低生育率背景下对人口转变的再认识——基于一个统一的分析框架

无论是传统人口转变理论，还是“第二次人口转变理论”及相关理论，虽能大致描述和解释过往历史特定时期或某些阶段的人口现象，但在理论解释力与发展进程之间的包容性上存在明显局限。生育率转变是人口转变的核心，并且它的转变是一个连续的过程。影响生育率的因素是多元而复杂的，这些因素在不同的自然状况和社会发展方式下尤其是在生产方式和生活方式及相关社会制度变迁下不断发生更替和转换，共同推动着生育率转变。纵观世界人口经济发展历史，生育率转变经历了五个阶段：低自然生育力、无有效生育控制力和较高生育率阶段，自然生育力上升、低有效生育控制力和高生育率阶段，较高自然生育力、低有效生育控制力和较高生育率阶段，高自然生育力、高有效生育控制力和较低生育率阶段，自然生育力下降、极高有效生育控制力和低或极低生育率阶段。实际生育率是自然生育力和意愿生育率在有效生育控制力的调节作用下选择与平衡的结果，同时还受到人口容量约束下的节育行为影响。中国目前已经处于极低生育率阶段，实现适度生育水平促进人口长期均衡发展，关键在于保护民族生育力，提高个体生育意愿，实现经济高质量发展。     

个人因素对不同阶段生育意愿的影响——基于CGSS2017数据的实证分析

本文基于中国综合社会调查(CGSS)2017年数据,运用多项Logistic回归模型,系统考查了人口特征、经济状况、健康状况三类个人因素对不同阶段生育意愿的影响.研究发现,不同阶段生育意愿的影响因素存在差异.在第一阶段(由没有生育意愿到意愿生育1个孩子),经济状况对生育意愿没有显著影响,宗教信仰、婚姻状况、已有孩子情况及心理健康等人口和健康状况因素显著影响生育意愿;在第二阶段(由意愿生育1个孩子到意愿生育2个或以上孩子),年龄、民族、户口、宗教信仰、教育程度、已有孩子情况、收入、住房面积、心理健康等人口、经济和健康三类个人因素均对生育意愿有显著影响.基于此,在人口特征不易改变的情况下,提高居民健康素质、提高居民收入或设置生育补贴、保障居民住房面积等是未来促进居民生育意愿,尤其是二孩意愿的三个政策方向.     

我国经济增长与人口出生率的计量分析

目前我国经济快速增长是否对家庭生育意愿产生影响,是当前较少触及的问题。国内大多数学者研究经济发展与人口增长之间的关系,而采用人均GDP与人口出生率指标分析经济增长对人口生育产生影响的研究却较为少见。研究得出,我国经济增长对家庭生育意愿确实产生了负作用;G ranger因果检验分析结果显示,经济快速增长的确是我国人口出生率下降的原因;并对二者进行协整检验,也显示出二者之间具有长期稳定的负均衡关系。     

乡镇人口生育意愿现状——以菏泽市乡镇人口为例

根据菏泽市乡镇人口生育意愿调查问卷数据,分析了该市乡镇人口的生育意愿现状.调查结果表明:菏泽市乡镇人口意愿生育子女数为1.54,低于更替水平;性别偏好不明显;意愿结婚和生育时间推迟;生育目的也发生了转变.据此提出:国家应在生育政策与生育权益、家庭保障间平衡统筹,进行适当调整.     

公共服务感知、家庭禀赋与女性二孩生育意愿

基于2015年中国综合社会调查数据,以结构功能主义为理论基础,基于生育行为的成本效用视角,分析公共服务感知和家庭禀赋对女性二孩生育意愿的影响及其地区差异。研究发现:公共服务感知显著负向影响女性二孩生育意愿,家庭禀赋整体上显著影响女性二孩生育意愿,西部地区女性二孩生育意愿高于东部地区。据此,提出提升公共服务质量以健全女性社会保障、改善女性家庭禀赋以减轻二孩生育压力、统筹资源优化配置以缩小地区生育差异等对策,以有效提升女性二孩生育意愿,从而实现人口稳定增长。     

中国人口转变的经济学分析

从经济上判定中国人口在本质上、内容上是否发生转变,就要深入分析中国居民中的绝大多数在生育意愿上是否发生了转变。而判定中国居民中绝大多数在生育意愿上发生转变与否。就须分析不同类型的居民的生育成本与生育收益的比较状况。当中国居民中绝大多数认为自己的生育成本≥生育收益时。中国人口就在本质上、内容上发生了转变,或者处于转变之中。因此。中国居民生育成本与生育收益的比较状况,应成为中国人口在本质上、内容上是否转变的简明判别式。     

