise in TFRs stemming from fertility timing effects as well as economic, policy, and social factors. Although the current economic downturn may suppress TFRs in the short run, we conclude that formerly lowest‐low‐fertility countries will continue to see increases in fertility as the transitory effects of shifts to later childbearing become less important.