A Wald-type test statistic based on robust modified median estimator in logistic regression models

In this paper a new robust estimator, modified median estimator, is introduced and studied for the logistic regression model. This estimator is based on the median estimator considered in Hobza et al. [Robust median estimator in logistic regression. J Stat Plan Inference. 2008;138:3822–3840]. Its asymptotic distribution is obtained. Using the modified median estimator, we also consider a Wald-type test statistic for testing linear hypotheses in the logistic regression model and we obtain its asymptotic distribution under the assumption of random regressors. An extensive simulation study is presented in order to analyse the efficiency as well as the robustness of the modified median estimator and Wald-type test based on it.     

The S-estimator in the change-point random model with long memory

This paper considers two-phase random design linear regression models. Errors and regressors are stationary long-range-dependent Gaussian processes. The regression parameters, the scale parameter and the change-point are estimated using a method introduced by Rousseeuw and Yohai [Robust regression by means of S-estimators, in Robust and Nonlinear Time Series Analysis, J. Franke, W. Hrdle, and R.D. Martin, eds., Lecture Notes in Statistics, Vol. 26, Springer, New York, 1984, pp. 256–272], which is called the S-estimator and has the property be more robust than the classical estimators in the sense that the outliers do not bias the estimation results. Some asymptotic results, including the strong consistency and the convergence rate of the S-estimator are proved. Simulations and an application to the Nile River data are also presented. It is shown via Monte Carlo simulations that the S-estimator is better than two other estimators that are proposed in the literature.     

Fast and robust estimators of variance components in the nested error model

Usual fitting methods for the nested error linear regression model are known to be very sensitive to the effect of even a single outlier. Robust approaches for the unbalanced nested error model with proved robustness and efficiency properties, such as M-estimators, are typically obtained through iterative algorithms. These algorithms are often computationally intensive and require robust estimates of the same parameters to start the algorithms, but so far no robust starting values have been proposed for this model. This paper proposes computationally fast robust estimators for the variance components under an unbalanced nested error model, based on a simple robustification of the fitting-of-constants method or Henderson method III. These estimators can be used as starting values for other iterative methods. Our simulations show that they are highly robust to various types of contamination of different magnitude.     

Outlier-free merging of homogeneous groups of pre-classified observations under contamination

We study the problem of merging homogeneous groups of pre-classified observations from a robust perspective motivated by the anti-fraud analysis of international trade data. This problem may be seen as a clustering task which exploits preliminary information on the potential clusters, available in the form of group-wise linear regressions. Robustness is then needed because of the sensitivity of likelihood-based regression methods to deviations from the postulated model. Through simulations run under different contamination scenarios, we assess the impact of outliers both on group-wise regression fitting and on the quality of the final clusters. We also compare alternative robust methods that can be adopted to detect the outliers and thus to clean the data. One major conclusion of our study is that the use of robust procedures for preliminary outlier detection is generally recommended, except perhaps when contamination is weak and the identification of cluster labels is more important than the estimation of group-specific population parameters. We also apply the methodology to find homogeneous groups of transactions in one empirical example that illustrates our motivating anti-fraud framework.     

Robust ridge and robust Liu estimator for regression based on the LTS estimator

In the multiple linear regression analysis, the ridge regression estimator and the Liu estimator are often used to address multicollinearity. Besides multicollinearity, outliers are also a problem in the multiple linear regression analysis. We propose new biased estimators based on the least trimmed squares (LTS) ridge estimator and the LTS Liu estimator in the case of the presence of both outliers and multicollinearity. For this purpose, a simulation study is conducted in order to see the difference between the robust ridge estimator and the robust Liu estimator in terms of their effectiveness; the mean square error. In our simulations, the behavior of the new biased estimators is examined for types of outliers: X-space outlier, Y-space outlier, and X-and Y-space outlier. The results for a number of different illustrative cases are presented. This paper also provides the results for the robust ridge regression and robust Liu estimators based on a real-life data set combining the problem of multicollinearity and outliers.     

On some stepdown procedures with application to consistent variable selection in linear regression

The paper considers the problem of consistent variable selection with the use of stepdown procedures in the classical linear regression model and for the model with dependent errors. The stated results complete the results obtained by Bunea et al. [Consistent variable selection in high dimensional regression via multiple testing. J Stat Plann Inference. 2006;136(12):4349–4364].     