从意愿到行为:育龄人群的"二孩"生育抉择——基于吉林省496位城乡居民的调查分析

为解决我国日益严峻的人口结构失衡问题,2015年我国政府开始实施全面放开二孩生育政策以来,吉林省并没有出现预期中的生育潮.为了解我省城乡居民的二孩生育行为及相关影响因素,我们采取问卷调查和深度访谈的形式对吉林省496名城乡居民进行二孩生育意愿行为进行调查.在对调查结果的统计分析中,重点选取社会地位、家庭内部因素、性别偏好和情感需求4个主要变量对"有生育二孩意愿但无生育二孩行为"的居民和"有生育二孩意愿并且已经生育二孩"的居民进行比较,结果发现在从生育意愿向实际生育行为转变的过程中,这4项因素均起到了不同程度的影响,但其中情感需求的满足超过了其他的因素,成为影响生育抉择的最重要因素.     

中国农村人口现状及生育意愿问题研究

农村人口动态、生育观念与意愿对我国乡村社会发展、国家长久稳定以及乡村振兴工作意义重大。我国农村地区人口呈现显著的下降趋势,且“少子化”问题加剧;大量育龄人口不断向城市迁移,导致农村地区生育潜力日益衰退;随着教育水平的提升和婚育观念的转变,农村人口的生育意愿普遍较低,且在不同地域、性别、世代间存在明显差异。在促进生育的多项政策中,农村育龄人口最为关注的是住房和养老政策、就业政策以及针对多孩家庭的生育津贴和推动教育公平的举措,表明农村人口发展政策的制定需要结合实际,充分考虑政策的适应性、阶段性、差异性等特征,以确保其有效性和可行性。     

二律背反:新生代农民工生育意愿的变化趋势及其政策启示

新生代农民工作为农民工的主体,绝大部分人处于婚恋和生育的黄金阶段,其生育意愿对中国城镇化发展和人口可持续发展具有重要的现实意义。通过纵向和横向对比分析,发现新生代农民工生育意愿具有明显的现代性特征。相对于老生代农民工而言,新生代农民工生育意愿显著降低,并趋近新生代城—城流动人口;其生育意愿的性别、婚姻状况、受教育程度差异等内部分化显著弱化。而且,基于城市适应理论视角,从经济适应、社会适应、心理适应、制度适应4个维度对其影响因素进行实证分析,发现城市适应对新生代农民工生育意愿的影响呈现代际显著增强的态势。经济适应、社会适应、心理适应程度的提高会显著地降低新生代农民工期望生育子女数。这使得中国城镇化发展与新生代农民工生育意愿降低的现象并存,存在城镇化发展与人口可持续发展之间二律背反的矛盾困境。而制度适应却能显著提升新生代农民工生育意愿,这为促进城镇化发展和人口可持续发展相协调提供了可能和路径。     

我国城镇居民生育意愿及其影响因素研究——基于近10 年文献的调查分析

近年来国家逐渐放宽生育政策以应对中国人口生育率下降等问题,但政策的实施未能达到预期的效果。生育意愿作为生育行为的影响因素而备受重视。通过对国内自2010年以来有关生育意愿的文献回顾发现,我国居民的生育意愿子女数近年来呈降低后趋于平稳的态势,意愿生育时间逐渐推迟,动机日渐多元化,部分子女性别偏好表现为儿女双全和无所谓的双峰态势。生育意愿受多重因素影响,经济因素尤其重要。基于综述以期在新的政策背景下展望未来,深入了解人们的生育意愿。     

Changes in Family Size Intentions Across Young Adulthood: A Life-Course Perspective

Recent years have witnessed a resurgence in the interest in family size intentions and ideals in developed societies, partially stemming from the idea that realized fertility in these societies is lower than intended fertility. This paper addresses the question of the stability of family size intentions. Based on Heckhausen’s life-span theory of control, it is hypothesized that young adults’ family size intentions are likely to change as a result of their experiences in the family and occupational life domains. To study this issue, data are used from a Dutch panel survey in which respondents are questioned on their family size intentions six times over the course of 18 years. The results show that family size intentions are not stable, but are adjusted as people age. On average, the adjustment is downward, but some people do not adjust their intentions or even adjust them upwards. Much of this difference in age patterns can be explained by changes in the partner, educational, and occupational careers of young adults. Not finding a suitable partner and pursuing a career—for women—are important factors. But also the timing of the fertility career itself is of major importance. If respondents postpone having children until their thirties, they are much more likely to adjust their intentions downwards than if they start their childbearing career earlier.     

