On MLE of a nonlinear discriminant function from a mixture of two Gompertz distributions based on small sample size

The property of identifiability is an important consideration on estimating the parameters in a mixture of distributions. Also classification of a random variable based on a mixture can be meaning fully discussed only if the class of all finite mixtures is identifiable. The problem of identifiability of finite mixture of Gompertz distributions is studied. A procedure is presented for finding maximum likelihood estimates of the parameters of a mixture of two Gompertz distributions, using classified and unclassified observations. Based on small sample size, estimation of a nonlinear discriminant function is considered. Throughout simulation experiments, the performance of the corresponding estimated nonlinear discriminant function is investigated.     

Estimating mixtures of normal distributions via empirical characteristic function

This paper uses the empirical characteristic function (ECF) procedure to estimate the parameters of mixtures of normal distributions. Since the characteristic function is uniformly bounded, the procedure gives estimates that are numerically stable. It is shown that, using Monte Carlo simulation, the finite sample properties of th ECF estimator are very good, even in the case where the popular maximum likelihood estimator fails to exist. An empirical application is illustrated using the monthl excess return of the Nyse value-weighted index.     

Smooth estimates of normal mixtures

Posterior distributions for mixture models often have multiple modes, particularly near the boundaries of the parameter space where the component variances are small. This multimodality results in predictive densities that are extremely rough. The authors propose an adjustment of the standard normal‐inverse‐gamma prior structure that directly controls the ratio of the largest component variance to the smallest component variance. The prior adjustment smooths out modes near the boundary of the parameter space, producing more reasonable estimates of the predictive density.     

Approximate bayes estimation for mixtures of two weibull distributions under type-2 censoring

The main object of this paper is the approximate Bayes estimation of the five dimensional vector of parameters and the reliability function of a mixture of two Weibull distributions under Type-2 censoring. Under Type-2 censoring, the posterior distribution is complicated, and the integrals involved cannot be obtained in a simple closed form. In this work, Lindley's (1980) approximate form of Bayes estimation is used in the case of a mixture of two Weibull distributions under Type-2 censoring. Through Monte Carlo simulation, the root mean squared errors (RMSE's) of the Bayes estimates are computed and compared with the corresponding estimated RMSE's of the maximum likelihood estimates.     

Stochastic volatility in mean models with scale mixtures of normal distributions and correlated errors: A Bayesian approach

A stochastic volatility in mean model with correlated errors using the symmetrical class of scale mixtures of normal distributions is introduced in this article. The scale mixture of normal distributions is an attractive class of symmetric distributions that includes the normal, Student-t, slash and contaminated normal distributions as special cases, providing a robust alternative to estimation in stochastic volatility in mean models in the absence of normality. Using a Bayesian paradigm, an efficient method based on Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) is developed for parameter estimation. The methods developed are applied to analyze daily stock return data from the São Paulo Stock, Mercantile & Futures Exchange index (IBOVESPA). The Bayesian predictive information criteria (BPIC) and the logarithm of the marginal likelihood are used as model selection criteria. The results reveal that the stochastic volatility in mean model with correlated errors and slash distribution provides a significant improvement in model fit for the IBOVESPA data over the usual normal model.     

A monte carlo investigation of a statistic for a bivariate missing data problem

Testing the equal means hypothesis of a bivariate normal distribution with homoscedastic varlates when the data are incomplete is considered. If the correlational parameter, ρ, is known, the well-known theory of the general linear model is easily employed to construct the likelihood ratio test for the two sided alternative. A statistic, T, for the case of ρ unknown is proposed by direct analogy to the likelihood ratio statistic when ρ is known. The null and nonnull distribution of T is investigated by Monte Carlo techniques. It is concluded that T may be compared to the conventional t distribution for testing the null hypothesis and that this procedure results in a substantial increase in power-efficiency over the procedure based on the paired t test which ignores the incomplete data. A Monte Carlo comparison to two statistics proposed by Lin and Stivers (1974) suggests that the test based on T is more conservative than either of their statistics.     

A Bayesian Approach for Multiple Response Surface Optimization in the Presence of Noise Variables

An approach for the multiple response robust parameter design problem based on a methodology by Peterson (2000) is presented. The approach is Bayesian, and consists of maximizing the posterior predictive probability that the process satisfies a set of constraints on the responses. In order to find a solution robust to variation in the noise variables, the predictive density is integrated not only with respect to the response variables but also with respect to the assumed distribution of the noise variables. The maximization problem involves repeated Monte Carlo integrations, and two different methods to solve it are evaluated. A Matlab code was written that rapidly finds an optimal (robust) solution in case it exists. Two examples taken from the literature are used to illustrate the proposed method.     