Levene type tests for the ratio of two scales

Tests for the equality of variances are of interest in many areas such as quality control, agricultural production systems, experimental education, pharmacology, biology, as well as a preliminary to the analysis of variance, dose–response modelling or discriminant analysis. The literature is vast. Traditional non-parametric tests are due to Mood, Miller and Ansari–Bradley. A test which usually stands out in terms of power and robustness against non-normality is the W50 Brown and Forsythe [Robust tests for the equality of variances, J. Am. Stat. Assoc. 69 (1974), pp. 364–367] modification of the Levene test [Robust tests for equality of variances, in Contributions to Probability and Statistics, I. Olkin, ed., Stanford University Press, Stanford, 1960, pp. 278–292]. This paper deals with the two-sample scale problem and in particular with Levene type tests. We consider 10 Levene type tests: the W50, the M50 and L50 tests [G. Pan, On a Levene type test for equality of two variances, J. Stat. Comput. Simul. 63 (1999), pp. 59–71], the R-test [R.G. O'Brien, A general ANOVA method for robust tests of additive models for variances, J. Am. Stat. Assoc. 74 (1979), pp. 877–880], as well as the bootstrap and permutation versions of the W50, L50 and R tests. We consider also the F-test, the modified Fligner and Killeen [Distribution-free two-sample tests for scale, J. Am. Stat. Assoc. 71 (1976), pp. 210–213] test, an adaptive test due to Hall and Padmanabhan [Adaptive inference for the two-sample scale problem, Technometrics 23 (1997), pp. 351–361] and the two tests due to Shoemaker [Tests for differences in dispersion based on quantiles, Am. Stat. 49(2) (1995), pp. 179–182; Interquantile tests for dispersion in skewed distributions, Commun. Stat. Simul. Comput. 28 (1999), pp. 189–205]. The aim is to identify the effective methods for detecting scale differences. Our study is different with respect to the other ones since it is focused on resampling versions of the Levene type tests, and many tests considered here have not ever been proposed and/or compared. The computationally simplest test found robust is W50. Higher power, while preserving robustness, is achieved by considering the resampling version of Levene type tests like the permutation R-test (recommended for normal- and light-tailed distributions) and the bootstrap L50 test (recommended for heavy-tailed and skewed distributions). Among non-Levene type tests, the best one is the adaptive test due to Hall and Padmanabhan.     

Simultaneous variable selection and outlier identification in linear regression using the mean-shift outlier model

We provide a method for simultaneous variable selection and outlier identification using the mean-shift outlier model. The procedure consists of two steps: the first step is to identify potential outliers, and the second step is to perform all possible subset regressions for the mean-shift outlier model containing the potential outliers identified in step 1. This procedure is helpful for model selection while simultaneously considering outlier identification, and can be used to identify multiple outliers. In addition, we can evaluate the impact on the regression model of simultaneous omission of variables and interesting observations. In an example, we provide detailed output from the R system, and compare the results with those using posterior model probabilities as proposed by Hoeting et al. [Comput. Stat. Data Anal. 22 (1996), pp. 252-270] for simultaneous variable selection and outlier identification.     

A ROBUST BAYES FACTOR FOR LINEAR MODELS

This paper proposes a new robust Bayes factor for comparing two linear models. The factor is based on a pseudo‐model for outliers and is more robust to outliers than the Bayes factor based on the variance‐inflation model for outliers. If an observation is considered an outlier for both models this new robust Bayes factor equals the Bayes factor calculated after removing the outlier. If an observation is considered an outlier for one model but not the other then this new robust Bayes factor equals the Bayes factor calculated without the observation, but a penalty is applied to the model considering the observation as an outlier. For moderate outliers where the variance‐inflation model is suitable, the two Bayes factors are similar. The new Bayes factor uses a single robustness parameter to describe a priori belief in the likelihood of outliers. Real and synthetic data illustrate the properties of the new robust Bayes factor and highlight the inferior properties of Bayes factors based on the variance‐inflation model for outliers.     

Outliers detection with the minimum covariance determinant estimator in practice

Robust statistics have slowly become familiar to all practitioners. Books entirely devoted to the subject (e.g. [R.A. Maronna, R.D. Martin, V.J. Yohai, Robust Statistics: Theory and Methods. John Wiley &; Sons, New York, NY, USA, 2006; P.J. Rousseeuw, A.M. Leroy, Robust Regression and Outlier Detection, John Wiley &; Sons, New York, NY, USA, 1987], …) are without any doubt responsible for the increased practice of robust statistics in all fields of applications. Even classical books often have at least one chapter (or parts of chapters) which develops robust methodology. The improvement of computing power has also contributed to the development of a wider and wider range of available robust procedures. However, this success story is now menacing to get backwards: non-specialists interested in the application of robust methodology are faced with a large set of (assumed equivalent) methods and with over-sophistication of some of them. Which method should one use? How should the (numerous) parameters be optimally tuned? These questions are not so easy to answer for non-specialists! One could then argue that default procedures are available in most statistical software (Splus, R, SAS, Matlab, …). However, using as illustration the detection of outliers in multivariate data, it is shown that, on one hand, it is not obvious that one would feel confident with the output of default procedures, and that, on the other hand, trying to understand thoroughly the tuning parameters involved in the procedures might require some extensive research. This is not conceivable when trying to compete with the classical methodology which (while clearly unreliable) is so straightforward. The aim of the paper is to help the practitioners willing to detect in a reliable way outliers in a multivariate data set. The chosen methodology is the Minimum Covariance Determinant estimator being widely available and intuitively appealing.     