路径与窗口——论刘若愚及在美国学界崛起的华裔比较诗学研究族群

多年来,华裔学者在西方学术语境下操用英语所展开的中西比较诗学研究,在美国学界崛起了一个重要的学术流派,即华裔比较诗学研究族群,其中首席学者就是刘若愚。不同于汉语本土的国别诗学研究,华裔比较诗学研究族群的学术目的,是为了把中国诗学准确地介绍给西方学者,也是为了使中国诗学走出单边的汉语学术语境,融入世界文学理论的家族谱系,因此这就决定他们必须把中国诗学汇通与整合到西方诗学体系中,以此使西方学者能够透过其熟悉的本土诗学理论作为沟通的路径和对话的窗口,来接受与研究中国诗学,所以他们所从事的比较诗学研究是在一种颇具相当难度的汉英诗学理论话语的转换中,使中国诗学思想及中国诗学研究走向国际学术界的。从某种程度上来考量,华裔族群的比较诗学研究所操用的是一种杂混的学术英语,其中浸润着来自于中国诗学文化传统的诸种信息,而对中国汉语学者来说,这些学术信息也成为中国学者步入西方诗学体系的路径与窗口。     

中国哲学合法性问题再议

自从中国哲学这一学科确立以来,学界曾就“中国哲学合法性问题”进行过多次讨论。就西方学者而言,其否定中国哲学 的原因在于以西方哲学理论模式为标准,衡量并排斥中国哲学。以傅斯年为代表的中国学者则是站在保护中国文化的角度来 提出“中国无哲学”的观点。笔者认为：不论中国哲学还是西方哲学,都是“哲学”这一“属”之下的“种”,中西方哲学既有其共性 又有其独特意蕴。面对“中国哲学合法性问题”,中国哲学的发展应在突破西方哲学理论的视域、发掘中国哲学的独特意蕴的 基础上,注重跨文化比较视域中中西方哲学的会通。     

中国哲学合法性问题再议

自从中国哲学这一学科确立以来,学界曾就“中国哲学合法性问题”进行过多次讨论。就西方学者而言,其否定中国哲学 的原因在于以西方哲学理论模式为标准,衡量并排斥中国哲学。以傅斯年为代表的中国学者则是站在保护中国文化的角度来 提出“中国无哲学”的观点。笔者认为：不论中国哲学还是西方哲学,都是“哲学”这一“属”之下的“种”,中西方哲学既有其共性 又有其独特意蕴。面对“中国哲学合法性问题”,中国哲学的发展应在突破西方哲学理论的视域、发掘中国哲学的独特意蕴的 基础上,注重跨文化比较视域中中西方哲学的会通。     

Preference Theory and Low Fertility: A Comparative Perspective

The discussion on the causes of the most recent fertility decline in Europe, and in particular on the emergence of lowest-low fertility, emphasizes the relevance of cultural factors in addition to economic ones. As part of such a cultural framework, the heterogeneity of preferences concerning the “career vs. family” dichotomy has been systematized in the “Preference Theory” approach developed by Catherine Hakim. This heterogeneity in preferences, however, has so far been underinvestigated in a comparative framework. This paper makes use of comparative data from the 2004/2005 Round of the European Social Survey to test the links between individual-level preferences and both fertility outcomes and fertility intentions, in a variety of societal settings. Results confirm an association between work–family lifestyle preferences and realized fertility in a variety of European countries, while they do not show a relationship between lifestyle preferences and fertility intentions. Results further support the existence of heterogeneous patterns of association between lifestyle preferences and fertility choices among welfare regimes.     