A test statistic based on ranked set sampling for two normal means

In this study, we considered a hypothesis test for the difference of two population means using ranked set sampling. We proposed a test statistic for this hypothesis test with more than one cycle under normality. We also investigate the performance of this test statistic, when the assumptions hold and are violated. For this reason, we investigate the type I error and power rates of tests under normality with equal and unequal variances, non-normality with equal and unequal variances. We also examine the performance of this test under imperfect ranking case. The simulation results show that derived test performs quite well.     

Multivariate mixtures of normals with unknown number of components

We present full Bayesian analysis of finite mixtures of multivariate normals with unknown number of components. We adopt reversible jump Markov chain Monte Carlo and we construct, in a manner similar to that of Richardson and Green (1997), split and merge moves that produce good mixing of the Markov chains. The split moves are constructed on the space of eigenvectors and eigenvalues of the current covariance matrix so that the proposed covariance matrices are positive definite. Our proposed methodology has applications in classification and discrimination as well as heterogeneity modelling. We test our algorithm with real and simulated data.     

Semiparametric Bayesian classification with longitudinal markers

Summary.  We analyse data from a study involving 173 pregnant women. The data are observed values of the β human chorionic gonadotropin hormone measured during the first 80 days of gestational age, including from one up to six longitudinal responses for each woman. The main objective in this study is to predict normal versus abnormal pregnancy outcomes from data that are available at the early stages of pregnancy. We achieve the desired classification with a semiparametric hierarchical model. Specifically, we consider a Dirichlet process mixture prior for the distribution of the random effects in each group. The unknown random-effects distributions are allowed to vary across groups but are made dependent by using a design vector to select different features of a single underlying random probability measure. The resulting model is an extension of the dependent Dirichlet process model, with an additional probability model for group classification. The model is shown to perform better than an alternative model which is based on independent Dirichlet processes for the groups. Relevant posterior distributions are summarized by using Markov chain Monte Carlo methods.     

Precise Simulated Percentiles in a Pinch

A percentile point simulation algorithm is presented. The algorithm is useful when computer storage and time considerations are at a premium. The algorithm employs various time- and storage-saving ideas, including a “pinching” mechanism that reduces the proportion of simulated values stored as the number of iterations is increased. Algorithm output includes a measure of precision as well as the simulated percentile point. The simulation can be stopped when the desired degree of precision has been attained.     

Bayesian analysis of two-component mixture distributions applied to estimating malaria attributable fractions

Malaria illness can be diagnosed by the presence of fever and parasitaemia. However, in highly endemic areas the diagnosis of clinical malaria can be difficult since children may tolerate parasites without fever and may have fever due to other causes. We propose a novel, simulation-based Bayesian approach for obtaining precise estimates of the probabilities of children with different levels of parasitaemia having fever due to malaria, by formulating the problem as a mixture of distributions. The methodology suggested is a general methodology for decomposing any two-component mixture distribution nonparametrically, when an independent training sample is available from one of the components. It is based on the assumption that one of the component distributions lies on the left of the other but there is some overlap between the distributions.     

Minimally informative distributions with given rank correlation for use in uncertainty analysis

Minimum information bivariate distributions with uniform marginals and a specified rank correlation are studied in this paper. These distributions play an important role in a particular way of modeling dependent random variables which has been used in the computer code UNICORN for carrying out uncertainty analyses. It is shown that these minimum information distributions have a particular form which makes simulation of conditional distributions very simple. Approximations to the continuous distributions are discussed and explicit formulae are determined. Finally a relation is discussed to DAD theorems, and a numerical algorithm is given (which has geometric rate of covergence) for determining the minimum information distributions.     

A hierarchical Bayesian regression model for the uncertain functional constraint using screened scale mixtures of Gaussian distributions

This paper considers a hierarchical Bayesian analysis of regression models using a class of Gaussian scale mixtures. This class provides a robust alternative to the common use of the Gaussian distribution as a prior distribution in particular for estimating the regression function subject to uncertainty about the constraint. For this purpose, we use a family of rectangular screened multivariate scale mixtures of Gaussian distribution as a prior for the regression function, which is flexible enough to reflect the degrees of uncertainty about the functional constraint. Specifically, we propose a hierarchical Bayesian regression model for the constrained regression function with uncertainty on the basis of three stages of a prior hierarchy with Gaussian scale mixtures, referred to as a hierarchical screened scale mixture of Gaussian regression models (HSMGRM). We describe distributional properties of HSMGRM and an efficient Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm for posterior inference, and apply the proposed model to real applications with constrained regression models subject to uncertainty.     