Outlier identification and robust parameter estimation in a zero-inflated Poisson model

The Zero-inflated Poisson distribution has been used in the modeling of count data in different contexts. This model tends to be influenced by outliers because of the excessive occurrence of zeroes, thus outlier identification and robust parameter estimation are important for such distribution. Some outlier identification methods are studied in this paper, and their applications and results are also presented with an example. To eliminate the effect of outliers, two robust parameter estimates are proposed based on the trimmed mean and the Winsorized mean. Simulation results show the robustness of our proposed parameter estimates.     

Use of likelihood ratio tests to detect outliers under the variance shift outlier model

In this paper, we revisit the alternative outlier model of Thompson [A note on restricted maximum likelihood estimation with an alternative outlier model, J. Roy. Stat. Soc. Ser. B 47 (1985), pp. 53–55] for detecting outliers in the linear model. Gumedze et al. [A variance shift model for detection of outliers in the linear mixed model, Comput. Statist. Data Anal. 54 (2010), pp. 2128–2144] called this model the variance shift outlier model (VSOM). The basic idea behind the VSOM is to detect observations with inflated variance and isolate them for further investigation. The VSOM is appealing because it downweights an outlier in the analysis, with the weighting determined automatically as part of the estimation procedure. We set up the VSOM as a linear mixed model and then use the likelihood ratio test (LRT) statistic as an objective measure for determining whether the weighting is required, i.e. whether the observation is an outlier. We also derived one-step updates of the variance parameter estimates based on observed, expected and average information matrices to obtain one-step LRT statistics which usually require less computation. Both the fully iterated and one-step LRTs are functions of the squared standard residuals from the null model and therefore can be computed directly without the need to fit the VSOM. We investigated the properties of the likelihood ratio tests and compare them. An extension of the model to detect a group of outliers is also given. We illustrate the proposed methodology using simulated datasets and a real dataset.     

基于稳健Cook距离的时间序列异常值诊断

Cook距离公式常用于回归模型的异常值诊断,但由于公式中的样本方差■对异常值敏感,导致公式缺乏稳健性,使得诊断效果不理想。基于以上问题,文章选取绝对离差中位数作为样本标准差的稳健估计量,得到了样本方差■的稳健估计量,进而构造出稳健Cook距离公式;借鉴传统Cook距离的回归模型异常值诊断理论,将稳健Cook距离公式应用于时间序列异常值诊断,拓展了传统Cook距离公式的异常值诊断领域。通过选取模拟样本量分别为50、100、200,污染率分别为0、1%、5%、10%的ARMA(1,1)序列及金融时间序列进行实例分析,结果发现:(1)在无污染时,稳健Cook距离法与常规Cook距离法的诊断正确率均为100%,两者没有出现"误诊"现象;(2)在样本量、污染率同时增大时,常规Cook距离诊断正确率急剧下降,当污染率达到5%及以上时,已基本无诊断力,而稳健Cook距离法依然能保持较高的诊断力。稳健Cook距离法不仅能应用于时间序列异常值诊断,也能应用于回归分析的异常值诊断。     

基于稳健主成分回归的统计数据可靠性评估方法

 稳健主成分回归（RPCR）是稳健主成分分析和稳健回归分析结合使用的一种方法,本文首次运用稳健的RPCR及异常值诊断方法,对2008年我国地区经济增长横截面数据可靠性做了评估。评估结果表明：稳健的RPCR方法能更好的克服异常值的影响,使估计结果更加可靠,并能有效的克服经典的主成分回归（CPCR）方法容易出现的多个异常点的掩盖现象;基本可以认为2008年地区经济增长与相关指标数据是匹配的,但部分地区的经济增长数据可能存在可靠性问题。     

A robust Liu regression estimator

The least-squares regression estimator can be very sensitive in the presence of multicollinearity and outliers in the data. We introduce a new robust estimator based on the MM estimator. By considering weights, also the resulting MM-Liu estimator is highly robust, but also the estimation of the biasing parameter is robustified. Also for high-dimensional data, a robust Liu-type estimator is introduced, based on the Partial Robust M-estimator. Simulation experiments and a real dataset show the advantages over the standard estimators and other robustness proposals.     