How are Time-Dependent Childbearing Intentions Realized? Realization,Postponement, Abandonment,Bringing Forward

Our study aims to identify factors that facilitate or inhibit the realization of fertility intentions. The analysis uses data collected in the first two waves of a Hungarian longitudinal survey. Fertility intentions recorded at the first wave pertain to the subsequent 3-year period, just similar to the behavior variable measuring the realization of intentions, i.e., a birth within the 3-year period in question. For this analysis, we used the respondents’ demographic, socio-structural, and orientational traits recorded at the first interview. Our findings show that age, parity, and partnership play a determining role in the realization of fertility intentions, but employment status, religious affiliation, and overall life satisfaction all exhibit significant effects. A marked gender difference was detected not only with regard to employment status but in the area of values and orientations as well.     

明清徽州妇女群体性节烈行为之主体性因素探究

明清贞节观念几近宗教化，而徽州节烈现象尤为突出。已有研究多针对明清徽州妇女崇尚节烈的外在原因。普遍忽略了其主体性因素。在明清徽州贞节妇女群体性节烈行为的表象之下，其实隐含了暧昧、复杂的动机，其主体性因素主要表现为：对贞节伦理的守护、对家庭责任的担当、对困窘生活的逃避以及留名传世的愿望等若干方面。内、外因素的共同驱动，遂使贞节观念彻底地深入徽州社会，成为一种潮流，明清徽州节烈妇女是宗教化的贞节观念的牺牲品。     

Sub-Replacement Fertility Intentions in Austria

Combining the data of the 1986–2001 Microcensus surveys, I reconstruct trends in fertility intentions across time and over the life course of Austrian women born since the 1950s. Young adults in Austria expressed fertility intentions that were below the replacement-level threshold as early as in 1986 and women born since the mid-1950s consistently desired fewer than two children on average throughout their reproductive lives. A two-child family norm, however, still clearly dominates the fertility intentions of different age, cohort and education groups. Uncertainty about childbearing intentions is rather common, especially among younger and childless respondents. Different assumptions about reproductive preferences of undecided respondents affect estimates of the mean intended family size. Although Austrians were among the first in Europe to express low fertility intentions, their position is no longer unique. By the early 2000s, young women in a number of other European countries also expressed sub-replacement fertility intentions.     

Choosing to Remain Childless? A Comparative Study of Fertility Intentions Among Women and Men in Italy and Britain

Pathways to childlessness may differ not only between individuals but also at the population level. This paper investigates differences in childlessness by comparing two countries—Britain and Italy—where levels of childlessness are high in comparison with many other European countries, but which have distinct fertility trajectories and family regimes. Using data from two large, representative national samples of women and men of reproductive age in a co-residential partnership, it presents a rich analysis of the characteristics associated with intended childlessness, net of the aspects associated with being childless at interview. Although childlessness intentions are generally comparable between men and women of the same age, results show a link between socio-economic disadvantage and childlessness for British men as well as the importance of men’s employment for childbearing decisions in Italy. These findings support the view that pathways into childlessness are gendered and highlight the importance of partnership context in the understanding of fertility intentions. Then, the level of childlessness at interview is comparable across the two countries. However, a higher proportion of respondents in Italy is only provisionally childless, whereas a larger proportion of British respondents intends to remain childless. Framing these differences in fertility intentions within the wider context of family and fertility regimes allows insight into the extent to which observed levels of lifetime childlessness at the population level might result from a specific combination of intended childlessness, postponed decisions leading to involuntary childlessness, or constraints affecting abilities to achieve intentions at the individual level.     

农民的社会经济地位与子女数量之间关系的实证研究

长期以来,学术界对于社会经济地位和生育之间是相互促进还是相互阻碍的问题一直存在着争议,为探讨当代中国农民的社会经济地位（家境）与生育行为之间的关系,从农民的家庭社会经济地位对亲生子女数量的影响和亲生子女数量对农民后来的家庭社会经济地位的影响两个角度,构建了理论模型,在2015、2016年分别对湘中和豫东农村1418、1416个户主家庭进行了调查,以各个家庭的子女数量为因变量,自变量分别为各个家庭当前社会经济地位、户主父亲以前的家庭成分、户主性别、户主年龄、户主受教育年限等,对这些因素进行有序probit回归和研究。研究发现,无论在湖南农村还是河南农村,家境较好的家庭子女数量也较多,反之,家境较差的家庭子女数较少;假定子女数量真的影响当前家庭社会经济地位,回归分析表明,子女数量对当前社会经济地位存在着正面的影响。研究结果表明,在中国农村“越穷越生,越生越穷”的说法不符合事实,农民家庭社会经济地位和生育之间是相互促进的关系,家庭社会经济地位在某种程度上的代际转移是一股强大的力量。