Estimation of a discriminant function from a mixture of two inverse Weibull distributions

The classification of a random variable based on a mixture can be meaningfully discussed only if the class of all finite mixtures is identifiable. In this paper, we find the maximum-likelihood estimates of the parameters of the mixture of two inverse Weibull distributions by using classified and unclassified observations. Next, we estimate the nonlinear discriminant function of the underlying model. Also, we calculate the total probabilities of misclassification as well as the percentage bias. In addition, we investigate the performance of all results through a series of simulation experiments by means of relative efficiencies. Finally, we analyse some simulated and real data sets through the findings of the paper.     

Flexible modeling of conditional distributions using smooth mixtures of asymmetric student t densities

A general model is proposed for flexibly estimating the density of a continuous response variable conditional on a possibly high-dimensional set of covariates. The model is a finite mixture of asymmetric student t densities with covariate-dependent mixture weights. The four parameters of the components, the mean, degrees of freedom, scale and skewness, are all modeled as functions of the covariates. Inference is Bayesian and the computation is carried out using Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation. To enable model parsimony, a variable selection prior is used in each set of covariates and among the covariates in the mixing weights. The model is used to analyze the distribution of daily stock market returns, and shown to more accurately forecast the distribution of returns than other widely used models for financial data.     

Bootstrap confidence intervals in mixtures of discrete distributions

The problem of building bootstrap confidence intervals for small probabilities with count data is addressed. The law of the independent observations is assumed to be a mixture of a given family of power series distributions. The mixing distribution is estimated by nonparametric maximum likelihood and the corresponding mixture is used for resampling. We build percentile-t and Efron percentile bootstrap confidence intervals for the probabilities and we prove their consistency in probability. The new theoretical results are supported by simulation experiments for Poisson and geometric mixtures. We compare percentile-t and Efron percentile bootstrap intervals with eight other bootstrap or asymptotic theory based intervals. It appears that Efron percentile bootstrap intervals outperform the competitors in terms of coverage probability and length.     

Using unlabelled data to update classification rules with applications in food authenticity studies

Summary.  An authentic food is one that is what it purports to be. Food processors and consumers need to be assured that, when they pay for a specific product or ingredient, they are receiving exactly what they pay for. Classification methods are an important tool in food authenticity studies where they are used to assign food samples of unknown type to known types. A classification method is developed where the classification rule is estimated by using both the labelled and the unlabelled data, in contrast with many classical methods which use only the labelled data for estimation. This methodology models the data as arising from a Gaussian mixture model with parsimonious covariance structure, as is done in model-based clustering. A missing data formulation of the mixture model is used and the models are fitted by using the EM and classification EM algorithms. The methods are applied to the analysis of spectra of food-stuffs recorded over the visible and near infra-red wavelength range in food authenticity studies. A comparison of the performance of model-based discriminant analysis and the method of classification proposed is given. The classification method proposed is shown to yield very good misclassification rates. The correct classification rate was observed to be as much as 15% higher than the correct classification rate for model-based discriminant analysis.     

Time use of married couples: Bayesian approach

ABSTRACT

The living hours data of individuals' time spent on daily activities are compositional and include many zeros because individuals do not pursue all activities every day. Thus, we should exercise caution in using such data for empirical analyses. The Bayesian method offers several advantages in analyzing compositional data. In this study, we analyze the time allocation of Japanese married couples using the Bayesian model. Based on the Bayes factors, we compare models that consider and do not consider the correlations between married couples' time use data. The model that considers the correlation shows superior performance. We show that the Bayesian method can adequately take into account the correlations of wives' and husbands' living hours, facilitating the calculation of partial effects that their activities' variables have on living hours. The partial effects of the model that considers the correlations between the couples' time use are easily calculated from the posterior results.     

Model-based clustering,classification, and discriminant analysis of data with mixed type

We propose a mixture of latent variables model for the model-based clustering, classification, and discriminant analysis of data comprising variables with mixed type. This approach is a generalization of latent variable analysis, and model fitting is carried out within the expectation-maximization framework. Our approach is outlined and a simulation study conducted to illustrate the effect of sample size and noise on the standard errors and the recovery probabilities for the number of groups. Our modelling methodology is then applied to two real data sets and their clustering and classification performance is discussed. We conclude with discussion and suggestions for future work.