A comparison of doubly robust estimators of the mean with missing data

We consider data with a continuous outcome that is missing at random and a fully observed set of covariates. We compare by simulation a variety of doubly-robust (DR) estimators for estimating the mean of the outcome. An estimator is DR if it is consistent when either the regression model for the mean function or the propensity to respond is correctly specified. Performance of different methods is compared in terms of root mean squared error of the estimates and width and coverage of confidence intervals or posterior credibility intervals in repeated samples. Overall, the DR methods tended to yield better inference than the incorrect model when either the propensity or mean model is correctly specified, but were less successful for small sample sizes, where the asymptotic DR property is less consequential. Two methods tended to outperform the other DR methods: penalized spline of propensity prediction [Little RJA, An H. Robust likelihood-based analysis of multivariate data with missing values. Statist Sinica. 2004;14:949–968] and the robust method proposed in [Cao W, Tsiatis AA, Davidian M. Improving efficiency and robustness of the doubly robust estimator for a population mean with incomplete data. Biometrika. 2009;96:723–734].     

Stability under contamination of robust regression estimators based on differences of residuals

A reasonable approach to robust regression estimation is minimizing a robust scale estimator of the pairwise differences of residuals. We introduce a large class of estimators based on this strategy extending ideas of Yohai and Zamar (Am. Statist. (1993) 1824–1842) and Croux et al. (J. Am. Statist. Assoc. (1994) 1271–1281). The asymptotic robustness properties of the estimators in this class are addressed using the maxbias curve. We provide a general principle to compute this curve and present explicit formulae for several particular cases including generalized versions of S-, R- and τ-estimators. Finally, the most stable estimator in the class, that is, the estimator with the minimum maxbias curve, is shown to be the set of coefficients that minimizes an appropriate quantile of the distribution of the absolute pairwise differences of residuals.     

Robust second-order least-squares estimator for regression models

The second-order least-squares estimator (SLSE) was proposed by Wang (Statistica Sinica 13:1201–1210, 2003) for measurement error models. It was extended and applied to linear and nonlinear regression models by Abarin and Wang (Far East J Theor Stat 20:179–196, 2006) and Wang and Leblanc (Ann Inst Stat Math 60:883–900, 2008). The SLSE is asymptotically more efficient than the ordinary least-squares estimator if the error distribution has a nonzero third moment. However, it lacks robustness against outliers in the data. In this paper, we propose a robust second-order least squares estimator (RSLSE) against X-outliers. The RSLSE is highly efficient with high breakdown point and is asymptotically normally distributed. We compare the RSLSE with other estimators through a simulation study. Our results show that the RSLSE performs very well.     

Outlier detection for multivariate skew-normal data: a comparative study

A general way of detecting multivariate outliers involves using robust depth functions, or, equivalently, the corresponding ‘outlyingness’ functions; the more outlying an observation, the more extreme (less deep) it is in the data cloud and thus potentially an outlier. Most outlier detection studies in the literature assume that the underlying distribution is multivariate normal. This paper deals with the case of multivariate skewed data, specifically when the data follow the multivariate skew-normal [1] distribution. We compare the outlier detection capabilities of four robust outlier detection methods through their outlyingness functions in a simulation study. Two scenarios are considered for the occurrence of outliers: ‘the cluster’ and ‘the radial’. Conclusions and recommendations are offered for each scenario.     

Transformed symmetric generalized autoregressive moving average models

Cordeiro and Andrade [Transformed generalized linear models. J Stat Plan Inference. 2009;139:2970–2987] incorporated the idea of transforming the response variable to the generalized autoregressive moving average (GARMA) model, introduced by Benjamin et al. [Generalized autoregressive moving average models. J Am Stat Assoc. 2003;98:214–223], thus developing the transformed generalized autoregressive moving average (TGARMA) model. The goal of this article is to develop the TGARMA model for symmetric continuous conditional distributions with a possible nonlinear structure for the mean that enables the fitting of a wide range of models to several time series data types. We derive an iterative process for estimating the parameters of the new model by maximum likelihood and obtain a simple formula to estimate the parameter that defines the transformation of the response variable. Furthermore, we determine the moments of the original dependent variable which generalize previous published results. We illustrate the theory by means of real data sets and evaluate the results developed through simulation studies.